F&D Magazine: The Debate over Falling Fertility

 

The Debate over Falling Fertility JUNE 2025  (Credit: Hadley Hooper) Global fertility rates have been falling for decades and are reaching historically low levels. While the human population now exceeds 8 billion and may top 10 billion by 2050, the momentum of growth is dissipating because of declines in its most powerful driver—fertility. Over the next 25 years, East Asia, Europe, and Russia will experience significant population declines.   What this will mean for the future of humanity is rather ambiguous, David E. Bloom, Michael Kuhn, and Klaus Prettner write in F&D. On one hand, it could hinder economic progress as there will be fewer workers, scientists, and innovators. On the other hand, fewer children and smaller populations will mean less need for spending on housing and childcare, freeing resources for other uses such as research and development and adoption of advanced technologies.   Clearly, policymakers face crucial choices in managing the unfolding demographic trends. Responses may include measures to encourage fertility, adjustments to migration policies, expansion of education, and efforts to encourage innovation, the authors say.   “Together with advances in digitalization, automation, and artificial intelligence, the coming declines in population pose a significant challenge but also a potential opportunity for the world’s economies.” Read more Also in our special report on demographics:  (Credit: Hadley Hooper) The Longevity Dividend | Aging populations should be embraced, not feared | Andrew Scott and Peter Piot (Credit: Hadley Hooper) Sustaining Growth in an Aging World | Older populations need not lead to slumping economic growth and mounting fiscal pressures | Bertrand Gruss and Diaa Noureldin Point of View (Credit: Chantal Jahchan) Reclaiming a Policy Role for Economists | Acknowledging missteps, listening well, defending data, and avoiding jargon will help the profession engage | Karen Dynan   Europe’s Future Hinges on Greater Unity | But first the EU must overcome distrust between its member states and in its institutions | Simon Nixon   We Need a New Growth Compact| Innovation and integration can revive growth amid sweeping geopolitical change | Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas Europe: From Adversity to Advantage (Credit: Brian Stauffer) Europe’s Integration Imperative | The case for closer economic union has become more compelling as external challenges multiply | Alfred Kammer   Europe’s Elusive Savings and Investment Union | An integrated capital market must be accompanied by regulatory reforms to attract substantial investment | Ravi Balakrishnan and Mahmood Pradhan   Europe’s Innovators Are Waking Up| The continent’s innovation success stories and renewed sense of purpose defy criticism of overregulation | Alessandro Merli   Making Germany Grow Again| Long-term, future-focused investment can rescue Europe’s largest economy from stagnation | Ulrike Malmendier and Claudia Schaffranka   Plus, government ministers from three of Europe’s fastest-growing economies share their perspectives on how to revive growth:   Europe’s Economic Revival | Poland’s economic transformation can inspire Europe today | Andrzej Domański   Greece’s Remarkable Recovery | Strong reforms have turned it into one of Europe’s fastest-growing economies | Konstantinos Hatzidakis   Spain’s Shift to Success | Our balanced and sustainable growth is overcoming traditional dilemmas | Carlos Cuerpo “The European Union must unite to shape today’s global economy, rather than be shaped by it.”— F&D editor-in-chief Gita Bhatt Read more Also Featured (Credit: Getty Images/Mirrorpix ) A Moving History| Migration has propelled human progress for hundreds of thousands of years | Ian Goldin   Machine Intelligence and Human Judgment | AI could reverse the widening inequality driven by technology, or aggravate it | Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb   Stanley Fischer (1944–2025)| His storied career at the IMF, at central banks, and at universities shaped the study of macroeconomics and the next generation of macroeconomists | James Boughton Our Regular Departments (Credit: iStock/erhui1979) Kevin Fletcher explains why productivity, not competitiveness, is the better path to prosperity for Back to Basics.   When controlled by a select few, tech innovation can be self-serving and undermine the institutions that make it possible, Simon Johnson says in Café Economics.   Andreas Adriano profiles Agustín Carstens, finance minister, head of the BIS, and central banker with a start-up mentality, for People in Economics.   Picture This shows how stalled trade and rising tariffs are testing global economic resilience.   For books, Mouhamadou Sy reviews Our Dollar, Your Problem: An Insider’s View of Seven Turbulent Decades of Global Finance, and the Road Ahead by Kenneth Rogoff.   Volker Wieland reviews Crisis Cycle: Challenges, Evolution, and Future of the Euro by John H. Cochrane, Luis Garicano, and Klaus Masuch.   And Vivek Arora reviews Entropy Economics: The Living Basis of Value and Production by James K. Galbraith and Jing Chen   For Currency Notes, Salsa Mazlan tells how Macao SAR’s unique history has yielded different yet equally elegant versions of the same banknote.   Nick Owen  Managing Editor | Finance & Development   nowen@IMF.org Stay connected with the International Monetary Fund: