IMF weekend read

 

The latest IMF analysis of global economics, finance, development and policy issues shaping the world //

Dear maria, Welcome to the Weekend Read! In today's edition we explore, among other things, the IMF's new forecasts for global growth, which included markdowns to the world's two largest economies, risks to asset prices from rising interest rates, how a shift in China's growth model could benefit the world, how fiscal rules are being tested by debts and deficits, and quantum computers. World Economic Outlook (Photo: Viewapart/iStock by Getty Images) Weaker Outlook than Expected The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected, according to the IMF's World Economic Outlook Update. Global growth is expected to moderate from 5.9 percent in 2021 to 4.4 percent in 2022—half a percentage point lower for 2022 than projected in the previous Outlook, in October, largely reflecting forecast markdowns in the world's two largest economies, the United States and China. In a new blog, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the rapid spread of the Omicron variant has led to renewed mobility restrictions in many countries and increased labor shortages. Supply disruptions are still weighing on activity and contributing to higher inflation, while record debt and rising inflation constrain the ability of many countries to address renewed disruptions, she added. Global growth is expected to slow to 3.8 percent in 2023. Although this is 0.2 percentage point higher than the previous forecast, the upgrade largely reflects a pickup after current drags on growth dissipate in the second half of 2022. --Breaking out of the pandemic: To address many of the difficulties facing the world economy, it is pivotal to break the hold of the pandemic. This will require a global effort to ensure widespread vaccination, testing, and access to medication, including newly developed anti-viral medications. As of now, only 4 percent of the population of low-income countries are fully vaccinated versus 70 percent in high-income countries.   Watch a a press briefing where Gopinath and the IMF's Petya Koeva Brooks and Malhar Nabar answer questions about inflation and interest rates as well as the outlook for Brazil, India, Germany, Mexico, Nigeria and the United Kingdom, among other economies. Asset Prices (Photo: Chine Nouvelle/SIPA/Newscom) Risks to Asset Prices are Rising As financial vulnerabilities remain elevated in several sectors, monetary authorities should provide clear guidance about the future stance of policy to avoid unnecessary volatility and safeguard financial stability, the IMF's Nassira Abbas and Tobias Adrian write in a new blog. To contain price pressures, many economies have started tightening monetary policy, leading to a sharp increase in nominal interest rates, with long-term bond yields, often an indicator of investor sentiment, recovering to pre-pandemic levels in some regions such as the United States. --More Risks: Investors often look beyond nominal rates and base their decisions on real rates—that is, inflation-adjusted rates—which help them determine the yield on assets. Low real interest rates induce investors to take more risks. Despite somewhat tighter monetary conditions and the recent upward move, longer-term real rates remain deeply negative in many regions, supporting elevated prices for riskier assets. --Asset Selling: Further tightening may still be required to tame inflation, but this puts asset prices at risk. More and more investors could decide to sell risky assets as those would become less attractive. China (Photo: zhaojiankang/iStock by Getty Images) The Future of China's Growth Model China rebounded strongly from the pandemic, but growth is losing momentum while remaining overly dependent on support from investment and exports. Our latest Country Focus by the IMF's Chang Yong Rhee, Helge Berger and Wenjie Chen looks at how China can transition to sustained high-quality growth that’s balanced, inclusive and green. While China’s many challenges have no easy answer, the key message of the IMF’s annual Article IV review of the economy released this week is that rebalancing toward a more consumption-based model will boost growth prospects in the short term and deliver high-quality expansion in the long run. Importantly, it will also help bring the country closer to achieving its climate goal of carbon neutrality before 2060. --Green gains: Successfully rebalancing toward consumption will aid China’s climate aims by shifting activity to relatively untapped services industries and away from carbon-intensive industrial sectors. In fact, rebalancing alone can help cut carbon emissions by about 15 percent over the next three decades, according to IMF staff simulations. F&D (Image: iStock /AISLAN13) Quantum Computers Quantum computers have the potential to accelerate scientific discovery and innovation, revolutionize financial market modeling and simulations, and empower machine learning and artificial intelligence. Yet these powerful computers pose risks, too, including cracking the hitherto impenetrable cryptographic codes that underpin financial stability, as we explain in the most recent issue of Finance & Development. Read the entire article. Check out our December Issue of Finance & Development.  Want to get a print copy delivered to your home or office? Click here to subscribe.   (Photo: Alexandros Michailidis/iStock by Getty Images)   Fiscal Rules How has the pandemic challenged fiscal rules that governments use to strengthen the credibility of public finances? In a new blog, the IMF's W. Raphael Lam and Paulo Medas explain how countries can navigate the challenge, even as record debt and deficits test fiscal policy frameworks anchored by rules. (Photo: IMF)   Call For Papers The IMF is calling for papers covering global economic challenges including inflation and unconventional monetary policies for a conference it is co-hosting in April. The deadline for submissions is Jan. 31.  (Photo: IMF)   Essential Reading: SDGs Check out our eLibrary section on the Sustainable Development Goals, where you can find all the latest IMF research on how countries can reach these critical development benchmarks. Quote of the Week "A higher and sudden increase in real interest rates could lead potentially to a disruptive price revaluation and an even larger selloff in stocks." —The IMF's Nassira Abbas and Tobias Adrian in a blog about interest rates and risks to asset prices. WEEKLY ROUND-UP 01. Georgieva on Inflation In an interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva explained why she believes that the rapid inflation experienced in the United States and other countries can end if the pandemic is brought under control in 2022. Watch the interview. 02. Africa's Growth Outlook Monetary policy tightening by major central banks, uncertainty over new COVID variants, and stretched public finances are weighing on sub-Saharan Africa's economic outlook. IMF African Department Director Abebe Aemro Selassie explained in an interview with CNBC Africa how the latest World Economic Outlook update applies to the region which saw a slight downgrade in its growth forecast in the latest report. 03. BigTech in Financial Services BigTech firms are gradually entering the financial sector and becoming important service providers, particularly in emerging markets. This is potentially creating new systemic risks, write the IMF's Parma Bains, Nobuyasu Sugimoto, and Christopher Wilson in a new Fintech Note, and requires hybrid regulation and supervision, combining a mix of entity- and activity-based approaches. Check out two other Fintech Notes published this week on Blockchain Consensus Mechanisms and Fintech and the Evolution of Commercial Law. 04. Public Investment Management On average, countries lose over one-third of the potential benefits from infrastructure investment due to inefficiencies. This explains why strengthening public investment management has become an increasingly important part of the IMF’s capacity development work. The IMF has conducted 71 Public Investment Management Assessments (PIMAs) so far, and launched a Climate PIMA in December 2021, to support countries in strengthening their public investment management systems to deliver their climate objectives. This week, the IMF conducted a 4-day regional workshop on strengthening public investment management with countries from the Caucasus and Central Asia, as well as Mongolia, and Pakistan. Find out more. 05. IMF Online Courses The IMF’s online curriculum keeps expanding with 52 courses currently open for enrollment, including the Government Finance Statistics course now also available in French and Spanish. Find the right course for you and follow it at your own pace. The courses are available to all, and for free. You can find the full course offering here. MARK YOUR CALENDAR 01. Tackling Gender-Based Violence The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns have led to a rise in gender-based violence in many countries. In a seminar taking place Feb. 3 at 8 a.m. ET, speakers from the IMF, UN Women and the Government of Rwanda will highlight the evidence on and the economic consequences of violence against women in sub-Saharan Africa. Beyond the moral imperative, the speakers will underline the importance of combating violence against women from an economic standpoint and offer policy options, such reinforcing laws against domestic violence, strengthening women’s decision-making power, and finding home-grown solutions and programs to address the problem. Our latest Chart of the Week from the IMF's Jorge Alvarez and Philip Barrett shows how surging energy costs have boosted inflation, especially in Europe, after fossil-fuel prices nearly doubled in the past year. Rising food prices have also helped to boost inflation. Inflation is likely to remain elevated. Price gains this year will average 3.9 percent in advanced economies and 5.9 percent in emerging market and developing economies, before subsiding next year, according to the IMF’s January update to the World Economic Outlook.  Adam Behsudi Editor IMF Weekend Read abehsudi@IMF.org

ΓΙΩΡΓΟΣ ΑΡΒΑΝΙΤΙΔΗΣ,ΚΙΝ.ΑΛ.newsletter

Συνάντηση με μέλη του ΔΣ της ΠΑΣΥΦΩΣ

Ο Γιώργος Αρβανιτίδης βουλευτής Β’ Θεσσαλονίκης και Αρμόδιος Τομεάρχης Ενέργειας και Περιβάλλοντος του Κινήματος Αλλαγής συναντήθηκε με τον πρόεδρο, κ. Φραγκούλη, και αντιπρόεδρο, κ. Μαρκαντώνη, της ΠΑΣΥΦΩΣ.

Άκουσε με μεγάλη προσοχή τα τεράστια ζητήματα που έχουν να αντιμετωπίσουν εξαιτίας του νέου προγράμματος του Υπουργείου Περιβάλλοντος, το οποίο δεν έχει καμιά σχέση με το Ειδικό Πρόγραμμα Ανάπτυξης Φωτοβολταϊκών Συστημάτων κατοικιών του 2009. Είναι φανερό πως καλύπτει μόνο τις υποχρεώσεις του ίδιου του υπουργείου και δεν υπάρχει καμιά ουσιαστική μέριμνα για τη συμμετοχή των ελληνικών νοικοκυριών.



Το Φωτοβολταϊκό στέγης ή οικιακό, αφορά εν δυνάμει, όλα τα ελληνικά νοικοκυριά, ιδιαίτερα τώρα με την ενεργειακή κρίση και την ενεργειακή ακρίβεια που βιώνουμε και τα τιμολόγια της ΔΕΗ να «σκαρφαλώνουνε στα ύψη».

Το Κίνημα Αλλαγής κατανοώντας τη δύσκολη θέση που έχουν βρεθεί ένα μεγάλο μέρος των νοικοκυριών στέκεται δίπλα στην ΠΑΣΥΦΩΣ και τη στηρίζει σε κάθε της ενέργεια.



Eρώτηση και Αίτημα Κατάθεσης Εγγράφων για τον εγκλωβισμό των πολιτών στην Αττική
Ερώτηση και ΑΚΕ κατέθεσε σύσσωμη η ΚΟ του Κινήματος Αλλαγής με θέμα τις αστοχίες στο συντονισμό των κρατικών υπηρεσιών και την έλλειψη ανταπόκρισης από τις “Αττικές Διαδρομές ΑΕ” που οδήγησαν στον εγκλωβισμό πολιτών και το μπλοκάρισμα των μετακινήσεων στο Λεκανοπέδιο Αττικής.

Οι βουλευτές με την ερώτησή τους ζητούν απαντήσεις και την κατάθεση εγγράφων για τα ακόλουθα θέματα :

1. Πότε έγιναν οι συσκέψεις πριν την εκδήλωση της χιονόπτωσης της 24ης Ιανουαρίου, ποιοι κλήθηκαν, τι προτάσεις κατατέθηκαν τόσο από τις υπηρεσίες όσο και από τις “Αττικές Διαδρομές ΑΕ” και ποια τα πρακτικά με τις αποφάσεις από τις συσκέψεις αυτές; Να κατατεθούν τα σχετικά έγγραφα.

2. Πότε δόθηκε η πρώτη εντολή για διακοπή της κυκλοφορίας των βαρέων οχημάτων στην Αττική Οδό και πότε ανταποκρίθηκε η Αττική Οδός και πότε τελικά έγινε αυτό; Να κατατεθούν τα σχετικά έγγραφα.

3. Πότε έγινε έλεγχος της ετοιμότητας λειτουργίας και της επάρκειας των εκχιονιστικών μηχανημάτων της Αττικής Οδού και εάν ναι ποια ήταν η αξιολόγηση του ελέγχου; Να κατατεθούν τα σχετικά έγγραφα.




ΔΙΑΒΑΣΤΕ ΕΔΩ ΟΛΟ ΤΟ ΚΕΙΜΕΝΟ ΤΗΣ ΕΡΩΤΗΣΗΣ

AHEPA:Board Chairman Karacostas Appointed to Serve as Co-chair of Archdiocese's Clergy Laity Congress

 

Friday, January 28, 2022 Board Chairman Karacostas Appointed to Serve as Co-chair of Archdiocese's Clergy Laity Congress The Order of AHEPA congratulates Past Supreme President and Chairman of the Board of Trustees Nicholas A. Karacostas on his appointment to serve as a Co-chair of the Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America's 46th Biennial Clergy Laity Congress by His Eminence Archbishop Elpidophoros of America. The Clergy Laity will convene in New York City, July 3-7, 2022. “We congratulate Brother Karacostas on his appointment to serve as a Co-chair, and we are tremendously proud of him,” Supreme President Jimmy Kokotas said. “We are confident Nick’s contributions will help make the event, which will be held in his home city, a tremendous success. Axios!” “I am grateful to Archbishop Elpidophoros for his trust in me to serve in this important role,” Karacostas said. “I am deeply honored and touched. I look forward to working with His Eminence, fellow Co-chair Chrysanthy Demos, and the Archdiocese staff, to host a successful Clergy Laity Congress.” Brother Karacostas was invested as an Archon of the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle of the Ecumenical Patriarchate in November 2010 and holds the title Archon Nomophylax. He has also served for 12 years on the Parish Council of the St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church of Flushing N.Y. and three terms as President. Read the Greek Orthodox Archdiocese announcement

"δρόμος ΤΗΣ ΑΡΙΣΤΕΡΑΣ"..

Στον Δρόμο που κυκλοφορεί
το Σάββατο 29 Ιανουαρίου..


Η συνενοχή των Aκαταδίωκτων
Το πολιτικό σύστημα πιστό στο δόγμα «μεταρρυθμίσεις-εθνικές παραχωρήσεις-λιτότητα» • Με «συγγνώμη» ο Μητσοτάκης, με «μομφή» ο Τσίπρας και με αμφισημίες ο Ανδρουλάκης, ασελγούν επί του λαού • Από κοινού υπηρετούν την πλουτοκρατία και την κλεπτοκρατία


editorial
Κατ’ εξακολούθηση…

Στη χώρα μας –όλοι το γνωρίζουν– δεν υπάρχει «πολιτική προστασία». Ό,τι υπήρχε από αυτήν μία-δύο δεκαετίες πριν διαλύθηκε από τα νεοφιλελεύθερα δόγματα, την ιδιωτικοποίηση, τη ρεμούλα, τα μνημόνια (όπως ακριβώς γίνεται τώρα και με το ΕΣΥ). Όλες ανεξαίρετα οι κυβερνήσεις υπηρέτησαν τη διάλυση ή την εγκατάλειψη.
Διαβάστε όλο το editorial


ΔΙΕΘΝΗ
ΠορτογαλίαΧρονικό ενόςπροαναγγελθέντος θανάτου

ΟυκρανίαΔιαβουλεύσειςκαι εντάσεις


ΤΟ ΘΕΜΑΛαϊκή δυσαρέσκεια
χωρίς ορατή διέξοδο

ΕΠΙΚΑΙΡΟΤΗΤΑ
Μια αιρετική
«δεξιά» άποψη
του Βαγγέλη Πισσία

ΠΟΛΙΤΙΚΗ
Ενεργειακή κρίση, κλιματική αλλαγή και καπιταλιστική αναδιάρθρωση (Μέρος B')
του Δημήτρη Α. Τραυλού-Τζανετάτου

ΣΥΝΕΝΤΕΥΞΗ
Κώστας Γάκης:
«Ιστορία ενός σκύλου
που τον έλεγαν πιστό"


Δωρεάν Εγγραφή

Κυκλοφόρησε το ημερολόγιο του 2022
1922, Ιστορία που αντηχεί ακόμα
Αγορά

Michelle Obama,update

Hi there, For my husband's second inauguration, 15-year-old Hadiya Pendleton came down to Washington and performed in the festivities with her majorette squad. A week later, this bright and beautiful girl was killed in a tragic shooting on the South Side of Chicago.  I never had the chance to meet Hadiya while she was alive, but after she died, I was able to spend some time with her loved ones. I learned about how she was an honor student, how much she loved music, how she loved going out to get ice cream with her friends. And the more I heard, the more I understood the extraordinary potential inside of her—a potential that was stolen by the epidemic of gun violence.  At Hadiya’s memorial service, her mom, Cleopatra, said something to me that has stayed with me ever since. She said: “I did everything I was supposed to.”  Like me, Hadiya was raised by parents who wanted to give her opportunities they never had. They signed her up for volleyball, cheerleading, and a dance ministry at church. They supported her education, and with their encouragement, she became a star student. From an early age, Hadiya’s parents made sacrifices to introduce her to opportunities throughout Chicago so that she could one day find her place in the world.  I can’t help but hope that, through the Obama Presidential Center, Barack and I can help young people just like Hadiya find their own place in the world, and build lives worthy of their dreams.    That’s why we are proud to honor Hadiya’s memory through the Hadiya Pendleton Winter Garden at the Obama Presidential Center. When it’s finished, the space will be bright and welcoming, full of light and warmth, and open for anyone to enjoy. It will be a place to gather, connect, and hopefully to better understand the boundless potential that lies within each of us.   We are still a few years from opening the Center, but we are just so excited for what it will mean to the community and to visitors from around the world.  Watch this video to learn more about why this moment is meaningful for me, Hadiya’s family, and for the South Side. Thank you to all of you who have been on this journey with us, and to young people like Hadiya, who will help make the Center everything we know it can be. We can’t wait for you to see the Winter Garden, and the entire Center, when we open.  –Michelle

French Presidency of the Council of the EU..Informal Meeting of Ministers for Industry and for the Internal Market

 

29/01/2022 03:00 | Article Informal Meeting of Ministers for Industry and for the Internal Market On 31 January and 1 February 2022, the French Presidency of the Council of the European Union will bring together the EU’s 27 Industry and Internal Market Ministers in Lens, France, to discuss how Europe can strengthen its strategic autonomy by identifying and reducing the vulnerabilities that affect the region. The meeting will focus in particular on securing the supply of raw materials for European industry.

On 31 January and 1 February 2022, the French Presidency of the Council of the European Union will bring together the EU’s 27 Industry and Internal Market Ministers in Lens, France, to discuss how Europe can strengthen its strategic autonomy by identifying and reducing the vulnerabilities that affect the region. The meeting will focus in particular on securing the supply of raw materials for European industry.


In the short term, supply problems impact production conditions, schedules and costs, while also putting a drag on Europe’s competitiveness and putting at stake businesses and jobs. In the long term, they pose a threat to our ability to green and digitalise our economy, respond to crises and develop sectors key to the future, including renewable energy, electric mobility, healthcare, and cloud and 5G infrastructure.

For example, today Europe relies heavily on Asia for active pharmaceutical ingredients, importing 80% of such products, and optical fibre cables (China produces 25% of the world’s supply), among others. Raw materials, however, represent our most critical vulnerability: China currently ensures 60% of the global supply of rare-earth elements and meets 98% of Europe’s demand for these materials, which are essential components used in producing electronics and renewable energy.

In its May 2021 Industrial Strategy update, the European Commission identified a list of 137 products that put Europe in a vulnerable position. They mainly concern sectors such as healthcare, defence and digital technology. The European Commission should present the results of its analysis of the EU’s strategic dependencies with the publication of its Annual Single Market Report in the first quarter of 2022.
The EU has already taken tangible steps to strengthen its autonomy in strategic sectors by:
Launching transformative industrial projects at EU level: In 2019, Member States began undertaking Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEIs) in areas like electric vehicle batteries and microelectronics, and are working on new IPCEIs on hydrogen, cloud computing, electronics and connectivity, and healthcare.
Improving our crisis-response capabilities: The EU created the European Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) to foster research and innovation for critical medical products.
Rolling out new funding programmes: The €750bn NextGenEU recovery plan provides support to a number of critical industrial ecosystems. For one, it plays a central role in the France Relance recovery plan, which provides funding for decarbonising and digitising industry, while propping up our most critical sectors.
Expanding European industry in a fair competitive environment: Trade defence instruments (TDIs) shield Member States from unfair trade practices used by non-EU countries when exporting key inputs like steel. The EU established in October 2020 of a framework for the screening of foreign direct investments (FDIs) which has improved the Union’s ability to monitor investments made by non-EU countries. Lastly, the May 2021 proposal for a regulation on foreign subsidies distorting the internal market seeks to remedy the distortions caused by subsidies granted by non-EU governments to their firms.

Maroš Šefčovič, Vice-President for Inter-institutional Relations and Foresight at the European Commission, and Thierry Breton, Commissioner for the Internal Market, will present the Commission’s work on strengthening the Union’s strategic autonomy, a goal which is at the heart of the May 2021 EU Industrial Strategy update.

EU Ministers and Commissioners will meet for a series of events, including:
A plenary discussion on strengthening Europe’s strategic autonomy and which will allow us to:
agree on a clear course of action for reducing our vulnerabilities and take stock of the EU’s efforts to reduce the region’s dependencies, under way since March 2020 aimed at decreasing ;
consider alternative steps that can be taken to reduce these dependencies, such as the upcoming EU Chips Act, which seeks to increase our semiconductor production capacity;
address the issue of securing and sustaining the EU’s supply of raw materials;


A working lunch with Philippe Varin, former Chair of France Industrie, who will provide an overview of the issue of raw material access and discuss what the EU can do to secure its supply, building on the report submitted to the French government on 10 January 2022;


Three breakout sessions which will further explore:
what action can be taken to secure the supply of non-EU raw materials while remaining in compliance with labour and environmental standards;
what benefits can be derived from the circular economy, innovation and less intensive consumption patterns in order to reduce our reliance on raw materials;
how the Union can increase its domestic production of raw materials and what requirements must be met on the labour and environmental front.


Find out more

Video of the 13 January 2022 ministerial conference in Paris, ”Stronger industry for a more independent Europe”

Video on strategic dependencies