IMF-ΔΙΕΘΝΕΣ ΝΟΜΙΣΜΑΤΙΚΟ ΤΑΜΕΙΟ,update

 

In the final newsletter from this year’s annual meetings, we spotlight AI’s economic impact, the outlook for Europe and the Western Hemisphere, and how the IMF serves its 191 member countries. FULL SCHEDULE AI AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY  Racing Without Barriers  "The world can’t afford to get AI wrong,” Kristalina Georgieva wrote in a blog on Friday. AI is lifting growth now, especially in economies that supply the hardware. The larger payoff, which she puts at roughly half a percentage point a year added to global growth over a decade, depends on adoption. But without safeguards, the risks may exceed the opportunities.   Speaking at a seminar in Bangkok, the IMF managing director framed the challenge as a car race. “We are racing, and the question is how do we install barriers, so if a car was to fly out, it doesn’t kill people.” Governments “don’t know enough” to regulate with sufficient speed, she said, so industry self-regulation is appropriate, led by the main producers: United States, China, and India.   Jack Clark, co-founder and head of public benefit at Anthropic, went further. “I think it’s worse than you described. I think it’s Formula One at night without maybe brakes in the cars.” He backed “common sense standards” and said testing “shouldn’t ultimately be voluntary.” He added that “it cannot only be companies making these decisions.”    Payoff will take time    Georgieva sees “incremental improvements” but “not yet transformation at scale.” Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, placed the gains in “the diffusion and adoption in every company.” Tobias Meyer, chief executive of DHL Group, said the change came with “the agentic setup,” in which AI draws on company databases to give exact answers. At DHL, which moves about 100 million parcels a day, this means using AI to track a parcel’s exact location and handle high-volume customs clearance and customer service.    Spreading the gains requires electricity, digital infrastructure, and trained workers, Georgieva said. The blog notes that advanced economies are three times better equipped digitally than low-income countries. In her plenary address to the annual meetings, she said: “Simple AI, accessible via a smartphone, could prove very democratic. As the science fiction writer William Gibson said, ‘The future is already here—it’s just not evenly distributed.’ Our task must be to bring this future to all.”  Watch the seminar Read the blog AI’S ECONOMIC IMPACT Fed’s Warsh Sees AI Aiding Central Bankers  Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said artificial intelligence is “probably the most consequential change” for the economy in his lifetime, boosting demand today while likely making economies more productive and wealthier in coming years.    The technology will also transform how central bankers make decisions, Warsh said in a conversation with Kristalina Georgieva. New analytical tools will help policymakers distill vast amounts of data to better judge economic trends, he said.    “It’s going to fundamentally change the conduct of monetary policy,” Warsh said. “We’re going to have a lot more confidence in what it tells us as we’re looking outside the window and saying, ‘is that real or is that lagged and noisy data subject to mismeasurement.’”    Amid such rapid change, Warsh said central banks must be willing to rethink old approaches that no longer fit today’s world if they are to preserve the institutional credibility that underpins effective policy.    “Our objective is to think anew about questions,” Warsh said. “And the thing that we don’t want to hear is: This is how we’ve always done it.”  Watch the conversation EUROPE AND AMERICAS IMF Urges Reforms As Weak Productivity Weighs on Growth  Europe and the Western Hemisphere need to step up reforms to lift productivity and growth as aging populations, high energy costs and rising debt strain their economies, IMF staff said.    Both regions have weathered the energy shock from the Middle East conflict better than expected, but longer-term growth prospects remain subdued.    Europe has benefited from increased use of renewable energy and reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels. The IMF expects the Euro Area (excluding Ireland) to grow 1.2 percent this year, while central, eastern and southeastern Europe is projected to expand 2.2 percent.    Mateusz Szczurek, director of the IMF’s European Department, told a press briefing that the continent should deepen its single market, promote innovation and strengthen energy resilience to counter weak productivity and population aging.    “Protectionist measures or broad-based industrial policy can buy time, but not prosperity,” he said.    Western Hemisphere    Western Hemisphere economies are expected to grow by about 2.2 percent this year and next, helped by strong US demand, still favorable financial conditions, high non-oil commodity prices, tourism, and remittances.     “The policy challenge ahead will be to turn these current tailwinds into lasting gains,” said Nigel Chalk, director of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, pointing to the need for credible fiscal consolidation plans and the risk of El Niño-related weather disruptions across the region.   Without stronger productivity and investment, he said, “Latin America risks falling further behind in improving income and living standards.”   Regional Outlook: European Department Regional Outlook: Western Hemisphere Department IMF WORK AND PURPOSE   The Fund That Never Rests In her address to the annual meetings plenary, Kristalina Georgieva outlined how the IMF is serving its 191 members. In short, as she put it: “The Fund—your Fund—never rests.”    Consider its increased focus on imbalances, the gaps between what countries save, invest, and trade. The IMF is sharpening how it measures them and what it advises. Its message to the largest members is clear: “the US needs to save more, China needs to consume more, and Europe needs to invest more.”    The IMF is also updating its own tools. It helps countries strengthen their financial systems, including against cyberattacks, and this year completed its five-yearly review of the Financial Sector Assessment Programs. It has also reviewed its economic surveillance, its lending conditions, and its method for assessing whether low-income countries’ debts are sustainable.    In a crisis, the IMF is a lender of last resort. Credit outstanding plus undrawn commitments stand at $240 billion, with unused lending capacity about three times that. Concessional financing to the poorest members totals $36 billion, around four times its historical average.    The main vehicle for concessional lending is the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, which needs broad approval from members to move toward self-sustainability. Thirty-nine countries have given assurances covering almost 48 percent of the required commitments. Support from EU countries would raise that share to 74 percent, moving closer to the 90 percent threshold needed to bring the framework into effect.   “I ask the rest of you also for your support to get us to the finish line,” Georgieva said. Watch the plenary BEHIND THE SCENES MEDIA PARTNERS Give us your feedback!   What do you think of the Annual Meetings and our newsletter coverage? Share your thoughts and feedback directly by clicking here.  Sincerely, IMF 2026 Annual Meetings Team   First-time reader? 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