IMF:Asset Purchases | Price Pressures | Rethinking GDP

 

Dear maria, Happy New Year and welcome to the first Weekend Read of 2022! In today's edition we focus on the risks and benefits of asset purchases by emerging market central banks, an overview of our inflation coverage, new ways to measure economic prosperity, rethinking debt, and a look back at 2021. Asset Purchases Photo: aldomurillo/iStock by Getty Images Risk-Free Financing? During the COVID crisis, central banks in emerging markets from Poland to the Philippines bought large sums of debt issued by their own governments to support their economies, without causing noticeable capital flight or exchange rate pressures. Should these asset purchases be viewed as an exceptional response to the COVID crisis, or could they become a more permanent addition to central banks’ policy options? The IMF’s Tobias Adrian, Christopher Erceg, Simon Gray, and Ratna Sahay answer this question in a new blog. While asset purchases can help central banks achieve their mandated objectives, they also pose significant risks, the authors say. --Balance sheet risks: One risk is to central banks’ own balance sheets: central banks can lose money if they buy sovereign or corporate debt when interest rates are low and then policy rates rise sharply. This may make a central bank less willing to tighten monetary policy. There is also a risk that governments grow accustomed to cheap financing and pressure central banks to continue, even if inflation rises. The resulting loss of confidence in a central bank’s ability to keep inflation low and stable could precipitate periods of high and volatile inflation.  Watch a recent IMF roundtable discussion on new monetary policy tools for emerging market and developing economies, where South African Reserve Bank Government Lesetja Kganyago, Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina, and World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart underscored the risks. Inflation (Ljubaphoto/iStock by Getty Image) Price Pressures Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting published this week underscored the challenges facing central bankers as they seek to subdue inflation without snuffing out economic recovery. The IMF has warned for some time of the risks of inflation, including in this blog by Tobias Adrian and Chief Economist Gita Gopinath from December, in which the authors said it would be appropriate for the Federal Reserve to accelerate the taper of asset purchases and bring forward the path for policy rate increases. --Latin America: Annual inflation in the United States is now running at 6.8 percent, the fastest since 1982, but it is not the only economy grappling with fast-rising prices. In Latin America higher food prices have fueled inflation and led some central banks to raise interest rates early on in the recovery, as shown in this Chart of The Week. --Sub-Saharan Africa: In sub-Saharan Africa, too, the cost of food is a significant contributor to inflation, owing to a combination of higher oil prices, droughts, export restrictions imposed by some major food exporters, and stockpiling in some countries, as discussed here. --Asia: In Asia, meanwhile, inflationary pressures have so far been less pronounced than in other regions. But that could soon change, partly owing to higher shipping costs, as shown in this Chart of the Week. F&D Art: Sally Deng; iStock / Tamara Luiza Measuring Economic Prosperity How should economists measure growth and prosperity? In our most recent issue of Finance & Development magazine, Miles Kimball, Daniel Benjamin, Kristen Cooper and Ori Heffetz write about the principles that could define a new measure of economic prosperity beyond Gross Domestic Product to account for happiness and satisfaction.  The recognition that GDP cannot encompass many dimensions of well-being has prompted efforts to develop measures that reflect a more complete account of what people care about. The idea is not to give up on GDP—nor to replace it with some other one-dimensional measure, such as self-reported life satisfaction, which, like GDP, gives only a partial and hence potentially misleading picture. Instead, a measure that captures many dimensions of national well-being and complements GDP is needed, they write. Read the entire article.  Listen to a recent IMF podcast with Kimball. Check out our December Issue of Finance & Development.  Want to get a print copy delivered to your home or office? Click here to subscribe.     IMF Podcast: Public Debt In a new IMF Podcast, economist Barry Eichengreen discusses his new book, which examines the evolution of sovereign debt from the wars of medieval Europe through the Covid-19 crisis, illustrating public debt's many positive uses, from reacting to financial crises to building public works.  (Photo: IMF)   IMF MENA Update In case you missed it, we recently sent the third issue of our monthly IMF MENA update newsletter, reporting on the IMF's activities in the Middle East and North Africa region. You can also read it in Arabic. If you want to subscribe to this newsletter, click here to access your preferences and select "add subscriptions." (Photo: IMF/Joshua Roberts)   Essential Reading: Inclusive Growth Read the IMF's latest research on gender, inequality and inclusive growth. In our eLibrary section you can access all the latest papers on these topics.   Quote of the Week "Safeguarding people’s health relies on resilient health systems that ensure everyone has access to the good-quality services they need, without facing financial hardship." —World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus in his recent F&D article "Financing Future Health Systems" WEEKLY ROUND-UP 01. Top 10 Blogs of 2021 The arc of 2021, from tentative recovery to resurgent uncertainty, may feel like more of a circle for many around the world who are understandably weary of the pandemic and eager for a return to normal. But to monetary and fiscal policymakers—who could be forgiven for also feeling weary amid prolonged crisis—the year ended in a much different place, as many prepare to unwind unprecedented support. That normalization process will demand clear communications despite facing many unknowns. Among our most-read blogs of 2021, readers sought insight on the widening gaps in the global economic recovery as well as diverging vaccination prospects. 02. IMF Podcasts: The Year in Review The past year has brought us new challenges even as the old ones persist. If anything, the ongoing pandemic has taught us to think differently about tackling the challenges and questions we currently face when it comes to big issues like climate change, gender equality, inflation and economic measurement. In this editor’s pick of 10 podcasts from 2021, we present (in no particular order) conversations with top thinkers on a range of topics and issues that we will continue to confront in 2022 and beyond. 03. Spain's Calviño to Chair IMFC Members of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC), the policy advisory committee of the IMF's Board of Governors, selected Nadia Calviño, Spain’s First Vice President and Minister for Economy and Digitalization as Chair of the Committee for a term of two years. Calviño replaces Magdalena Andersson, currently Sweden's prime minister, who relinquished her duties as IMFC Chair at the end of December.  Asia’s inflation has so far been more moderate compared with other regions, affording central banks room to keep interest rates low and support economic recovery, as shown in our Chart of the Week by Yan Carrière-Swallow, Pragyan Deb and Daniel Jiménez. However, Asia’s tepid price gains may see greater momentum next year. The outlook remains uncertain, and central banks should be ready to tighten policy if inflation pressures and expectations mount. Adam Behsudi Editor IMF Weekend Read abehsudi@IMF.org

EYΑΓΓΕΛΟΥ ΒΕΝΙΖΕΛΟΥ συνεντεύξεις..

 Video: https://vimeo.com/663681568

 

Συνέντευξη Ευάγγελου Βενιζέλου στην ΕΡΤ 1 και στην εκπομπή «Επτά» με τη Βάλια Πετούρη (8.1.2022)

 

Β. Πετούρη: Να σας ευχηθώ καλή χρονιά και θα σας ευχαριστήσω που ανοίγουμε τον κύκλο των εκπομπών του 2022 μαζί.

Ευ. Βενιζέλος: Εγώ ευχαριστώ για την πρόσκληση και εύχομαι τα καλύτερα σε όλους.

Β. Πετούρη: Κύριε Πρόεδρε, πώς προβλέπετε το πολιτικό αποτύπωμα του 2022; Θα είναι μία χρονιά δύσκολη, η οποία κληρονομεί βαριά προβλήματα από το 2021 και πρώτα από όλα το πρόβλημα της πανδημίας που δεν έχει μόνο επιπτώσεις σε ανθρώπινο επίπεδο αλλά θα δούμε στη συνέχεια και τις οικονομικές επιπτώσεις, όταν θα υποχωρήσει πια η πανδημία και θα δούμε και πώς θα τις αντιμετωπίσουμε. Έχετε και ένα πολύ ενδιαφέρον άρθρο σήμερα, θα τα συζητήσουμε όλα αυτά. Θέλω να ξεκινήσουμε όμως με τη μικρή εικόνα, με τη χώρα μας. Πώς κρίνετε την κατάσταση στην Ελλάδα και θέλω να σας ζητήσω να κρίνετε και τους χειρισμούς της κυβέρνησης.

Ευ. Βενιζέλος: Δεν μπορεί να αξιολογήσει κανείς την κατάσταση σε καμία χώρα του κόσμου απομονωμένα. Η ανθρωπότητα, όλες οι χώρες,  και στο πλαίσιο αυτό και η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση που μη θεωρούμε ότι είναι το κέντρο του κόσμου, είναι μία πολύ σημαντική οντότητα αλλά δεν είναι η μεγαλύτερη ούτε η κρισιμότερη, αντιμετωπίζουν λίγο-πολύ ταυτοχρόνως τα ίδια προβλήματα.

Το 2022 θα είναι ένα έτος εξαιρετικά κρίσιμο και ενδιαφέρον διεθνοπολιτικά, γιατί όλοι οι παίκτες επανατοποθετούνται, γίνεται ένα πολύ μεγάλο συνολικό repositioning, όλοι παίρνουν μία νέα θέση στον παγκόσμιο χάρτη. Αυτό αφορά και την περιοχή μας, δεν αφορά μόνο τις σχέσεις Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών-Κίνας, Ηνωμένων Πολιτειών-Ρωσίας, Ευρώπης-Ρωσίας και ούτω καθεξής, αφορά και την Ανατολική Μεσόγειο, αφορά και τη Νοτιοανατολική Ευρώπη, αφορά τις Ελληνοτουρκικές σχέσεις, το Κυπριακό. Βέβαια όλα αυτά δεν είναι μία υψηλή πολιτική που ενδιαφέρεται  μόνο για  τα θέματα ασφάλειας και άμυνας...

Β. Πετούρη: Έχουν αντίκτυπο στη ζωή μας και στην καθημερινότητά μας.

Ευ. Βενιζέλος: …είναι άμεσα συνδεδεμένα με την ενεργειακή πολιτική, με τη λειτουργία των ενεργειακών αγορών, με την ακρίβεια στα καύσιμα, με αυτή όλη την πίεση που θα δεχθούν οι τιμές παγκοσμίως, με τη διάσπαση της εφοδιαστικής αλυσίδας που βεβαίως οφείλεται στην πανδημία, αλλά προφανώς επηρεάζεται και από λόγους πολιτικούς. Εμείς λοιπόν υφιστάμεθα εδώ, στην Ελλάδα, ως κράτος μέλος της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης και της Ευρωζώνης, όλη αυτή την πίεση. Πρέπει να βρούμε τη θέση μας στον παγκόσμιο χάρτη και στον περιφερειακό χάρτη και να τη διατηρήσουμε, να προστατεύσουμε  τα λεγόμενα εθνικά μας συμφέροντα, δικαιώματα.

Επίσης πρέπει να διαχειριστούμε με τον καλύτερο δυνατό τρόπο την πίεση της πανδημίας, όπου η αβεβαιότητα είναι πάρα πολύ μεγάλη. Παρά τα αισιόδοξα μηνύματα υπάρχει μία πίεση, που δεν ξέρουμε πώς θα εξελιχθεί. Αυτή δεν είναι μόνον υγειονομική, είναι πρωτίστως υγειονομική αλλά θα είναι και το 2022 και οικονομική. Δεν έχει προβλεφθεί ένας όγκος ενισχύσεων στο επίπεδο της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης και της Ευρωζώνης για το 2022, αντίστοιχος με το μεγάλο όγκο των ενισχύσεων του 2020 και του 2021.

CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention:CDC Expands Booster Shot Eligibility and Strengthens Recommendations for 12-17 Year Olds

January 7, 2022 This message includes updates on the COVID-19 response from CDC. The COVID-19 Outbreak is a rapidly evolving situation and information will be updated as it becomes available.

CDC Expands Booster Shot Eligibility and Strengthens Recommendations for 12-17 Year Olds CDC now recommends that adolescents age 12 to 17 years old should receive a booster shot 5 months after their initial Pfizer-BioNTech vaccination series. Data show that COVID-19 boosters help broaden and strengthen protection against Omicron and other SARS-CoV-2 variants. ACIP reviewed the available safety data following the administration of over 25 million vaccine doses in adolescents; COVID-19 vaccines are safe and effective. At this time, only the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is authorized and recommended for adolescents aged 12-17. For some immunocompromised children aged 5-11 years old, CDC recommends an additional dose of thePfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine to complete the primary series – a total of three doses. Learn more about myths and facts or get answers to frequently asked questions about COVID-19 vaccines for children.

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Isolation and Quarantine CDC has been monitoring the emerging science on when and for how long a person is maximally infectious with Omicron, as well as the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and booster doses against Omicron infection. CDC has updated COVID-19 isolation and quarantine recommendations with shorter isolation (for asymptomatic and mildly ill people) and quarantine periods of 5 days to focus on the period when a person is most infectious, followed by continued masking for an additional 5 days. With the recommended shorter isolation and quarantine periods, it is critical that people continue to wear well-fitting masks and take additional precautions for 5 days after leaving isolation or quarantine. You can end isolation after 5 full days if you are fever-free for 24 hours without the use of fever-reducing medication and your other symptoms have improved. Mask use and layered prevention strategies, such as receiving all recommended vaccination and booster doses, physical distancing, screening testing, handwashing, and improved ventilation, are key to preventing COVID-19 and decreasing transmission.

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Stay Up to Date with Your Vaccines CDC recommends that people remain up to date with their vaccines, which includes additional doses for individuals who are immunocompromised or booster doses at regular time points. Individuals who are moderately or severely immunocompromised should get an additional primary shot and a booster shot. Studies show after getting vaccinated against COVID-19, protection decreases over time and may also be decreased due to changes in circulating variants. The recent emergence of the Omicron variant further increases the importance of vaccination and boosters to protect against COVID-19. Current surveillance data from the United States demonstrate that it is critically important for people to remain up to date with CDC’s vaccine recommendations. In November, those who were unvaccinated were more than 3 times more likely to test positive for infection compared to those who were vaccinated and more than 9 times likely compared to those who were boosted.

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	COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are rapidly increasing across the United States, due largely to the highly contagious Omicron variant. CDC recently updated its quarantine and isolation recommendations for people who have COVID-19 or have been exposed.

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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

January 7, 2022 US states, territories, and District of Columbia have reported 58,689,973 cases of COVID-19 in the United States. CDC provides updated U.S. case information online daily. In addition to cases, deaths, and laboratory testing, CDC's COVID Data Tracker now has a Vaccinations tab to track distribution of COVID-19 vaccines in your state.

U.S. Cases

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 1600 Clifton Rd   Atlanta, GA 30329   1-800-CDC-INFO (800-232-4636)   TTY: 888-232-6348