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Borrowing by the region’s governments, companies, consumers, and financial firms is well above levels prior to the global financial crisis, as we recently noted. In particular, industries that rapidly increased leverage while interest rates were low are now a key concern, especially in Asia. While we expect Asia’s growth to hold up, contributing two-thirds of global growth this year, central banks may keep rates higher for longer to tame inflation, and financial conditions may tighten further.
Highly leveraged companies face greater risk of default as monetary policies and financial conditions remain tight. Even with resilient economic growth, interest payments may exceed earnings as borrowing costs rise, reducing firms’ ability to service their debts.
As the Chart of the Week shows, corporate debt in Asia is concentrated in firms with low interest coverage ratios. When this ratio, a measure of how much corporate earnings can cover debt interest payments, is below or close to 1, a firm may become unable to service its debts.
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