IMF:Soaring Metal Prices May Delay Energy Transition

 

Clean energy needs may cause years of high prices for copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium under a net-zero emissions scenario.

View as a webpage Dear maria, We just published a new blog—please find the full text below. Translations coming soon. Soaring Metal Prices May Delay Energy Transition (Photo: Petmal/iStock by Getty Images) By Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori, Martin Stuermer and Nico Valckx Clean energy needs may cause years of high prices for copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium under a net-zero emissions scenario The world’s historic pivot toward curbing carbon emissions is likely to spur unprecedented demand for some of the most crucial metals used to generate and store renewable energy in a net-zero emissions by 2050 scenario. A resulting surge in prices for materials such as cobalt and nickel would bring boom times to some economies that are the biggest exporters—but soaring costs could last through the end of this decade and could derail or delay the energy transition itself. Prices for industrial metals, an important foundation for the global economy, have already seen a major post-pandemic rally as economies re-opened, as we recently wrote. Our latest research, included in the October World Economic Outlook and a new IMF staff paper, details the likely effects of the energy transition for metals markets and the economic impact for producers and importers. For example, lithium, used in batteries for electric vehicles, could rise from its 2020 level around $6,000 a metric ton to about $15,000 late this decade—and stay elevated through most of the 2030s. Cobalt and nickel prices would also see similar surges in coming years. Net-zero scenario We look specifically at the goal of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius, which requires a transformation of the energy system that could substantially raise metals demand as low-emission technologies—including renewable energy, electric vehicles, hydrogen, and carbon capture—require more metals than fossil-fuel counterparts. Our focus is on four important metals among the variety being used for the transition. They are copper and nickel, major established metals which have traded on exchanges for decades, and minor-but-rising lithium and cobalt, which have traded on exchanges only recently but are gaining popularity because they are important for the energy transition. The fast pace of change needed to meet climate goals, such as the International Energy Agency’s Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap, implies soaring metals demand in the next decade. Under the IEA’s ambitious scenario, lithium and cobalt consumption jumps more than sixfold to satisfy needs for batteries and other clean energy uses. Copper use would double and nickel’s would quadruple, though this includes meeting needs unrelated to clean energy. Metal prices While metals demand could soar, supply typically reacts slowly to pricing signals, partly depending on production. Copper, nickel, and cobalt come from mines, which require intensive investment and take on average more than a decade from discovery to production according to the IEA. In contrast, lithium often is extracted from mineral springs and brine via salty water pumped from below ground. That shortens lead times for new production to average roughly five years. Supply trends also are influenced by extraction technology innovation, market concentration, and environmental regulations. The combination of soaring demand and slower supply changes can spur prices to climb. In fact, if mining had to satisfy consumption under the IEA’s net-zero scenario, our recent IMF analysis shows prices could reach historical peaks for an unprecedented length of time—and those higher costs could even delay the energy transition itself. Specifically, cobalt, lithium, and nickel prices would rise several hundred percent from 2020 levels and peak around 2030. However, copper is less of a bottleneck as its demand increases are not as steep. We estimate prices would peak as in 2011, though be elevated for longer. The demand surge under a net-zero scenario is frontloaded because renewable energy components such as wind turbines or batteries need metals upfront. On the supply side, however, production is slow to react due to the long lead times for opening mines, and only eventually eases market tightness after 2030. Macro-relevancy Under a net-zero emissions scenario, booming demand for the four energy transition metals alone would boost their production value sixfold to $12.9 trillion over two decades. This could rival the roughly estimated value of oil production in a net-zero scenario over that period. The four metals could affect the economy via inflation, trade and output, and provide significant windfalls to commodity producers. The concentrated supply of metals implies some top producers may benefit. Usually, countries with the largest output have the greatest reserves, and likely would be major prospective producers. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, for example, accounts for about 70 percent of global cobalt output and half of reserves. Other standouts include Australia, for its lithium, cobalt, and nickel; Chile, for copper and lithium; along with Peru, Russia, Indonesia and South Africa. A long-lasting metals boom could also bring substantial economic gains, especially for large exporters. In fact, we estimate that a persistent 10 percent rise in the IMF metal price index adds an extra two-thirds of a percentage point to the pace of economic growth experienced by metals exporting countries relative to importing ones. Exporters also would see a similar magnitude of improvement for government fiscal balances from royalties or tax revenues. Policy implications The high uncertainty surrounding demand scenarios is an important caveat. Technological change is hard to predict, and the speed and direction of the energy transition depends on the evolution of policy decisions. Such ambiguity is detrimental because it may hinder mining investment and raise the odds that high metal prices derail or delay the energy transition. A credible, globally coordinated climate policy; high environmental, social, labor, and governance standards; and reduced trade barriers and export restrictions would allow markets to operate efficiently. This would direct investment to sufficiently expand metal supply, avoiding unnecessarily cost increases for low-carbon technologies and aiding the clean energy transition. Finally, an international body with a mandate covering metals—analogous to the IEA for energy or the UN Food and Agriculture Organization—could play a key role in data dissemination and analysis, setting industry standards, and fostering global cooperation. ***** Glenn Gottselig Managing Editor IMF Blog ggottselig@IMF.org

Επαγγελματίες: Ξεμπλοκάρει η συνταξιοδότηση - Παραγραφή οφειλών 10ετίας

07 Νοεμβρίου 2021

Χιλιάδες ελεύθεροι επαγγελματίες και απασχολούμενοι, λόγω των αυξημένων χρεών προς τον ΕΦΚΑ, δεν μπορούσαν να συνταξιοδοτηθούν. Η απόφαση, όμως της Ολομέλειας του Συμβουλίου της Επικρατείας, που θεσπίζει 10ετή παραγραφή των οφειλών τους αλλάζει τα δεδομένα. Δεκάδες χιλιάδες επαγγελματίες (κυρίως ασφαλισμένοι του πρώην ΟΑΕΕ) θα δουν τα χρέη τους προς το Ενιαίο Ταμείο να ελαφρύνουν έως και 50%, βάσει της απόφασης του ΣτΕ που αφορά μη βεβαιωμένες οφειλές.

Αυτό σημαίνει πρακτικά ότι οι ελεύθεροι επαγγελματίες και αυτοαπασχολούμενοι έχουν την ευκαιρία συνταξιοδότησης, χάρη στην ελάφρυνση των οφειλών τους προς τον ΕΦΚΑ, αρκεί, βεβαίως να τηρούνται ορισμένες προϋποθέσεις. Πέραν, βεβαίως της επάρκειας του πληρωμένου χρόνου ασφάλισης και των ηλικιακών κριτηρίων, η σημαντικότερη προϋπόθεση είναι η εξής: το συνολικό χρέος της δεκαετίας, όπου όπως αναφέρθηκε δεν περιλαμβάνει βεβαιωμένες οφειλές και συνθέτεται από ένα μείγμα πρόσθετων τελών, επιβαρύνσεων, οφειλών από αναγνώριση πλασματικών ετών κτλ., να μην ξεπερνά τις 20.000 ευρώ για τους επιχειρηματίες και τις 6.000 για τους αγρότες.

αναγνώσατε πατώντας εδώ:

https://www.sofokleousin.gr/epaggelmaties-ksemplokarei-i-syntaksiodotisi-diagrafi-ofeilon-sti

Απόφαση ΣτΕ για παραγραφή: Τι σημαίνει για ασφαλισμένους και Ταμεία

 Του Δημήτρη Κατσαγάνη

"Ανάσα” σε οφειλέτες αλλά και στα ταμεία θα μπορούσε να δώσει σε μερίδα οφειλετών η απόφαση του Συμβουλίου της Επικρατείας, η οποία δημοσιεύτηκε την περασμένη Παρασκευή και σύμφωνα με αυτή είναι αντισυνταγματική η παραγραφή των ασφαλιστικών οφειλών μετά την παρέλευση της 20ετίας (σύμφωνα με όσα προβλέπει ο ασφαλιστικός νόμος Κατρούγκαλου του 2016). Ωστόσο, το εύρος των ωφελούμενων μίας τέτοιας απόφασης μένει να φανεί μετά από τη διευκρίνιση σειράς επίμαχων σημείων, η οποία μένει να γίνει  από τα δικαστήρια αλλά και το Υπουργείο Εργασίας, εφόσον αποφασίσει να αναλάβει νομοθετική πρωτοβουλία κατ΄εφαρμογή της απόφασης του ΣτΕ.....

αναγνώσατε πατώντας εδώ:

https://www.capital.gr/oikonomia/3594196/apofasi-ste-gia-paragrafi-ti-simainei-gia-asfalismenous-kai-tameia

ΠΕΡΙΦΕΡΕΙΑ ΑΤΤΙΚΗΣ:newsletter Νοεμβρίου

 

November 2021 ATTICA PRESENTS

2023 ELEUSIS EUROPEAN CAPITAL OF CULTURE ΕΛΕVΣIΣ: arrival of a notable someone — person, thing or event One of the five most important sacred cities of antiquity, the city of the Eleusinian Mysteries and birthplace of Aeschylus, Elefsina is a natural port in a strategic location, just 21 km west of Athens, in the Thriassian Plain, the northwestern edge of the Saronic Gulf. Transformed from the 19th century onwards into the productive engine of Greece and one of its largest industrial centers, now as a European Capital of Culture for 2023 seeks to unveil the invisible side of this mysterious place, by marking a new era for the city and its transition to a new model of development, focusing on its dynamic cultural assets. https://2023eleusis.eu/?lang=en   Holidays in Athens and Attica; experience shopping at its best! Shopping in Athens is a must – do. The major shopping areas of Athens are gathered inside a triangle formed by Syntagma, Monastiraki and Omonia Squares. Monastiraki is the place to visit for hand-made leather bags and sandals. For antiques, head for Abyssinia Square in Monastiraki. You’ll find cheaper vintage bric-a-brac on Sundays, when the flea market takes over the surrounding area. Plaka is your chosen area for Greek folk art, handicrafts and traditional products. Paintings by local artists, fine jewelry, musical instruments, and handmade clothing can be also found.(...)   More A feast invitation… to all foodies around the world! Gastronomy is “the art of preparing and serving fine food” and Attica definitely masters this art! The last 15 years have seen a spectacular evolution in Greek gastronomy: Greek chefs creatively utilise the excellent products and raw materials of Attica, with respect to the region’s gastronomic tradition, and the audience is responsive! It is an undeniable fact: Attica dynamically claims a position on the international gastronomic map!  (...)   More The best places for jogging and running in Attica Many people’s favourite pastime, a feeling of freedom, health and contact with nature or the city: in Attica jogging and running become a true pleasure, whether in the lush green parks and mountainous routes a few minutes away from Athens city centre, or along the stunning coastline and the unique islands of Attica, by the sea. Let’s run! (...) More INTERVIEWS Nikos Polias: “The atmosphere and finishing line at the Panathenaic Stadium offer a unique life experience”. More Kleomenis Zournatzis: “The food variety of Attica is my favourite flavour!” More Sophie Gritsis: “The morphology of Attica’s mountains offers a broad range of activities to all visitors” More

 

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