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The following GAIN reports were released on September 3, 2026. _______
Brazil is the largest beef producing and exporting country in the world. Post expects decreased slaughter in 2027, due to the start of the reversion of the cattle cycle. Producers are likely to begin holding cattle from the market, driving calf prices upwards. Beef exports are forecast to decrease one percent in 2027, following reduced exports in 2026 due to trade restrictions from major trading partners. Domestic consumption is forecast to decrease, given reduced cattle availability and producers prioritizing exports, driven by strong external demand and challenges faced by foreign competitors. The swine industry is expected to decrease production and maintain flat slaughter in 2027 to readjust from a 2026 oversupply, driven primarily by productivity gains that outpaced demand. Post forecasts increased pork production and domestic consumption, as well as record exports in 2027. Chongqing, a major economic and logistics hub in Southwest China with more than 31 million residents and a 2025 GDP of RMB 3.38 trillion ($469 billion), offers growing opportunities for U.S. agricultural exports. Its strategic location and expanding logistics infrastructure strengthen its role as a gateway for imported food products into western China. Demand for high-quality imports is supported by Chongqing’s hotpot culture, growing premium restaurant and retail sectors, and food processing industry, creating opportunities for U.S. meat, poultry and alcohol. While competition and consumer price sensitivity remain challenges, rising incomes, premiumization, and growing interest in food safety continue to support market opportunities for U.S. suppliers. Post slightly lowered its forecast for MY 2026/27 cotton production to 7.12 million metric tons (MMT) or 32.7 million bales, a decrease of 5.6 percent from its estimate for MY 2025/26 production. The fall in production is due to recent policy shifts in Xinjiang which led to a smaller planted area, along with less favorable weather than was seen in MY 2025/26. Post revised upward its estimate for MY 2025/26 cotton imports to increase to 1.58 MMT or 7.24 million bales in line with trade data and the growing price spread between more expensive domestic cotton and lower-priced imports. East China, comprising Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, is a diverse dairy market, with consumption patterns varying significantly by province and city. Shanghai and southern Jiangsu are relatively mature markets for chilled and premium dairy, while Hangzhou and Ningbo have developed strong premium retail, e-commerce, and foodservice channels; Anhui and northern Jiangsu remain more price-sensitive and reliant on mainstream dairy products. Across the region, demand is shifting toward fresh and chilled dairy, lower-sugar and higher-protein products, cheese, and other value-added dairy, although domestic brands remain highly competitive. The region's large bakery, coffee, milk tea, restaurant, and food manufacturing sectors also support established demand for imported dairy ingredients. U.S. dairy products are present in East China primarily through premium retail and selected B2B applications, with opportunities varying by product, channel, and price competitiveness. On August 28, 2026, China's National People’s Congress adopted a revised Agriculture Law, effective January 1, 2027. Rather than representing a major shift in policy, the revision largely consolidates and codifies agricultural policies which are already being implemented, while expanding provisions related to food security, agricultural technology, environmental protection, rural development, and farmers’ rights. This report contains an unofficial translation of the revised law. Post revises India's marketing year 2026/27 soybean acreage and production estimates down due to erratic monsoon rains and farmer diversification toward cotton and corn. Post revises soybean imports up supported by favorable harvests among African suppliers. Soybean oil production is revised down on weaker oilseed output. Palm oil export estimates are revised up on stronger packaged exports amid price swings, while ending stocks are trimmed. Sunflower oil consumption and imports are both revised sharply up. Soybean meal production falls in line with lower crush, even as feed costs surge and poultry output contracts; consumption remains comparatively resilient. Soybean meal exports are projected to fall to a four-year low amid high domestic prices, tight supply, and shipping disruptions, while ending stocks decline accordingly. U.S. Census Bureau (USCB) bulk, intermediate, and consumer-oriented export data tracks U.S. agricultural and related products shipped directly to Poland. However, USCB data does not reflect the substantial levels of U.S. agricultural trade that arrives in Poland through Western European ports of entry. USCB reported U.S. suppliers shipped $386 million of U.S. agricultural and related products to Poland in 2025. However, as Poland's Central Statistical Office (CSO) measures trade by country of origin, it reflects both direct and indirect trade and is therefore more extensive. CSO reported Poland sourcing $888 million of U.S. agricultural and related products in 2025. Nuts and dried fruit, seafood, food preparations, whiskies and wines, tobacco, animal feed, and food additives were the top U.S. imported products. FAS/Warsaw encourages USDA cooperators, stakeholders, and other U.S. exporters of agricultural and related products to look beyond USCB data when considering market development strategies for Poland. The following GAIN reports were released on September 2, 2026. _______
Argentine beef exports in 2027 are forecast at 800,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE), marginally below 2026 volume. Beef production in 2027 is projected to increase to 3.14 million tons CWE, driven by a marginal increase in cattle slaughter and higher average carcass weights. Combined with growing beef imports, total domestic consumption is expected to reach 2.41 million tons CWE, 5 percent higher than in 2026. Brazil has raised its mandatory anhydrous ethanol blend in gasoline to 32%, a temporary measure designed to reduce gasoline imports and absorb the country's growing ethanol surplus amid rapidly expanding corn ethanol production. The biodiesel blend mandate remains steady at 15%, though ongoing testing under the Fuel of the Future law signals potential increases in the future. In August 2026, Brazil formally launched its sustainable aviation fuel program, establishing a book-and-claim mechanism and a certification system to ensure compliance with national air transport decarbonization targets, as airlines will face mandatory greenhouse gas emissions reductions beginning in 2027. In response to rising global oil prices, the Brazilian government introduced a series of fuel subsidies aimed at curbing inflation and reducing fuel price volatility. Meanwhile, the 18% tariff on ethanol imports, in effect since 2024, remains unchanged. Brazil’s cotton outlook for MY 2026/27 indicates a slight reduction of harvested area due to high production costs, price volatility, and weather related production delays. Record productivity is expected to partially offset this area contraction, resulting in only a minor production decline. Strong export performance characterized the end of the MY 2025/26 trade season, driven mainly by robust demand from Asian markets. Domestic consumption and exports in MY 2026/27 are both forecast to remain stable, supported by a favorable exchange rate and cotton’s recent competitiveness boost against synthetic fibers. Meanwhile, ending stocks are expected to decline as a result of a tighter supply balance, which could provide further upward support for cotton prices. Pakistan’s 2026/27 cotton harvested area estimate is lowered to 1.85 million hectares, primarily due to a decline in Punjab province driven in part by lower cotton profitability relative to alternative crops. As a result of this decline, the production forecast is lowered to 4.9 million bales (480 lb.). With domestic cotton use expected to remain relatively stable at 10 million bales (480lb.), the import forecast for 2026/27 is increased to 5.2 million bales (480 lb.) to meet the production shortfall. Turkish cotton production in Marketing Year (MY) 2026/27 is projected to decrease to 495,000 metric tons (MT) or 2.27 million bales due to smaller planting area; the planting area is forecast at 275,000 hectares (ha). Consumption is forecast to slightly decrease to 1.5 million metric tons (6.89 million bales). Cotton imports for MY 2026/27 are estimated to increase to 1,100,000 MT (5.05 million bales), with the United States losing its position as top supplier, while exports are forecast to decrease to 200,000 MT (919 thousand bales). Although the Turkish textile industry faces challenges, like reduced demand from key markets and adverse effects of an unstable local currency, it remains a crucial part of the economy. The industry continues to push for policy changes in sustainable practices and biotechnology. The following GAIN reports were released on September 1, 2026. _______
FAS Seoul forecasts continued declines in the Republic of Korea (ROK) cattle herd and lower beef production for 2026 and 2027. High domestic beef prices continue to support demand for imported beef but tight supplies from major suppliers will limit import growth. FAS Seoul forecasts a recovery in swine production led by improved sow productivity in 2027, despite temporary disruptions caused by animal disease in early 2026. FAS Seoul estimates pork imports will moderate in the second half of the year following a surge of imports in the beginning of the year. FAS Seoul projects sustained growth in pork consumption in 2026 and 2027, supported by price competitiveness and high consumer demand. For 2026, Post forecasts a modest rebound in Thailand's chicken production and exports in 2027. This recovery could be reinforced by a potential opening of the Thai corn market to non-ASEAN suppliers, which could lower feed costs by up to 8 percent, and by a possible increase in Thailand’s chicken meat market share in the European Union. Post projects a marginal downturn in Thailand’s broiler production, driven by lower export demand, rising operating costs due to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, and El Niño-related weather conditions. Thailand's high-protein milk market is booming and U.S. whey exporters stand to benefit. The ready-to-drink (RTD) high-protein segment grew 117 percent in just two years, from $73.4 million (20 million liters) in 2023 to $159.5 million (41 million liters) in 2025. Once a niche product for bodybuilders, high-protein milk has become a mainstream daily habit among urban Thai consumers, fueled by an aging population, rising health consciousness, and rapid urbanization. This makes it one of the fastest-growing segments in Thailand's food and beverage sector. The following GAIN reports were released on August 31, 2026. _______Shanghai has a reputation as one of the world's leading coffee cities. In 2025, the city surpassed 10,336 coffee shops, with per capita annual consumption reaching 106.14 cups, more than three times China’s national average. Delivery coffee sales reached $260 million, more than double that of second-ranked Beijing. The market has decisively shifted from price competition toward quality and craft, with localized innovations such as tea-coffee fusion drinks driving new product sales, while coffee shops increasingly serve as social and cultural hubs. On the supply chain side, Shanghai Port handles 28 percent of China's green bean imports, while nearby Kunshan produces approximately 60 percent of the nation's roasted coffee output. Saudi Arabia's food retail market increased to around $57 billion in 2025, influenced by rising incomes, population growth, and urbanization. U.S. retail food exports achieved a record $666.3 million in 2025, with an additional 22 percent increase in the first half of 2026. The demand for healthier, convenient, and ethnic food products is driven by a young population, increased workforce participation among women, and a significant expatriate community. Although there is competition from lower-cost suppliers and regulatory challenges, the U.S. retains a strong reputation for quality, which continues to create market opportunities. The following GAIN reports were released on August 28, 2026. _______On August 25, 2026, Canada announced counter-tariffs on $20 billion in imports from the United States, in response to recent U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada. U.S. products impacted by Canada’s retaliatory measures include dairy, honey, molasses, doughs and baking mixes, for a total import value of over $780 million in 2025 in agricultural products. Canada’s measures will be effective as of September 8, 2026. Additionally, the province of Saskatchewan announced a 50 percent levy on U.S. alcoholic beverages, also effective September 8, 2026. FAS Accra, Abidjan (Post) turned up the heat at Chicago’s 105th National Restaurant Association Show (NRA), orchestrating a high-impact commercial diplomacy win by escorting a Coastal West Africa Region (CWAR) buying delegation from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. This targeted matchmaking introduced regional buyers to the cornucopia of American food, beverage, and agricultural technology, sparking immediate demand for U.S. poultry, rice, vegetable oils, snacks, condiments, non-alcoholic beverages, and ice cream dairy bases. Weak 2026 southwest monsoon has affected sowing of most kharif (fall harvested) crops, particularly rice and corn. The Indian Metrological Department forecast below normal rains in August-September which will affect planting and yield prospects for most grains. Marketing year (MY) 2026/2027 rice production forecast is lowered to 147 MMT and corn production to 50 million metric tons (MMT) due to a weak monsoon. However, record carryover stocks from previous years will more than offset the production decline ensuring more-than-sufficient domestic supplies. Based on the latest official estimate, MY 2025/2026 rice exports are revised slightly lower to 23 MMT, and ending stocks raised to a record 58.5 MMT. Japan's Cabinet approved a plan to cut the consumption tax on grocery food from 8 to 1 percent for two years, beginning April 2027, while maintaining the dining-out tax at 10 percent. This would mark Japan's first consumption tax cut since 1989, fulfilling Prime Minister Takaichi's campaign pledge. FAS Japan anticipates a modest boost in food demand and a shift toward home dining. FAS Japan will continue to monitor market trends. FAS Nairobi is downgrading Kenya’s marketing year 2026/27 corn production forecast by 51 percent to 2.2 million metric tons after a severe mid-year dry period struck key grain production areas. This shortfall will force Kenya to import a record 2.3 million MT of corn. In addition, wheat production forecast is reduced by over half to 130,000 tons. Conversely, managed irrigation will keep rice production stable at 225,000 MT, though the country will still need to import 750,000 MT to meet demand. For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit www.fas.usda.gov. |
