The RundownNews and analysis from AEI's Foreign and Defense Policy team. |
Scholar Insight |
The House Foreign Affairs Committee recently passed the Chip Security Act, a bipartisan bill designed to curb AI chip smuggling to restricted countries. |
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“The Chip Security Act is an effort to tackle a major problem—smuggling of the chips China needs to fuel its AI ambitions—by using technology to verify that chips aren’t diverted to the wrong region. Today, China’s the largest smuggler of American AI chips, and the US government has struggled to crack down on this illegal trade using traditional enforcement measures.” |
How might China adapt to or circumvent the bill’s safeguards? What measures could strengthen the act’s enforcement and monitoring capabilities?
Follow us on X @AEIfdp to keep up with our latest work. |
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To put this defense budget request in perspective, it would be the highest level of funding for defense in US history, surpassing even the peak funding during World War II. That peak was just under $1.2T in today’s dollars. |
US Foreign Policy |
In the News |
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The US rescued a missing Air Force officer whose fighter jet was shot down over Iran. |
Blog Post Danielle Pletka | What the Hell Is Going On? An alliance is like a marriage—each partner brings something to the relationship, recognizing that they are stronger together. Danielle Pletka argues that within NATO, however, the United States is the only partner demonstrating true commitment. About 85,000 US troops are stationed across European NATO countries, primarily in Germany, Italy, the UK, and Spain. They protect allies while using forward positions to project power in shared interests. Yet as the US confronts the terroristic ambitions of the Islamic Republic of Iran, NATO countries are still refusing American requests for overflight or basing access. These are our allies, nations where Iran has conducted attacks. Still, Italy denied landing rights at Sigonella, and France reportedly refused overflight rights to resupply Israel. It is becoming harder to defend NATO’s value. |
Op-Ed Marc A. Thiessen | The Washington Post In a Wednesday address, Donald Trump warned Iran’s leaders that failing to reach a deal within weeks would bring severe consequences. Marc A. Thiessen argues that Trump should forgo negotiations and impose peace terms in five steps. First, complete military objectives, including securing Iran’s fissile material to prevent a nuclear restart. Second, eliminate remaining Iranian leaders who were previously spared. Third, declare victory unilaterally rather than accept a ceasefire. Fourth, inform the regime that US demands are now in effect and will be enforced, if necessary, with the US and Israel retaining the right to strike at will. Finally, bar Iran from attacking protesters and set conditions for regime collapse, which is essential to the long-term success of Operation Epic Fury. |
Op-Ed Daniel J. Samet | The Washington Post The 2028 Democratic presidential primaries are still two years away, but that hasn’t stopped potential candidates from criticizing Israel, an ally now fighting alongside the United States against Iran. Daniel J. Samet argues that to be pro-Israel is to be out of step with the modern Democratic Party. Consider Gavin Newsom, a likely contender, who referred to Israel as “sort of an apartheid state,” later walking back the comment while opposing Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership. Yet it’s difficult to separate the opposition to democratically elected Netanyahu from the opposition to Israel itself. Meanwhile, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez accused Israel of “genocide in Gaza.” Polls show Democratic sympathy shifting sharply toward Palestinians, underscoring how significantly party attitudes toward Israel have changed in recent years. |
Defense |
In the News |
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Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth asked Army Chief of Staff General Randy George to step down and take immediate retirement. |
Op-Ed Elaine McCusker and John G. Ferrari | The National Interest There is a growing consensus in Washington that the United States must increase defense spending; in today’s world, global power demands it. Yet Elaine McCusker and John G. Ferrari argue that the math and politics behind the latest proposal may not add up. There is no clear path to securing the 60 Senate votes required for a $1.5 trillion defense budget, leaving reconciliation—a process allowing passage by simple majority—as the likely route. However, reconciliation can generate a short-term funding surge without establishing a stable, lasting baseline. Reaching $1.5 trillion or more would require Congress to set a $1.1 trillion topline by 2027, add $450 billion in flexible funds, and act quickly before legislative priorities shift. |
Op-Ed John G. Ferrari | RealClearDefense Last month, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, striking Iranian military and nuclear sites and triggering the largest Middle Eastern war in decades. John G. Ferrari emphasizes that these are not theoretical maneuvers—real forces are engaged, and modern combat burns munitions and interceptors faster than production can replace them. The Middle East remains the epicenter of the US strategic map, while fighting continues in Ukraine, prompting Europe to expand armies, modernize weaponry, and increase defense budgets. Meanwhile, the US reinforces its presence in Latin America to counter China and Russia. Sustaining forces now matters as much as battlefield tactics: Logistics and supply chains are central to whether strategy can succeed in an increasingly strained, multi-theater world. |
Op-Ed William C. Greenwalt | Breaking Defense Defense acquisition reform stands out as a promising effort within the Trump administration, with Secretary Hegseth emphasizing speed, innovation, and integration. William C. Greenwalt warns these reforms will fail unless the Pentagon addresses deeper dysfunctions in its budget system. Civilian agencies already have the flexibility to move quickly, and extending similar authorities to the Department of Defense is essential to keep pace with Silicon Valley and counter China. For decades, commercial innovation has outpaced defense development, exposing the limits of a rigid acquisition process. The current system remains a linear peacetime model that can take up to 25 years to deliver initial operational capability, not including the time spent becoming a program of record through requirements, budgeting, and contracting. Aligning budget processes with modern innovation timelines is critical for meaningful reform. |
Op-Ed Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion The war in the Persian Gulf is underscoring a critical shift in global conflict as missiles become central to modern warfare. Hal Brands emphasizes that the defining trend is not just regional escalation but the growing role of precision strike systems worldwide. The United States and Israel have used advanced missiles to dismantle Iranian defenses and leadership, while Iran has responded with drones and strikes on cities, bases, and infrastructure. Similar patterns are evident in conflicts from India and Pakistan to Russia and Ukraine. As missile technology becomes more accurate and accessible, even weaker states can strike distant targets. The present conflict brings a warning: We’re just starting to wrestle with the dangerous consequences of our new missile age. |
Asia |
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French President Emmanuel Macron and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung agreed to work together to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. |
Blog Post Derek Scissors | AEIdeas Actions by others, including China, have so far reinforced the dollar’s global dominance, while domestic US trends present a more serious long-term risk. Derek Scissors explains that despite having the world’s second-largest economy, China lacks the financial openness and institutional credibility to challenge the dollar, and global reserve data show minimal appetite for the renminbi. The real danger comes from within: Growing inequality, mounting fiscal pressures, and political instability could undermine confidence in US governance. If these trends prompt populist policies that weaken economic performance, the dollar’s strength could gradually erode—driven less by foreign rivals than by America’s own economic and political choices. |
Op-Ed Ryan Fedasiuk | War on the Rocks In late 2024, Chinese models accounted for 1 percent of global AI workloads; by the end of 2025, that share had surged to 30 percent. Ryan Fedasiuk argues the US must act decisively to safeguard national security. Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Moonshot now anchor a growing open-source ecosystem, posing risks of supply chain manipulation, data exfiltration, malicious use, and economic disruption. Congress has taken initial steps with the No DeepSeek on Government Devices Act, which would bar federal employees from using Chinese AI on government hardware. Moving forward, policymakers should establish baseline security standards for AI, mandate supply chain transparency, and develop safeguards. The United States must compete where possible, regulate when necessary, and act quickly to preserve meaningful choice in AI ecosystems. |
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