IMF Weekend Read,update

 

Dear MARIA,   In today's edition, we highlight: Impact of War on Global Economy  Energy Shocks  Stablecoins in Nigeria  Trade GLOBAL ECONOMY Global Economy Weathers War Shock - For Now The recent ceasefire announcement is welcome, but energy and other supply disruptions will take time to unwind, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva writes in a new blog.   “The global economy appears to be holding up,” she notes, with commodity prices, inflation and expectations, and financial conditions all affected by the war in the Middle East—but not yet in ways that signal a global slowdown. Strong economic momentum in the United States and China has helped offset some of the drag, including a boom in U.S. investment in technologies linked to artificial intelligence.   Beneath this aggregate resilience, however, the impact is uneven. Energy‑importing countries with limited policy space, especially in Africa, are being squeezed by higher fuel prices and supply disruptions. In many economies, higher oil prices are pushing up headline inflation, even as medium‑term inflation expectations remain broadly well anchored—an important sign of confidence in central banks’ commitment to price stability.   “That the global economy is so far weathering the shock is cause for reassurance—but not complacency,” Georgieva writes, noting that the IMF remains on high alert and will provide an updated assessment of this global picture on July 8, in its next World Economic Outlook Update. Read the IMF Blog ENERGY  The Energy Shock is Burdening Budgets A new IMF policy tracker shows governments have introduced nearly 900 measures across about 170 countries since the beginning of the war in the Middle East. Their swift response to yet another energy shock has cushioned the impact on households and businesses, but it has also stretched already tight budgets.   “Energy shocks force policymakers to choose if adjustment happens via prices or is absorbed by budgets—and the early responses so far show a clear preference for containing prices,” note Era Dabla-Norris, Christian Mumssen, Rodrigo Valdes, and Daria Zakharova. If the recent peace efforts lead to a normalization of trade and oil flows, the challenge for many governments will be how to unwind this support.   Safeguarding fiscal sustainability will be critical. In advanced economies, almost half of recorded measures are subsidies to energy producers and distributors, and about a third are cuts to fuel excise taxes. Emerging and developing economies lean more on price caps, fuel-pricing formulas, and other administrative controls, sometimes combined with rationing. Read the IMF Blog STABLECOINS Nigeria's Stablecoin Surge Stablecoins are rapidly reshaping how money moves in and out of Nigeria. For many people and small firms, the appeal of these U.S. dollar–pegged crypto assets is simple: they offer a faster, cheaper way to receive remittances or pay overseas suppliers.   Nigeria saw about $59 billion in crypto-asset inflows between July 2023 and June 2024, underscoring the scale of the shift. “Stablecoins are neither a passing trend nor a complete substitute for traditional finance,” note Axel Schimmelpfennig and Bo Zhao in a new Country Focus article.   Widespread use of stablecoins can resemble a digital form of dollarization, weakening the transmission of monetary policy. Their growing use can also complicate oversight and financial monitoring.   IMF analysis prepared for the Fund’s latest annual economic health-check of Nigeria points to a pragmatic response: strengthen regulatory frameworks and improve domestic payment systems, so that formal channels can compete on speed, cost, and convenience. Read the Country Focus story FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT  Trade Among Rivals “If the trading system is to survive, it must adapt to a world where countries use trade policy to advance geopolitical objectives,” argue the World Bank’s Aaditya Mattoo, the IMF’s Michele Ruta, and the WTO’s Robert Staiger in a new Finance & Development article.   They propose a “geopolitical exemption” that would let strategic rivals adjust tariffs on each other in narrowly defined cases while shielding third countries from collateral damage.   Their research suggests that such an exemption could give governments more room to address national-security concerns without tearing up the core principles of reciprocity and nondiscrimination. This, in turn, could help contain the risk that rising tensions push the global trading system toward deeper fragmentation.   In an accompanying podcast, Ruta explains how trade ties change as countries disengage and why updating the rules may be essential to keep cooperation alive in a more geopolitical world.   Read the story and the June issue of F&D. Listen to the podcast Thank you very much for your interest in the Weekend Read! Be sure to let us know what issues and trends we should have on our radar.  Jacqueline Deslauriers Editor | IMF Weekend Read  jdeslauriers@imf.org Stay connected with the International Monetary Fund:       This email was sent to politikimx@gmail.com on behalf of: International Monetary Fund 1900 Pennsylvania Ave NW · Washington, DC · 20431