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World Agricultural ProductionMonthly report on crop acreage, yield and production in major countries worldwide. Sources include reporting from FAS’s worldwide offices, official statistics of foreign governments, and analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).
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Grain: World Markets and Trade
This monthly report includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in grains. Covers wheat, rice and coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, oats and rye).
- Current Report
- Past Reports (USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System)
Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade
This monthly report includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in oilseeds. Covers oilseeds (copra, cottonseed, palm kernel, peanut, rapeseed, soybean and sunflower seed), meal (copra, cottonseed, fish, palm kernel, peanut, rapeseed, soybean and sunflower seed) and oil (coconut, cottonseed, olive, palm, palm kernel, peanut, rapeseed, soybean and sunflower seed).
- Current Report
- Past Reports (USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System)
Cotton: World Markets and Trade
This monthly report includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in cotton.
- Current Report
- Past Reports (USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System)
The following GAIN reports were released on April 7, 2022.
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Canada: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Canola ending stocks are forecast to close marketing year (MY) 2021/22 at just 15 percent of the five-year average, driven by reduced yield due to drought and strong global demand for oilseeds. Assuming a return to average yields, canola exports are forecast to nearly double in MY 2022/23, driven by strong global demand for oilseeds and a rebuilding of exportable supplies. Canola yield recovery is dependent on vast canola-growing areas of Saskatchewan and Alberta receiving more spring rain and lessening current drought conditions. Six crush plant expansions and new builds are projected to bump canola crush capacity from 11 million metric tons (MT) in 2021 to at least 17 million MT by 2025.
Colombia: Food Processing Ingredients
Colombia is a net importer of many agricultural products and cannot produce the raw materials and ingredients to meet the growing demand of the food and beverage processing industry. Driven by Colombia’s economic performance in 2021 (i.e., 10.6 percent GDP growth), the food and beverage industry grew 7.7 percent in the same period. Consumer habit and preference changes due to COVID-19 altered the landscape for the retail, food industry, and food service sectors, opening opportunities for healthier and sustainable food products.
Cote d'Ivoire: CDI Seafood Report
The seafood industry plays an important role for Côte d’Ivoire 's national economy. In 2021, this sector accounted for about 3.2 percent of the agricultural GDP, resulting in a contribution of 0.8 percent to the overall GDP and generated $114 million in value. Demand for high quality seafood is high, creating an excellent opportunity for U.S. seafood suppliers.
Cote d'Ivoire: Cotton and Products Annual
Post forecasts market year (MY) 2022/23 cotton fiber production at 990,000 bales (480 lb.) The MY 2021/22 estimate for exports is unchanged at 1.1 million bales. MY 2022/23 export projection is 1 million bales, assuming the entire national production is exported. Annual consumption is stable at 20,000 bales.
Ecuador: Food Processing Ingredients
The food processing industry is an important component of Ecuador’s manufacturing sector. In 2020, the sector contributed $6.5 billion to Ecuador’s gross domestic product and grossed $11 billion in net sales. Excellent sales prospects exist for U.S. food ingredient products to supply this industry. This report provides a road map for exporters wishing to enter the market. It provides information on the key channels of distribution for food ingredients and highlights growing product segments including industrially processed foods, beverages, and edible fisheries products.
Egypt: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Marketing year 2020/21 was another record year for U.S.-origin soybean exports to Egypt. The United States, with 2.53 MMT in exports, was Egypt’s largest supplier of soybeans. Egypt’s soybean imports in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) are forecast at 4.0 million metric tons (MMT), up 400,000 MT from the MY 2021/22 estimate. Soybean meal consumption in MY 2022/23 is forecast at 3.5 million metric tons. FAS Cairo forecasts Egypt’s soybean, sunflower, and palm oil consumption for food and industrial use in MY 2022/23 at about 2.65 MMT, up 4.7 percent compared to the MY 2021/22 volume of 2.53 million metric tons.
Germany: Food Processing Ingredients
Following stagnation in 2020 and decline in 2021, the German food processing industry still cannot catch up with the growth dynamics of pre-pandemic period. According to BVE initial estimates, total sales of US$201.3 billion were generated across all sub-sectors in 2021, which is 1.6 percent lower than the previous year. A moderate increase in prices and rising exports somewhat softened this decline. However, the German food industry continues to struggle with subdued private consumer spending, results of COVID-19 related measures, and rising production costs, which are difficult to impose on customers. COVID-19 related lockdowns and physical distancing measures heavily impacted the German food sector, as well as shopping and consumption patterns of German consumers. The look into the future is mixed. Based on the latest survey conducted by the Federation of German Food and Drink Industries (BVE), the majority of companies expect stagnating results for 2022.
Japan: Japan 247th Food Safety Group
Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) proposed revisions to Japan’s maximum residue levels for 11 agricultural chemicals (Afidopyropen, Cyantraniliprole, Tetraniliprole, Picoxystrobin, Flufenoxuron, Pencycuron, Cyfluthrin, Ampicillin, Phenoxymethylpenicillin, Lubabegron, and Bacitracin) for various agricultural commodities. MHLW also proposed to exempt Abscisic Acid as a substance having no potential to cause damage to human health. Furthermore, MHLW proposed to designate Calcium L-Tartrate and Potassium Ferrocyanide as food additives. Interested U.S. parties are encouraged to submit their comments to PlantDivision@usda.gov for plant products and to TFAA.FAS.AnimalDivision@
Morocco: Grain and Feed Annual
The 2022 crop season in Morocco is progressing under difficult conditions. Dry and hot weather during January and February has driven production to record lows, especially in southern Morocco. Post forecasts MY2022/23 production at 1.5 MMT for common wheat, 0.7 MMT for durum wheat, and 0.6 MMT for barley. Low production for MY 2022/23 is expected to result in higher import demand of 6 MMT total wheat and 0.5 MMT barley.
Nigeria: Grain and Feed Annual
Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour. Nigerians are price sensitive especially regarding inelastic consumer products such as bread. Multiple stakeholder partnerships are making inroads into wheat production in Nigeria. However, these partnerships face serious yield and yield stability challenges. Meanwhile, resettlement programs for internally displaced people in the northeast are projected to positively influence increase in rice, corn, and sorghum cultivation while farmers access to their fields improve slowly.
Peru: Sugar Annual
Sugar cane production in MY 2023 is forecast at 11 MMT while cane sugar production if forecast to reach 1.32 MMT. Higher sugar prices are expected to encourage higher sugar output. The United States remains the main market for Peruvian sugar exports under the TRQ program.
Turkey: Livestock and Products Semi-annual
Post estimates cattle numbers in 2022 are expected to stagnate with 18 million head, including buffaloes, due to slow population growth rate, low raw milk prices, and an increasing number of cows being sent to slaughter because of high feed prices, despite government incentives. While feed prices have been steadily increasing, Turkish producers have been contending with low meat and milk supplier intermediary prices, which do not cover production costs. Post has revised Turkey’s livestock imports, which now are expected to increase 30 percent in 2022 totaling 340,000 head due to low cattle production in the country and a shortage of meat production. High food inflation on meat and dairy products continues. In 2022, beef consumption is forecast to stagnate because of the unchanging beef herd population and high market prices.
The Ukraine Conflict and Other Factors Contributing to High Commodity Prices and Food Insecurity
Executive Summary
A number of factors have converged over the last 18 months to send global agricultural commodity prices to near-record levels. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the potential loss of Ukrainian exports – was the latest development to push commodity prices higher. Other factors affecting global markets, which date back to late 2020, include: increased global demand, led by China; drought-reduced supplies; tightening wheat, corn, and soybean stocks in major exporting countries; high energy prices pushing up the costs of fertilizer, transportation, and agricultural production; and countries imposing export bans and restrictions, further tightening supplies.
As observed during the food price crises of 2008 and 2012, developing countries that are dependent on food imports are the most vulnerable to food insecurity. Such countries tend to respond to price signals by shifting consumption and trade patterns, while larger exporting nations respond by increasing production to meet demand. However, the geopolitical turmoil of a war between two major agricultural exporting countries, including the world’s largest fertilizer exporter (Russia), adds additional uncertainty and concern to today’s situation.
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Bangladesh: Grain and Feed Annual
Post’s marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 rice harvested area and production forecast is 11.75 million hectares and 36.32 million metric tons (MT), respectively. Local prices of rice, wheat, and corn hit record highs in March 2022 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine has increased volatility. Post forecasts MY 2022/2023 wheat at 7.5 million MT and corn imports at 2.3 million MT.
Dominican Republic: Food Processing Ingredients
The Dominican Republic´s food processing industry was valued at $10.6 billion during calendar year (CY) 2021 in activities categorized as “food industry” with an additional $3.2 billion for processed beverages and other products during the same period. Meat processing, wheat milling, bakery products, and dairy processing continue to lead food processing industry. The United States continues to be a strong supplier of meats, edible oils, fats, dairy products, wheat, and other key ingredients. There is potential for increased exports of these and other U.S. ingredients, especially since CAFTA-DR continues towards full implementation by January 1, 2025.
India: Oilseeds and Products Annual
India’s oilseeds production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) is expected to extend its momentum and reach 42.1 million metric tons (MMT), a one percent increase over the MY 2021/22 crop. Both rising animal feed demand and the anticipated growth in oilseed supply will further increase oil meal production by two percent to 20.7 million metric tons. Oil meal exports are forecast to rise 13 percent to 3.7 MMT. Notwithstanding current market disruptions, India is expected to continue its reliance on imported edible oils to meet domestic demand, and imports are forecast at 14.5 MMT, an increase of six percent over the current year estimate.
Japan: Oilseeds and Products Annual
In MY 2021/22, profit margins of Japanese soybean crushing surpassed those of canola crushing. Meanwhile, as hotel, restaurant, and institutional service industries (HRI) began to recover from the effects of the COVID pandemic, demand for soybean oil spiked as canola oil demand dropped with less home cooking than during the peak crisis period. The price of palm oil also spiked which made palm stearin oil for power generation unprofitable. FAS/Tokyo expects Japan will increase soybean imports but decrease rapeseed and palm oil imports. Japan has suffered from a general deflation since the mid-1990s, but global commodities are a notable exception which will be felt by Japanese households. As a hedge against future price hikes, vegetable oil users already have stockpiled vegetable oil products. Of course, this hoarding will result in softer consumption at some time.
New Zealand: Food Processing Ingredients
Despite being a small country, New Zealand is a major exporter of food and beverage products, and many of these products are manufactured in-country requiring inputs imported from other suppliers. The United States is a key source of ingredients including pork, lactose, tree nuts, hops and other products. The United States also supplies ingredients for animal feed.
Nigeria: Food and Agricultural Import Regulations and Standards Export Certificate Report
This report highlights all major certificates and permits required by the Government of Nigeria (GON) for exporting food and agricultural products from the United States to Nigeria. It also complements The FAIRS – Annual Country Report for Nigeria (2022). Post recommends that prospective exporters read both reports for a better understanding of Nigeria’s food and agricultural standards and requirements for export certifications and permits.
South Korea: Grain and Feed Annual
FAS/Seoul projects Korea’s corn imports and consumption to increase in 2022/23 to support anticipated growth in animal inventories, following an expected decrease in corn imports in 2021/22 due to the war in Ukraine. Korean wheat consumption in 2022/23 is forecast to decline 15 percent due to reduced feed wheat supply. 2022/23 domestic rice production is expected to decline 3 percent, after strong prior year production. Korea’s rice imports are consistently close to the 408,700 metric ton (MT) tariff rate quota (TRQ), due to exorbitantly high out-of-quota tariffs.
Thailand: Cotton and Products Annual
FAS Bangkok (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/23 cotton imports slightly larger than MY2021/22 in line with the global economic recovery and anticipated rising demand from key foreign trade partners. There has been a significant increase of imported cotton in MY2021/22 due to foreign customers’ pent-up demand for both textile and garment products from the previous years. Post forecasts imports of U.S. cotton to only grow marginally in MY2022/23 due to increased competition from Australian cotton.
Vietnam: Cotton and Products Annual
Despite ongoing high demand, Post estimates that U.S. cotton exports to Vietnam will decline by 25 percent in marketing year (MY) 21/22 due to price volatility, ongoing logistical challenges, and tough competition from Australia. Post forecasts Vietnam cotton imports for MY22/23 will increase 5 percent to approximately 8.2 million bales or about 1.78 million metric tons (MMT). The Vietnam textile and garment industry strongly recovered in calendar year (CY) 2021 with exports increasing roughly 15 percent to $39 billion. Cotton yarn exports totaled $3.3 billion, up 34 percent year on year, resulting in higher cotton imports. Post maintains its estimates for Vietnam cotton imports in MY21/22 at 7.8 million bales or 1.70 MMT, up 7 percent year on year.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
