(Credit: Pius Utomi Ekpei/IMF Photo)
At current growth rates, per capita income in sub-Saharan Africa would take roughly half a century to double. Our chapter in the IMF’s latest Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa shows that implementing well-designed structural reforms—especially in governance, business regulation, and market openness—could lift output by around 20 percent within a decade.
The point is not reform for reform’s sake. It is to shift the growth model from one led mainly by the state to one driven more by private investment, productivity, and jobs.
Why a growth reset is needed
Despite strong performance in a handful of countries—including Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda—growth across the region has been too weak to deliver meaningful income convergence. Over the past three years, real GDP per capita grew by about 1.4 percent a year, compared with about 3.4 percent in emerging markets and developing economies overall.
Past growth spurts—often fueled by commodity booms or inefficient public investment—faded fast. They did not trigger the sustained private investment needed to keep growth going, with labor productivity nearly flat for three decades.
The public sector-led growth model is now spent. With debt high, borrowing costly, and aid falling, the state can no longer be the main engine of growth. The region needs more private investment, backed by broad, business-friendly reforms.
Where should policymakers focus?
Sub-Saharan Africa lags other developing regions most in three areas: governance, business regulation, and market openness. These gaps are largest in fragile and conflict-affected states and oil exporters. But they are not immutable. Rwanda and Benin, for instance, have cut red tape and used digital tools to make it easier to do business.
Reforming state-owned enterprises, especially in energy and transport, is another key priority. When tariffs stay below cost-recovery levels, cash flow weakens, maintenance is delayed, and investment stalls. The result is a familiar tax on growth: unreliable and expensive services for firms and households. The better reform efforts use four ingredients: map stakeholders, align prices with costs, define social goals clearly, and explain how any savings will be used.
The payoff
Reform payoff could be large. IMF staff analysis suggests that closing just half the gap with frontier emerging markets in key reform areas could raise output by around 20 percent over 5–10 years—through higher investment, faster productivity growth, and greater labor force participation—if macroeconomic stability is maintained.
Governance reforms matter especially because their gains are lasting. A fairer competitive field, stronger tax compliance, and better state capacity can unlock investment and build confidence at the same time.
Country experience backs this up. Following its post-2010–11 reform push, Côte d’Ivoire restored credibility and drew in capital; foreign direct investment rose more than tenfold, to $3.3 billion by 2024. Botswana’s transparent management of diamond revenues, backed by the rule of law and policy stability, helped sustain decades of strong growth. Earlier liberalization in Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania, and Zambia also produced sizable growth dividends.
How to make reforms stick
Choosing and designing reforms is only half the job. Implementing them is usually harder. This is because benefits often arrive slowly, sometimes beyond an electoral cycle, while vested interests resist change. Political feasibility matters as much as technical design.
Five principles help reforms stick:
- Start with the basics. Macroeconomic stability and predictable institutions come first. Quick, visible wins—such as online business registration—can build momentum.
- Build support early. Durable reform needs genuine consultation, cross-party backing, and candid communication on benefits, trade-offs, and timing. Political openings matter, but crises can also create them—as seen in Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zambia. South Africa’s Operation Vulindlela shows how structured engagement can sustain momentum.
- Bundle reforms. Measures often reinforce one another. Pairing reform of state-owned enterprises with pro-competition regulation, for example, can attract private participation rather than entrench monopolies. At the regional level, harmonizing rules under the African Continental Free Trade Area can expand market access.
- Protect the vulnerable. Targeted, temporary cash transfers—based on current registries and delivered digitally—can cushion short-term costs.
- Strengthen the state’s implementation capacity. Better systems for learning, institutional memory, and monitoring are essential. External partners can help by supporting sustained capacity building.
The road ahead
There is no one-size-fits-all playbook. Countries with stronger institutions can move faster with broader reform packages. Others—especially fragile states—may need to focus first on core governance reforms and a few early wins that build trust. Resource-rich economies should put transparency and sound revenue management first, so natural wealth translates into broad-based development.
For policymakers, the choice is increasingly clear: press ahead with well-sequenced, inclusive reforms now—or risk another decade of missed convergence. With debt high, aid declining, and global headwinds worsening, the window for action is narrowing. Done right, today's reform push can turn stabilization into sustained growth, quality jobs, and rising living standards for the region's rapidly growing young population.
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Grace Li and Nikola Spatafora are senior economists, and Constant Lonkeng is a deputy division chief, in the IMF’s African Department.
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Peter Walker
Managing Editor | IMF Country Focus
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