IMF Blog:Sub-Saharan Africa's Growth Requires Quality Education for Growing Population

 

Dear MARIA, We just published a new blog—please find the full text below.  Sub-Saharan Africa's Growth Requires Quality Education for Growing Population (Credit: Alexander-Farnsworth / iStock by Getty Images) By Michele Fornino, Andrew Tiffin Demographic transition may be the biggest single opportunity for the economies of sub-Saharan Africa, but countries will only be able to enjoy the dividends if they make sufficient investment in education. The region’s population is poised to double to 2 billion by 2050. As the Chart of the Week shows, that expansion will be led by growth in the working-age population of those ages 15 to 64 that will outpace other age groups and drive almost all the increase. View the interactive version of the chart here. Sub-Saharan Africa has made notable progress in expanding access to schools in recent decades, but outcomes in the region still trail those in other emerging market and developing economies, as we explore in our latest Regional Economic Outlook.

IMF:Latin America's Shifting Demographics Could Undercut Growth

 

Dear MARIA, We just published a new blog—please find the full text below.  Latin America's Shifting Demographics Could Undercut Growth (Credit: andresr /istock by GettyImages) By Gustavo Adler, Rodrigo Valdés Read this blog in Spanish or Portuguese.  Latin America’s workforce grew by nearly 50 percent in the two decades before the pandemic, helping boost economic growth. Now demographic trends are turning, and likely to weigh on growth in the coming years. We expect growth in Latin America to average about 2 percent per year in the next five years, below its already low historical average. These projections are also considerably weaker than those for other emerging market economies across Europe and Asia, which are also expected to slow but still grow by 3 percent and 6 percent annually, respectively. This weaker outlook party reflects long-standing challenges of low investment and slow productivity growth. The additional challenge this time is that the demographics are turning, and the labor force won’t grow as fast as before. Turning Demographics Population growth will continue decelerating, falling from about 1 percent per year in the two decades preceding the pandemic to about 0.6 annually in the next five years. This is not necessarily bad news as a growing population does not automatically mean rising income per capita—the most relevant measure of wellbeing. Although a larger population means a larger labor force and aggregate output, it also means a larger number of people among whom output is shared. Still, growing the economy through a larger population can help in other ways, including by increasing revenues to repay high debt levels. More importantly, the demographic dividend is fading as the region’s population is

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Weekend Read Special Edition: Spring Meetings 2024
International Monetary Fund

The meetings bring together central bankers, finance ministers, parliamentarians and thought-leaders to discuss issues of global concern.

View as webpage


Dear MARIA,

In this special edition of the Weekend Read, we conclude our coverage of the Spring Meetings with a statement by the IMFC, a seminar on capital flows, regional outlooks for Europe, Africa and Latin America, plus a conversation with Türkiye’s finance minister. The Weekend Read’s regular analysis of global economics, finance, development and policy issues shaping the world will resume in a fortnight’s time.

FULL SCHEDULE




(Credit: IMF Photo/Lewis Joly)
IMFC Underscores Importance Of International Cooperation

Economic activity has proved more resilient than expected in many parts of the world, but medium-term global growth prospects remain weak, Saudi Arabia’s finance minister Mohammed Aljadaan said in his chair’s statement following the 49th meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC).

Unveiled at a press conference, Aljadaan’s statement stressed the need to achieve price stability, strengthen fiscal sustainability, and safeguard financial stability, while promoting inclusive and sustainable growth.

IMF:Why Our World Needs Fiscal Restraint in Biggest-Ever Election Year

 

Dear MARIA, We just published a new blog—please find the full text below.  Why Our World Needs Fiscal Restraint in Biggest-Ever Election Year (Credit: MoriMori / AdobeStock) By Era Dabla-Norris, Vitor Gaspar, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Jiae Yoo The global economic and financial outlook has improved in the last six months. Inflation has fallen, financial conditions have eased, and risks to the outlook are balanced. However, many countries continue to struggle with high public debt and fiscal deficits amid new challenges from high real interest rates and dimming medium-term growth prospects. Our latest Fiscal Monitor calls for governments to avoid slippages and focus more on rebuilding buffers and safeguarding fiscal sustainability over the medium term. Fiscal policy shifted to be more expansionary last year after a rapid improvement in debt and deficits in the prior two years. Only half of the world’s economies tightened fiscal policy last year, down from about 70 percent in 2022. Four years after the start of the pandemic, public spending, excluding interest payments, remained about 3 percentage points of gross domestic product above prepandemic projections in advanced economies, excluding the United States, and 2 percentage points above them in emerging market economies, excluding China. This spending level reflects the slow unwinding of crisis-era fiscal policies and the introduction of new support measures, alongside new industrial policy measures including subsidies and tax incentives. Higher nominal interest rates pushed up interest payments in most economies. Global public debt edged up to 93 percent of GDP in 2023 and remained 9 percentage points above the prepandemic level. The increase was led by the two largest economies, United States and China, where debt rose by over 2 and 6 percentage points of GDP respectively.

IMF update

 

Dear MARIA, We just published a new blog—please find the full text below.  Central Banks Must Remain Vigilant Along the Last Mile of Disinflation (Credit: grandfailure / AdobeStock) By Tobias Adrian A sense of optimism has pervaded financial markets in recent months, amid investor confidence that the fight against inflation is entering its “last mile” and that central banks will ease monetary policy in the coming months. Stock markets around the world have risen substantially this year. Corporate and sovereign borrowing spreads have narrowed. And major emerging markets’ currencies and capital flows have remained resilient, while several frontier markets have regained access to international funding markets. And yet, there are likely to be bumps along this last mile, as we show in the latest Global Financial Stability Report. Geopolitical tensions could intensify and weigh on investor sentiments. Strains in commercial real estate have become more acute, which could increase pressure on some lenders. China’s financial markets continued to be weighed down by ongoing problems in the property sector. Beyond these more immediate concerns, debt vulnerabilities continue to grow, with both the public and private sectors in many countries borrowing heavily, even though interest rates are still high and economic growth will likely not accelerate, as projected by the World Economic Outlook.

IMF Podcasts

 

(Photo: IMF Photo) IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva kicks off the 2024 IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings from the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC, with her customary curtain raiser speech. Go to IMF.org to follow the Spring Meetings and find all the IMF flagship reports, including the World Economic Outlook, the Global Financial Stability Report, and the Fiscal Monitor.   Listen to the podcast on: IMF.org | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Soundcloud | YouTube   Webcast and transcript     Thanks for listening to the podcast. We're always looking to improve your experience so let us know if you have any suggestions! Send your comments to me at bedwards2@IMF.org.   Bruce Edwards Producer, IMF Podcasts

IMF Podcasts

 

(Photo: Courtesy of Harvard University) Even optimal economic policies create winners and losers, and that’s where politics steps in. Trade liberalization is an example of a policy that can make a country better off as a whole, but what happens to workers who lose out to cheaper goods? Jeffry Frieden says while politics is often messy, it’s how society puts a value on things economists can’t measure.  Read A Place for Politics in Finance and Development   Listen to the podcast on: IMF.org | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Soundcloud | YouTube   Read the transcript     Thanks for listening to the podcast. We're always looking to improve your experience so let us know if you have any suggestions! Send your comments to me at bedwards2@IMF.org.   Bruce Edwards Producer, IMF Podcasts