Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine

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Wednesday 13 April 2022

● General Secretariat of the Council   Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine More than 6 weeks into Russia’s war against Ukraine, think tanks analyse the origins of the Russian invasion and the pre-existing global divisions, the threat and impact of escalation, use of Russian propaganda, the war crimes being committed against the Ukrainian people, Ukraine’s foreign policy choices and its wartime information strategy, as well as assess the impact of the war on the EU’s asylum policy, its security framework and its enlargement agenda, and review the positions of Turkey, Israel and Africa. Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine 13 April 2022 Think Tank Review gsclibrary This is a non-exhaustive collection of Think Tanks reports on the invasion of Ukraine, covering the period from February 2022 onwards, which is regularly updated: 13.4.2022 More than 6 weeks into Russia’s war against Ukraine, think tanks analyse the origins of the Russian invasion and the pre-existing global divisions, the threat and impact of escalation, use of Russian propaganda, the war crimes being committed against the Ukrainian people, Ukraine’s foreign policy choices and its wartime information strategy, as well as assess the impact of the war on the EU’s asylum policy, its security framework and its enlargement agenda, and review the positions of Turkey, Israel and Africa. LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS) One month on in the Ukraine war: what role for the kadyrovtsy? This article discusses the role played by the “kadyrovtsy”, the personal army of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, in supporting Russia’s military aggress in Ukraine. The “kadyrovtsy” group, and other loosely integrated Chechen units, have previously conducted special operations on behalf of the federal authorities in Moscow in Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and Syria in 2015. INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS War in Ukraine, a punch on the international chessboard This article analyses the military invasion of Ukraine in the context of geopolitics, seeing the invasion not as the beginning of a new global ordering model, but one more chapter in the long-standing competition between great powers. What is new is the possibility of escalation in the conflict that could lead to direct confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, without any proxies. ILKO KUCHERIV DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FOUNDATION Ukraine’s foreign policy choices and responses to the Russian escalation This article considers the long-standing build-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and analyses Ukraine’s security options in the context of the war, acknowledging that it looks hard to find a solution that can bridge the differences of Ukrainian and Russian security perceptions. BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE Bargaining with blood: Russia’s war in Ukraine This brief applies the bargaining model of war to examine the origins, escalation, eventual termination, and long-term settlement of Russia’s war against Ukraine. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Ukraine: The shock of recognition The author provides a historical perspective, in particular harking back to the broad anti-fascist alliance from around 1933 to 1947, regarding various factors at play in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Ukraine’s wartime information strategy The article looks at the strategic communication policy applied by the Ukrainian authorities during the war and aimed at their own citizens, Russian society, and the international community. POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Russia’s wartime censorship and propaganda The author examines how the war against Ukraine is being used by the Russian government to transform Russia into a complete totalitarian state and the censorship and propaganda of military successes are tools employed to this end. CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Ensuring Ukraine prevails is now the only moral choice According to the brief, a successful outcome to the fighting in Ukraine is critical not only to Ukrainian statehood, but to the future security of Europe as a whole. That means the only way to secure Europe is to ensure Ukraine prevails – and is not subjected to a flawed and unworkable peace settlement that does no more than postpone its reckoning with Russia, while continuing the suffering of the Ukrainian people under occupation. COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS Can Russia be held accountable for war crimes in Ukraine? The author examines what war crimes have been committed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, how investigations might proceed, the role of the US in seeking accountability and the question of reparations. ZENTRUM LIBERALE MODERNE (CENTER FOR LIBERAL MODERNITY) Russland will die Identität der Ukraine auslöschen The Russian attacks on Babyn Yar and other symbolic places and cultural monuments in Ukraine are similar to the practices of the Soviet Union and, according to the author, show that by destroying Ukrainian culture, Russia is trying to erase Ukrainian identity. CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Justice in Ukraine may be slow, but must be steady As the world is demanding justice for the atrocities being committed in Ukraine, the author outlines how achieving it will take both patience and determination. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP The war in Ukraine raises new questions for EU foreign policy This article looks at how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted the EU to take unprecedented decisions on security, defence and EU enlargement and how it is also starting to shape the EU’s external action more broadly, opening new questions for Brussels and member states. LUXEMBOURG INSTITUTE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH The Ukrainian exodus calls for better coordination in the European Asylum Policy This policy brief analyses the current situation and give estimates of the number of refugees who could be distributed across EU27 destinations depending on their absorption capacities. POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Franco-Russian economic relations in the face of the war in Ukraine According to the article, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine will affect the French economy in micro and macroeconomic terms. The limited reaction of French businesses to the war shows that image losses remain a secondary issue while the risk of losing capital is much more alarming. STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK Perceptions in Turkey about the war in Ukraine In order to better understand Turkey’s position vis-à-vis the Ukrainian war, this article looks at how different actors both within Turkey’s ruling alliance between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the ultranationalist Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and those within the opposition relate to and perceive it. OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES) Wariergardzie Zachodu – Izrael wobec wojny (The rearguard of the West - Israel's attitude towards the war) Although Russia's invasion on Ukraine does not affect Israel directly, it is a huge political problem for this country. The article analyses the prudent position adopted by Israel, asking whether its balancing strategy will be plausible in case of possible escalation of the conflict. FRIENDS OF EUROPE Beyond Europe: the impact of the war in Ukraine on Africa This article analyses the reasons for the way African countries voted the way they did at the UN regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the effects that the war and the sanctions are having in these countries. EU sanctions against Russia 6.4.2022 Now almost six weeks into the war of aggression against Ukraine, think tanks assess the impact of sanctions on Russia, the risk of their effectiveness being diluted, the need for continued pressure with the implications of extending sanctions to Russian oil and gas exports, as well as providing provisional assessments of the political landscape, the Russian air campaign, and the likelihood of a chemical and biological attack by Russia. They also look at how China, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa are responding to, or are impacted by, the war in Ukraine. INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS Un mois de guerre en Ukraine: les premières leçons A month after the start of the war in Ukraine, the time for final assessments has unfortunately not yet come. However, a first provisional political assessment is particularly necessary because the conflict is at a time of uncertainty and therefore of tipping point. Indeed, as the author points out, the fate of Ukraine, the place of Russia and the security of Europe are at stake and the armed conflict has not yet decided anything. INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Quelle campagne aérienne au-dessus de l’Ukraine ? Premiers éléments de réflexion The Russian air campaign in the war against Ukraine is relatively weak and messy. What are the reasons behind the lack of Russian air superiority? This briefing provides the first elements of analysis. CHATHAM HOUSE Ukraine: Is a chemical or biological attack likely ? This article explores key questions about chemical and biological weapons, including when and how they might be used by Russia and the role of disinformation, concluding that although large-scale use in Ukraine appears unlikely, concerns remain about targeted attacks. CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Considering the No-Fly Zone prospects in Ukraine In light of Russia’s ongoing aggression across much of Ukraine and the growing number of civilian casualties and refugees, there is increasing pressure for the United States and NATO to create a no-fly zone over portions of Ukraine. The authors outline the need for policymakers to be clear-eyed in their understanding of the tactical challenges, the desired end state, and escalation risks of any form of a no-fly zone. LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE La relance de la défense européenne et le conflit en Ukraine: dynamiques et paradoxes The article deals with the future vision of European defence, its dynamics and paradoxes, including the role of the USA and NATO for European security as well as implications of the current situation in Ukraine. It also develops a future defence scenario in Europe which could involve the establishment of collective European defence forces at the same time showing possible restraints and problems arising from this idea. FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA ¿Cómo afecta la guerra de Ucrania a las economías europeas? Algunos indicadores preliminares This analysis provides some relevant data to quantify the economic shock that Ukraine's conflict means to Spain and the rest of EU member states. There are three main factors: energy dependence on Russia; the importance of the country as an export market; and the effects of higher import prices on the economy. REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE) ¿Puede resistir las sanciones la economía rusa? The article considers that sanctions from the West will cause damage to the Russian economy, but maybe not enough to stop Putin, since the economy has become very resistant over the years. It claims the only option the West has is putting even more pressure on, including by extending sanctions to the energy sector, since it is only the Russian people who can stop Putin. TERRA NOVA L’heure des sanctions économiques a sonné The countries of the European Union have not remained passive in the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine. This paper questions whether by focusing their response on economic sanctions, have they chosen an effective lever and what damage the EU member states are willing to bear to stop the Russian offensive. BRUEGEL The decoupling of Russia: high-tech goods and components According to this article, sanctions on high-tech goods supplies, combined with financial sanctions and other restrictions, will deprive Russia of a future as a modern economy. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG China can only offer an immediate respite for the Russian economy The unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine are likely to have devastating consequences for the Russian economy and beyond. This article points out that how devastating they can be depends on several factors, starting with how porous such sanctions might end up being. The elephant in the room regarding Russia’s ability to bypass or, at very least, mitigate the sanctions is China. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Sanctions against Russia – What can we learn from the past? The European Union and its allies have been implementing several rounds of sanctions against Russia in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. This blog post assesses experiences with sanctions from the past and provides a brief overview of economic costs, reasons that sanctions fail, and implications in the current case of Russia. EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE Lessons from the Ukrainian cyber front The author of the commentary discusses the issue of cybersecurity and cyber attacks in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. In view of the current situation, the text includes a number of lessons that can be drawn and offers suggestions for the developing EU cyber policy. CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF DEMOCRACY EU energy and climate security strategy to counter the Russian aggression in Europe According to this policy brief, the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the resulting energy and geopolitical crisis have clearly demonstrated that accommodating Russia is no longer defensible. The most effective way to stop the Kremlin’s aggression is for Europe to ban oil and gas imports from Russia that could cripple the Russian economy in 8 to 11 months. This would need to be accompanied by emergency measures to protect vulnerable consumers and alleviate Europe’s critical vulnerabilities before the next heating season. CARNEGIE EUROPE Ukraine’s EU Membership and the geostrategy of democratic self-preservation According to this article, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine requires the EU to upgrade its Eastern Partnership policy framework from non-committal to geostrategic. Offering Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine membership perspective would not only support the EU’s rhetoric of shoring up sovereignty but also defend democracy. LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE Strategies for order in a disorderly world This strategic update clarifies the terms of the debates between realism and liberalism, in view of the Russian invasion in Ukraine. It suggests that in a disorderly world, neither realism nor liberal internationalism offers a sufficient path to a stable international order, because of their respective exaggerated claims. CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS) Russian Analytical Digest No 281: Political Regime Stability / Universities / Agriculture The topics of this issue discuss the political regime stability in Russia, the reliability of Russian opinion polls, the impact of the war on Russian agriculture and Russian universities. CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES Can the war in Ukraine revive the EU’s enlargement agenda for the Western Balkans? This paper asks, even if the EU does grant candidate status to Ukraine, as well as Moldova and Georgia, where this leaves the Western Balkans and their long journey towards the EU which began over 20 years ago. It also considers what impact the current crisis will have on the EU’s enlargement agenda over the coming months. INSTITUT MONTAIGNE China Trends #12 - Ukraine: China’s "Rock-Solid" Pro-Russia Narrative This paper assesses how the Chinese press are analyzing the war in Ukraine. It notes the large elements of convergence among literally all published analyses and opinions, but also points to some nuances and different accents, sometimes even within the same writing. REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE) América Latina y la invasión de Ucrania: su incidencia en la economía, la geopolítica y la política interna Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, far from being a stranger to Latin America, so far removed from the European scene, has had a direct impact in at least three fields. This article analyses all three fields: the economy; the global dispute for the control and access to energy resources; and the internal political situation of the countries concerned. CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE What the Russian war in Ukraine means for the Middle East This paper looks at how countries across the Middle East and North Africa are responding to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Citizens are feeling the impacts of the war in Europe on their food security, energy prices, and job markets. Regional governments are hedging their bets between Russia and the U.S.-led Western camp, playing on time to better evaluate the impacts of the war and to ease the restraints it is imposing on the fragile economies and social fabrics of the region. 30.3.2022 Almost five weeks after the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks analyse the complexities of the war, including the threat of nuclear weapons, the consequences for the global economy with the risk of a global food shortage, the EU’s energy dilemma, the plight of Ukrainian refugees and the EU’s response, the implications of the war for different countries and their relations with the EU, and the need for a plan for rebuilding Ukraine after the war. BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Europe should avoid two traps as it confronts war in Ukraine The author warns of two dangers for Europe in the context of the invasion of Ukraine: framing the war in civilisational terms and weaponizing multilateral economic institutions. The result could lead to a new Fortress Europe far from the original EU project. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Russia and Ukraine: talking while fighting The author assesses the progress of talks between Russia and Ukraine. CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Rebuilding Ukraine after the war Though war in Ukraine is still in full force, the author argues the need for the Ukrainian government to already envisage and plan the recovery of its war devastated country. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Will Russia use nuclear weapons in Ukraine? The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the nuclear context provided by President Putin has immediately returned the subject of nuclear deterrence to the agenda. This article considers the question of whether the nuclear taboo will be broken for the first time in 77 years, or whether the balance of nuclear deterrence will be maintained? NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - CLINGENDAEL (NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) Five questions on Western military support to Ukraine A military analyst answers some of the most urgent questions on Western military support to Ukraine. Could this support stop or repel the Russian invasion? To what extent is this support a form of direct involvement? Could it lead to a proxy war? INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Intelligence and the war in Ukraine: the limited power of public disclosure The war in Ukraine marks a new climax in the public use of intelligence by states. This article considers the impact of intelligence information and assessments revealed by the United States, the UK, and even the government of Ukraine about Russia’s intentions and plans before and during the invasion. INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Invasion russe de l’Ukraine : une rupture politico-stratégique? Eight years after deploying an integral indirect strategy against Kiev, both military and non-military, the launch of this war by Russia may have seemed paradoxical insofar as the Russian political elites have, for thirty years, conceptualized and favoured the circumvention of the inter-state armed struggle to achieve political objectives considered vital. BRUEGEL The decoupling of Russia: software, media and online services According to this blog post, restrictions so far on software, media and online services in Russia have been imposed either voluntarily by firms, or else by Russia itself in order to restrict the flow of information. CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS) Russian Analytical Digest No. 280: Sanctions against Russia; Russia’s War in Ukraine on Social Media This issue looks into the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and highlights the so-called Fortress Russia strategy. In addition, the contributions discuss the role of social media platforms such as TikTok and VK and their potential for misinformation and the risks its users may face. OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH - CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW) Dyktatura wojenna: władza i społeczeństwo w Rosji (A military dictatorship: the authorities and the society in Russia) Although there are no credible sociological data on the public mood in Russia, the level of support for or passive acceptance of "the special operation" is rather high. Considering the information blockade, the propaganda offensive and Russia's elite attitudes, this article claims that the deepening isolation of Russia will be accompanied by a neo-totalitarian internal policy. KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG Die Sozialen Medien im Ukrainekrieg : Militärische Aufklärung und der Kampf um die Deutungshoheit Military and ideological conflicts have been conducted for years via social media. This article points to a new phenomenon of warfare in Ukraine. Private individuals and Ukrainian soldiers use mobile phones to record troop movements, destroyed military equipment, bombings and spread them on social media. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Die religiöse Dimension des Krieges in der Ukraine und die globalen Konsequenzen The religious dimension of the war in Ukraine has mainly been discussed among theologists. The article comments on the extent of the ideologic involvement of the Russian orthodox church in the war and the global consequences of the politics of the Russian orthodox church. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG From ambiguity to adaptation: how to shift gears in EU-Ukrainian relations The article discusses possible ways for Ukraine to join the EU, among them a multi-staged accession. BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS La crisis humanitaria de Ucrania debe forzar avances inesperados en el sistema de asilo europeo The article argues that the Ukrainian refugee crisis is putting the Common European Asylum System (CEAS) to the test. The high level of consensus and the current position of traditionally more reticent countries opens up new possibilities for rapid progress on agreements within the Pact on Migration and Asylum to reform the CEAS. HERTIE SCHOOL – JACQUES DELORS CENTRE Ukraine‘s refugee plight - A paradigm shift for the EU’s asylum policy? The policy brief discusses why a mechanism for the fair sharing of responsibility is urgently needed and outlines what such a scheme could look like. INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS The Ukraine conflict, the largest European diaspora of the twenty first century? The invasion of Ukraine launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin is the first major aggression in Europe since World War II. It has consequently caused the largest exodus of refugees. The author expresses concern about how long the European protection to these refugees will last and if it will become a humanitarian crisis. LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE Guerre en Ukraine: la population, otage d’une nouvelle stratégie russe de«pourrissement» ? This article focuses on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequences the armed conflict has on the Ukrainian civilian population. It discusses issues related to Ukrainian massive migration in the face of the armed conflict and analyses how the migratory flows in general seem to be have been used by Putin to achieve his objective of destabilizing and causing chaos in Europe. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Putin’s war and the EU’s response – How European Member States have united to help refugees The article gives an overview of how European member states have reacted to the recent influx of Ukrainian refugees. It briefly discusses the implementation of the temporary protection directive and questions whether the current situation could lead to a comprehensive reform of the Common European Asylum System. STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (SWP) Flucht aus der Ukraine: Mobilität erhalten und langfristig denken! The EU has activated the Temporary Protection Directive for the first time in response to the largest movement of refugees since the Second World War. This article considers what the next steps should be for dealing with the influx of refugees from Ukraine. OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH - CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW) Gospodarcze skutki wojny: widmo głębokiego kryzysu w Rosji (The economic consequences of the war: a looming crisis in Russia) The article outlines the sanctions imposed on Russia so far, describes the reaction of Kremlin and the first consequences of the measures. CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES Sanction-proof or sanction-hit : how can the EU make Putin’s evil war even more costly The EU, together with its allies, has shown impressive unity in imposing severe sanctions against Russia. This Policy Insight reviews the EU’s sanctions against Russia and looks at the possibilities to increase their effectiveness, drawing upon lessons learned in the past. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG How the war against Ukraine can change the global economy The analysts present five central consequences of the Russian war on Ukraine for global economic relations in the coming years: economic dependencies will be reduced, geopolitical considerations will increasingly shape foreign trade relations, there will be a threat of a bifurcation of the global economy, digitalization will shorten the global value chain, the attractiveness of the ecological transformation is accelerated. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Die Rückkehr der Knappheit Important factors in the global economy have long since changed and these changes have been magnified by Putin’s war on Ukraine. This article examines the challenges which economic policy in particular will be facing, including factors relating to scarcity of food. TERRA NOVA Guerre en Ukraine : comment sauver la sécurité alimentaire sans sacrifier la transition agroécologique ? Russia's war on Ukraine risks causing a global food shortage. To avoid this, the authors question whether Europe should reverse its agricultural strategy in order to rapidly increase production and yields. In other words, should ecological transition be sacrificed in the name of stability? E3G EU can stop Russian gas imports by 2025: accelerating clean energy avoids fossil lock-in The invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the geopolitical liability for the EU from fossil fuel imports from autocratic regimes. This analysis considers ways for the EU to replace Russian gas imports in the short term, taking critical decisions over investment in infrastructure and economic relationships. EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS Europe’s Russian energy dilemma The authors of this article claim that the EU should adopt a phased approach to energy sanctions on Russia. This would be more effective than a rushed embargo and would help preserve European unity. EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS Life punishes those who come too late This article states that the EU should immediately impose a temporary embargo on Russian energy imports. According to the author, if the union waits any longer, it will be too late – and the political costs could be huge. CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Predicting the future This short commentary demonstrates how the war has caused countries to revise their risk assessments. It is not only about doing business or investing in Russia, but also about business in other non-rule-of-law authoritarian states, where foreigners have little recourse if things go wrong. TERRA NOVA L’Europe à l’épreuve de la guerre The divisions that had settled between Europeans and created repeated confrontations – North against South, East against West, "frugal" against spenders - have all been upset by the three major crises that have followed one another at an accelerated pace in recent years: Brexit, Covid, Ukraine. This article considers the impact on the European project. ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI Russia–Ukraine talks and the indispensable role of the US and Europe The war in Ukraine is a catastrophic event that presents more risks than solutions. However, one thing stands firm for the author of this article: US and European involvement is a necessary condition for the establishment of a durable peace. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES The United States and the Ukrainian crisis: implications for the internal arena and the great power competition The response by the United States to the Ukrainian crisis is focused on efforts to send military aid, maintain and strengthen coordination with allies in Europe and NATO, and intensify the economic and political isolation of Russia. This article analyses the implications of the crisis for the US. OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH - CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW) Chiński dylemat. Rosyjska inwazja na Ukrainę a sytuacja strategiczna Chin (A Chinese dilemma. The Russian invasion in Ukraine and the strategic situation of China) The efficient resistance of Ukraine, the united European reaction and heavy sanctions on Russia are creating a new unfavourable strategic situation for China. The author reflects on a possible evolution of the Chinese stance towards the war. GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP) The China factor in Russia’s war : implications for Europe In Russia’s war against Ukraine, the European Union supports Ukraine; China stands by Russia. While the conflict is exacerbating long-term regulatory, geopolitical, and economic divergences between the EU and China, their short-term priorities overlap. Both are striving for a negotiated solution. This analysis shows how the EU could defend its own values and interests, mind its long-term room for manoeuver, and learn to defuse tensions. FRIENDS OF EUROPE Keeping China out of the Ukraine conflict This article states that keeping China out of the Ukraine-Russia conflict will be key for keeping global order, despite the damage already done to Ukraine. The author believes that liberal democracies can survive Putin’s Russia as long as it remains an isolated pariah; and Western diplomats should endeavour to achieve so. AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE The War in Ukraine: troubling lessons for Taiwan In the light of the war in Ukraine, this article comments on the question for Taiwan of how far Europe and the United States would go to its aid in the event of an attack by China. OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION How do India’s choices on the Ukraine crisis affect its foreign relations? The author considers the consequences of India's “balancing act” on the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on India's security and geopolitical interests with regard to China. LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE L’ambivalence du Moyen-Orient face à la guerre en Ukraine This paper analyses the position of some states, traditionally allies of the West, towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Countries such as Israel, Turkey or Egypt did not react or, at least at first, condemn the war in Ukraine. This has raised a series of questions about their view on the Russian aggression as well as their relations with Russia and suggests that the states in question are performing a balancing act between their American and Russian ally. UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Russia’s war on Ukraine: consequences for Georgia and Moldova This article looks at how Russia's unprovoked and illegal large-scale invasion of Ukraine has already had significant repercussions for the other two Eastern Partnership states with association agreements with the EU. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: the Palestinians and the crisis in Ukraine While most Western countries condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the United National General Assembly, the Palestinian Authority remained silent. The Palestinians regard the Ukrainian struggle against the invasion as competing with them for international attention, claims this article. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES The war in Ukraine and strategic hedging by Arab countries Central Arab countries that are seen as pro-Western have chosen an ostensibly neutral position regarding the war in Ukraine. Several oil producers in the Gulf have gone even further and seek to take advantage of the war to improve their standing. This article comments on the hedging policy by Arab countries. ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE War in Ukraine: Asia takes sides The Russian invasion of Ukraine has split Asia in two parts. On one side stand the most advanced economies in the region and the majority of Asian members; on the other side, countries like Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Pakistan that opted for neutrality, along with India and China. According to the author, such a division will affect the regional blocks in the making in the Indo-Pacific: China and the countries keen on containing China. REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE) La guerra y el resto del mundo This article analyses how this war is not only a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but also between the West and the East. Some actors are using this situation to move forward in their own external politics and security and historical vindications. For example, wounds in the relationship in between China and the US seem to be reopening. Global governance - such as the UN's - seems increasingly complicated and the world increasingly dangerous. EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS Putin’s war on Ukraine: aftershocks in the Europe-Africa partnership This articles studies how the Russian-Ukraine war looks set to create daunting challenges for African countries in areas such as food and energy security. The author encourages Europe to show solidarity with them. EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Never waste a crisis: the war on Ukraine as a catalyst in the Balkans This article looks at the Ukraine-Russia war as a warning to the leaders in the Western Balkans and as a catalyst for the EU. It is time for the first to move on and for the second to offer support, especially for the youth in the Balkans, and a clear prospect of membership. EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS A Russia strategy must look South: the Caucasus impacts Europe through the Eastern Mediterranean This articles underlines the essentiality of a good neighbour relationship and coordination between the three seas - Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas- in order to improve and maintain an European security and prosperity, especially now on the face of the current events in between Ukraine and Russia. Refugees fleeing Ukraine in Slovakia 23.3.2022 Almost one month after the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks consider the rising stakes in the struggle for democracy in Europe and beyond, and analyse the challenges of shaping an endgame, Ukraine’s application for EU membership, the nature of the war, including the cyber security threat, the use of disinformation and the role of cryptocurrencies. Others examine how the security crisis is turning into a massive humanitarian crisis, the situation of refugees in Poland and the implications of the war, especially in the security and energy domains, not only in Ukraine and the EU, but also on other regions in the world. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE The Ukraine war and the struggle to defend democracy in Europe and beyond: rising stakes in the struggle for democracy Increasing authoritarianism in some countries, such as Russia, coupled with gradual democratic erosion around the world, poses an exceptional threat to a rules-based global order, and consequently to peace and prosperity. The authors consider that the invasion of Ukraine is the most blatant and tragic realization of this threats. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES The war in Ukraine: the challenge of shaping an endgame The author considers that the longer the war continues, the chances increase for escalation to new levels that neither side wants. Therefore, before the situation is completely out of control, there must be a dialogue with Russia that can lead to an end to the war. ZENTRUM LIBERALE MODERNE (CENTER FOR LIBERAL MODERNITY) Zum Stand der russischen Invasion in der Ukraine – Was Deutschland jetzt tun kann und muss The author gives a military expert analysis about Russian war targets, nuclear escalation, Ukrainian defence and why the date of April 1, 2022 is important from a Russian point of view. FRIENDS OF EUROPE The war in Ukraine: a crowd-sourced total global war? The author sees in the world’s response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine the emergence of a new approach to countering authoritarian aggression or even a new approach to war itself. The famous Prussian theorist Carl von Clausewitz specifically said: “War is a mere continuation of policy ‘with the addition of other means’ (mit Einmischung anderer Mitteln).” This article claims the world is responding to Putin with the addition of other means like never before. GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP) Deciphering Russia’s wartime cyber campaign : what it is, what it isn’t, and what Europe can do about it The authors outline that in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cyber threat landscape is quickly evolving. Now, Europe, the United States, and like-minded democracies must prepare for persistent “gray zone” conflict in their own cyberspaces. INSTITUTE FOR PEACE SUPPORT AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT Security Turnaround after Ukraine: Regional and Institutional Implications The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine represents a turning point for European and Austrian security policy. It calls into question previously established paradigms of international security and international crisis and conflict management. Regardless of the actual outcome of the war, this paper assumes a fundamental paradigm shift in international relations. CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW) Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas Three weeks after the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s political objectives have not been achieved. Taking into account the resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces persists, the morale of Ukrainian society remaining high, and the very serious sanctions imposed by the international community on Russia, this article considers the prospects for evolution of Russian policy. EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE & EGMONT ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS The EU–Ukraine Association Agreement after Ukraine’s EU membership application: Still fit for purpose The Versailles declaration, adopted by EU leaders on 10 and 11 March, acknowledges that Ukraine belongs to the ‘European family’. The Council has already invited the European Commission to submit its opinion in accordance with Article 49 TEU. The author notes that despite this support for – and recognition of – Ukraine’s application, the road to EU membership remains a long one. STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK Beitrittsgesuch der Ukraine setzt EU unter Druck The paper discusses the consequences of Ukraine’s EU membership application. INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS ¿Comprendemos la desinformación?: Rusia y la evolución de las medidas activas. This article explores institutional practise of disinformation and looks in particular at the 'active measures' concept, born in 1963 in the URSS which, taking disinformation as a central element, approaches a broader spectrum of activities. It is argued that these kind of operations, key for external Russian politics during the Cold War, are still alive today. They have only evolved and revived. FRIENDS OF EUROPE Ukraine and the global whole-of-society response: a double-edged sword? In past wars people often felt powerless, reading newspapers or watching on television as events unfolded far away. This article claims we are going through a new era of hyper-empowered citizens and private actors who can have very real influence on events and possibly even shape their outcomes, e.g. by debunking disinformation (for example, in Russia's media), sharing through social media, or hacking as a form of activism. FRIENDS OF EUROPE Putin’s war: driving Ukrainians into hunger - and the rest of the world as well The article reflects on how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is turning a security crisis into a massive health and humanitarian crisis, not only for the 4.5mn Ukrainians displaced by the conflict thus far or the others being shelled into submission in several Ukrainian cities, but also for millions elsewhere in the world. For instance, many of the countries seeing their food insecurity grow by the day are countries in the Middle East and Africa that Putin has been courting of late. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP Mitigating the gendered effects of Ukraine’s refugee crisis Over three million Ukrainians have fled the Russian invasion that began on 24 February. While EU states have granted arrivals real benefits, Kyiv’s rule holding back conscription-age men increases dangers to the families leaving. This article discusses how states should ensure that all refugees get the help they need. FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK) Ukrainian refugees in Poland: current situation and what to expect The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced millions to flee from the war zone. This brief addresses Ukrainian refuge in Poland. It provides an overview of the current situation, discusses the ongoing solutions and potential future challenges, and stresses the key areas for urgent policy intervention. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Could the Ukraine crisis accelerate a longer-term policy shift away from fossil fuels? The author analyses the impact of the Ukraine crisis. According to this article, the crisis will accelerate a shift to non-fossil-fuel energy sources. CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Cryptocurrency’s role in the Russia-Ukraine crisis Finance typically plays a major role in wars, but the Russia-Ukraine war is the first major conflict with a prominent role for cryptocurrencies. The authors outline the prominence of crypto in this conflict, which could influence global perceptions of the technology, including among governments considering new regulations. FRIENDS OF EUROPE The need and opportunity for Europe’s energy independence The imposed economic sanctions against Russia will be effective to a certain extent. The article claims that it is about time for Europe to come to a bold decision and pare down its dependency on Russian energy to zero. This is an extremely complicated decision, but the author argues that, as always, no geopolitical plan is viable if it is not economically feasible and sustainable, and vice versa. ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE Can the EU do without Russian gas? Today, the European Union still relies on Russia for approximately 45% of its gas needs, with some EU countries – such as Italy – being more vulnerable than others. However, Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine is forcing Brussels to make difficult choices. This article analyses the arguments that affirm the EU can live without Russian gas, and also those saying it cannot. BRUEGEL Can Europe manage if Russian oil and coal are cut off ? According to the authors, a stop to Russian oil and coal supplies would push Europe into a short and painful adjustment period. But if managed well, disruptions would remain temporary. ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE We will need a 'New Deal' to engage with a post-Putin Russia As missiles and artillery shells rain mercilessly on Ukraine, the author suggests that policy analysts should ask themselves whether tougher Western sanctions are hardening rather than softening Russia’s resistance to peace talks. РОССИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ПО МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫМ ДЕЛАМ (RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL) Ukrainian Crisis. Who Has the Upper Hand? The author analyses how countries have been impacted by the situation in Ukraine, in particular it weighs the level of losses and gains for each of them. ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI Russian Energy Exports and the Conflict in Ukraine: What Options for Italy and the EU? Putin’s war on Ukraine has shaken the European Union to its core. This paper considers that implications will be long lasting in numerous domains, but it is in the security and energy dimensions that concrete changes are already becoming evident as the EU fast tracks its strategy for energy diversification. CHATHAM HOUSE Ukraine crisis could trigger cascading risks globally According to the authors, the effects on the wider world from the Ukraine invasion go far beyond the waves of shock and horror being felt from this escalating conflict. LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS) Coup d’œil à l’Est: les implications stratégiques de la guerre en Ukraine pour les États baltes et la Pologne In this article a strong focus is placed on the strategic implications of the war in Ukraine for the Baltic states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as well as neighbouring Poland, all of which are NATO's direct borders with Russia. The possibility that these states could be priority targets of a Russian offensive cannot be excluded. PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO The Ukraine war and Turkey as a “Third Pole” in a new international order After Russia launched a large-scale military invasion of Ukraine the international community reacted immediately and decisively against it, imposing a series of costly sanctions. Turkey was among the countries that refused to follow suit, instead attempting to act as a mediator between the warring camps. According to this article, this approach reveals the continuation of certain Turkish foreign policy tendencies, and aims to secure a new international role for Turkey. ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE Iran, Russia and the JCPOA: Is a year of negotiations at risk? The implications of the war in Ukraine go well beyond Europe. In the Middle East, the Iran nuclear talks may suffer from the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. After eleven months, the talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal were challenged by a last-minute Russian demand. This article reflects on how, by connecting the Iran deal with the Ukraine war, the Russian government risked casting a shadow over the negotiations. LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE Le pragmatisme de l’Inde face à la guerre en Ukraine The article examines India's posture towards the current situation in Ukraine and its refusal to distance itself from Moscow, which can be observed by its abstention for the third time in a vote at the General Assembly of United Nations on a resolution deploring Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The article discusses Moscow-New Delhi relations and possible consequences these might have for India in the future. BRUEGEL Six reasons why backstopping Russia is an increasingly unattractive option for China According to the authors, China has too much to lose from aligning with Russia over Ukraine. This article sets out six reasons why China should adopt a constructive stance on Ukraine’s future and global stability. ROBERT SCHUMAN Le Partenariat oriental à l'épreuve de la guerre en Ukraine (robert-schuman.eu) On the eve of the EU's fifth enlargement in 2003, the Neighbourhood Policy was launched to "avoid new dividing lines in Europe and to promote stability and prosperity" and to create, in the now famous phrase, a "ring of friends". According to this brief, the Eastern Partnership, which emerged on 7 May 2009, is now being undermined by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. 16.3.2022 Just over three weeks since the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks analyse the unprecedented shift in global geopolitics and the positions of various countries; the EU response, including possible and proposed changes in foreign, security or defence policies; the growing humanitarian crisis and activation of the EU’s temporary protection mechanism in the face of the large-scale displacement of civilians; and they assess the implications of the EU’s dependence on Russian gas, the economic and financial sanctions against Russia, and the economic impact of the war, including in relation to agricultural production. EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Putin Is Creating the Multipolar World He (Thought He) Wanted The authors of this article focus on the difficulties for some countries, like China, in having to position themselves after 24 February in a world that was already quite divided. It seems impossible to stay completely aloof, let alone simply align with Russia. With their sanctions reverberating throughout the global economy, the risk of the relationship with China and Russia worsening seems to be increasing. CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) War pushes us to re-define Europe The author argues that the Russia-Ukraine war is an opportunity to rebuild the foundation of a new EU and analyses the roles of NATO, US and other players in ending the conflict. DANSK INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONALE STUDIER/DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Ukraine is closer than you think Despite its turbulent domestic politics, Ukraine rarely featured at the top of the EU’s security agenda in the post-Soviet period. This article looks at how the scale of current Russian military intervention changed that, bringing the war to the EU’s doorstep, and challenging a previously lenient approach to Russia which the EU refused to see as a potential aggressor. CHATHAM HOUSE Devising the strategy to deter Russia and weaken Putin The author suggests various measures which could form part of a coherent strategy to deter Russia from further atrocities, prevent aggression beyond Ukraine, withstand its threats globally, and hold it to account. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP No-Fly Zone in Ukraine: War with Russia by Another Name Some current and former officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, call for Western powers to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine. This article explains what a no-fly zone would entail, where similar zones have been established before and the dangers of that option in Ukraine. PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO Should Ukraine Have Kept Soviet Nuclear Weapons? Following the Soviet Union collapse in 1991, the stockpile of Soviet nuclear weapons left in Ukraine comprised what was then the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal. Ukraine later transferred these to Russia, the authors consider whether this was the right choice. CYPRUS CENTER FOR EUROPEAN AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Ukraine's geopolitical identity as a diachronic fundamental element in the Russo-Ukrainian relations and the heritage of the new cold war The current Russo-Ukrainian crisis has brought unprecedented, historic, nodal milestones for the international community, in international relations and global geopolitics. According to this paper, this significantly influences the course of the 21st century political history, by irrevocably altering the international equilibrium and becoming the landmark of a new era in international relations and global politics. CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES The EU grants temporary protection for people fleeing war in Ukraine To respond to the sudden large-scale displacement of people from Ukraine, the 2001 EU Temporary Protection Directive has been activated for the first time. This paper examines the key issues and questions raised, drawing on lessons learned or ‘not to be learned’ from policies adopted by countries such as Turkey and others in South America, that have previously responded to large-scale displacements. The paper argues that the solidarity principle enshrined in the EU Treaties needs to be substantially re-thought and revisited. GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP) If Russia uses migration as a weapon, Europeans should respond in kind This policy brief looks into the risk of migrant instrumentalisation (MI) by Russia, which it considers likely especially if Russia moves deep into Western Ukraine. Drawing on an in-depth study, this brief shows how the EU can meet this specific threat. TERRA NOVA My enemy’s doctor is not my enemy The law of war explicitly prohibit attacks on places of care, personnel or patients in armed conflicts. This article considers the precedents in Grozny (Chechnya) and Aleppo (Syria), which have raised the concerns of the WHO and international observers. HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE Same shock, different effects EU member states’ exposure to the economic consequences of Putin’s war This brief takes a very first look at potential differences in exposure, focusing on direct trade links, potential costs of energy dependence on Russia and vulnerabilities towards rising energy prices more generally. It shows that the EU member states’ economic vulnerability to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is very unevenly distributed. CIDOB War in Ukraine and the gas crisis force a rethink of EU foreign policy The paper argues that EU member states dependence on Russian supplies make gas a key factor in the crisis provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The crisis will force a major rethink of Europe’s gas security over the next decade including diversifying outside sources of gas, increasing gas exchanges within Europe, and ensuring that gas stocks are much higher. OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES) The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine In the light of the strong dependence of the EU on Russian gas, the commentary examines the risks caused by tensions over the Ukraine-Russia crisis for the EU gas market stability. The assessment of the European Commission's new plan REPowerEU is also included. CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE How Sanctions on Russia Will Alter Global Payments Flows - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace This article examines the implications for global payment flows of the sanctions on Russia, explaining how SWIFT works. In particular, it notes concern that Beijing sees the Ukraine crisis as its opportunity to gain influence over financial markets. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Why more economic and financial sanctions against Russia are inevitable and energy tops the list Comprehensive financial sanctions against Russia, going well beyond the SWIFT exclusion often thought of as a “final stage,” were implemented swiftly and arguably more drastically than Moscow expected. They have significantly damaged the Russian public sector balance sheet and local financial markets. This post analyses the implications of further sanctions. AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Are Gold Rubles Gold or Rubles? This article reflects on the possibility of the appearance of a new parallel currency to the ruble, due to hyperinflation: gold. With the invasion of Ukraine, sanctions to Russia and firms severing business ties with Russia, its connections to the global economy have been damaged. This happened in 1992 and the author considers it possible it is happening again. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Agricultural Production in Ukraine and Russia: Economic Implications for Europe Both Ukraine and Russia are among the largest producers of agricultural goods in the world today, especially for grains and sunflowers. As the Russian war against Ukraine endangers this agricultural production, the rest of the world can no longer rely on commodities sourced from these countries. This article provides an overview of the economic relevance and the expected effects of these circumstances on prices and on European production and outlines their implications for the agricultural goals of the European Green Deal. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Germany and the Ukraine crisis: end of the age of illusions There seems to be no country in Europe where the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a greater systemic upheaval than in Germany, writes the author. The invasion roused Germany from the illusions that have guided its dealings with Russia since the 1970s – the “Ostpolitik” (eastern) policy. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Germany’s 180° Turn on Foreign and Security Policy in the Wake of Russia’s War Against Ukraine – European and Transatlantic Implications This article analyses the new German government’s historic break with long-established foreign and security policy tenets and what it signifies for German foreign policy. Invoking the far-reaching German word of “Zeitenwende” (turning point), Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the unexpected and unprecedented increase in defence spending in his seminal speech at the German Bundestag. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Mögliche wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen des Ukrainekriegs auf Deutschland Possible economic impact of the Ukraine war on Germany The article discusses possible consequences of the war on Ukraine for the German economy. The author goes into detail about existing economic interdependencies between Russia and Germany and how they might be affected by the war and further sanctions. CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW) Germany and the trade conflict between Lithuania & China The Chinese government’s trade boycott of Lithuania risks causing economic losses for Germany, which is particularly exposed to the effects of the Lithuanian-Chinese dispute, and weakening the cohesion of the EU’s common market. This article comments on the likely reaction by Berlin given its huge dependence on the Chinese market and the differences of opinion within the government on what direction its Beijing policy should take. ELINKEINOELÄMÄN TUTKIMUSLAITOS (RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE FINNISH ECONOMY) The Significance of Russia for Finnish Companies This policy brief analyses the importance of Russia on the Finnish economy. The authors scrutinize both the trade relations and the presence of Finnish firms in Russia and that of Russian firms in Finland. CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES Why the Ukraine crisis should push the UK and EU into a tighter embrace on security policy According to this policy brief, one of the costs of Brexit is the weakened ability of both the UK and the EU to shape a strong joint response to Russia’s threats to pan-European security. In the standoff over Ukraine, the need for close cross-Channel cooperation is particularly acute for any effective sanctions package negotiated with the US. OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES) Caution and anticipation: Turkey and the Russo-Ukrainian war The commentary analyses Turkey’s attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war, which is essentially in line with NATO’s position on the conflict, but also void of any actions or rhetoric which would clearly strike at Russia’s interests. The tangible threat that the war in Ukraine poses to Turkey’s internal stability is also examined. KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG Der Russische Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine – Reaktionen auf dem Westbalkan The Russian War of Aggression against Ukraine – Reactions in the Western Balkans All the countries of the Western Balkans voted in favour of the resolution in UN Resolution General Assembly on 2 March condemning Russia's actions. This report considers the varying positions in the Western Balkans region, which has complicated historical, political, economic and social relations with Russia, but also with Ukraine. PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO Will Taiwan Be the Next Ukraine? The authors analyse similarities and differences of Ukraine’s and Taiwan’s positions in the world picture. INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY How Is India’s Silent Diplomacy Navigating the Russia-Ukraine War? The author assesses how New Delhi has sought to navigate between expressing veiled concern for the Russian invasion and maintaining an important strategic and security relationship. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES The Russian invasion of Ukraine: legal aspects The legal channels will not stop the advance of the Russian army, but they are important in terms of the message they send to Russia and the whole world. Israel, which has seemed to lean to sitting on the fence, must join the international efforts against Russia, Otherwise it is liable to find itself on the wrong side of history, claims this article. 9.3.2022 Providing their first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, think tanks report on the united response of the Western bloc and the unfolding humanitarian crisis; assess the policy and security implications for the EU and the impact for the Middle East, North Africa, Serbia, and India; and analyse the strategic goals of Moscow, the involvement of Belarus and the impact of economic sanctions. CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS) Russian Analytical Digest No. 278: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: First Assessments and Geopolitical Implications This issue collects first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP War in Europe: responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine This paper considers how Russia’s assault on Ukraine threatens to become the largest European conflict in decades. A vigorous but judicious Western and global response is critical to limit the damage. UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Some preliminary thoughts on the policy implications of the Russian aggression Thursday 24 February 2022 is, and will be understood as, a watershed in European and global modern history. This article considers various implications of the full-scale military attack on and aggression against a neighbouring state of almost 45 million inhabitants by the world’s leading nuclear weapon power – and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Russia's “soft annexation” of Belarus during its invasion of Ukraine This article examines how Russia has for all intents and purposes also taken control of Belarus militarily, as a side-line to its unprecedented military build-up on the land borders of Ukraine and its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES The Ukraine crisis: an interim analysis According to this analysis, it is already clear that with the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has upset the world order that has existed since the Second World War. The Western bloc has already begun to realign and is presenting a unified and forceful stance vis-à-vis Moscow. Israel can no longer avoid taking a clear stand and siding fully with the countries opposing Russia. BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Oriente Medio y el Norte de África ante la guerra en Ucrania: vasos comunicantes Middle East and North Africa is, after Europe, the region that will feel the impact of the war in Ukraine most acutely, mainly in terms of energy and grain prices. The article analyses other, deeper, connections such as the diplomatic battle, the negotiation over Iran's nuclear programme and its impact on conflict dynamics across the region. ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES The Ukraine War and the Risk of a New Foreign Fighters Wave The author of this article reports on some concerns following Zelensky's plea for foreigners to join the fight against Russia and his promise to give them arms on their arrival. The article recalls the war in Donbas and the great influx of foreign fighters and the risk that this happens again. CENTAR ZA EVROPSKE POLITIKE (EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE) Ukraine and Russia are at war. What does that mean for the future of EU-Serbia relations? The authors reflect on how the current situation in Ukraine will effect Serbian politics with regard to the EU, considering their close ties to Russia. ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES Putin’s invasion of Ukraine: A wake-up call also for the MENA region? This brief approaches the different reactions of the MENA countries to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, reporting a general caution from these countries to condemn Russia's actions except from Foreign Minister Lapid. The author gives a brief overview of the impact of the war in the MENA region. FRIENDS OF EUROPE Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: getting the right Western strategy in place This article states that it is time to move beyond disbelief and develop a coherent Western strategy to face Russia's aggression. It considers whether this will be the opportunity to create more integrated European units with neighbours like France, the Benelux, Poland and Italy, and even with the post-Brexit UK. INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS (IEEE) Efectos de la guerra de Ucrania en las Repúblicas Bálticas Before the Ukrainian war, the threat of Russia was mainly understood as a matter of political or economic dimensions in the three Baltic republics. For the author, from now on, this threat is more related to an essential military dimension. This article highlights the increasing reinforcement of this military dimension in the Baltic republics and Scandinavia, which is done in order to guarantee a solid defence from the allies of the region. REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO Ucrania en busca de refugio digital Government stability and international order are in danger in Ukraine, but also the protection of its people and its national security. The control of the technological infrastructure plays an essential role in this, according to the author. This is why it is important to analyse Ukraine's ability to respond to a possible hostage of its digital infrastructure by Russia, and the optimal scenarios in which Ukraine could count on to protect its data and especially in collaboration with other countries. CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) "Russian invasion of Ukraine. Deciphering where India stands" This article considers New Delhi's position vis-à-vis the war and India’s pro-Russian tilt which is a function of its "time tested" friendship with Moscow as well as of geopolitical necessity. However, it is argued that India has a great scope in resolving the impasse in order to avoid being seen as guilty of complicity. CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) War in Europe. Ukraine fights for the West Contrary to Kremlin’s expectations, the West is united in its response to the war in Ukraine. The paper argues that this ability to take tough measures towards Moscow is crucial since at stake is nothing less than the very survival of Ukraine and the freedom of the entire Central and Eastern Europe. Possible scenarios for Ukraine and global strategic consequences are also outlined. STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK NATO-Russia Tensions: Putin Orders Invasion of Ukraine This paper examines Moscow’s strategic goals with the invasion of Ukraine and the need to avoid further escalation, taking into account the security agreements between Russia and NATO and the current European security order. STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK Moskau bedroht die Balance im hohen Norden Russia’s attack on Ukraine is not based on legitimate security interests but a rejection of the European security order. According to the authors Russia’s demand for more consideration for its own security interest have achieved the exact opposite. Russia's pressure has the paradoxical effect of bringing Finland and Sweden closer to NATO. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG SWIFT exclusion is fine, sanctioning the Russian Central Bank is better The article analyses the economic sanctions posed on Russia by the EU. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG What are the economic implications for the Russian and European economies? The Russian war against Ukraine This article gives an overview of the implications the economic sanctions on Russia have for the European and Russian economies. INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Guerre en Ukraine : leçon de grammaire stratégique This paper examines Russia’s objectives in launching a high-intensity war against Ukraine, which are clearly not limited to Donbass. Nor are they aimed at the acquisition of new territories. In all likelihood, it concludes that this is a large-scale campaign for regime change aimed at installing a power in Kiev that will guarantee it obedience and security. INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Le choc de la réalité : La coalition feu tricolore dans la crise russo-ukrainienne This analysis considers that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis puts to the test the cohesion of the new traffic light coalition, the authority of Chancellor Scholz and the ambition to adapt the post-Merkel German foreign policy. CLINGENDAEL - THE NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Phoenix or Icarus? CRU Policy Brief European strategic autonomy in light of Ukraine With all eyes on the next Russian move in Ukraine, the notion of European strategic autonomy is experiencing a revival. This paper considers the concept, concluding that broad use of the term ‘EU strategic autonomy’, as is in vogue, risks giving populism and nationalism an unnecessary impulse. CLINGENDAEL - THE NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Tsar-struck : How Vladimir Putin uses the history of the Russian Empire On February 24, Vladimir Putin shocked the world by starting a war in Ukraine. In the run-up to the Russian invasion, Putin delivered far-reaching speeches and wrote an article to legitimise his actions – packed with intense rhetoric on imperial as well as Soviet history. This article considers how Putin has consistently instrumentalised history to achieve his policy goals since the day he became president. THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Real and Imagined Challenges to Strategic Stability Strategic stability has come under pressure from a shifting military and political environment: the number of major strategic actors has increased; missile defence has evolved; and the battlefield has expanded. Nuclear arsenals are being increased and diversified. Yet, the author argues that warnings that we have entered into a new arms race should be viewed with caution and, contrary to what other analysts have suggested, technological advancements are not fundamentally undermining strategic stability. CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Changes Everything Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have profound consequences for the stability of the region and for the future of European security, not to mention the immense human suffering. In this article, Carnegie Europe’s scholars give their assessment about how the military attack will fundamentally change the post-Cold War era. DGAP - GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS If Russia uses migration as a weapon, Europeans should respond in kind Around 442,000 people have so far fled Ukraine – not just to the EU, but also to neighbors like Moldova. This is a humanitarian issue, and should not be conflated with “migrant instrumentalization” (MI), whereby a state pushes people across a border to coerce the EU to change position. Yet Russia is likely to employ MI in this way, especially if it moves deep into Western Ukraine. Drawing on an in-depth study, this policy brief shows how the EU can meet this specific threat. LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE The Long Shadow of the Soviet Union: Demystifying Putin's Rhetoric Towards Ukraine This paper provides a contextualised analysis of the Kremlin’s rhetoric regarding Ukraine since 2014. Examining the content and accuracy of Russian complaints about NATO enlargement, the article examines other motivations Putin may have for considering an attack on Ukraine, in particular 'nationalist irredentism'. OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES) Ukraine: The first day of the Russian invasion The author of this analysis offers a broad picture of the different aspects of the just-started war and its consequences. There is also allusion to the information situation (how events are being reported in Ukraine) and the economic consequences. The West strikes a blow at the Russian economy This article comments on the West’s sanctions packages against Russia and the impact on the Russian financial system. RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL The end of diplomacy? Seven Glimpses of the New Normal The author outlines events leading up to the current situation in Ukraine. CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES The Kremlin Playbook 3: Keeping the Faith This study aims to expose a new front of Russian malign influence in Europe and Eurasia: the instrumentalization of values, traditions, and religious beliefs to exploit or sow divisions among Western societies. INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Quo Vadis, Belarus? The February 2022 edition of the IRMO Brief, authored by Zoran Meter, deals with the situation in Belarus after the presidential election in 2020 to present day. The author also analyses how Belarusian support to Russia will facilitate Russian ambitions in Ukraine. This post does not necessarily represent the positions, policies, or opinions of the Council of the European Union or the European Council. The Council Library reading room is open on Monday, Wednesday and Friday from 12.00 to 15.00. The Info Desk remains open online from Monday to Friday.