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Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine
- 14 September 2022
- Think Tank Review
- gsclibrary
This is a non-exhaustive collection of Think Tanks reports on the invasion of Ukraine, covering the period from February 2022 onwards, which is regularly updated:
14.9.2022
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI)
Le retour de la haute intensité en Ukraine : quels enseignements pour les forces terrestres ?
The Ukrainian battlefield marks the renewal of so-called “high-intensity” warfare. The author notes that it constitutes a major strategic turning point, reversing the contemporary model of wars involving the West. For the Ukrainians, this high-intensity conflict is both political, because it involves their vital interests, and capability-based, mobilizing all of their military means. For Russia, on the other hand, the high intensity is more about capabilities than politics.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI)
Cercles dirigeants russes : infaillible loyauté au système Poutine ?
Despite the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia following Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in February, no senior member of Russian ruling circles has defected. This article endeavours to provide some answers as to the reasons for such solidity of the Putinian system, by offering in passing a “photograph” of the current Russian ruling circles.
CARNEGIE EUROPE
Autocracy versus democracy after the Ukraine invasion: mapping a middle way
Russia's invasion of Ukraine will sharpen the divide between democracies and autocracies, but also lead to more realpolitik strategic balancing. A key question raised in this report is what kind of coordination emerges between democracies.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
The defense impact of the Ukraine war on the Visegrád four
Russia’s war against Ukraine is a major strategic challenge for the Visegrád four countries, especially in terms of defense capabilities. The author notes that they all are important transit or destination countries for refugees, and Russian fossil fuels are a major part of their energy mix to varying degrees.
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Ukraine’s recovery after Lugano: first blueprints take shape but quandaries lie ahead
This article analyses the outcome of the high-level discussion at the Ukraine recovery conference, hosted in Lugano in July, on rebuilding and modernizing Ukraine, including the principles and priorities for the recovery process ahead. However, numerous questions about the modalities of support and details of the expected transformation remain to be answered in the future.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Six months, twenty-three lessons: what the world has learned from Russia’s war in Ukraine
In this article, a range of experts share the biggest lessons they’ve learned from the crisis and comment on several areas such as the US foreign policy, the US national security, military operations, deterrence, and the global economy.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
Transdniestria, Moldova, and Russia’s war in Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine has put the spotlight on the “frozen conflict” in Transdniestria, the Moscow-backed breakaway part of Moldova that borders southwestern Ukraine. Russia has raised the prospect of using Transdniestria to open a second front against Ukraine and to pressure Moldova. The report notes that such a move would increase the risk of a Russian confrontation with Romania - a NATO member with close ethnic, cultural, and historic ties to Moldova .
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Survive and thrive: a European plan to support Ukraine in the long war against Russia
To prevail in that war, the Russian regime must hope this Ukrainian spring will give way to a Russian winter. It wants to make progress on the ground by slowly capturing more territory. But, according to the authors, even as the EU and its member states push back on all these fronts, they should consider more holistically how they will support Ukraine in the long war.
ΙΝΣΤΙΤΟΥΤΟ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΩΝ ΥΠΟΘΕΣΕΩΝ (FOREIGN AFFAIRS INSTITUTE)
Geopolitics of the war in Ukraine
Τhe report analyses the geopolitics of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as part of inherent Russian revisionism and its implications for regional and global international order. It examines Russian interests and strategic objectives, the geopolitical impact of the invasion and analyzes the military and strategic lessons of the war in Ukraine. It provides three possible military scenarios about the continuation of the war, also addressing the issue of the possible use of nuclear weapons, and concludes with some policy recommendations.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Comment la guerre en Ukraine modifie les équilibres politiques en Russie
A significant part of the Russian political establishment tries to stay away from the conflict in Ukraine, which the power structures (Siloviki) use to strengthen their grip on the country, notes the author. The war also modified the relations between the centre and the periphery, the regions being called upon to provide combatants and contribute to the reconstruction of the areas conquered by the Russian army.
FRIEDRICH-EBERT-STIFTUNG (FRIEDRICH EBERT FOUNDATION)
This report, based on interviews with small farmers, profile experts and representatives of local authorities in Ukraine, summarizes the most typical challenges of agriculture field representatives with the purpose of reducing the negative costs of the war on the food security of Ukraine and in the world.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
Four months of sanctions: the state and prospects of the Russian economy
The author analyses the prospects of Russian economy in the light of the impact sanctions are likely to have in the coming months, observing that all economic sectors are slowing down and the real economic pain for Russia is yet to come.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
The Russian economy is muddling through the sanctions war
The transatlantic campaign of sanctions against Russia is unprecedented in scale and scope and imposes considerable barriers and additional cost to the functioning of the Russian economy. The author claims that Russia currently lacks a strategic plan of economic restructuring and that the future course of events will depend on whether the private sector leads this restructuring with minimal losses or the government imposes its normative prospective, tilting the result farther from economic equilibrium.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Creating a new energy strategy for a post Ukraine war world
This report is a detailed analysis of the new levels of interaction that the US and its strategic partners must address between national security planning and national energy planning.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
According to the paper, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly altered the outlook for Russia’s energy transition and created uncertainties on the global path towards net zero. Russia’s actions and the Western response are also reconfiguring global energy relations, with profound economic and geopolitical consequences that may, unless managed, undermine international cooperation on the energy transition and slow down progress on climate change mitigation.
EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR THE MEDITERRANEAN
La guerra en Ucrania podría reactivar las relaciones entre Europa y el Golfo
The article claims that, to end dependence on Russia, Europe is seeking an energy association with the Gulf countries, but they maintain an ambiguous position in order to exploit their renewed relevance.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Guerre en Ukraine. Large soutien citoyen à l’action de l’Union européenne
The report comments on the results of two Eurobarometer surveys carried out on the ground in the spring. The results provide an opportunity to take stock of the general attitudes of the citizens of the 27 member states towards the EU, and to assess their reactions to the Russian-led war in Ukraine, a few months after its outbreak.
TERRA NOVA
Un nouveau test pour la solidarité européenne
In a new shock to European unity, the war in Ukraine is testing solidarity within Europe, according to this paper. The author queries whether, after the mistakes of the sovereign debt crisis and the lessons of the health crisis, Europeans will be able to stand together.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Turkey in the Black Sea: is a balancing act still possible?
This article comments on Turkey's foreign policy in the context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with a focus on Turkey's efforts towards establishing amicable relations with Russia while being a part of the Western alliance.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
This paper highlights the multiple motivators and nuances behind India’s strategically ambivalent approach to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, its strategic split between the West and Russia. It also discusses what the BJP’s geopolitical thinking means for European relations with India and other players in the Indo-Pacific going forward.
CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
UK trade and the war in Ukraine
The UK is less exposed to the direct trade effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than its European neighbours. However, according to this report, the indirect and longer-term effects of the war on UK trade could still be significant. In the longer term, post-war Ukraine’s future status and trading relationship with the EU could affect the UK, as the process of defining Ukraine’s position with regard to the EU may encourage Brussels to revisit its relations with the UK or even to explore alternative models for other non-member countries on the EU’s periphery.
TERRA NOVA
L’Italie, la Russie de Poutine et l’Ukraine
Depending on the outcome of the elections in Italy on 25 September, Italian policy towards Russia could be affected, and may weaken the alliance of Europeans alongside the Ukrainians. The author proposes an inventory of the Italian political class in the face of the "Russian question" on the eve of the elections.
20.7.2022
Russia’s plan to partition Ukraine, war and post-war needs, how to get to peace negotiations, NATO’s future relationship with Russia, impact on the economic development of Ukraine, ensuring universal access to food, the changing conditions of energy supply in Germany and Europe, how to escape the winter energy crisis, Ukraine’s long and arduous road to EU membership, avoiding pitfalls in the reconstruction process, impact of the war on Central Asian republics and in the Arab world, are some of the topics covered in this update.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
A creeping annexation. Russia’s plans to partition Ukraine
Since May 2022, Russian government officials have increasingly frequently spoken of annexing the occupied territories. The article explores this scenario, analysing Russia's military and administrative efforts to maintain control in occupied Donbas and southern Ukraine and its plan of gradual partitioning Ukraine.
INSTITUT DE RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES (IRIS)
La guerre russo-ukrainienne, catharsis de deux conflits convergents
According to this article, the Russo-Ukrainian War is the catharsis of two converging conflicts. First, the Russian-American confrontation which, given the nuclear deterrent, has so far been expressed in all areas except the military, finds a "proxy" army. Then the irreducible confrontation, since the independence of Ukraine, of two cultures and political projects dividing this country into two enemy geopolitical groups (Donbass versus the rest of Ukraine).
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Making it the distance to victory : Ukraine’s war and post-war needs
This paper sets out Ukraine’s war and post-war needs, focusing on the immediate demands: military, economic, humanitarian, and political. The purpose is not only to give an overview of the enormity of needs but also to provide ideas on to where international support should be channeled.
KÖRBER-STIFTUNG
A new global order? History and power politics in the era of Zeitenwende
This collection of essays attempts to provide historical orientation, context and advice at a time where confrontations about the past have morphed into the weaponization of history and actual warfare.
NORSK UTENRIKSPOLITISK INSTITUTT (NORWEGIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
NATO’s 2022 strategic concept: change, continuity and implications
Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has led to a far stronger focus on conventional military forces on the strategic level. In addition, Russia has gone from being described as a potential “strategic partner” in 2010 to being defined as an aggressive adversary. The balancing act of both communicating firm condemnation of Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine and presenting a vision for a more resolved relationship in the future is a key challenge for NATO.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Possible Russian nuclear deployments to Belarus could shift Europe’s nuclear balance
Should Putin’s promise turn out to be more than nuclear bluster - something Putin and other Russian officials have resorted to since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine - the deployment could remake the nuclear balance in Europe and increase the risk of a potential NATO-Russia conflict occurring.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Russia’s war on Ukraine: how to get to negotiations
President Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine will negotiate with Russia when Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian army back to their positions of February 24. The decision on when and how to negotiate rests entirely with Ukraine. The United States and other allies can provide the support Ukrainians need in that process. This commentary briefs what that support would look like.
CATO INSTITUTE
Ukraine could tear Europe apart
This article looks into the support for Ukraine expressed by the U.S. and Europe at the recent G7 meeting and the NATO summit. So far money and arms continue to flow to Kiev. Even many people who blame Moscow for committing blatant aggression believe it critical to end the war quickly.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Ucrania: ni guerra relámpago, ni paz duradera
The author notes that the prolongation of the war in Ukraine is having serious consequences for all the actors involved. With the Russian blitzkrieg in Ukraine having failed, a negotiated solution to the conflict seems far off. The starting positions around a hypothetical negotiating table are irreconcilable. Everything points to a long-standing entrenched conflict: a hybrid war that rules out, indefinitely, lasting peace in 21st-century Europe.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
The Ukraine war: A longer dystopian future looms large
The author outlines how the war in Ukraine has altered the global landscape in a manner that was not anticipated, the global division of power now being sharper with Russia and China on one side, and the US with a revitalised alliance system on the other. The enhanced risk of nuclear war is considered the most serious development of all.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
The impact of the war on the economic development of Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has impacted the world economy and affected Ukraine severely, ruining industries as well as causing massive migration, a decrease in household income, and an increase in the budget deficit and government debt. As the war continues, it will deepen the negative effects on the economy.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS (CIDOB)
How to reform international trade to ensure universal access to food?
Russia and Ukraine are both major exporters of wheat and other commodities. This article looks at how the Russian war against Ukraine has accelerated the need for a profound transformation of long-distance supply chains and outlines five factors in that transformation : high energy prices; disruptions in the workforce; food protectionism; shortage of fertilisers; and global inflation.
POLSKI INSTYTUT EKONOMICZNY (POLISH ECONOMIC INSTITUTE)
The food supply crisis as a result of the invasion of Ukraine
The report, with help of a sensitivity index, shows which countries are most exposed to the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As many as 700 million people live in the countries where food security is a threat as the marked increase in prices has diminished the economic availability of food. Recommendations are given on how to avoid a global food crisis.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Wirtschaftssanktionen gegen Russland : internationale Perspektiven und globale Auswirkungen
In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a Western alliance has imposed drastic sanctions on Moscow. The article points out that not only Russia and the West are directly affected by the far-reaching economic consequences, but that dilemmas also arise for China and India.
SAFE - SUSTAINABLE ARCHITECTURE FOR FINANCE IN EUROPE
The weaponization of global payment infrastructures: a strategic dilemma
The sixth sanction package of the European Union excluded the Russian Sberbank from SWIFT. However, the economic weaponization of global payment infrastructures may backfire on Europe. This paper weighs the advantages and disadvantages joint European and US decision, including the need for policy reforms.
RYTŲ EUROPOS STUDIJŲ CENTRAS (EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE)
The authors give an analytical overview of the Belarusian economy, describing the impact of the Western sanctions (April-June).
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Global sanctions dashboard: Russia default and China secondary sanctions
The authors comment on sanctions and export controls against Russian oil and gas companies. The threat of secondary sanctions against China is also pointed out.
HANNS-SEIDEL-STIFTUNG (HANNS SEIDEL FOUNDATION)
Folgen des Krieges in der Ukraine: wie steht es um die Energieversorgung in Deutschland?
Germany must diversify its sources for energy imports and must no longer be so dependent on a single raw material supplier. This article discusses which options are actually available.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Krieg und Hunger – Versorgungsrisiken, Lösungsansätze, Konfliktkonstellationen
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, a major exporter of wheat, is causing supply risks around the world. This article exemplifies how differently individual countries react to the wheat shortage.
DEUTSCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
The European Union has increased pressure on Russia by enacting a coal embargo. Recent studies show that Germany will be able to substitute Russian supplies with imports from other countries by summer 2022. However, with the looming threat of a Russian gas supply stop, the authors consider that plans must be developed to ensure security of supply.
ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG (CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
Economic consequences of a sudden stop of energy imports: the case of natural gas in Germany
This analysis draws on different scenarios. In a best-case scenario, Germany might "only" experience a “regular” recession, but in a worst-case scenario, a sudden gas embargo could cause the largest annual GDP loss that (West) Germany has experienced since World War II. Moreover, there are reasons to expect the social consequences of an embargo-caused recession in 2022/23 to be more severe than in the previous two recessions.
ENERGIEWIRTSCHAFTLICHES INSTITUT AN DER UNIVERSITÄT ZU KÖLN (INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE)
Szenarien für die Preisentwicklung von Energieträgern: Endbericht
The war in Ukraine and the resulting geopolitical upheavals are changing the conditions for energy supply in Germany and Europe. How will the prices for gas, coal, oil and electricity develop in the medium term? What does that mean for households and industry? This study examines those scenarios and discusses the demand for electricity and gas, the availability of Russian imports and the expansion of renewable energies.
Institute of International and European Affairs
Europe’s long winter: escaping the energy crisis
The authors analyse the impact on energy prices in Europe after the Russian invasion and the Covid-19 pandemic. It gives general recommendations and also shows the importance of a second electricity interconnector between Ireland and France.
Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies - European University Institute
The Russian invasion has brought a lot of geopolitical tensions. This policy brief gives a summary that addresses three issues for the ‘New State of the World’: key characteristics; policy priorities in the near and longer term; and process and governance.
TERRA NOVA
Pourquoi la guerre en Ukraine risque d’affaiblir l’Europe dans le monde
Russia's war against Ukraine has already had and will have even more international repercussions in the coming months. Tensions on energy and food prices, and even the risk of shortages, will have particularly brutal effects on the already fragile countries of the South.
EUROPEAN THINK TANKS GROUP (ETTG)
The European Green Deal and the war in Ukraine: addressing crises in the short and long term
This policy brief argues that the EGD is instrumental in setting the EU and its partners on a sustainable path, and key to addressing multiple crises in the short and long term. Moreover, successful implementation of the EGD can help the EU weather the shock of the war, while facilitating sustainable development that leaves no one, and no country, behind.
WISSENSCHAFTSZENTRUM BERLIN FÜR SOZIALFORSCHUNG (SOCIAL SCIENCE RESEARCH CENTER BERLIN)
Widersprüchliche Signale: wie EU-Staaten vor dem Ukrainekrieg über Russland sprachen
In this article, the authors provide an analysis of all speeches by EU member states before the United Nations General Assembly up to 2020 in order to see if they had shown enough clarity towards Russia before the Russian attack on Ukraine.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
By granting Ukraine (and the Republic of Moldova) candidate status, the EU-27, shifted the policy gears: from neighbourhood to enlargement. This collective consent has the potential to make the EU stronger. The view of the author is that the outcome depends on the political will of Brussels and the current and potentially new member states.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Der mögliche EU-Beitritt der Ukraine und seine Konsequenzen
The European Council granted Ukraine candidate country status. Despite the political momentum, the road to the EU will be long and arduous. This article considers the challenges for the EU and Ukraine in preparing for accession and eventual admission.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Rebuilding Ukraine: maybe not the Marshall Plan but certainly Marshall Plan money
The author notes that the reconstruction of Ukraine will be a massive undertaking stretching over at least a decade. Given that Ukraine alone cannot finance its reconstruction any more than it can supply its own weapons, the donor community has a vital interest in creating a system of checks and procedures in advance to ensure that the usual pitfalls of major construction projects are avoided. A Marshall Plan for Ukraine now, even years before the first euro or dollar is released, can have the same value in sustaining public morale, social cohesion and the will to resist.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Turkish dilemmas in the shadow of the war in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine forcefully evoked the question of Turkey’s place on the international stage. This article looks at Ankara's policy towards the parties involved in the war as well as at Turkey's domestic political and economic situation.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES (IFRI)
La guerre en Ukraine vue d'Asie centrale
Russia's war on Ukraine has a direct impact on the Central Asian republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan). The posture of neutrality, common to all Central Asian countries at the beginning of the Russian invasion, gradually changed in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and also in Kyrgyzstan.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Bidens Balanceakt – die Ukraine stärken, Krieg mit Russland vermeiden : Ziele, Szenarien, Optionen
The Biden administration's calculus seems to be to give Putin a choice: either serious peace negotiations or a war that could drag on for years and would require national mobilization in Russia. This article notes that this calculation is not yet working out and, according to US intelligence services, Putin is preparing for a longer war in the expectation of his greater willingness and ability to face the challenges and that US and EU resolve will falter due to economic woes.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS)
Explaining Turkish foreign policy moves in the context of Russia's war against Ukraine
According to this article, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has revealed geopolitical fault lines in an era of shifting power. This has led to a widespread view in Ankara that Turkey now occupies a key position in shaping the emerging multipolar world order in which the role of regional powers will be paramount.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
The world’s current setbacks for democracy and the rule of law include President Putin’s unprovoked invasion of a democratizing Ukraine and Africa’s string of military coups in states weakened by economic despair and closing civic space. The author considers that the Ukraine crisis emphasizes the imperative to invest in a more stable, democratic, prosperous Africa.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
The Arab world and the Ukraine conflict: the quest for nonalignment
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has provided a brutal reminder to the world - but especially to the West - that hard power matters and that employing military means to alter political realities has not been relegated to a distant past. The author comments that for countries in the Middle East and North Africa, this is something with which they have lived for decades, and their response to the war in Ukraine has generally been to remain neutral and pursue their own interests.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
It’s bifurcation, not bipolarity: understanding World Order after the Ukraine invasion
Changes in world order require policy adaptation on the part of governments. The pre-requisite for good policy adaptation is an accurate reading of the nature and magnitude of that change. According to this report, several years of the COVID pandemic, the United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and now Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have produced “heroic” readings of change which might not be the most useful basis on which to make policy.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
Americans’ preparedness to pay a price for supporting Ukraine remains robust
the author comments on the behaviour of the Americans regarding the war in Ukraine and their preparedness to support Ukraine even if this means higher energy costs and increased inflation.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
In Africa, Putin’s war on Ukraine drives food, fuel and finance crises
In the run-up to the next climate conference scheduled for Egypt this fall, Western leaders would do well to listen more to Africans and take a more nuanced view toward their energy outlook while balancing climate goals. Critically, this could help fill Europe’s energy void and African budget coffers.
ÖSTERREICHISCHES INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE POLITIK (AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russland am Westbalkan: gefährliches Agieren Moskaus im Vorhof der EU
Against the background of the war in Ukraine, this brief dedicates the question of Russia's role in the Western Balkans as a competitor with western liberal democracies. It focusses also on the effects of the war in Ukraine on the region.
30.6.2022
Cyber-attacks by Russia, Ukraine’s IT Army, the use of drones on the battlefield, digital tools for refugee assistance and protection services, evolution of social media warfare, Ukraine’s application to join the EU, implications of the war for the ECB, strengthening US and NATO defence postures, Putin’s weaponisation of wheat, stress on the world food system and risk of social unrest are some of the topics covered in this update.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
While Ukraine was not the first major conflict involving cyber, it was the first involving large-scale cyber operations. This report offers a preliminary review of cyber operations in the Ukraine conflict.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS), ETH ZÜRICH
The IT Army of Ukraine: structure, tasking, and ecosystem
The IT army of Ukraine was created in an ad-hoc manner without a clearly structured and proven plan. Born out of necessity, the IT Army subsequently evolved into a hybrid construct that is neither civilian nor military, neither public nor private, neither local nor international, and neither lawful nor unlawful. This report provides the first-ever comprehensive analysis of the IT army’s structure, tasking, and ecosystem.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia's war on Ukraine: timeline of cyber-attacks
This briefing provides an overview of cyber-attacks concerning Russia's war in Ukraine, also going back to 2014. It also examines counter cyber-attacks, the EU and international response, as well as the European Parliament’s call for stepping up cybersecurity assistance to Ukraine and for making full use of the EU's cyber-sanctions regimes against individuals, entities and bodies responsible for or involved in the various cyber-attacks targeting Ukraine.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
The article focuses on the war in Ukraine and the employment of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), commonly known as drones. More specifically, the paper analyses the use of such aerial vehicles by the Ukrainian forces against Russians, taking as an example their functions and effects in the Donbass region.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
Quels blindés pour les conflits futurs?
The paper reflects on heavy weapons and necessary changes related to technical and capability aspects, which should be made in the future for the next generation of infantry fighting vehicles (IFV). The different issues, needs and limitations are considered.
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Ukraine Essential: 100 Days Brief
This report, coming over 100 days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflects on central developments and key turning points in the conflict up to the present.
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Interim conclusions on the consequences of the Russian war against Ukraine
According to the author, seven weeks of Russian full-scale war against Ukraine proved the vulnerabilities of the regional and global security architecture, inconsistency of the existing international legal mechanisms, and impotence of the UN and the OSCE. Russian invasion has imminent backlashes. Should they not be addressed immediately, they could jeopardize and reverse the progressive achievements of recent decades.
BROOKINGS
Strengthening the US and NATO defense postures in Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Even if the war in Ukraine were to end soon, events to date have already transformed the European security environment. Among the main questions that must now be addressed is how the United States and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies should strengthen their military postures on eastern NATO territory in the future. The author believes there is now a need for a permanent forward defense posture of modest size and scale, going beyond the tripwire approach NATO has employed in the Baltic states and Poland since roughly 2017.
USIP – UNITED STATES INSTITUTE FOR PEACE
Another way to help Ukraine: prepare now for a peace process
The author explores the conditions and the role of the US and the EU in peace negotiations, setting out two essentials for a peace process.
CIDOB
City diplomacy and the war in Ukraine: towards a municipalism of blocs?
The war in Ukraine has placed international municipalism at risk of confrontation among blocs that could lead to rupture. According to the author, this would not only disable its potential in the area of reconciliation but could also make it irrelevant in the international community as a contributor of solutions to the many crises which, in addition to that of Ukraine, confront the world.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Ukrainian refugees: forced displacement response goes fully digital
Digital tools are being used at historic levels for refugee assistance and protection services to Ukrainian refugees. This report analyses the benefits and risks of deploying digital technologies at each stage of a refugee’s journey.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Quelle stratégie pour l’aide civile en Ukraine ?
Ukrainian institutions have overall withstood the shock of the war: the central government and local authorities benefit from a real legitimacy and a solid ability to govern. In this context, according to this study, priority should be given to strengthening the existing institutional system rather than creating new institutions or introducing international NGOs.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Research for REGI Committee: cities and the Ukrainian refugees
This briefing summarises the implications of the influx of refugees from Ukraine for European cities, and how cities can navigate challenges to continue being a positive factor in the support of Ukraine. The briefing is based on official sources and expert commentaries, including from national experts, and it is written in the context of the study ‘Social challenges in cities’.
CIGI
Social media warfare is being invented in Ukraine
When governments have “market power” in information space, social media appears to be a very powerful tool for shaping public opinion. When information space is contested there is a pitched battle being waged to set the narrative. How that battle will conclude, which side’s memes and narratives take root in which parts of the world, is as yet unclear. This article notes that the tactics and methodologies are evolving, and we are all witting or unwitting participants through our engagement with social media.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Peace versus justice: the coming European split over the war in Ukraine
The ECFR’s research shows that, while Europeans feel great solidarity with Ukraine and support sanctions against Russia, they are split about the long-term goals. They divide between a “Peace” camp (35%) that wants the war to end as soon as possible, and a “Justice” camp that believes the more pressing goal is to punish Russia (25%).
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Ukraina: od dekomunizacji do derusyfikacji (Ukraine: from decommunization to derussification)
The article looks at the process of making a clean break from the Russian legacy in numerous domains, which Ukraine undertook in the wake of Russia's invasion. The derussification includes banning of Russian political parties as well as elimination of Russian language, culture and symbols from public space. It is accompanied by an enhancement of Ukrainian identity and national pride.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
La humillación de Rusia, factor de división occidental
This article points out that despite the apparent common front, there is a growing divide in the West, and especially in Europe, over Russia and the war in Ukraine. Countries in the "field of realism" advocate a ceasefire, believing that Russia should not be allowed to win, but that it should not be humiliated either, because this will not achieve a stable order for the future. On the other hand, those in the "field of justice", want Russia to lose and fall into a situation that makes this kind of aggression and adventurism impossible in future.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
War in Ukraine: implications for the ECB
This document contains a series of papers about monetary issues and the implications for the European Central Bank (ECB) in relation to the war in Ukraine : "And now, the Ukraine shock", "The ECB's normalization path: model-rather than data-driven", "Is this time different? War, supply constraints and the resilience of monetary policy", "The ECB and the Ukraine war: threats to price, economic and financial stability" and "The aggravated monetary policy dilemma".
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Economic repercussions of Russia’s war on Ukraine
This paper provides a weekly digest of recent economic, financial and budgetary decisions and developments regarding Russia's military attack against Ukraine. It also highlights policy recommendations made in the public domain to mitigate any adverse economic, financial and social effects and to support economic recovery in the EU and the Euro Area.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
The Ukraine support tracker: which countries help Ukraine and how?
This paper presents the “Ukraine Support Tracker”, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. This fourth version covers government commitments made between January 24 and June 7, 2022 and has a new detailed overview on weapon deliveries. It tracks support by 37 governments, including all G7 and European Union member countries, plus by EU institutions (thus including 38 donors).
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Opinion: Ukraine’s war harvest: new delivery routes
The paper shows that Russia’s war against Ukraine has created an export crisis of similar proportions as the one that occurred during the fall of the Soviet Union. Agriculture has always represented a backbone of Ukraine’s economy, where in 2021 its share of Ukraine’s GDP was more than 10%. In the same year, the sector showed the highest increase in production – 14.4%.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Although most countries have condemned the Russian invasion, only a minority have nevertheless adhered to the economic sanctions implemented by the major Western economies. In this conflict, it seems that not only the inviolability of the territory is at stake, but also the sanctioning method of Western economies and, by extension, the geoeconomic vision that has governed the world until today.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
The war in Ukraine: more stress on the world food system and risk of social unrest
The war in Ukraine has highlighted the serious structural deficiencies of a global food system. Resilience to the challenges presented by the global food system is increasingly difficult to achieve. In the short term, this author considers it urgent to avoid the increase in famine in fragile regions and to avoid social unrest due to the increase in food prices. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to carry out a profound transformation of the world food system.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
Strategia della tensione e price cap
This article speaks about the risks of creating panic about the gas price rise, which could make the price increase even more, and discusses different solutions to this increment, such as a price cap.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia's war on Ukraine: implications for transport
This briefing discusses the impact, which Russia's war has had on transport, including infrastructure damage and major transport disruptions amongst the massive flow of refugees into the EU and neighbouring countries. The sanction packages led to traffic shortages, supply chain bottlenecks and the need to bypass traditional routes, thereby lengthening journey times and increasing costs. The paper reports on the EU actions and further plans to mitigate the negative consequences on transport due to the current situation.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
We must trash the CAP to counter Putin's 'weaponisation' of wheat
The author states that just as Russia is ‘weaponising’ its grip on the world’s cereals markets, Europe has been pursuing a policy of unilateral disarmament. He states that the European Union urgently needs to re-think its farm policies with the same vigour it is belatedly bringing to defence spending.
RYTŲ EUROPOS STUDIJŲ CENTRAS (EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE)
this brief article describes the 3 offers possible for the trio as EU candidate status, potential candidate status and the European perspective.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Can Ukraine become a member of the European Union?
This article studies the new EU candidate status of Ukraine which is considered to be the best guarantee of Europe’s future security along with the continuing US presence through NATO and the best way for the EU to remain true to its original purpose of giving the European continent lasting peace.
INSTITUT PRO EVROPSKOU POLITIKU EUROPEUM (EUROPEUM INSTITUTE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY)
The European Union’s position toward Ukraine’s EU membership
Despite Ukraine’s heroic efforts and the mutual desire for membership, the author considers that Ukraine's inclusion in the EU is years away. He discusses some of the pertinent factors, from committing to the EU values of “human dignity, freedom, equality,” to establishing an area of “prosperity and neighbourliness.” The process of transitioning to an EU MS is also considered and compared with the similar process for some other states, particularly Serbia.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Ukraine’s application to join the EU
This note contains links to many international think tanks with information on different aspects concerning Russia's war in Ukraine, such as food security, the militarisation of Russian polar politics and Ukraine's EU candidate status.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Los Balcanes Occidentales y la “Comunidad Geopolítica Europea”: una oferta que no se puede rechazar
Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia's request for candidate status to the EU has accelerated the debate about the stalled political expansion of the block. This article considers the issues of whether Ukraine should be rewarded with an "express status" as a candidate country along with Moldova and Georgia, and the proposed establishment of a European Geopolitical Community.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
This article considers the Commission’s opinions on the membership applications of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. A broad geopolitical advance is favourably viewed by most EU citizens and its main international partners, note the authors.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Partnership for enlargement: a new way to integrate Ukraine and the EU’s eastern neighbourhood
The report argues that Russia’s war on Ukraine puts the entire future European order at risk. It is already forcing a profound reconsideration of the EU’s and its neighbours’ interests. To address this, the report suggests that the EU should establish a Partnership for Enlargement that offers Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Western Balkans states concrete steps towards deeper integration – and a pathway to eventual membership. This new partnership should include three ‘pillars’: single market integration and the reconstruction of Ukraine; a reinforced commitment to energy security and climate transition; and stronger political cooperation in security matters.
GLOBSEC POLICY INSTITUTE
Will Ukraine join the EU? A special case of strategic importance to the EU
Had the EU leaders not taken a strategic decision in 1976 the future of democracy in Greece would be uncertain as well as its geopolitical orientation. The same applies to Ukraine now.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Ukraine edges closer to EU dream despite horrors of Putin's war
According to the author, the simple fact that modern Russia has chosen the path of dictatorship over democracy must shape the West’s response to the ongoing conflict and serve to guarantee maximum EU support for Ukraine’s further integration. Granting Ukraine candidate status is a step in the right direction, but as long as the country is stuck in the geopolitical grey zone, it will remain a target for Russian aggression and a source of international instability.
CARNEGIE EUROPE
Supporting democracy after the invasion of Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has altered the security and defense architecture of Europe and raises questions about longer-term trends. According to the authors, it also has the potential to reshape democracy support policies, changing practices of defending and extending democratic values and of interactions with autocratic states.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
¿“No matarás”?: el papel de la Iglesia Ortodoxa Rusa en Ucrania
This article analyses the role of the Russian Orthodox Church in the war in Ukraine. It has justified and blessed the war the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, a fact that is producing a new schism in between the Orthodox Churches of the world.
OSCE Network
Russia's war against Ukraine: implications for the future of the OSCE
This publication presents the views of members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) network of think tanks and academic institutions. It examines the fundamental consequences for the OSCE of Russia's illegal and unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
India to profit from the war in Ukraine and the Russia-China Joint Statement
The events in Ukraine have brought a significant foreign policy win for New Delhi. This policy brief puts in perspective the geopolitical position of India, between its long-standing strategic relationship with Russia, its ambition to face of China’s aggressive behaviour within the Indo-Pacific security grouping ‘Quad’, and the attempt by the US and its allies to draw India deeper into the Western camp.
HERITAGE
The U.S. must support Ukraine in a fiscally responsible manner
This articles looks into the execution of U.S. support for Ukraine, calling for it to be done in a strategically sound, fully accountable and fiscally responsible manner, without threatening the US economy and livelihood of everyday Americans. A stable and secure Europe is in America’s interest, and contributions to Ukrainian self-defense make sense.
JIIA – THE JAPAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The Ukraine crisis and its impact on Turkey and the Middle East
This research report discusses specifically how the regional states have responded to, and have been impacted by, the crisis, with a particular emphasis on Turkey, which is in a unique position vis-à-vis the war.
NUPI – THE NORWEGIAN INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The Ukraine war and food security: consequences for Norway’s partner countries
This brief examines how Norwegian partner countries’ food security is affected by the war; the list of partners includes Tanzania, Ghana, Indonesia, Mozambique, Palestine, Mali, Somalia, and Uganda.
15.6.2022
Russia’s political calculations after 100 days of conflict; Zelensky’s change of approach towards Russia: from soft touch to firm hand; Russia's war on Ukraine and related reflections on European security, neutrality and strategic orientation; proxy war or not, Ukraine shows why moral hazards matter; sanctions, conflict and democratic backsliding: a user's manual; and the untold environmental consequences of the Ukraine war, are some of the topics discussed in this update.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Ukraine: 100 days of existential war
The commentary looks at 100 days of effective resistance of Ukrainians and the attitude of president Zelensky. It also discusses the impact of the Russian invasion on the Ukrainian economy as well as predictions of a long war.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Moscow’s long war: Russia’s political calculations after 100 days of conflict
The article examines limited military successes of Russia in Ukraine and Moscow's tactics to achieve its political and military goals, i.e. the presumed minimum territorial gain and the systematic destruction of Ukraine.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Russia’s ill-fated invasion of Ukraine: lessons in modern warfare
This analysis examines lessons from Russian air, ground, cyber, and other domains following Moscow’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
The commentary focuses on the military situation in Ukraine, analysing subsequent phases of the invasion in terms of tactics, equipment and human and material losses of both armies. It also discusses Ukrainian and Russian perspectives for next stages of the war.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Walka o sprawiedliwość: kroki prawne Ukrainy w obronie przed rosyjską agresją (Fighting for justice: Ukraine's legal defence against the Russian aggression)
By initiating legal proceedings against Russia at international courts, Ukraine is trying to raise political costs for the Russian aggressor as well as to increase the diplomatic pressure to stop the war. The paper examines the chances of the order by the International Court of Justice being enforced as well as the role of Poland and other countries in supporting Ukraine's legal stance.
ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Zelenskyy’s change of approach towards Russia: from soft touch to firm hand
The paper traces the trajectory of Zelenskyy’s Russia policy from his presidential campaign of 2019 to the present day. It is argued that the evolution of Zelenskyy’s stance towards Russia, from bringing peace to Ukraine by reaching an agreement with Moscow to forging a new course of military resistance, largely followed public demand, which was limiting his space for would-be concessions.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
A brutal examination: Russian military capability in light of the Ukraine war
The authors assess the Russian military capabilities. They also analyse the NATO–Russia war games and the correlation of Russian and Ukrainian forces.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTE
The authors explore possible future developments as the war continues. Would the US continue flatly to side with Ukraine, even if it did not agree with the Ukrainian position, or would it press Kyiv to abandon large portions of the country to favour a negotiated settlement? Would the US in effect side with Russia as a way of ending the war? The authors pose these questions not to advocate Ukrainian concessions now or later, but merely to suggest that political, military, and economic considerations may make them inescapable in any serious negotiation.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia's war on Ukraine: reflections on European security, neutrality and strategic orientation
This briefing discusses such issues as European security, neutrality and strategic orientation and a certain shift in views and actions brought about by the war in Ukraine, which has shattered long-held views that war was 'a thing of the past' on the European continent. The new security situation has sparked debates in capitals all over Europe on security and defence arrangements, policies and strategic orientation, all of which are addressed in this article.
RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE KESKUS (INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: large-scale war and NATO
The author compares Ukraine’s military capabilities with those of some allies and cautions against making any hasty conclusions about NATO’s ability to rapidly reinforce and defend its smaller member states in a potential war. He concludes that NATO should deploy its forces and capabilities along the borders of Russia, ready to defend Alliance territory as well as providing all necessary support to Ukraine, enabling it to significantly degrade the Russian forces.
ILKO KUCHERIV DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FOUNDATION
Ukraine needs hard security guarantees, NATO membership preferred
The authors claim that Kyiv is carrying the bloody burden of the European war alone, though with significant western support. To prevent Ukraine’s and Europe’s failure in what appears to be a long-term struggle with Russia it is necessary to recognize and accept the necessity of the real security guarantees. It does not mean that Kyiv should refuse the idea of NATO membership. As in the case of highly likely quick accession of Finland and Sweden, Ukraine must have the same possibility to join NATO to counterbalance Russian threats of another war in the future.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Proxy war or not, Ukraine shows why moral hazards matter
It is easy to dismiss Lavrov’s claim (of NATO waging a “proxy” war against Russia) as another product of Kremlin myth-making. Yet there is a kernel of truth to it: the Alliance is now engaged in a Cold War-style engagement with Moscow. For the author, whether the US and its NATO partners are in a textbook proxy relationship with Ukraine matters less than the potential consequences if that relationship is not properly managed.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia's war on Ukraine: investigating and prosecuting international crimes
Active investigations into alleged core international crimes (which are classified as war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide) have begun, with the involvement of the Ukrainian authorities, the International Criminal Court, and other international organisations. This paper analyses Russian war crimes in Ukraine discussing such aspects as international crime, agents which investigate alleged breaches of international law in Ukraine, the work of Eurojust gathering forensic evidence and evaluation of open source intelligence.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
Le politiche migratorie europee alla prova della guerra in Ucraina
This article analyses the different challenges that EU member states - especially Italy - are facing due to the Ukrainian diaspora during the war, and suggest some solutions the EU block could use.
HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
The short-term economic costs of the war differ dramatically across the EU. This policy brief explores the economic impacts.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Economic repercussions of Russia’s war on Ukraine
This paper provides a summary of recent economic, financial and budgetary decisions and developments following the military attack against Ukraine. It also highlights policy recommendations made in the public domain to mitigate any adverse economic, financial and social effects and to support economic recovery in the EU and the euro area.
EUROPEAN UNION INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES
Sanctions, conflict and democratic backsliding : a user's manual
Until the annexation of Crimea led the EU to impose sanctions on Russia in 2014, few Europeans were aware that the Common Foreign and Security Policy entailed the imposition of sanctions. This brief analyses the circumstances in which sanctions are employed, what rationales guide their imposition and what impacts we can expect.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
Polluted to death: the untold environmental consequences of the Ukraine war
The author states that a war’s impact on the environment can significantly increase the number of people affected by hostilities, and also studies the environmental effects of the war in Ukraine: industrialization, nuclear facilities damage, toxic waste emissions and many others.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
La UE y sus amistades «energéticamente» peligrosas. Del gas ruso a las energías renovables chinas
The Ukrainian conflict demonstrates lack of energy security in some EU member states. Many countries support renewable energies. This article considers how changing the dependency of Russian fossil energy for another one might be risky, since many of these energies have Chinese origins, concluding that EU countries must take advantage of the political union to realign its energy security policies.
ЦЕНТЪР ЗА ИЗСЛЕДВАНЕ НА ДЕМОКРАЦИЯТА (CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF DEMOCRACY)
Can Bulgaria survive without Russian oil?
This paper shows how Bulgaria can survive without Kremlin’s oil. The country can get supplies of crude oil and other feedstock from non-Russian sources. Bulgaria can also get refined products if those are needed and can probably do that at a cost that would not be much different from what it pays now for oil and for products.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
The EU's response to Russia's war in Ukraine: a transformational moment?
In the first weeks of the war, the EU adopted an impressive series of sanctions and provided over EUR 2 billion of ‘lethal aid’ to Ukraine to help it fight off the invaders, a notion that would have been absolutely unthinkable only a few short months ago. The report concludes that while there have been some positive changes in certain policy areas (such as migration, sanctions, energy and climate), the use of the term ‘game changer’ is as yet unwarranted. The only real exception here is in security and defence policy.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Why Ukraine (and Moldova) must become EU candidates
In the fourth month of war, European support for Ukraine risks sagging. According to the brief, this includes dropping the ball on Ukraine’s EU membership. It states that denying candidacy would represent a symbolic debacle for Ukraine and for the EU, and a symbolic win for Putin. The Ukraine war presents the opportunity to revive enlargement. This is true for Ukraine, whose resistance to Russian aggression is inextricably tied to the values on which the EU is founded, but it is true beyond Ukraine as well.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
The Ukraine war and the new meaning of security guarantees for the Indo-Pacific
The author gives a short analysis as of the 2022 IISS Shangri-La dialogue of 10 June, looking at the profound consequences of the war for Euro-Atlantic security, and queries how – if at all – they will affect the security architecture of the Indo-Pacific.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
This article highlights the importance for NATO of taking care of the stability, resilience and development of the South, meaning the area from North Africa to Sahel and from the Balkans to the Middle East. This area is especially vulnerable during this time of strategic competition between NATO, Russia and China.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
Indian debates on the war in Ukraine: all roads lead to a consensus
The brief discusses the question of debates about the war in Ukraine in India's public domain. It makes two observations: first, only a very small number of actors are interested in the topic, and a certain consensus has quickly emerged regarding the Ukraine crisis. This consensus reflects a widespread view in New Delhi that India now occupies a central position on the political world stage and that it is a balancing power, able to relate equally with all parties to the conflict.
1.6.2022
Insights from Ukraine about escalation in modern war, the Kremlin’s aims and assumptions, starvation as a weapon of war, NATO/ the EU and the return of collective defence, what Putin's war in Ukraine means for the future of China-Russia relations, Russia’s de-dollarization strategy, and how sanctions on Russia might reshape the global financial system are some of the topics covered in the present update.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Premiers enseignements nucléaires de la guerre en Ukraine
The invasion of Ukraine by the Russian army on 24 February has an undeniable nuclear character. The purpose of this briefing is to analyse the first lessons of this conflict, in the field of power relations between nuclear powers.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Eine Chronologie der nuklearen Anspielungen Moskaus im Krieg gegen die Ukraine
This report analyses the allusions to nuclear attacks by Russian decision makers and the reactions of the West from mid-February to late April 2022.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
The coming storm: insights from Ukraine about escalation in modern war
This paper captures key insights from across these simulations based on two triggering events: a Russian surgical strike on a NATO logistics hub used to provide weapons to Ukraine in southeast Poland; and Russian use of chemical weapons along the Polish border while simultaneously mobilizing to threaten the Baltics.
RAHVUSVAHELINE KAITSEUURINGUTE KESKUS (INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY)
Russia’s war in Ukraine: the Kremlin’s aims and assumptions
The brief discusses Russia’s war aims. These are not limited to the destruction of Ukraine’s statehood, or even of the Ukrainian nation, its culture and language, but include altering Europe’s security architecture by undermining NATO and the EU. It also evaluates where Russia’s assumptions were right and wrong, as proved by the course of events after 24 February 2022. It concludes that Vladimir Putin’s regime has an inclination for miscalculation and apparently an appetite for future adventures.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
The Russia-Ukraine war at three months
The author looks at the different developments noting that the desired outcome to this war would see the Ukrainians forcing a Russian withdrawal or, at a minimum, getting Moscow to agree to a negotiated settlement on terms acceptable to Kyiv. Ensuring that Russia’s aggression fails and that Ukraine achieves one of these outcomes should be primary goals for the West.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Donbass e oltre: l’autodeterminazione invocata dalla Russia non ha portato diritti
This article analyses the meaning and application of the right of people’s self determination, a propagandistic tool that Moscow has been using to justify its invasion of Ukraine and, especially, Donbass events.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Beyond the “End of History”: nationalism, liberalism and the war in Ukraine
This paper discusses the different currents and philosophy used from both sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict such as nationalism and liberalism and analyses them through different examples of historical events. This analysis demonstrates how they become contradictory and clash in between them.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
In this document, man-made famine is defined as a war crime; the purposes it serves are explained, and the example of the current invasion of Ukraine is used to see how this terrible phenomenon, far from being diminished, extends its effects to distant places and times.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The paper focuses on Ukraine as a "viral war" insofar as the big tech platforms have engaged in it. According to the author, the two major global trends of digitalisation and their platforms are measured here: the techno-authoritarianism of Russia and China, and the US model of Silicon Valley.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
This article states that, contrary to what the Kremlin was expecting, the rest of the countries have taken firm positions to defend democracy and freedom; to fight against lies, censorship and manipulation; and to condemn attacks against the media, its staff and infrastructures.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Suministro de armas a Ucrania: un problema que ha creado otro
This article explains and analyses the declarations of the US Ministry of Defence about the provision of weapons to Ukraine which seem to reveal that the real intention is to weaken Russia to the point of preventing it from doing the same ever again. It also points to the new fear of a possible reaction by Putin who, seeing his plans contradicted, could escalate the conflict to an even more dramatic dimension.
HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Missing migrants: lessons from the EU’s response to Ukrainian refugees
The Russian invasion on Ukraine has led to an unprecedented response of the EU to people fleeing the war. This brief analyses how the EU and its member states address the issue of missing migrants.
INSTITUT DER DEUTSCHEN WIRTSCHAFT (IW KÖLN)
Integration durch berufliche Anerkennung für Geflüchtete aus der Ukraine
This report focuses on the potential for integrating Ukrainian refugees into the German labour market and the importance of the recognition of previously acquired qualifications.
ULKOPOLIITTINEN INSTITUUTTI (FINNISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
This paper examines Russia’s dedollarization strategy since 2014. It also analyses the role of Asia on the level of international reserves and trade settlements, and in the build-up of alternative financial infrastructures. It considers the implications of de-dollarization for the US dollar hegemony and the global financial system.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Slovakia: strategic dilemmas after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The paper suggests that the government needs to address strategic dilemmas regarding the long-term maintenance of support for Ukraine and its policy against Moscow, including measures to limit the import of Russian raw materials.
CENTRE INTERNATIONAL DE FORMATION EUROPÉENNE
The Russian-Ukraine conflict has had major implications on the energy landscape in Europe and around the world. Europe is dependent on Russia for over a third of its gas supply. The author analyses the five major goals of Germany’s G7 Presidency.
ЦЕНТЪР ЗА ИЗСЛЕДВАНЕ НА ДЕМОКРАЦИЯТА (CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF DEMOCRACY)
Can Bulgaria survive without Russian oil?
This paper shows how Bulgaria can survive without Russian oil. The country can get supplies of crude oil and other feedstock from non-Russian sources. And it can probably do that at a cost that would not be much different from what it pays now for oil and for products.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
NATO, the EU and the return of collective defence
Collective defence is back as the main strategic challenge facing Europe’s security architecture. The Strategic Compass, adopted shortly following Russia's invasion of Ukrainian territory, reaffirms the need for an EU security doctrine. The author analyses what the return of collective defence means for NATO and what this evolution means for the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
L’Europe dans la tempête parfaite
The author suggests that the "perfect storm", i.e. a violent one, that the EU is going through, is an opportunity to review certain certainties, to adapt its policies and to conquer the hearts of European citizens a little more, through efficiency and responsiveness.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Deciphering Turkey’s geopolitical balancing and anti-Westernism in its relations with Russia
The author believes that the war in Ukraine is set to increase the pressure on Turkey’s balancing policy, shed light on the role of anti-Westernism in Ankara-Moscow relations, and reshape Turkey’s relations with Russia and the West.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
A question of balance: India and Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This brief examines the nature and determinants of India’s Russia policy and analyses the consequences the country faces in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It argues that, while India remains dependent on Russia in areas such as arms sales, its partnership with Russia actually began losing value some years ago.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
Diverging US and Indian approaches to Europe: the problem of Ukraine
The US-India strategic partnership is rooted in the Indo-Pacific region. Nonetheless, developments in Europe, such as the war in Ukraine, have implications for US-India cooperation. According to the author, the Ukraine conflict could distract the US, diverting its attention to Europe, and impede its efforts to build Indian strategic capacity. As differing responses to the war could also create tensions between the two countries, the brief suggests that India and the US must reconcile their approaches to strategic developments in Europe.
THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
What Putin's war in Ukraine means for the future of China-Russia relations
This strategic update analyses China’s reaction to, and motivation in implicitly supporting, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It finds that, as long as Putin remains in power, long-term alignment since 2014 and a shared authoritarian world-view will cement closer ties between the PRC and Russian Federation.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Arktische Implikationen des russischen Angriffskrieges
The paper takes a look at the implications the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has for the cooperation in the Arctic region.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Ukraine's invasion affects food trade in a global food system centred on globalisation and corporatisation of value chains. The text focuses on the impact on the Middle East as a grain importer unable to be self-sufficient and with differences between oil-exporting countries and others with less prosperous economies.
18.5.2022
Why diplomacy should still be used in the Ukraine war, if the West had overestimated Russia's military capacity, how the use of information could affect the cohesion of Russia and of the West in the medium term, how EU energy policy should be adapted to serve EU geopolitical goals, the production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia, the winners and losers of the sanctions war, smart sanctioning Russian oil and gas, the impact of the war in Ukraine on the transatlantic relationship are some of the topics discussed in this edition.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The war in Ukraine : more Western aid and fear of escalation
The article comments on the US and NATO policy regarding the war and the prevention of a Russian victory, including the possible pressure on Israel to join the international measures.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Las otras guerras del conflicto en Ucrania: las luchas internas en Kiev y Moscú
In this document the author describes the internal wars that are happening in the power centres of Moscow and Kiev as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Is diplomacy between Russia and the West still possible?
The war is likely to stretch on for some time. The article analyses why diplomacy should still be used.
THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
NATO’s resilience: the first and last line of defence
This Strategic Update makes proposals towards ensuring that attempts to strengthen resilience within NATO deliver practical results. The recommendations are reached by answering the question of what resilience is, analysing NATO’s evolving role in issues of national resilience among its members, and outlining the political challenge of setting and meeting resilience objectives.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
European strategic responsibility must focus on Russia
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine presents a new political reality in which the European countries should focus on “strategic responsibility” rather than “strategic autonomy” to defend their continent. This policy brief argues that the Europeans should conceive their efforts in three steps: (1) military mobility, (2) resilience, and (3) enhanced deterrence against Russia.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
Is Volodymyr Zelensky the necessary hero or not?
The author of this article claims that the war in Ukraine has given Zelensky a kind of hero aura. However, wanting to maintain the uniqueness of this constitutive moment unceasingly and at great cost to Ukraine without allowing the stability of a possible peace to be achieved could undermine his heroic status.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Lecciones aprendidas sobre la (in)capacidad de las fuerzas armadas rusas en Ucrania
This article claims that, in spite of the apparently high quality military equipment that Russia seemed to possess at the beginning of the war, it has been unable to defeat Ukraine. It might be that the West had overestimated Russia's military capacity, its weaknesses seem to exceed its virtues and only nuclear arms seem to support its capacity of dissuasion.
CENTRAL ASIA-CAUCASUS INSTITUTE
Former Soviet states are distancing themselves from their old imperial master
This article exposes that for many of Russia’s neighbours, the war in Ukraine has accelerated the process of breaking out of Moscow’s orbit and abandoning loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime. While governments from Moldova and Georgia to Kazakhstan are distancing themselves from Putin’s offensive in Ukraine, the war is also prompting a deeper reexamination of the meaning of the past in former Soviet territories.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Propaganda masowego rażenia. Rosyjska telewizja w obliczu wojny
The article examines Russia's propaganda machine, its tools and channels, arguing that in the light of Russia’s underwhelming military performance in Ukraine and the negative impact of sanctions on the country's economy, Russian state media face a key challenge: to maintain citizens' support for Kremlin and the invasion.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Wounded but not broken: Russia's civil society in times of war
The article informs that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to increased oppression against opposition activists, NGOs, and journalists within the country. Civil society organizations are trying to survive under the new political and economic conditions, with many activists and experts fleeing Russia.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTE
Interim security insights and implications from the first two months of the Russia-Ukraine war
While Russia’s significant losses in this war will degrade its ability to conduct large scale offensive operations against NATO in the short term, the authors consider that it is too soon to write off the medium to long-term threat posed by Russia. The article calls on NATO leadership to use the knowledge about Russia’s degraded military readiness as well as the poor command and control to enhance the alliance’s conventional deterrence posture.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Putin’s imperial war: Russia unveils plans to annex southern Ukraine
Kremlin-appointed officials in Russian-occupied Kherson have confirmed plans to annex the region and incorporate it into the Russian Federation. The announcement underlines the expansionist imperial agenda that is driving Putin’s war while highlighting his intention to extinguish Ukrainian independence and redraw the map of Europe by force. However, many voices in the international arena seem to believe some kind of negotiated settlement remains possible. For the author, this is dangerous wishful thinking.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
The war in Ukraine, the strategic compass, and the debate over EU strategic autonomy
The author notes that the war in Ukraine has concentrated the European publics’ attention on the necessity for defence capabilities of high-intensity conventional warfare, and not just peacekeeping or maritime patrol missions. This kind of “geopolitical awakening” should help EU leaders deflect what had been a building crisis for European defence firms. The Strategic Compass presents a variety of terms to describe where it wants the EU to go next.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
Using information to influence the Russian war in Ukraine
On the basis of future scenarios for the war in Ukraine, this brief explores how the use of information could affect the cohesion of Russia and of the West in the medium term. The four possible variations of Russian/Western cohesion – high/high, low/high, high/low, low/low – indicate how each side would define the outcome of the conflict. These possible outcomes, in turn, generate lessons about how a liberal West might use information to tip the scales on an autocratic Russia.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia's war on Ukraine: the situation of LGBTI people
The paper deals with the situation of LGBT people as a result of the war in Ukraine. According to the authors, with each passing day, the chaos engendered by the war increases the risk of violence and exploitation exponentially, in particular for the most vulnerable, including women, children, Roma people, and members of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersexual (LGBTI) community.
FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN PROGRESSIVE STUDIES
Builders of progress: the war in Ukraine through the eyes of youth
The policy brief analyses the results of a survey of 18-38 year-olds in France, Germany, the UK, Italy, Spain, Poland and Romania on their views on the invasion of Ukraine. Among the findings are : a fear by a majority that the conflict will spread within the EU; belief that EU countries should spend more on their military and should speed up the transition to renewable energy; and support by almost half for the creation of an EU army.
INSTITUT DE RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES
The war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine is expected to have lasting political and strategic repercussions. It is also fraught with consequences for religious actors, due to the weight of Slavic orthodoxy in the ideological apparatus built by Putin, and the long-standing support, and strengthened in recent weeks, by the Moscow Patriarchate for the Russian government.
INSTITUT DE RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES ET STRATÉGIQUES
Les apories de la politique du Saint-Siège en Ukraine
It was on 3 May 2022 that the Pope took the decision to criticize Patriarch Kirill of Moscow for his attitude to the conflict and publicly denounced Putin's refusal to accept his proposal for mediation. This brief aims to qualify the place and scope of the Pope's action in the war in Ukraine.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia's war on Ukraine: the risk of trafficking of human beings
The article analyses the increased risks of human trafficking due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has forced millions of people, mostly women and children, to flee the country or they have become displaced within Ukraine's borders. The chaos generated by the conflict has exponentially increased the risk of human trafficking and exploitation, especially of the most vulnerable persons.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Stop feeding the bear : the case for a smart embargo on Putin’s oil and gas
This brief aims to shed light on the geopolitical context that Europe faces with Putin’s second invasion of Ukraine, and how EU energy policy should be adapted to serve EU geopolitical goals. After briefly summarising the last 30 years of Ukrainian history, the current state of the war is outlined. Thereafter, the vital role of fossil fuel money for the Russian war effort is underlined, before suggesting that an embargo on Russian oil and gas exports is probably an inevitable outcome.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
The European tank storage sector 2050 and beyond
As the world is aiming to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 and beyond, policy support, international relations and the development of new technologies are key determinants of what the next decades will look like. This paper seeks to distinguish long-term trends for energy infrastructures by analysing technological developments against the background of global climate ambitions.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Production and export of food from Ukraine during the war with Russia
Despite the war, Ukraine has managed to start this year’s sowing campaign, although the areas cultivated will be up to 30% smaller than in 2021. The article identifies some related problems: the risk of confiscating grains by Russian occupiers, a fuel shortage and the blockade of ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov through which the vast majority of food has been exported.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Impact of the war in Ukraine on the debate on the future of agriculture in the EU
The war in Ukraine has sharpened the debate about the future of agriculture in the EU. The revision of targets and the timetable of the green transition is advocated by big producers while environmentalists urge its speed up. In the face of political and economic instability, the majority of Member States are reducing their ambitions for environment-friendly reforms of the agricultural sector.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Winners and losers of the sanctions war
The authors analyse the possible consequences the sanctions on Russia will have on other countries worldwide. Their conclusion is that the “economic war” between the West and Russia will lead to changes in the geography of global supply chains and cross-border payments: as new actors are bound to emerge, Beijing is likely to benefit the most from this new economic order.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Monetary policy issues in the context of the war in Ukraine
This paper focuses on problems related to monetary policy issues in the context of the invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions are expected to have a significant impact on price stability, and possibly financial stability, in the euro area. In addition, the effective implementation of EU sanctions, targeting the Russian financial and capital markets, are in the hands of the European financial sector. All this has had and will have an impact on the operational implementation of the monetary policy and payments systems bringing new challenges.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
Conflict, sanctions and the future of world trade
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been met with unprecedented trade and other economic sanctions. This white paper describes five scenarios in this context of geopolitical tensions.
BRUEGEL
Cutting Putin’s energy rent: ‘smart sanctioning’ Russian oil and gas
The most efficient way for Europe to sanction Russian energy would not be an embargo. This paper argues that infrastructure bottlenecks prevent Russia from selling all the oil it wants to bring to market, even at lower prices. Europe can exploit this dependency by offering to buy Russian oil and gas only at a substantial discount. One way to do this is through an import tariff.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
The debate about economic sanctions as a tool of foreign policy is often restricted to a binary question of whether they work or not. According to the brief, there is ample support in the literature studying sanctions to say that this question is too simplistic. Even if they do not produce immediate success in reaching the main aim of the sanction policy, they do cause damage, in many dimensions, and such damage is non-negligible.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Efectos económicos y geopolíticos de la invasión de Ucrania
This analysis revises the economic and geopolitical effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with special emphasis on the energy markets, inflation and the realignment that is happening in the international system and in the economic international organisations.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
This brief suggests that Germany and Europe must strive for rapid independence from fossil fuels from Russia. Missing the national climate targets due to a delayed phase-out of coal threatens to have devastating effects worldwide and, through associated climate changes, could trigger new conflicts.
ENERGIEWIRTSCHAFTLICHES INSTITUT AN DER UNIVERSITÄT ZU KÖLN (INSTITUTE OF ENERGY ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE)
Impact of lacking gas supplies from Russia on security of supply
Against the background of the war in Ukraine, a possible complete shutdown of gas supplies from Russia, either triggered by the EU or by the Russian side, has become the focus of public and political interest. The objective of this brief analysis is to quantify the potential supply gap over the course of the year in a general manner, without explicitly modeling gas flows.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
The Ukraine war is deepening global food insecurity — What can be done?
The author analyses our interconnected world and its consequences: the food insecurity and conflict challenges.
RYTŲ EUROPOS STUDIJŲ CENTRAS (EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE)
Overview of events and processes in EU countries and UK in Q1 2022
In April 2022, it was announced that part of the US funding for military infrastructure development would be allocated to the UK. Britain has also announced that it will freeze the assets of Russia’s largest bankn stop all planned investments in Russia and will reinforce its defence assistance to Ukraine with a new support package worth £100 million. The brief analyses also measures taken by other EU member states in the context of the war in Ukraine.
INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR MIGRATION POLICY DEVELOPMENT
Could disruptions to Eastern European wheat spur displacement in Africa?
The author analyses the dependence on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. The majority of African countries are highly dependent on imports of basic food items for their survival.
THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
ASEAN: Seeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine through a glass darkly
Ahead of the ASEAN special summit on 12-13 May in Washington D.C., this strategic update confronts the dichotomy between ASEAN’s chartered principles on territorial integrity and the disunity of individual member states’ responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
How the Western-Russian confrontation will shake the Middle East
This article considers that regardless of how things play out in Ukraine over the near-term, it appears all but certain that Russia and the West will find themselves locked in a protracted confrontation for years to come. Syria and Iran offer useful test cases for assessing what to expect.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
The impact of the war in Ukraine on the Transatlantic Relationship
The article explores the implications of the invasion of Ukraine for the Transatlantic Relationship, including aspects such as the economic impact and the role of China. It highlights the possibility that a severe economic recession in the USA due to the effects of the war will favour the election of a president with nationalist, unilateralist, and EU- and NATO-critical views
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Russia’s Ukraine war could offer chance to resolve South Caucasus conflicts
The author analyses the limits of Russian hard power. It focuses on the frozen conflicts” states in the South Caucasus: Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
4.5.2022
Now in the third month of the war in Ukraine, think tank assessments include the failure to deter Russian aggression and the ideology behind it, lessons from previous wars, the sea change in Europe’s security order, Putin’s repressive media policy, the framework for prosecuting war crimes, economic implications for the EU, the prospects for reducing energy dependence on Russia and the impact on the transition to clean energy, tracking current support for Ukraine, its reconstruction needs, and the implications of the war for the Southern Mediterranean countries, the Eastern Partnership, India, Syria, Moldova, Turkey and Taiwan.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Failing to deter Russia’s war against Ukraine: the role of misperceptions
This analysis argues that clarifying why the deterrence efforts of the West – the US and the EU - did not work as expected could provide useful insights for building more effective strategies to stop Russia’s aggression.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
War has returned to Europe: three reasons why the EU did not see it coming
Before 24 February Europe decidedly defined itself as ‘post-war’. The article suggests that in order to create a future that stops perpetuating the past, the EU and its member states must start to critically contemplate how they got into the current predicament and change course. The author outlines three lessons that could be learnt from the past.
INSTITUTE MONTAIGNE
Ukraine: Putin's war to change the world
The article analyses the recent actions and approach taken by Putin as well as paradigm shifts in Russian politics which have led to the current situation in Russia and Ukraine. The author also speculates on Putin's personality change and attempts to find an answer to the question: Which Vladimir Putin are we dealing with now?
INSTITUTE MONTAIGNE
From Sarajevo to Mariupol: what the Yugoslav wars can teach us about Ukraine's fate
The article presents a comparison between the former Yugoslavia and the war in Ukraine - the siege of Ukrainian cities is reminiscent of Vukovar and Sarajevo, while Butcha has been described as "the new Srebrenica". While such comparisons can help guide our thinking, the author warns that they come with the risk of seeing parallels where there are none, creating an excessively skewed representation of the Ukrainian war.
UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Ukraine as Putin’s ideological project
The author analyses Putin’s authoritarian political rule.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
How wars end - war terminations: insights for the Russia-Ukraine war
The authors consider what we can learn from war terminations in the past: how long they last, how they end, whether they relapse, what factors contribute to their end, and what this implies for the Russia-Ukraine war.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
War in Ukraine, where quantity as well as quality matters
While Russian equipment losses are greater, Ukrainian losses could be critical. The author looks into the impact of the losses in equipment and the immediate needs.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Niemieckie dostawy broni dla Kijowa – kontrowersyjny kurs SPD
The article analyses the evolution of the German government's stance on the supply of weapons to Ukraine and examines the strong political and public pressure the SPD and its allies are facing in this regard.
GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS (DGAP)
Sea change for Europe’s security order
The war of aggression that Russia launched against Ukraine has destroyed the European security order. Germany’s government has defined this moment as a sea change (Zeitenwende) for its foreign and security policy. This policy brief outlines three different scenarios depicting different options for the future.
TIMBRO
Putins digitala järnridå krackelerar
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has stepped up the country's repressive media policy in an attempt to build a digital iron curtain around his own country. The author considers how alternative channels and criticism from cultural and sporting figures are affecting the information war.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Völkerrechtliche Verbrechen im Krieg gegen die Ukraine
This study outlines the institutional and legal framework for prosecution of crimes under international law committed by Russia against Ukraine. It does not however analyse to what extent these crimes have already been committed.
RAND EUROPE
Geostrategic consequences of Russia's war against Ukraine
After two months of fighting in Ukraine, some longer-term geostrategic consequences are coming into focus. The author considers that Russia may emerge as a massive loser, with Ukraine and its Western partners showing that aggression in Europe may not pay.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
NATO and Russia after the invasion of Ukraine
This policy brief considers Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the culmination of its increasingly militarized foreign policy centered around a small cast of decision-makers primarily in the military and security services close to the president. NATO is now forced to return to its original mission—to defend Europe against an aggressive and highly militarized Russian foreign policy.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
The Ukraine support tracker: which countries help Ukraine and how?
This paper presents the “Ukraine Support Tracker”, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war. Covering the period January 24 until April 23, it measures support from Western governments.
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND OF THE UNITED STATES
Helping in times of war: how Ukrainian NGOs built a support network
The war in Ukraine has caused the biggest humanitarian crisis in Europe since the Second World War. This article put a focus on the broad network of NGOs in Ukraine, which despite the worsening situation and grave risks, continues to help those affected by the war.
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
The dangers of Western complacency
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revived the Western alliance. The author analyses the economic fields.
BRUEGEL
For Europe, the war in Ukraine is a first-order economic shock. This paper raises three macroeconomic challenges for policymakers to consider: how best to use sanctions to deter Russia while limiting adverse effects on the EU; how to deal with cuts to real income because of the increase in the energy import bill; and how to deal with the increase in inflation as a result of higher energy and food prices.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
Financial aid to Ukrainian reconstruction: loans versus grants
This policy brief provides an overview of the discussion on the relative merits of grants and loans in the literature on foreign aid, including a short section on debt relief initiatives.
LUISS SCHOOL OF EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY
Post-war global supply chains: Europe must defend economic cooperation
The war in Ukraine is dramatically reshaping international strategic relations and economic alliances. The paper presents some of the dynamics at play in relation to trade and emphasises the need for Europe to persuade major global players to recognise common goods in areas such as climate change and economic cooperation.
VOX UKRAINE
Housing in Ukraine after the war
This article urges early consideration to be given to reconstruction after the war, in particular with regard to housing which will be crucial both in the short and the long run. A number of recommendations are put forward, based on an assumed precondition: upgrading the rule of law in Ukraine to an acceptable level.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Economic repercussions of Russia's war on Ukraine - Weekly digest
This paper provides a summary of recent economic, financial and budgetary decisions and developments following Russia’s military attack against Ukraine. It also highlights policy recommendations to mitigate any adverse economic, financial and social effects and to support economic recovery in the EU and the Euro Area.
WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES)
Tracking the costs and consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
The site gives an analysis of the humanitarian needs in Ukraine, the economic fall-out in Russia and the spill-overs to Europe and global markets.
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
Multiple battlefields in time and space
Tracking the status of this war is highly complex due to the multiple battlefields and time horizons through which it is being waged. Russia’s physical invasion is proceeding slower than expected. Although the financial bombs launched through kicking Russia out of the global payments system and decoupling it from broad swaths of international trade have already moved markets, the authors consider that these actions will take far more time than markets to impact Russia’s means of economic production and the economic experiences of ordinary Russians.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
The EU's prospects for decoupling from Russian gas
The Russian aggression against Ukraine and the cut-off of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria have strengthened the arguments for reducing dependence on Russian gas. As the prospect of a total embargo is still distant, according to this article, it is crucial to continue efforts in order to increase the EU’s energy security.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
Les dépendances stratégiques, une question de souveraineté
Europe is realising that it needs to reduce its dependencies to ensure its prosperity, secure its interests and retain control. This article looks at the EU’s priority to "progressively break away" from dependence on Russian hydrocarbon imports and argues that the war in Ukraine has brought an additional dimension, and the Union's objective has evolved from resilience to sovereignty.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
EU gas storage and LNG capacity as responses to the war in Ukraine
The paper deals with the question of Europe's supply of coal, oil and gas. The article discusses the current situation in the light of the problem of rising gas prices, the EU gas storage capacity, LNG as a possible substitute for Russian gas, EU action to reduce dependence on Russian gas as well as potential legislative steps and policy implications.
WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
This is how the war in Ukraine could affect Europe's clean energy transition
The author analyses the EU’s Russian gas dependence and the project of the European policymakers to build energy security.
KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG
A turning point for sustainability
Russia's invasion of Ukraine brought about a turning point in foreign and security policy. The authors consider that this also gives rise to revaluations in areas relating to sustainable development. It looks at issues, such as unilateral dependencies in the supply of raw materials and food, impact on the timeframes for EU Green Deal, and the role of countries of the Global South.
CHATHAM HOUSE
The Ukraine war and threats to food and energy security
Both Russia and Ukraine are important to global resource markets, particularly for energy, food and fertilizers. This article looks at the consequences of the rapid ‘spike’ in prices, which is exacerbated by disruption to supply chains and fears of potential supply shortfalls, and calls for measures to mitigate the ongoing impact and the longer-term risks of market disruption and geopolitical upheaval.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Tanks versus banks: Russian military versus EU geoeconomic power
The EU and its Member States (and NATO) are not directly involved in Russia’s war against Ukraine, but they have unleashed a major geo-economic offensive in response to Putin’s geopolitical gambit. This paper shows how they too, therefore, have to define precise objectives, and prepare for the new geo-economic and geopolitical world that will inevitably result from this war.
EURO-MEDITERRANEAN STUDY COMMISSION
Feeds filled with frustration: Southern Mediterranean reactions to EU responses towards Ukraine
Users on Twitter, particularly those from the Southern Mediterranean, have found the European Union’s political compassion to also carry a measure of inconsistency. This article points to the accusations of a double standard and hypocrisy and to the criticism about the lack of involvement in the conflicts of Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Israel and Palestine.
RYTŲ EUROPOS STUDIJŲ CENTRAS (EASTERN EUROPE STUDIES CENTRE)
In the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine, this policy paper focuses on how the EU reacted to support Ukraine through old and new European financial toolboxes. The author gives a closer look at the Eastern Partnership and gives recommendations for the EU institutions.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
From Ukraine to Taiwan: learning to live in a worse world
For the author of this article, the war in Ukraine can be understood as a first act of a war of greater proportions for global supremacy between the U.S. and China. Depending on how and when this war finishes, the starting conditions could be shaped for a historical period in which the «Thucydides Trap» would cast its inexorable shadow.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
The War in Ukraine and its impact on Syria
The text looks at the immediate effects the war in Ukraine will have on Syria as well as on external actors in Syria (Russia, USA, Turkey, Iran) and how the decisions of these external actors might impact the current geopolitical dynamics.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
La Moldavie face à la guerre : entre la prudence et l’abîme
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has profound consequences for Europe and neighbouring countries. This article examines the case of Moldova, a state wedged between Romania and independent Ukraine since 1991. In solidarity with Ukraine and defending the principle of territorial integrity, Moldovan leaders are trying to be cautious in their relations with Russia, both for internal and external reasons.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
Why the Ukraine crisis will not derail the Indian economy
Despite of the situation in Ukraine, this paper argues that the Indian economy is displaying and shall continue to display resilience. The arguments presented derive largely from the long-term structural robustness of the economy, which is expected to provide durability to the India story.
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ASIAN RESEARCH
The United States, Japan, and Taiwan: what has Russia’s aggression changed?
This paper considers Russia’s recent invasion of Ukraine and analyzes similarities, differences, and lessons from that conflict for a cross–Taiwan Strait scenario that involves the U.S. and Japan.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
The Ukraine war escalates demands to reform the United Nations
The Russia-Ukraine war is forcing the world to acknowledge critical failings in international institutions. The article focuses on reform proposals of these institutions.
27.4.2022
Just over two months since the invasion of Ukraine, analysis by think tanks includes Russia’s actions and the foundations of the war, the heightened stakes with the new offensive in east and south-east Ukraine, how the West can manage escalation, the new European security architecture, Russia’s information warfare, violence against women as a weapon of war, accountability for the atrocities committed, the influx of refugees from Ukraine, possible socio-economic consequences for the EU, the impact of sharp increases in food and energy commodities, especially in Africa, and the positioning of China, ASEAN countries, Turkey, Iran and Venezuela.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Terror, pacification, occupation. Russia’s actions in the occupied territories of Ukraine
The article looks at the actions taken by Russia in order to maintain control over the invaded territories of Ukraine, arguing that the Kremlin did not have a plan for the rapid development of the occupied land or for dealing with the civilians in a manner that would have effectively ensured their support. It led to brutal pacification, inept occupation and terror in the seized territories.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Russia’s war in Ukraine: identity, history, and conflict
This paper explains the erroneous assumptions the Kremlin made about Ukrainian identity that informed its decision-making and laid the foundations for its war against Ukraine.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)
Europe after Putin’s war: EU foreign and defence policy in the new European security architecture
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a game changer for Europe and the global system and a call for the EU to emerge as a coherent security actor, so the authors claim. Faced with a security challenge on a global scale, NATO remains the only game in town. The EU ambition of developing its strategic autonomy becomes practically meaningful only within the transatlantic alliance.
ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Climbing the ladder: how the West can manage escalation in Ukraine and beyond
This study seeks to identify key rungs on the escalation ladder around the war in Ukraine; assess how the current crisis might escalate inside Ukraine and across NATO’s eastern flank; explore how the US and NATO posture can prevent or limit escalation; and offers recommendations for how the United States and NATO can adapt their strategy, posture, and activities to manage escalatory dynamics.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Russlands nukleare Drohgebärden im Krieg gegen die Ukraine
Any conflict with a nuclear power like Russia carries the risk that nuclear weapons could be used. According to the authors, as long as NATO does not intervene directly in Ukraine and the Russian regime does not feel existentially threatened, both intentional and unintentional nuclear use remain extremely unlikely, though Moscow’s nuclear threats still entail significant negative consequences.
FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
Missiles hypersoniques : le cas du Kh-47M2 Kinjal
This article focuses on Kh-47М2 Kinjal, Russian nuclear-capable hypersonic aero-ballistic air-to-surface missile, which was employed in March in Ukraine by the Russian military forces. The paper discusses the origin, characteristics as well as the technology used behind this specific type of weapon and provides a broader description of hypersonic missiles pointing out differences and similarities compared to Kinjal.
TERRA NOVA
Poutine, les poupées russes et la vérité
This article provides an analysis of three texts which present the Russian authorities' point of view on the invasion of Ukraine : the essay by Vladimir Putin entitled "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" published in July 2021; the declaration of war speech on the night of February 24, 2022; and the homily of Kirill, Patriarch of Moscow and All Russias, delivered in March this year. The author concludes that these texts reflect a new Russian national narrative in the service of war propaganda.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Russland auf dem Weg in die Diktatur
The text examines how Russia has turned into a dictatorship and wonders if the immense pressure caused by the war and sanctions could lead to political change and the end of Putin’s regime in the medium term.
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
The “Battle of the Donbas” has begun. The author comments on two factors affecting the outcome of what is likely to devolve into a campaign of attrition : which army suffers the greatest losses and, once exhausted, can reconstitute itself for the next round, which might indeed be decisive.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Ukraine: the dangers in Russia’s new offensive
This article considers that Russia’s new offensive in eastern and southern-eastern Ukraine heightens the stakes both for aggressors and defenders and increases the imperative for democracies to sustain support for Ukraine, including with longer-range weapons for its defense.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Russia’s war on Ukraine in international law and human rights bodies: bringing institutions back in
The briefing discusses the war in Ukraine in the context of international law and human rights. It argues that while international law and human rights institutions can deliver little immediate relief for Ukraine citizens, the initiatives have important political functions. Most importantly, they prepare the ground to ensure accountability for crimes committed in the context of the war.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Investigation of Russia's crimes in Ukraine: a turning point for the International Criminal Court ?
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court has begun advancing the investigation of Russian military operations in the context of two proceedings: Russia’s confrontation with Georgia (2008) and the confrontation with Ukraine (since 2014). The authors argue that the investigation of Russia could be a turning point in terms of world public opinion toward the Court and increase its legitimacy.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
How to achieve accountability for atrocities in Ukraine
Assessing the actions taken by the international community in supporting accountability processes for the atrocities committed against Ukrainian civilians, this paper concludes that this united effort will require coordination, creativity and sustained political will to ensure that perpetrators are held accountable, and that justice is delivered to victims.
HERITAGE FOUNDATION
The U.S. should assist Ukraine in its efforts to prosecute Russian war crimes
According to this article, despite its established scepticism with respect to the International Criminal Court (ICC), the U.S. should assist Ukraine in view of the mounting evidence of shocking war crimes committed by Russia. By providing aid and intelligence directly to Ukraine, the Biden Administration would demonstrate its commitment to the rule of law and international security while also remaining consistent with the U.S. position on the ICC.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
The Ukraine crisis: women are fighting a different kind of war
Increasing reports of sexual and physical violence against women are surfacing in the wake of the Ukrainian crisis.This paper outlines how violence against women is used as a war weapon.
ТЕКСТИ.ORG.UA (TEXTY.ORG.UA)
One in every three news items is about the war or its consequences for Russia
This article provides an analysis (4-10 April) of what Russian state media and other websites are telling the Russian people about the attack on Ukraine. It concludes that Russian disinformers continue to dedicate one in every three news items to the war and its consequences for Russia.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
Russian Analytical Digest No. 282: Russian information warfare
This issue is about the tools that Russia has used against Ukraine, Poland, the United States, and the European Union, as well as the strategies that these countries have employed to combat Russian information warfare.
CEDOS – CENTRE FOR SOCIETY RESEARCH
This paper contains an overview of the data on the damage to education institutions, as well as of the key changes that have taken place in the organization of the education process in preschool, secondary and higher education in Ukraine.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
Which countries help Ukraine and how? Introducing the Ukraine support tracker
This paper introduces the “Ukraine Support Tracker”, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion on February 24. It measures support from Western governments, namely by G7 and European Union member countries.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Welcoming Ukrainian refugees in the EU : preliminary insights on socio-economic consequences
As a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, around 10 million of Ukrainians have fled their homes to find safety in other regions of Ukraine but also in neighbouring countries. This paper provides some preliminary insights on the likely socio-economic consequences that the influx of millions of Ukrainians in such a short amount of time will have in the EU.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO
La acogida a los refugiados ucranianos: algunos desafíos e incertidumbres
The arrival of several millions of Ukrainian refugees to the EU raises management, financial and integration challenges, but has unprecedented political support. This article looks at the current situation and the challenges in the longer term, given the uncertainty over the duration of the war and the volume of refugees it will produce.
FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN
Accueil des réfugiés ukrainiens : entre réponses d'urgence et solutions de long terme
It is difficult to estimate the impact that the arrival of almost five million Ukrainian refugees will have on Member States. The authors consider that, in the short term, it is important to ensure the protection and reception of people fleeing the war in good conditions, and acknowledge that, in the medium and long term, it is more difficult to estimate needs. The longer the war lasts, the more the needs of displaced persons will change in nature, both in terms of psychological and material support.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Human development in Putin's Russia
The paper examines the influence of Putin's regime and the possible consequence of the Ukraine conflict on Russia's population and human development aspects such as, among other, gross national income per capita, life expectancy and education based on rich statistical data.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
The topics in this issue discuss Russia’s relations towards post-Soviet countries, Russian politics and prospects of the Russian economy, Russian propaganda techniques and the results of a Russian public opinion poll.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Economic repercussions of Russia’s war on Ukraine
This paper provides a summary of recent economic, financial and budgetary decisions and developments following the war in Ukraine, including recent information on the EU sanctions regime, policies supporting energy, and economic and financial resilience in the EU. It also highlights policy recommendations to mitigate any adverse economic, financial and social effects and to support economic recovery in the EU and the Euro Area.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
What the EU budget can and cannot do in response to the war in Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has sparked a debate on whether the EU should issue new common debt to deal with the social and economic consequences of the war. Those in favour contend that the expected budgetary costs of the war for the EU will be too high to be covered by the existing EU instruments – the €800bn Covid recovery fund and the multi-annual EU budget.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Rising food prices: global risks and vulnerabilities
The author of this article states that the breakout of the conflict in Ukraine and the following imposition of heavy Western sanctions on Russia are causing sharp price increases in food and energy commodities - of which both Ukraine and Russia represent key exporters - as well as disruptions to global supply chains, impacting the post-pandemic economic recovery.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
Sanctions in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This briefing provides summarised and simplified information regarding the sanctions the EU is imposing following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It covers the EU framework for adopting and imposing sanctions; the sanctions EU is imposing; how these are being implemented and enforced and how the EU sanctions can be rendered more effective.
EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT THINK TANK
EU-Ukraine trade and investment relations and the impact of Russia’s war
The article discusses the consequences of the war for EU-Ukraine trade and investment relations. The EU is Ukraine's most important trading partner, accounting for more than 40 % of its total trade in goods in 2021. In turn, Ukraine is the EU’s 15th largest trading partner, representing around 1.2% of overall EU trade.
WIENER INSTITUT FÜR INTERNATIONALE WIRTSCHAFTSVERGLEICHE (THE VIENNA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC STUDIES)
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian, economic, financial and political crisis that will reverberate across Europe. This policy note analyses the short- and medium-term implications of the conflict.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Opinion on Ukraine’s application for membership of the European Union
This paper examines the request by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on 28 February 2022 for his country to accede to membership of the EU and advocates several steps the EU could take in response, following the Council’s invitation to the European Commission to produce an Opinion on this request.
TERRA NOVA
La Pologne face à la guerre en Ukraine
This article seeks to throw light on the recent Franco-Polish tensions over Ukraine, pointing out that even if the two countries have adopted similar positions on this crisis, they do not have the same reading of the security issues on the continent. Recent tensions between the European Union and Poland are likely to drag on, despite an improvement in the relationship between Brussels and Warsaw.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY)/ CENTRE FOR APPLIED TURKEY STUDIES (CATS)/ STIFTUNG MERCATOR /FEDERAL FOREIGN OFFICE
Relations between Southern European MS have often been marked by a loose cooperation or, worse, by logics of competition. Recent events such as the post-pandemic recovery or the war in Ukraine show that, when cooperation occurs, positive results can be achieved. This joint publication identifies several policy areas for fruitful cooperation between Southern European member states.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Flexible neutrality: Austria on the Russian aggression against Ukraine
The article examines Austria's neutral position towards Russia and its role during the war in Ukraine, only supporting Ukraine through humanitarian aid. It considers that the reason of such neutrality towards the Russian Federation could be related to close energy and economic ties.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
ASEAN wobec konfliktu na Ukrainie
The author examines the different reactions of ASEAN countries to the conflict, including votes within the UN over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Iran's attitude to Russia's aggression against Ukraine
The article looks at Iran’s cautious approach towards Russia’s war with Ukraine and considers whether Iran will actively support Russia against Ukraine and whether the war will have an impact on the full renewal of a nuclear deal with Iran.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
What Russia's invasion of Ukraine means for African governments
In Africa, the conflict is upending long-term trends across the continent and eliciting mixed reactions from governments. This article considers how some see this as an opportunity to build economic capacity from within the continent, whilst others have opened the door for the Russian government to re-shape its approach toward Africa.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
The War against Ukraine – 5 takeaways for China and their implications for the EU
The common western sanctions against Russia are undoubtedly unnerving from a Chinese perspective, and China’s possible takeaways from them will shape its future relations with the EU and other western nations. At least five take-aways are ready at hand : three of them are discussed in the first article and the other two in the second one.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
China’s Ukraine gambit: Beijing plays both sides
This article explores how and why Chinese leaders clearly believe China’s contradictory stance offers it the best chance of protecting Chinese interests and finding opportunity in this crisis.
UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE
Ukraine crisis prompts China to swing behind Myanmar’s junta
After a year of tentative ties with Myanmar’s democratic opposition, China has now dropped all pretension of hedging its bets and ramped up support for the military regime. This article analyses China’s real intentions and the likely implications of this move, calling on Western states who are helping Ukraine meet an existential threat, not to ignore China’s moves in Southeast Asia.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
China: Towards a greener BRI, but with Russia’s gas
This article finds that the different consequences of the gas market disruption due to the Ukraine crisis in 2022 has even further reignited the Chinese leadership’s concern over energy security. The situation could delay global climate action to a point that would make climate disruption on business even more severe.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Walking a fine line: Turkey’s mediation between Russia and Ukraine, and relations with the West
Russia and Ukraine have clearly been willing to give Ankara a significant role to play in talks on how to end the war and to participate in Turkish mediation efforts. This article considers how the position of mediator has eased Turkey’s situation not only in relation to some of the dilemmas posed by the war, but also in providing an opening for improving its relations with NATO.
ΕΛΛΗΝΙΚΟ ΊΔΡΥΜΑ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΗΣ ΚΑΙ ΕΞΩΤΕΡΙΚΗΣ ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗΣ (HELLENIC FOUNDATION FOR EUROPEAN FOREIGN POLICY/ CENTRE FOR APPLIED TURKEY STUDIES (CATS)/ STIFTUNG MERCATOR /FEDERAL FOREIGN OFFICE
Turkey’s pivot to Eurasia: the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
The author points out that Turkey’s position in a “post-Western world” is widely debated as Asia emerges as the world’s new demographic and economic focal point. The emergence of a revisionist Russia, threatening to destroy the global order in place since the end of the Cold War, sent out a powerful warning to its neighbours, including Turkey. Ukraine and the West’s response to Russian aggression refuted Turkish Eurasianist claims that Ukraine was “helpless” and that the West had entered a “serious and irreversible decline”.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Europe’s struggles for influence in Africa in light of the Kremlin’s invasion
Russia and Ukraine are important wheat suppliers for many African states, which are now threatened with high prices and shortages. The article gives an overview of what the additional political and financial costs mean for the start of the new EU-AU partnership.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russia's war with Ukraine will force the acceleration of food production reforms in Africa
The article discusses the impact of food shortages in Africa due to the war in Ukraine. According to the paper, the shortage of food already has socio-political consequences, as some African countries are very dependent on grain imports from Russia and Ukraine. As such, price fluctuations are already in place and exports of wheat, as well as other food products, are already banned within certain African countries.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Russie – Venezuela : un partenariat à l’épreuve de la guerre en Ukraine
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine on February 24, Venezuela has displayed seemingly unwavering support for Russia. This paper considers the possible implications of the recent resumption with Washington of a dialogue broken since 2019.
13.4.2022
More than 6 weeks into Russia’s war against Ukraine, think tanks analyse the origins of the Russian invasion and the pre-existing global divisions, the threat and impact of escalation, use of Russian propaganda, the war crimes being committed against the Ukrainian people, Ukraine’s foreign policy choices and its wartime information strategy, as well as assess the impact of the war on the EU’s asylum policy, its security framework and its enlargement agenda, and review the positions of Turkey, Israel and Africa.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
One month on in the Ukraine war: what role for the kadyrovtsy?
This article discusses the role played by the “kadyrovtsy”, the personal army of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, in supporting Russia’s military aggress in Ukraine. The “kadyrovtsy” group, and other loosely integrated Chechen units, have previously conducted special operations on behalf of the federal authorities in Moscow in Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and Syria in 2015.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
War in Ukraine, a punch on the international chessboard
This article analyses the military invasion of Ukraine in the context of geopolitics, seeing the invasion not as the beginning of a new global ordering model, but one more chapter in the long-standing competition between great powers. What is new is the possibility of escalation in the conflict that could lead to direct confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance, without any proxies.
ILKO KUCHERIV DEMOCRATIC INITIATIVES FOUNDATION
Ukraine’s foreign policy choices and responses to the Russian escalation
This article considers the long-standing build-up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and analyses Ukraine’s security options in the context of the war, acknowledging that it looks hard to find a solution that can bridge the differences of Ukrainian and Russian security perceptions.
BRUSSELS SCHOOL OF GOVERNANCE
Bargaining with blood: Russia’s war in Ukraine
This brief applies the bargaining model of war to examine the origins, escalation, eventual termination, and long-term settlement of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Ukraine: The shock of recognition
The author provides a historical perspective, in particular harking back to the broad anti-fascist alliance from around 1933 to 1947, regarding various factors at play in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Ukraine’s wartime information strategy
The article looks at the strategic communication policy applied by the Ukrainian authorities during the war and aimed at their own citizens, Russian society, and the international community.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russia’s wartime censorship and propaganda
The author examines how the war against Ukraine is being used by the Russian government to transform Russia into a complete totalitarian state and the censorship and propaganda of military successes are tools employed to this end.
CHATHAM HOUSE - THE ROYAL INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Ensuring Ukraine prevails is now the only moral choice
According to the brief, a successful outcome to the fighting in Ukraine is critical not only to Ukrainian statehood, but to the future security of Europe as a whole. That means the only way to secure Europe is to ensure Ukraine prevails – and is not subjected to a flawed and unworkable peace settlement that does no more than postpone its reckoning with Russia, while continuing the suffering of the Ukrainian people under occupation.
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Can Russia be held accountable for war crimes in Ukraine?
The author examines what war crimes have been committed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, how investigations might proceed, the role of the US in seeking accountability and the question of reparations.
ZENTRUM LIBERALE MODERNE (CENTER FOR LIBERAL MODERNITY)
Russland will die Identität der Ukraine auslöschen
The Russian attacks on Babyn Yar and other symbolic places and cultural monuments in Ukraine are similar to the practices of the Soviet Union and, according to the author, show that by destroying Ukrainian culture, Russia is trying to erase Ukrainian identity.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Justice in Ukraine may be slow, but must be steady
As the world is demanding justice for the atrocities being committed in Ukraine, the author outlines how achieving it will take both patience and determination.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
The war in Ukraine raises new questions for EU foreign policy
This article looks at how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted the EU to take unprecedented decisions on security, defence and EU enlargement and how it is also starting to shape the EU’s external action more broadly, opening new questions for Brussels and member states.
LUXEMBOURG INSTITUTE OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC RESEARCH
The Ukrainian exodus calls for better coordination in the European Asylum Policy
This policy brief analyses the current situation and give estimates of the number of refugees who could be distributed across EU27 destinations depending on their absorption capacities.
POLSKI INSTYTUT SPRAW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (THE POLISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Franco-Russian economic relations in the face of the war in Ukraine
According to the article, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine will affect the French economy in micro and macroeconomic terms. The limited reaction of French businesses to the war shows that image losses remain a secondary issue while the risk of losing capital is much more alarming.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Perceptions in Turkey about the war in Ukraine
In order to better understand Turkey’s position vis-à-vis the Ukrainian war, this article looks at how different actors both within Turkey’s ruling alliance between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the ultranationalist Nationalist Action Party (MHP) and those within the opposition relate to and perceive it.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Wariergardzie Zachodu – Izrael wobec wojny (The rearguard of the West - Israel's attitude towards the war)
Although Russia's invasion on Ukraine does not affect Israel directly, it is a huge political problem for this country. The article analyses the prudent position adopted by Israel, asking whether its balancing strategy will be plausible in case of possible escalation of the conflict.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Beyond Europe: the impact of the war in Ukraine on Africa
This article analyses the reasons for the way African countries voted the way they did at the UN regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the effects that the war and the sanctions are having in these countries.
6.4.2022
Now almost six weeks into the war of aggression against Ukraine, think tanks assess the impact of sanctions on Russia, the risk of their effectiveness being diluted, the need for continued pressure with the implications of extending sanctions to Russian oil and gas exports, as well as providing provisional assessments of the political landscape, the Russian air campaign, and the likelihood of a chemical and biological attack by Russia. They also look at how China, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa are responding to, or are impacted by, the war in Ukraine.
INSTITUT JACQUES DELORS
Un mois de guerre en Ukraine: les premières leçons
A month after the start of the war in Ukraine, the time for final assessments has unfortunately not yet come. However, a first provisional political assessment is particularly necessary because the conflict is at a time of uncertainty and therefore of tipping point. Indeed, as the author points out, the fate of Ukraine, the place of Russia and the security of Europe are at stake and the armed conflict has not yet decided anything.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Quelle campagne aérienne au-dessus de l’Ukraine ? Premiers éléments de réflexion
The Russian air campaign in the war against Ukraine is relatively weak and messy. What are the reasons behind the lack of Russian air superiority? This briefing provides the first elements of analysis.
CHATHAM HOUSE
Ukraine: Is a chemical or biological attack likely ?
This article explores key questions about chemical and biological weapons, including when and how they might be used by Russia and the role of disinformation, concluding that although large-scale use in Ukraine appears unlikely, concerns remain about targeted attacks.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Considering the No-Fly Zone prospects in Ukraine
In light of Russia’s ongoing aggression across much of Ukraine and the growing number of civilian casualties and refugees, there is increasing pressure for the United States and NATO to create a no-fly zone over portions of Ukraine. The authors outline the need for policymakers to be clear-eyed in their understanding of the tactical challenges, the desired end state, and escalation risks of any form of a no-fly zone.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
La relance de la défense européenne et le conflit en Ukraine: dynamiques et paradoxes
The article deals with the future vision of European defence, its dynamics and paradoxes, including the role of the USA and NATO for European security as well as implications of the current situation in Ukraine. It also develops a future defence scenario in Europe which could involve the establishment of collective European defence forces at the same time showing possible restraints and problems arising from this idea.
FUNDACIÓN DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMÍA APLICADA
¿Cómo afecta la guerra de Ucrania a las economías europeas? Algunos indicadores preliminares
This analysis provides some relevant data to quantify the economic shock that Ukraine's conflict means to Spain and the rest of EU member states. There are three main factors: energy dependence on Russia; the importance of the country as an export market; and the effects of higher import prices on the economy.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
¿Puede resistir las sanciones la economía rusa?
The article considers that sanctions from the West will cause damage to the Russian economy, but maybe not enough to stop Putin, since the economy has become very resistant over the years. It claims the only option the West has is putting even more pressure on, including by extending sanctions to the energy sector, since it is only the Russian people who can stop Putin.
TERRA NOVA
L’heure des sanctions économiques a sonné
The countries of the European Union have not remained passive in the face of Russian aggression against Ukraine. This paper questions whether by focusing their response on economic sanctions, have they chosen an effective lever and what damage the EU member states are willing to bear to stop the Russian offensive.
BRUEGEL
The decoupling of Russia: high-tech goods and components
According to this article, sanctions on high-tech goods supplies, combined with financial sanctions and other restrictions, will deprive Russia of a future as a modern economy.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
China can only offer an immediate respite for the Russian economy
The unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine are likely to have devastating consequences for the Russian economy and beyond. This article points out that how devastating they can be depends on several factors, starting with how porous such sanctions might end up being. The elephant in the room regarding Russia’s ability to bypass or, at very least, mitigate the sanctions is China.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Sanctions against Russia – What can we learn from the past?
The European Union and its allies have been implementing several rounds of sanctions against Russia in response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. This blog post assesses experiences with sanctions from the past and provides a brief overview of economic costs, reasons that sanctions fail, and implications in the current case of Russia.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE
Lessons from the Ukrainian cyber front
The author of the commentary discusses the issue of cybersecurity and cyber attacks in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. In view of the current situation, the text includes a number of lessons that can be drawn and offers suggestions for the developing EU cyber policy.
CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF DEMOCRACY
EU energy and climate security strategy to counter the Russian aggression in Europe
According to this policy brief, the Russian invasion in Ukraine and the resulting energy and geopolitical crisis have clearly demonstrated that accommodating Russia is no longer defensible. The most effective way to stop the Kremlin’s aggression is for Europe to ban oil and gas imports from Russia that could cripple the Russian economy in 8 to 11 months. This would need to be accompanied by emergency measures to protect vulnerable consumers and alleviate Europe’s critical vulnerabilities before the next heating season.
CARNEGIE EUROPE
Ukraine’s EU Membership and the geostrategy of democratic self-preservation
According to this article, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine requires the EU to upgrade its Eastern Partnership policy framework from non-committal to geostrategic. Offering Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine membership perspective would not only support the EU’s rhetoric of shoring up sovereignty but also defend democracy.
LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
Strategies for order in a disorderly world
This strategic update clarifies the terms of the debates between realism and liberalism, in view of the Russian invasion in Ukraine. It suggests that in a disorderly world, neither realism nor liberal internationalism offers a sufficient path to a stable international order, because of their respective exaggerated claims.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
Russian Analytical Digest No 281: Political Regime Stability / Universities / Agriculture
The topics of this issue discuss the political regime stability in Russia, the reliability of Russian opinion polls, the impact of the war on Russian agriculture and Russian universities.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Can the war in Ukraine revive the EU’s enlargement agenda for the Western Balkans?
This paper asks, even if the EU does grant candidate status to Ukraine, as well as Moldova and Georgia, where this leaves the Western Balkans and their long journey towards the EU which began over 20 years ago. It also considers what impact the current crisis will have on the EU’s enlargement agenda over the coming months.
INSTITUT MONTAIGNE
China Trends #12 - Ukraine: China’s "Rock-Solid" Pro-Russia Narrative
This paper assesses how the Chinese press are analyzing the war in Ukraine. It notes the large elements of convergence among literally all published analyses and opinions, but also points to some nuances and different accents, sometimes even within the same writing.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, far from being a stranger to Latin America, so far removed from the European scene, has had a direct impact in at least three fields. This article analyses all three fields: the economy; the global dispute for the control and access to energy resources; and the internal political situation of the countries concerned.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
What the Russian war in Ukraine means for the Middle East
This paper looks at how countries across the Middle East and North Africa are responding to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Citizens are feeling the impacts of the war in Europe on their food security, energy prices, and job markets. Regional governments are hedging their bets between Russia and the U.S.-led Western camp, playing on time to better evaluate the impacts of the war and to ease the restraints it is imposing on the fragile economies and social fabrics of the region.
30.3.2022
Almost five weeks after the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks analyse the complexities of the war, including the threat of nuclear weapons, the consequences for the global economy with the risk of a global food shortage, the EU’s energy dilemma, the plight of Ukrainian refugees and the EU’s response, the implications of the war for different countries and their relations with the EU, and the need for a plan for rebuilding Ukraine after the war.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Europe should avoid two traps as it confronts war in Ukraine
The author warns of two dangers for Europe in the context of the invasion of Ukraine: framing the war in civilisational terms and weaponizing multilateral economic institutions. The result could lead to a new Fortress Europe far from the original EU project.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Russia and Ukraine: talking while fighting
The author assesses the progress of talks between Russia and Ukraine.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Rebuilding Ukraine after the war
Though war in Ukraine is still in full force, the author argues the need for the Ukrainian government to already envisage and plan the recovery of its war devastated country.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Will Russia use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the nuclear context provided by President Putin has immediately returned the subject of nuclear deterrence to the agenda. This article considers the question of whether the nuclear taboo will be broken for the first time in 77 years, or whether the balance of nuclear deterrence will be maintained?
NEDERLANDS INSTITUUT VOOR INTERNATIONALE BETREKKINGEN - CLINGENDAEL (NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
Five questions on Western military support to Ukraine
A military analyst answers some of the most urgent questions on Western military support to Ukraine. Could this support stop or repel the Russian invasion? To what extent is this support a form of direct involvement? Could it lead to a proxy war?
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Intelligence and the war in Ukraine: the limited power of public disclosure
The war in Ukraine marks a new climax in the public use of intelligence by states. This article considers the impact of intelligence information and assessments revealed by the United States, the UK, and even the government of Ukraine about Russia’s intentions and plans before and during the invasion.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Invasion russe de l’Ukraine : une rupture politico-stratégique?
Eight years after deploying an integral indirect strategy against Kiev, both military and non-military, the launch of this war by Russia may have seemed paradoxical insofar as the Russian political elites have, for thirty years, conceptualized and favoured the circumvention of the inter-state armed struggle to achieve political objectives considered vital.
BRUEGEL
The decoupling of Russia: software, media and online services
According to this blog post, restrictions so far on software, media and online services in Russia have been imposed either voluntarily by firms, or else by Russia itself in order to restrict the flow of information.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
Russian Analytical Digest No. 280: Sanctions against Russia; Russia’s War in Ukraine on Social Media
This issue looks into the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy and highlights the so-called Fortress Russia strategy. In addition, the contributions discuss the role of social media platforms such as TikTok and VK and their potential for misinformation and the risks its users may face.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH - CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Dyktatura wojenna: władza i społeczeństwo w Rosji (A military dictatorship: the authorities and the society in Russia)
Although there are no credible sociological data on the public mood in Russia, the level of support for or passive acceptance of "the special operation" is rather high. Considering the information blockade, the propaganda offensive and Russia's elite attitudes, this article claims that the deepening isolation of Russia will be accompanied by a neo-totalitarian internal policy.
KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG
Die Sozialen Medien im Ukrainekrieg : Militärische Aufklärung und der Kampf um die Deutungshoheit
Military and ideological conflicts have been conducted for years via social media. This article points to a new phenomenon of warfare in Ukraine. Private individuals and Ukrainian soldiers use mobile phones to record troop movements, destroyed military equipment, bombings and spread them on social media.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Die religiöse Dimension des Krieges in der Ukraine und die globalen Konsequenzen
The religious dimension of the war in Ukraine has mainly been discussed among theologists. The article comments on the extent of the ideologic involvement of the Russian orthodox church in the war and the global consequences of the politics of the Russian orthodox church.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
From ambiguity to adaptation: how to shift gears in EU-Ukrainian relations
The article discusses possible ways for Ukraine to join the EU, among them a multi-staged accession.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
La crisis humanitaria de Ucrania debe forzar avances inesperados en el sistema de asilo europeo
The article argues that the Ukrainian refugee crisis is putting the Common European Asylum System (CEAS) to the test. The high level of consensus and the current position of traditionally more reticent countries opens up new possibilities for rapid progress on agreements within the Pact on Migration and Asylum to reform the CEAS.
HERTIE SCHOOL – JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Ukraine‘s refugee plight - A paradigm shift for the EU’s asylum policy?
The policy brief discusses why a mechanism for the fair sharing of responsibility is urgently needed and outlines what such a scheme could look like.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
The Ukraine conflict, the largest European diaspora of the twenty first century?
The invasion of Ukraine launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin is the first major aggression in Europe since World War II. It has consequently caused the largest exodus of refugees. The author expresses concern about how long the European protection to these refugees will last and if it will become a humanitarian crisis.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
Guerre en Ukraine: la population, otage d’une nouvelle stratégie russe de«pourrissement» ?
This article focuses on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequences the armed conflict has on the Ukrainian civilian population. It discusses issues related to Ukrainian massive migration in the face of the armed conflict and analyses how the migratory flows in general seem to be have been used by Putin to achieve his objective of destabilizing and causing chaos in Europe.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Putin’s war and the EU’s response – How European Member States have united to help refugees
The article gives an overview of how European member states have reacted to the recent influx of Ukrainian refugees. It briefly discusses the implementation of the temporary protection directive and questions whether the current situation could lead to a comprehensive reform of the Common European Asylum System.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK (SWP)
Flucht aus der Ukraine: Mobilität erhalten und langfristig denken!
The EU has activated the Temporary Protection Directive for the first time in response to the largest movement of refugees since the Second World War. This article considers what the next steps should be for dealing with the influx of refugees from Ukraine.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH - CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Gospodarcze skutki wojny: widmo głębokiego kryzysu w Rosji (The economic consequences of the war: a looming crisis in Russia)
The article outlines the sanctions imposed on Russia so far, describes the reaction of Kremlin and the first consequences of the measures.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Sanction-proof or sanction-hit : how can the EU make Putin’s evil war even more costly
The EU, together with its allies, has shown impressive unity in imposing severe sanctions against Russia. This Policy Insight reviews the EU’s sanctions against Russia and looks at the possibilities to increase their effectiveness, drawing upon lessons learned in the past.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
How the war against Ukraine can change the global economy
The analysts present five central consequences of the Russian war on Ukraine for global economic relations in the coming years: economic dependencies will be reduced, geopolitical considerations will increasingly shape foreign trade relations, there will be a threat of a bifurcation of the global economy, digitalization will shorten the global value chain, the attractiveness of the ecological transformation is accelerated.
DEUTSCHE GESELLSCHAFT FÜR AUSWÄRTIGE POLITIK (GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS)
The China factor in Russia’s war: implications for Europe
In Russia’s war against Ukraine, the fronts are clear: the EU supports Ukraine; China stands by Russia. If the EU deals with China, it must defend its own values and interests, mind its long-term room for maneuver, and learn to defuse tensions. This analysis, which is based on five scenarios, shows how.
INSTITUT FÜR WELTWIRTSCHAFT KIEL (KIEL INSTITUTE FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY)
Long-run impacts of the conflict in Ukraine on food security in Africa
Many African countries heavily rely on imports of agricultural commodities and agricultural inputs from Ukraine and Russia, for example wheat, other grains, and fertilizer. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted global access to grains. This policy brief investigates the possible long-term consequences of the conflict on food security in Africa.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Important factors in the global economy have long since changed and these changes have been magnified by Putin’s war on Ukraine. This article examines the challenges which economic policy in particular will be facing, including factors relating to scarcity of food.
TERRA NOVA
Russia's war on Ukraine risks causing a global food shortage. To avoid this, the authors question whether Europe should reverse its agricultural strategy in order to rapidly increase production and yields. In other words, should ecological transition be sacrificed in the name of stability?
E3G
EU can stop Russian gas imports by 2025: accelerating clean energy avoids fossil lock-in
The invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the geopolitical liability for the EU from fossil fuel imports from autocratic regimes. This analysis considers ways for the EU to replace Russian gas imports in the short term, taking critical decisions over investment in infrastructure and economic relationships.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Europe’s Russian energy dilemma
The authors of this article claim that the EU should adopt a phased approach to energy sanctions on Russia. This would be more effective than a rushed embargo and would help preserve European unity.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Life punishes those who come too late
This article states that the EU should immediately impose a temporary embargo on Russian energy imports. According to the author, if the union waits any longer, it will be too late – and the political costs could be huge.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
This short commentary demonstrates how the war has caused countries to revise their risk assessments. It is not only about doing business or investing in Russia, but also about business in other non-rule-of-law authoritarian states, where foreigners have little recourse if things go wrong.
TERRA NOVA
L’Europe à l’épreuve de la guerre
The divisions that had settled between Europeans and created repeated confrontations – North against South, East against West, "frugal" against spenders - have all been upset by the three major crises that have followed one another at an accelerated pace in recent years: Brexit, Covid, Ukraine. This article considers the impact on the European project.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Russia–Ukraine talks and the indispensable role of the US and Europe
The war in Ukraine is a catastrophic event that presents more risks than solutions. However, one thing stands firm for the author of this article: US and European involvement is a necessary condition for the establishment of a durable peace.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The United States and the Ukrainian crisis: implications for the internal arena and the great power competition
The response by the United States to the Ukrainian crisis is focused on efforts to send military aid, maintain and strengthen coordination with allies in Europe and NATO, and intensify the economic and political isolation of Russia. This article analyses the implications of the crisis for the US.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH - CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Chiński dylemat. Rosyjska inwazja na Ukrainę a sytuacja strategiczna Chin (A Chinese dilemma. The Russian invasion in Ukraine and the strategic situation of China)
The efficient resistance of Ukraine, the united European reaction and heavy sanctions on Russia are creating a new unfavourable strategic situation for China. The author reflects on a possible evolution of the Chinese stance towards the war.
GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP)
The China factor in Russia’s war : implications for Europe
In Russia’s war against Ukraine, the European Union supports Ukraine; China stands by Russia. While the conflict is exacerbating long-term regulatory, geopolitical, and economic divergences between the EU and China, their short-term priorities overlap. Both are striving for a negotiated solution. This analysis shows how the EU could defend its own values and interests, mind its long-term room for manoeuver, and learn to defuse tensions.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Keeping China out of the Ukraine conflict
This article states that keeping China out of the Ukraine-Russia conflict will be key for keeping global order, despite the damage already done to Ukraine. The author believes that liberal democracies can survive Putin’s Russia as long as it remains an isolated pariah; and Western diplomats should endeavour to achieve so.
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
The War in Ukraine: troubling lessons for Taiwan
In the light of the war in Ukraine, this article comments on the question for Taiwan of how far Europe and the United States would go to its aid in the event of an attack by China.
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
How do India’s choices on the Ukraine crisis affect its foreign relations?
The author considers the consequences of India's “balancing act” on the Russia-Ukraine war and its impact on India's security and geopolitical interests with regard to China.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
L’ambivalence du Moyen-Orient face à la guerre en Ukraine
This paper analyses the position of some states, traditionally allies of the West, towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Countries such as Israel, Turkey or Egypt did not react or, at least at first, condemn the war in Ukraine. This has raised a series of questions about their view on the Russian aggression as well as their relations with Russia and suggests that the states in question are performing a balancing act between their American and Russian ally.
UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russia’s war on Ukraine: consequences for Georgia and Moldova
This article looks at how Russia's unprovoked and illegal large-scale invasion of Ukraine has already had significant repercussions for the other two Eastern Partnership states with association agreements with the EU.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: the Palestinians and the crisis in Ukraine
While most Western countries condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the United National General Assembly, the Palestinian Authority remained silent. The Palestinians regard the Ukrainian struggle against the invasion as competing with them for international attention, claims this article.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The war in Ukraine and strategic hedging by Arab countries
Central Arab countries that are seen as pro-Western have chosen an ostensibly neutral position regarding the war in Ukraine. Several oil producers in the Gulf have gone even further and seek to take advantage of the war to improve their standing. This article comments on the hedging policy by Arab countries.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
War in Ukraine: Asia takes sides
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has split Asia in two parts. On one side stand the most advanced economies in the region and the majority of Asian members; on the other side, countries like Vietnam, Sri Lanka and Pakistan that opted for neutrality, along with India and China. According to the author, such a division will affect the regional blocks in the making in the Indo-Pacific: China and the countries keen on containing China.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO (ELCANO ROYAL INSTITUTE)
La guerra y el resto del mundo
This article analyses how this war is not only a conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but also between the West and the East. Some actors are using this situation to move forward in their own external politics and security and historical vindications. For example, wounds in the relationship in between China and the US seem to be reopening. Global governance - such as the UN's - seems increasingly complicated and the world increasingly dangerous.
EUROPEAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
Putin’s war on Ukraine: aftershocks in the Europe-Africa partnership
This articles studies how the Russian-Ukraine war looks set to create daunting challenges for African countries in areas such as food and energy security. The author encourages Europe to show solidarity with them.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Never waste a crisis: the war on Ukraine as a catalyst in the Balkans
This article looks at the Ukraine-Russia war as a warning to the leaders in the Western Balkans and as a catalyst for the EU. It is time for the first to move on and for the second to offer support, especially for the youth in the Balkans, and a clear prospect of membership.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
A Russia strategy must look South: the Caucasus impacts Europe through the Eastern Mediterranean
This articles underlines the essentiality of a good neighbour relationship and coordination between the three seas - Baltic, Black and Mediterranean Seas- in order to improve and maintain an European security and prosperity, especially now on the face of the current events in between Ukraine and Russia.
23.3.2022
Almost one month after the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks consider the rising stakes in the struggle for democracy in Europe and beyond, and analyse the challenges of shaping an endgame, Ukraine’s application for EU membership, the nature of the war, including the cyber security threat, the use of disinformation and the role of cryptocurrencies. Others examine how the security crisis is turning into a massive humanitarian crisis, the situation of refugees in Poland and the implications of the war, especially in the security and energy domains, not only in Ukraine and the EU, but also on other regions in the world.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE
Increasing authoritarianism in some countries, such as Russia, coupled with gradual democratic erosion around the world, poses an exceptional threat to a rules-based global order, and consequently to peace and prosperity. The authors consider that the invasion of Ukraine is the most blatant and tragic realization of this threats.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The war in Ukraine: the challenge of shaping an endgame
The author considers that the longer the war continues, the chances increase for escalation to new levels that neither side wants. Therefore, before the situation is completely out of control, there must be a dialogue with Russia that can lead to an end to the war.
ZENTRUM LIBERALE MODERNE (CENTER FOR LIBERAL MODERNITY)
Zum Stand der russischen Invasion in der Ukraine – Was Deutschland jetzt tun kann und muss
The author gives a military expert analysis about Russian war targets, nuclear escalation, Ukrainian defence and why the date of April 1, 2022 is important from a Russian point of view.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
The war in Ukraine: a crowd-sourced total global war?
The author sees in the world’s response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine the emergence of a new approach to countering authoritarian aggression or even a new approach to war itself. The famous Prussian theorist Carl von Clausewitz specifically said: “War is a mere continuation of policy ‘with the addition of other means’ (mit Einmischung anderer Mitteln).” This article claims the world is responding to Putin with the addition of other means like never before.
GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP)
The authors outline that in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cyber threat landscape is quickly evolving. Now, Europe, the United States, and like-minded democracies must prepare for persistent “gray zone” conflict in their own cyberspaces.
INSTITUTE FOR PEACE SUPPORT AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT
Security Turnaround after Ukraine: Regional and Institutional Implications
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine represents a turning point for European and Austrian security policy. It calls into question previously established paradigms of international security and international crisis and conflict management. Regardless of the actual outcome of the war, this paper assumes a fundamental paradigm shift in international relations.
CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas
Three weeks after the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s political objectives have not been achieved. Taking into account the resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces persists, the morale of Ukrainian society remaining high, and the very serious sanctions imposed by the international community on Russia, this article considers the prospects for evolution of Russian policy.
EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE & EGMONT ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
The Versailles declaration, adopted by EU leaders on 10 and 11 March, acknowledges that Ukraine belongs to the ‘European family’. The Council has already invited the European Commission to submit its opinion in accordance with Article 49 TEU. The author notes that despite this support for – and recognition of – Ukraine’s application, the road to EU membership remains a long one.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Beitrittsgesuch der Ukraine setzt EU unter Druck
The paper discusses the consequences of Ukraine’s EU membership application.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS
¿Comprendemos la desinformación?: Rusia y la evolución de las medidas activas.
This article explores institutional practise of disinformation and looks in particular at the 'active measures' concept, born in 1963 in the URSS which, taking disinformation as a central element, approaches a broader spectrum of activities. It is argued that these kind of operations, key for external Russian politics during the Cold War, are still alive today. They have only evolved and revived.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Ukraine and the global whole-of-society response: a double-edged sword?
In past wars people often felt powerless, reading newspapers or watching on television as events unfolded far away. This article claims we are going through a new era of hyper-empowered citizens and private actors who can have very real influence on events and possibly even shape their outcomes, e.g. by debunking disinformation (for example, in Russia's media), sharing through social media, or hacking as a form of activism.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Putin’s war: driving Ukrainians into hunger - and the rest of the world as well
The article reflects on how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is turning a security crisis into a massive health and humanitarian crisis, not only for the 4.5mn Ukrainians displaced by the conflict thus far or the others being shelled into submission in several Ukrainian cities, but also for millions elsewhere in the world. For instance, many of the countries seeing their food insecurity grow by the day are countries in the Middle East and Africa that Putin has been courting of late.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
Mitigating the gendered effects of Ukraine’s refugee crisis
Over three million Ukrainians have fled the Russian invasion that began on 24 February. While EU states have granted arrivals real benefits, Kyiv’s rule holding back conscription-age men increases dangers to the families leaving. This article discusses how states should ensure that all refugees get the help they need.
FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK)
Ukrainian refugees in Poland: current situation and what to expect
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced millions to flee from the war zone. This brief addresses Ukrainian refuge in Poland. It provides an overview of the current situation, discusses the ongoing solutions and potential future challenges, and stresses the key areas for urgent policy intervention.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Could the Ukraine crisis accelerate a longer-term policy shift away from fossil fuels?
The author analyses the impact of the Ukraine crisis. According to this article, the crisis will accelerate a shift to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Cryptocurrency’s role in the Russia-Ukraine crisis
Finance typically plays a major role in wars, but the Russia-Ukraine war is the first major conflict with a prominent role for cryptocurrencies. The authors outline the prominence of crypto in this conflict, which could influence global perceptions of the technology, including among governments considering new regulations.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
The need and opportunity for Europe’s energy independence
The imposed economic sanctions against Russia will be effective to a certain extent. The article claims that it is about time for Europe to come to a bold decision and pare down its dependency on Russian energy to zero. This is an extremely complicated decision, but the author argues that, as always, no geopolitical plan is viable if it is not economically feasible and sustainable, and vice versa.
INSTITUT FRANÇAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Facing the Russian aggression of Ukraine, the European countries are reconsidering their energy situation and in particular their strong addiction to Russian fossil gas imports. While the United States have decided an embargo on oil and gas imports from Russia, many European countries are reluctant to follow, as this economic sanction on Russia would also have heavy economic consequences for countries that are highly dependent on Russia for their fossil fuels consumption.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
Can the EU do without Russian gas?
Today, the European Union still relies on Russia for approximately 45% of its gas needs, with some EU countries – such as Italy – being more vulnerable than others. However, Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine is forcing Brussels to make difficult choices. This article analyses the arguments that affirm the EU can live without Russian gas, and also those saying it cannot.
BRUEGEL
Can Europe manage if Russian oil and coal are cut off ?
According to the authors, a stop to Russian oil and coal supplies would push Europe into a short and painful adjustment period. But if managed well, disruptions would remain temporary.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
We will need a 'New Deal' to engage with a post-Putin Russia
As missiles and artillery shells rain mercilessly on Ukraine, the author suggests that policy analysts should ask themselves whether tougher Western sanctions are hardening rather than softening Russia’s resistance to peace talks.
ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI
Russian Energy Exports and the Conflict in Ukraine: What Options for Italy and the EU?
Putin’s war on Ukraine has shaken the European Union to its core. This paper considers that implications will be long lasting in numerous domains, but it is in the security and energy dimensions that concrete changes are already becoming evident as the EU fast tracks its strategy for energy diversification.
CHATHAM HOUSE
Ukraine crisis could trigger cascading risks globally
According to the authors, the effects on the wider world from the Ukraine invasion go far beyond the waves of shock and horror being felt from this escalating conflict.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS)
In this article a strong focus is placed on the strategic implications of the war in Ukraine for the Baltic states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as well as neighbouring Poland, all of which are NATO's direct borders with Russia. The possibility that these states could be priority targets of a Russian offensive cannot be excluded.
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO
The Ukraine war and Turkey as a “Third Pole” in a new international order
After Russia launched a large-scale military invasion of Ukraine the international community reacted immediately and decisively against it, imposing a series of costly sanctions. Turkey was among the countries that refused to follow suit, instead attempting to act as a mediator between the warring camps. According to this article, this approach reveals the continuation of certain Turkish foreign policy tendencies, and aims to secure a new international role for Turkey.
ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE
Iran, Russia and the JCPOA: Is a year of negotiations at risk?
The implications of the war in Ukraine go well beyond Europe. In the Middle East, the Iran nuclear talks may suffer from the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. After eleven months, the talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal were challenged by a last-minute Russian demand. This article reflects on how, by connecting the Iran deal with the Ukraine war, the Russian government risked casting a shadow over the negotiations.
LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE
Le pragmatisme de l’Inde face à la guerre en Ukraine
The article examines India's posture towards the current situation in Ukraine and its refusal to distance itself from Moscow, which can be observed by its abstention for the third time in a vote at the General Assembly of United Nations on a resolution deploring Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The article discusses Moscow-New Delhi relations and possible consequences these might have for India in the future.
BRUEGEL
Six reasons why backstopping Russia is an increasingly unattractive option for China
According to the authors, China has too much to lose from aligning with Russia over Ukraine. This article sets out six reasons why China should adopt a constructive stance on Ukraine’s future and global stability.
ROBERT SCHUMAN
Le Partenariat oriental à l'épreuve de la guerre en Ukraine (robert-schuman.eu)
On the eve of the EU's fifth enlargement in 2003, the Neighbourhood Policy was launched to "avoid new dividing lines in Europe and to promote stability and prosperity" and to create, in the now famous phrase, a "ring of friends". According to this brief, the Eastern Partnership, which emerged on 7 May 2009, is now being undermined by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine.
16.3.2022
Just over three weeks since the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks analyse the unprecedented shift in global geopolitics and the positions of various countries; the EU response, including possible and proposed changes in foreign, security or defence policies; the growing humanitarian crisis and activation of the EU’s temporary protection mechanism in the face of the large-scale displacement of civilians; and they assess the implications of the EU’s dependence on Russian gas, the economic and financial sanctions against Russia, and the economic impact of the war, including in relation to agricultural production.
EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Putin Is Creating the Multipolar World He (Thought He) Wanted
The authors of this article focus on the difficulties for some countries, like China, in having to position themselves after 24 February in a world that was already quite divided. It seems impossible to stay completely aloof, let alone simply align with Russia. With their sanctions reverberating throughout the global economy, the risk of the relationship with China and Russia worsening seems to be increasing.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
War pushes us to re-define Europe
The author argues that the Russia-Ukraine war is an opportunity to rebuild the foundation of a new EU and analyses the roles of NATO, US and other players in ending the conflict.
DANSK INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONALE STUDIER/DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
Ukraine is closer than you think
Despite its turbulent domestic politics, Ukraine rarely featured at the top of the EU’s security agenda in the post-Soviet period. This article looks at how the scale of current Russian military intervention changed that, bringing the war to the EU’s doorstep, and challenging a previously lenient approach to Russia which the EU refused to see as a potential aggressor.
CHATHAM HOUSE
Devising the strategy to deter Russia and weaken Putin
The author suggests various measures which could form part of a coherent strategy to deter Russia from further atrocities, prevent aggression beyond Ukraine, withstand its threats globally, and hold it to account.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
No-Fly Zone in Ukraine: War with Russia by Another Name
Some current and former officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, call for Western powers to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine. This article explains what a no-fly zone would entail, where similar zones have been established before and the dangers of that option in Ukraine.
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO
Should Ukraine Have Kept Soviet Nuclear Weapons?
Following the Soviet Union collapse in 1991, the stockpile of Soviet nuclear weapons left in Ukraine comprised what was then the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal. Ukraine later transferred these to Russia, the authors consider whether this was the right choice.
CYPRUS CENTER FOR EUROPEAN AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The current Russo-Ukrainian crisis has brought unprecedented, historic, nodal milestones for the international community, in international relations and global geopolitics. According to this paper, this significantly influences the course of the 21st century political history, by irrevocably altering the international equilibrium and becoming the landmark of a new era in international relations and global politics.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
The EU grants temporary protection for people fleeing war in Ukraine
To respond to the sudden large-scale displacement of people from Ukraine, the 2001 EU Temporary Protection Directive has been activated for the first time. This paper examines the key issues and questions raised, drawing on lessons learned or ‘not to be learned’ from policies adopted by countries such as Turkey and others in South America, that have previously responded to large-scale displacements. The paper argues that the solidarity principle enshrined in the EU Treaties needs to be substantially re-thought and revisited.
TERRA NOVA
My enemy’s doctor is not my enemy
The law of war explicitly prohibit attacks on places of care, personnel or patients in armed conflicts. This article considers the precedents in Grozny (Chechnya) and Aleppo (Syria), which have raised the concerns of the WHO and international observers.
HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE
Same shock, different effects EU member states’ exposure to the economic consequences of Putin’s war
This brief takes a very first look at potential differences in exposure, focusing on direct trade links, potential costs of energy dependence on Russia and vulnerabilities towards rising energy prices more generally. It shows that the EU member states’ economic vulnerability to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is very unevenly distributed.
CIDOB
War in Ukraine and the gas crisis force a rethink of EU foreign policy
The paper argues that EU member states dependence on Russian supplies make gas a key factor in the crisis provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The crisis will force a major rethink of Europe’s gas security over the next decade including diversifying outside sources of gas, increasing gas exchanges within Europe, and ensuring that gas stocks are much higher.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine
In the light of the strong dependence of the EU on Russian gas, the commentary examines the risks caused by tensions over the Ukraine-Russia crisis for the EU gas market stability. The assessment of the European Commission's new plan REPowerEU is also included.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
This article examines the implications for global payment flows of the sanctions on Russia, explaining how SWIFT works. In particular, it notes concern that Beijing sees the Ukraine crisis as its opportunity to gain influence over financial markets.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Why more economic and financial sanctions against Russia are inevitable and energy tops the list
Comprehensive financial sanctions against Russia, going well beyond the SWIFT exclusion often thought of as a “final stage,” were implemented swiftly and arguably more drastically than Moscow expected. They have significantly damaged the Russian public sector balance sheet and local financial markets. This post analyses the implications of further sanctions.
AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Are Gold Rubles Gold or Rubles?
This article reflects on the possibility of the appearance of a new parallel currency to the ruble, due to hyperinflation: gold. With the invasion of Ukraine, sanctions to Russia and firms severing business ties with Russia, its connections to the global economy have been damaged. This happened in 1992 and the author considers it possible it is happening again.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Agricultural Production in Ukraine and Russia: Economic Implications for Europe
Both Ukraine and Russia are among the largest producers of agricultural goods in the world today, especially for grains and sunflowers. As the Russian war against Ukraine endangers this agricultural production, the rest of the world can no longer rely on commodities sourced from these countries. This article provides an overview of the economic relevance and the expected effects of these circumstances on prices and on European production and outlines their implications for the agricultural goals of the European Green Deal.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
Germany and the Ukraine crisis: end of the age of illusions
There seems to be no country in Europe where the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a greater systemic upheaval than in Germany, writes the author. The invasion roused Germany from the illusions that have guided its dealings with Russia since the 1970s – the “Ostpolitik” (eastern) policy.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
This article analyses the new German government’s historic break with long-established foreign and security policy tenets and what it signifies for German foreign policy. Invoking the far-reaching German word of “Zeitenwende” (turning point), Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the unexpected and unprecedented increase in defence spending in his seminal speech at the German Bundestag.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
Mögliche wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen des Ukrainekriegs auf Deutschland
Possible economic impact of the Ukraine war on Germany
The article discusses possible consequences of the war on Ukraine for the German economy. The author goes into detail about existing economic interdependencies between Russia and Germany and how they might be affected by the war and further sanctions.
CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW)
Germany and the trade conflict between Lithuania & China
The Chinese government’s trade boycott of Lithuania risks causing economic losses for Germany, which is particularly exposed to the effects of the Lithuanian-Chinese dispute, and weakening the cohesion of the EU’s common market. This article comments on the likely reaction by Berlin given its huge dependence on the Chinese market and the differences of opinion within the government on what direction its Beijing policy should take.
ELINKEINOELÄMÄN TUTKIMUSLAITOS (RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE FINNISH ECONOMY)
The Significance of Russia for Finnish Companies
This policy brief analyses the importance of Russia on the Finnish economy. The authors scrutinize both the trade relations and the presence of Finnish firms in Russia and that of Russian firms in Finland.
CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES
Why the Ukraine crisis should push the UK and EU into a tighter embrace on security policy
According to this policy brief, one of the costs of Brexit is the weakened ability of both the UK and the EU to shape a strong joint response to Russia’s threats to pan-European security. In the standoff over Ukraine, the need for close cross-Channel cooperation is particularly acute for any effective sanctions package negotiated with the US.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Caution and anticipation: Turkey and the Russo-Ukrainian war
The commentary analyses Turkey’s attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war, which is essentially in line with NATO’s position on the conflict, but also void of any actions or rhetoric which would clearly strike at Russia’s interests. The tangible threat that the war in Ukraine poses to Turkey’s internal stability is also examined.
KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG
Der Russische Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine – Reaktionen auf dem Westbalkan
The Russian War of Aggression against Ukraine – Reactions in the Western Balkans
All the countries of the Western Balkans voted in favour of the resolution in UN Resolution General Assembly on 2 March condemning Russia's actions. This report considers the varying positions in the Western Balkans region, which has complicated historical, political, economic and social relations with Russia, but also with Ukraine.
PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO
Will Taiwan Be the Next Ukraine?
The authors analyse similarities and differences of Ukraine’s and Taiwan’s positions in the world picture.
INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY
How Is India’s Silent Diplomacy Navigating the Russia-Ukraine War?
The author assesses how New Delhi has sought to navigate between expressing veiled concern for the Russian invasion and maintaining an important strategic and security relationship.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The Russian invasion of Ukraine: legal aspects
The legal channels will not stop the advance of the Russian army, but they are important in terms of the message they send to Russia and the whole world. Israel, which has seemed to lean to sitting on the fence, must join the international efforts against Russia, Otherwise it is liable to find itself on the wrong side of history, claims this article.
9.3.2022
Providing their first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, think tanks report on the united response of the Western bloc and the unfolding humanitarian crisis; assess the policy and security implications for the EU and the impact for the Middle East, North Africa, Serbia, and India; and analyse the strategic goals of Moscow, the involvement of Belarus and the impact of economic sanctions.
CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS)
This issue collects first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022.
INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP
War in Europe: responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
This paper considers how Russia’s assault on Ukraine threatens to become the largest European conflict in decades. A vigorous but judicious Western and global response is critical to limit the damage.
UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Some preliminary thoughts on the policy implications of the Russian aggression
Thursday 24 February 2022 is, and will be understood as, a watershed in European and global modern history. This article considers various implications of the full-scale military attack on and aggression against a neighbouring state of almost 45 million inhabitants by the world’s leading nuclear weapon power – and a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS)
Russia's “soft annexation” of Belarus during its invasion of Ukraine
This article examines how Russia has for all intents and purposes also taken control of Belarus militarily, as a side-line to its unprecedented military build-up on the land borders of Ukraine and its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.
INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
The Ukraine crisis: an interim analysis
According to this analysis, it is already clear that with the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has upset the world order that has existed since the Second World War. The Western bloc has already begun to realign and is presenting a unified and forceful stance vis-à-vis Moscow. Israel can no longer avoid taking a clear stand and siding fully with the countries opposing Russia.
BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Oriente Medio y el Norte de África ante la guerra en Ucrania: vasos comunicantes
Middle East and North Africa is, after Europe, the region that will feel the impact of the war in Ukraine most acutely, mainly in terms of energy and grain prices. The article analyses other, deeper, connections such as the diplomatic battle, the negotiation over Iran's nuclear programme and its impact on conflict dynamics across the region.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
The Ukraine War and the Risk of a New Foreign Fighters Wave
The author of this article reports on some concerns following Zelensky's plea for foreigners to join the fight against Russia and his promise to give them arms on their arrival. The article recalls the war in Donbas and the great influx of foreign fighters and the risk that this happens again.
CENTAR ZA EVROPSKE POLITIKE (EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE)
Ukraine and Russia are at war. What does that mean for the future of EU-Serbia relations?
The authors reflect on how the current situation in Ukraine will effect Serbian politics with regard to the EU, considering their close ties to Russia.
ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine: A wake-up call also for the MENA region?
This brief approaches the different reactions of the MENA countries to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, reporting a general caution from these countries to condemn Russia's actions except from Foreign Minister Lapid. The author gives a brief overview of the impact of the war in the MENA region.
FRIENDS OF EUROPE
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: getting the right Western strategy in place
This article states that it is time to move beyond disbelief and develop a coherent Western strategy to face Russia's aggression. It considers whether this will be the opportunity to create more integrated European units with neighbours like France, the Benelux, Poland and Italy, and even with the post-Brexit UK.
INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS (IEEE)
Efectos de la guerra de Ucrania en las Repúblicas Bálticas
Before the Ukrainian war, the threat of Russia was mainly understood as a matter of political or economic dimensions in the three Baltic republics. For the author, from now on, this threat is more related to an essential military dimension. This article highlights the increasing reinforcement of this military dimension in the Baltic republics and Scandinavia, which is done in order to guarantee a solid defence from the allies of the region.
REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO
Ucrania en busca de refugio digital
Government stability and international order are in danger in Ukraine, but also the protection of its people and its national security. The control of the technological infrastructure plays an essential role in this, according to the author. This is why it is important to analyse Ukraine's ability to respond to a possible hostage of its digital infrastructure by Russia, and the optimal scenarios in which Ukraine could count on to protect its data and especially in collaboration with other countries.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
"Russian invasion of Ukraine. Deciphering where India stands"
This article considers New Delhi's position vis-à-vis the war and India’s pro-Russian tilt which is a function of its "time tested" friendship with Moscow as well as of geopolitical necessity. However, it is argued that India has a great scope in resolving the impasse in order to avoid being seen as guilty of complicity.
CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS)
War in Europe. Ukraine fights for the West
Contrary to Kremlin’s expectations, the West is united in its response to the war in Ukraine. The paper argues that this ability to take tough measures towards Moscow is crucial since at stake is nothing less than the very survival of Ukraine and the freedom of the entire Central and Eastern Europe. Possible scenarios for Ukraine and global strategic consequences are also outlined.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
NATO-Russia tensions: Putin orders invasion of Ukraine
This paper examines Moscow’s strategic goals with the invasion of Ukraine and the need to avoid further escalation, taking into account the security agreements between Russia and NATO and the current European security order.
STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK
Moskau bedroht die Balance im hohen Norden
Russia’s attack on Ukraine is not based on legitimate security interests but a rejection of the European security order. According to the authors Russia’s demand for more consideration for its own security interest have achieved the exact opposite. Russia's pressure has the paradoxical effect of bringing Finland and Sweden closer to NATO.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
SWIFT exclusion is fine, sanctioning the Russian Central Bank is better
The article analyses the economic sanctions posed on Russia by the EU.
BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG
This article gives an overview of the implications the economic sanctions on Russia have for the European and Russian economies.
INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Guerre en Ukraine : leçon de grammaire stratégique
This paper examines Russia’s objectives in launching a high-intensity war against Ukraine, which are clearly not limited to Donbass. Nor are they aimed at the acquisition of new territories. In all likelihood, it concludes that this is a large-scale campaign for regime change aimed at installing a power in Kiev that will guarantee it obedience and security.
INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES
Le choc de la réalité : La coalition feu tricolore dans la crise russo-ukrainienne
This analysis considers that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis puts to the test the cohesion of the new traffic light coalition, the authority of Chancellor Scholz and the ambition to adapt the post-Merkel German foreign policy.
CLINGENDAEL - THE NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Phoenix or Icarus? CRU policy brief European strategic autonomy in light of Ukraine
With all eyes on the next Russian move in Ukraine, the notion of European strategic autonomy is experiencing a revival. This paper considers the concept, concluding that broad use of the term ‘EU strategic autonomy’, as is in vogue, risks giving populism and nationalism an unnecessary impulse.
CLINGENDAEL - THE NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Tsar-struck : how Vladimir Putin uses the history of the Russian Empire
On February 24, Vladimir Putin shocked the world by starting a war in Ukraine. In the run-up to the Russian invasion, Putin delivered far-reaching speeches and wrote an article to legitimise his actions – packed with intense rhetoric on imperial as well as Soviet history. This article considers how Putin has consistently instrumentalised history to achieve his policy goals since the day he became president.
THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Real and imagined challenges to strategic stability
Strategic stability has come under pressure from a shifting military and political environment: the number of major strategic actors has increased; missile defence has evolved; and the battlefield has expanded. Nuclear arsenals are being increased and diversified. Yet, the author argues that warnings that we have entered into a new arms race should be viewed with caution and, contrary to what other analysts have suggested, technological advancements are not fundamentally undermining strategic stability.
CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changes everything
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have profound consequences for the stability of the region and for the future of European security, not to mention the immense human suffering. In this article, Carnegie Europe’s scholars give their assessment about how the military attack will fundamentally change the post-Cold War era.
DGAP - GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS
If Russia uses migration as a weapon, Europeans should respond in kind
Around 442,000 people have so far fled Ukraine – not just to the EU, but also to neighbors like Moldova. This is a humanitarian issue, and should not be conflated with “migrant instrumentalization” (MI), whereby a state pushes people across a border to coerce the EU to change position. Yet Russia is likely to employ MI in this way, especially if it moves deep into Western Ukraine. Drawing on an in-depth study, this policy brief shows how the EU can meet this specific threat.
LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
The long shadow of the Soviet Union: demystifying Putin's rhetoric towards Ukraine
This paper provides a contextualised analysis of the Kremlin’s rhetoric regarding Ukraine since 2014. Examining the content and accuracy of Russian complaints about NATO enlargement, the article examines other motivations Putin may have for considering an attack on Ukraine, in particular 'nationalist irredentism'.
OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES)
Ukraine: the first day of the Russian invasion
The author of this analysis offers a broad picture of the different aspects of the just-started war and its consequences. There is also allusion to the information situation (how events are being reported in Ukraine) and the economic consequences.
The West strikes a blow at the Russian economy
This article comments on the West’s sanctions packages against Russia and the impact on the Russian financial system.
CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
The Kremlin playbook 3: keeping the faith
This study aims to expose a new front of Russian malign influence in Europe and Eurasia: the instrumentalization of values, traditions, and religious beliefs to exploit or sow divisions among Western societies.
INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
The February 2022 edition of the IRMO Brief, authored by Zoran Meter, deals with the situation in Belarus after the presidential election in 2020 to present day. The author also analyses how Belarusian support to Russia will facilitate Russian ambitions in Ukraine.
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