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Stakeholder Notice: GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program Funds Available for FY 2027Washington, D.C., Oct. 7, 2026 - The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service is announcing that credit guarantees for sales of U.S. agricultural commodities under the Commodity Credit Corporation’s (CCC) Export Credit Guarantee Program (GSM-102) for fiscal year 2027 is now available. Further details of the announcements may be found at: https://www.fas.usda.gov/ \The following GAIN reports were released on October 6, 2026. _______
FAS/Canberra has revised its estimate for Australia’s sugar cane production in marketing year (MY) 2026/27 downward to 27.9 million metric tons (MMT), 1.8 percent below the 28.4 MMT produced in MY 2025/26. The reduction reflects very dry conditions across much of the cane-growing region from April 2026, after broadly favorable conditions earlier in the growing season. Despite the smaller cane crop, high sugar content in cane harvested to date is expected to lift sugar production by 4.4 percent to 4.0 MMT from 3.83 MMT in the prior year. Raw sugar exports are estimated at 3.5 MMT, up 34 percent from 2.62 MMT in MY 2025/26, supported by higher sugar production, elevated carry-in stocks, and improved world sugar prices. Irregular rainfall linked to El Niño is already affecting the crushing pace in Brazil's Center-South (CS), the country's main sugarcane-producing region. A few mills are expected to keep crushing into the off-season, but the region will still likely carry cane over into MY 2027/28 (known in Brazil as cana bisada). In the North and Northeast (NNE), the MY 2026/27 harvest began in September, and production should stay close to the historical average despite El Niño. Weaker foreign demand for sugar and lower world prices have led producers to shift their production mix toward ethanol, which lowers sugar export estimates. For FY 2027, the United States reduced Brazil's raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) allocation to 100,000 metric tons, raw value (MTRV), about 55,000 MTRV less than in previous years. For Marketing Year October 2026–September 2027 (MY 2026/27), sugar production in the Dominican Republic (DR) is forecast at 500,000 metric tons (MT), down slightly from 505,000 MT in MY 2025/26. The decline is primarily driven by expected El Niño-related weather conditions affecting key production areas. Production in MY 2025/26 also declined from 520,831 MT in MY 2024/25, as excessive rainfall during the early months of the harvest disrupted field operations, followed by the onset of drier conditions later in the season. For MY 2026/27, raw cane sugar exports are forecast at 200,000 MT, up from 190,000 MT in MY 2025/26, supported by expanded access to the U.S. market under the FY 2027 tariff-rate quota (TRQ). Total sugar imports are forecast to rise to 90,000 MT, up from 60,000 MT in MY 2025/26, as lower domestic production and declining stocks increase the need for imported supplies. EU sugar production in MY 2026/27 is forecast to fall sharply, as a record-low planted area and a severe summer drought deliver the smallest EU crop since the end of the quota regime. Exports are expected to fall by more than half, while imports increase and stocks are drawn down to help cover the production shortfall. Consumption remains broadly stable, although a gradual structural decline continues. The Inward Processing (IP) regime, which allows duty-free imports of sugar for processing in the EU when the resulting products are re-exported, was suspended for raw cane sugar refining in May 2026 for one year, removing an important source of sugar imports for the EU market. EU prices, which fell steadily through the first half of 2026, are expected to firm as contracts for the new marketing year are negotiated against tighter supply and higher world prices. Morocco’s retail sector in 2026 is still dominated by small traditional grocers, but there is steady growth potential for modern retail trade formats, particularly in urban centers, as consumer lifestyles shift and demand for convenience, variety, and competitive pricing expands. In 2025, U.S. exports of retail-related products to Morocco reached $270 million. Morocco imports limited volumes of U.S. pre-packaged dairy products, beef, sauces, and spirits. A surge in U.S. tree nuts primarily almonds exports are leading growth in retail and food service sectors, and a growing middle class and tourist sector is increasingly interested in convenient and healthy products. The U.S.-Morocco Free Trade Agreement is the only American free trade agreement on the African continent. This report contains updates to FAS Pakistan’s sugar outlook since the Sugar Annual report on April 20, 2026. Total sugar production for the 2026/27 season is unchanged from the last report at 6.91 million metric tons, slightly below last year. Domestic sugar consumption continues to grow gradually, driven by population increases and expanding use in food and beverage manufacturing. With sufficient production and carryover stocks, the export forecast for 2026/27 is increased to 500,000 metric tons. Post revises Vietnam’s soybean imports forecast upward due to projected higher crushing capacity from newly launched production lines. This supports higher domestic soybean meal production, while imports of soybean meal are revised downward for Marketing Years (MY) 2025/26 and 2026/27. For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit www.fas.usda.gov The following GAIN reports were released on October 2, 2026. _______
Australian consumers continue to prioritize value and convenience, driving a notable shift toward fresh produce, eggs, and private-label brands while trimming spending on premium dairy and red meat. To stay competitive against emerging discount retailers such as Aldi and Costco, major retailers are sharpening their focus on keen pricing, enhanced loyalty programs, and digital sales channels, boosting overall sector revenue through tech-driven efficiencies. Recent Australian Competition and Consumer Commission findings underscore growing market tension marked by household budgets being pinched by elevated food and beverage costs, while supermarket profits remain elevated even as supply-chain operators continue to struggle, prompting calls for greater industry transparency. Between January and August 2026, Burma exported nearly 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of rice, down 1.4 percent from the same period in 2025. The main reason was weaker June-August demand from China, a major buyer of Burma’s rice. Elevated domestic prices, weakening global prices, and foreign exchange restrictions further eroded Burma's rice export competitiveness, contributing to softer exports in July. Despite an ambitious 3 MMT rice export target for April 2026–March 2027 and a new Rice Export Zone program, Burma's domestic rice market remains under strain: rising paddy prices are squeezing miller and trader margins, supply shortages and speculative trading are driving up consumer prices, and flooding and financial fraud pose further risks to the sector. Colombia's retail food sector continues to expand, fueled by a diverse market structure and rising consumer demand for value-added products. In 2025, Colombia became the sixth-largest destination for U.S. agricultural exports, reaching $5.1 billion, a 16 percent increase over 2024. Mom-and-pop stores dominate the retail landscape, accounting for 46 percent of sales, while discounters follow at 19 percent. This dynamic environment offers U.S. exporters opportunities across packaged foods, beverages, snacks, dairy alternatives, premium products, specialty ingredients, and value-oriented consumer goods, particularly as Colombia's growing middle class seeks healthy, sustainable options. The European Commission authorized seven genetically engineered crops for food and feed use in June and September 2026: four soybean events and three maize events. Authorizations were granted on June 2, June 29, and September 23. Each authorization is valid for 10 years. Hong Kong’s food retail sector remained relatively stable in 2025, with retail food sales increasing one percent to $12 billion. During the first seven months of 2026, food retail sales continued to grow modestly by 1.4 percent year-over-year. Competition remains intense as consumers increasingly seek value and compare prices across local, online, and mainland Chinese retail channels. Major retailers are responding through more competitive pricing, expanded direct sourcing, and omnichannel strategies. Despite these changes, Hong Kong remains a mature, highly competitive, and import-dependent food retail market with opportunities for high-quality, differentiated, and competitively priced products. India's evolving trade and retail landscape creates new opportunities for U.S. food and agricultural products. The February 2026 U.S.-India interim trade agreement improves market access for tree nuts, fresh and processed fruits, wine, spirits, and other agricultural goods. This agreement builds on earlier tariff reductions that improved access for U.S. almonds, walnuts, and apples. At the same time, rapid growth in quick commerce is reshaping urban grocery shopping and expanding access to imported and premium foods. This report examines these market developments, key competitive pressures, and opportunities for U.S. suppliers created by changing trade conditions and retail channels. As reported previously, Indonesia’s Halal Product Assurance Agency (BPJPH) will require pre-shipment inspections for all halal products and those that must be labeled non-halal (e.g., pork and alcoholic beverages). BPJPH recently issued a new decree which outlines the standard operating procedures for pre-shipment inspections and notes that these procedures are required for shipments with a bill of lading date after October 17, 2026. The cost of the pre-shipment inspections has not yet been formalized. FAS Jakarta anticipates that all U.S. consumer-oriented products are subject to these requirements except for fresh fruits and vegetables which are exempt from halal certification requirements. FAS Jakarta continues to seek written clarity on these requirements and will provide subsequent updates as they become available. Indonesia’s large consumer base and evolving retail landscape continue to offer opportunities for U.S. food and beverage exporters. Grocery retail sales reached approximately $106.2 billion in 2025, while consumer-oriented agricultural imports totaled $9.2 billion, with the United States supplying about $439 million, or 5 percent. Convenience stores are expanding rapidly, while premium supermarkets remain the primary outlet for imported foods, including fresh fruit, meat, dairy products, snacks, and beverages. Opportunities are strongest for differentiated and premium products such as fresh fruit, beef, cheese, snacks, frozen foods, and condiments. However, U.S. suppliers face strong domestic and regional competition, tariff disadvantages against some free trade agreement (FTA) partners, complex import requirements, and mandatory halal certification for processed foods and beverages after October 17, 2026. The Malaysian food retail market is valued at US$ 27.5 billion in 2025, a robust figure driven by a competitive market landscape of retailers, and targeted strategies across multiple store formats including e-commerce. Malaysia constantly seeks international flavors, proving that geopolitical conflicts are not in any way a deterrent to the local tastebuds. The halal requirements for imported goods in Malaysia are stringent, providing confidence to Muslims, both local and international, when purchasing halal-certified goods. U.S. food and agricultural products continue to experience strong demand in New Zealand. In 2025, U.S. agricultural exports to New Zealand increased by 22 percent to US $626 million, reflecting rising demand for dairy ingredients, fresh and processed fruit, tree nuts, and feed products. New Zealand consumers continue to face relatively high food prices, which is impacting buying decisions and preferences. Grocery sector reforms and measures are facilitating the development of new retail outlets to support greater competition and lower cost for consumers. FAS/Wellington expects demand for consumer-oriented food products to continue to grow, creating opportunities for high-value imported food products from the United States. This report highlights significant opportunities for U.S. exporters of food and beverages in Panama's dynamic retail sector. Leading supermarket chains, hypermarkets, and independent specialty stores drive grocery sales, offering strong entry points for high-quality U.S. products. Panama ranks 31st among the top global markets for U.S. agricultural exports, reflecting a robust appetite for American brands. Panama is one of the most modern retail economies in the region, characterized by highly developed online grocery platforms and rapidly expanding food delivery services. The Philippines remains the top market for U.S. consumer-oriented exports in Southeast Asia with exports totaling $1.3 billion in 2025. Despite a slowing economy estimated at 4 percent growth in 2026 with softening household consumption, the country continues to offer meaningful long-term growth opportunities, underpinned by rising disposable incomes, urbanization, and an enduring consumer preference for U.S. food and beverage products. Although traditional stores still account for the majority of the market, supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience stores, and other fast-growing modern retailers provide an increasingly robust distribution network, further strengthened by the rapid expansion of e-commerce platforms. Key U.S. exports include pork, poultry, beef, canned soups and vegetables, snack food, frozen meals, milk, cheese, ice cream, frozen fries, condiments, sauces, seasonings, chocolate, candies, strawberries, apples, tree nuts, wines, and pet food. The five biggest companies in South Africa's retail food industry are Woolworths Holdings Ltd., Pick n Pay Retailers Pty Ltd., Spar Group Ltd., Walmart-owned Massmart, and Shoprite Holdings Ltd. When combined, they make up over 60% of all food sales in retail settings. Retail food sales in South Africa reached $55 billion in 2025. In 2025, South Africa imported $3.7 billion worth of consumer-oriented agricultural goods. Retail trade sales account for a significant portion of the country's GDP. Subscription services, omnichannel shopping (a hybrid strategy that incorporates product information and reviews), and healthier options in the fresh food and wellness sectors are all becoming more popular in South Africa's retail food business. Vietnam's food retail sales grew five percent in 2025 to $55.8 billion, even as consumers became more price-conscious. U.S. exports of consumer-oriented products rose ten percent to $1.3 billion, led by strong growth in tree nuts. Continued retailer investment and the growing shift toward supermarkets, convenience stores, and e-commerce signal strong opportunities ahead for U.S. products. |
