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21 April 2026   AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT Short-term outlook newsletter

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Highlights – April 2026

The EU Short-term outlook is updated for 2026 (meat and dairy sectors) and for the market year 2026/2027 (cereals and oilseeds sectors). The update assumes a return to stability, albeit with a weaker economic outlook as a consequence of the ongoing geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is exacerbating challenges to the agri-food system, creating a highly uncertain environment and significant downward risks. The impact on energy markets, transport costs and inflation have driven up oil, gas and fertiliser prices, which can significantly raise input costs for the agricultural sector, subject to the extent and persistence of these disruptions. The Commission is closely monitoring the situation and its impact on farmers and the agrifood market, notably when it comes to input costs and the functioning of supply chains. Arable Crops and vegetable oils 2026/27 EU cereal production is projected at 278.1 million t, a reduction of 3.2% over the 2025/26 production volume but still 1.5% above the 5-year average. This reduction is mainly expected to come from yields, which are projected to be close to average values, assuming average weather for the rest of the season, and therefore below the very high values of the 2025/26 season. EU maize production is projected to increase in 2026/27 (+ 5.3% year-on-year), although increased fertiliser prices at the time of sowing could result in lower areas sown, while wheat production is expected to decline by 6.2% from an exceptionally high value recorded in 2025/26. Despite lower production, net exports of EU cereals in 2026/27 are projected to increase to 19 million t, up 3.2 million t from estimated 2025/26 level. This is thanks to a significant increase in beginning stocks (43 million t in 2026/27 vs. 31.5 million t in 2025/26), stable imports and increase in exports of wheat. EU oilseed production in 2026/27 is projected to be at 32.3 million t, corresponding to a 3.3% increase over 2025/26 and 4.6% above 5-year average. Production increase is mainly due to more cultivated area and better yields of sunflower, resulting in 14.5% increase in sunflower production. Vegetable oil production is also projected to increase to 16.7 million t (+ 4.5% year-on-year), resulting in record low vegetable oil imports of 5.9 million t (- 25% below 5-year average). Milk & Dairy products EU milk supply in 2025 increased at an unexpectedly high rate, due to a favourable combination of multiple factors: good margins for dairy farmers supported by high raw milk prices, favourable weather and grassland conditions, and exceptional quality and availability of feed, delayed culling and a rebound from delayed calving after animal disease outbreaks in some MS (DE, FR, NL, BE). While raw milk prices have been correcting downwards since October 2025, the recent stabilisation or even rise of dairy commodity prices suggests that raw milk prices might also stabilise in the coming months, with some time lag. EU milk production could still slightly increase in 2026 (+ 0.2%) mainly driven by a resilient EU demand. After a strong increase in the first quarter, a year-on-year decrease is expected in the second half of the year. Cheese and whey are forecast to further increase their share in dairy processing, as the industry further shifts toward higher value-added products. Strong global demand for cheese and whey derivatives also allows for an increase in EU exports of these products. Butter and skimmed milk powder (SMP) production, after an exceptional increase in 2025, is forecast to remain stable in 2026. The improved competitiveness of EU SMP production can allow for a similar (relatively high) level of exports in 2026 as in the previous year. Both EU production and exports of whole milk powder are expected to further decline in 2026, after a significant drop in the previous year amid lacking price competitiveness and decreasing demand in key markets. While decreasing production and consumption trends for drinking milk pull down 2026 prospects for fresh dairy products, yogurt and cream production could increase in 2026, supported by strong demand for these products. Meat products EU per capita meat consumption is expected to remain stable in 2026 with robust demand, despite high prices, in almost all meat markets. Meat production is expected to decline in 2026 compared to 2025 for beef (-2.6%), pigmeat (-1%) and sheep and goat (-5%), while poultry production is forecasted to increase (1.4%). High prices and a declining cattle and sheep herd are expected to result in more EU overall meat imports and a decline in overall EU meat and live animal exports in 2026. However, beef, poultry and pigmeat could still sustain their positive trade balance. Want to find out more about the latest figures? Please visit the Short-term outlook webpage to access the data files.

Dashboard

Data tables and visuals Balance sheets of EU agricultural markets (EU) EU estimated agricultural balance sheets (Member- States)

Further readings

Next Short-term Outlook report is due to be published in Summer 2026. You will be informed about further publications via this newsletter: Analytical briefs State of Food Security in the EU Medium-term Outlook reports

This newsletter is published by the European Commission's Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural development. Visit our websites: Agriculture and Rural Development

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Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development