APEC Bulletin 12 November 2023
Overcoming Challenges in APEC's Post-Pandemic Recovery
By Rhea Crisologo Hernando, Glacer Nino A. Vasquez and Carlos Kuriyama
Uneven growth and downside risks
The APEC region’s GDP growth improved to 3.3 percent in the first half of 2023 from 2.9 percent a year ago. The rebound in tourism and domestic consumption is driving economic activity in the APEC region. However, growth is uneven across the region, with some expanding above the APEC average while the majority are either growing below average or contracting.
APEC walks a tightrope amid downside risks. While the region is expected to grow by 3.3 percent for the whole year of 2023, the pandemic legacy, stubborn inflation, higher debt levels, climate change, geopolitical tensions, trade protectionism and geoeconomic fragmentation are casting shadows over APEC’s prospects. Upside opportunities for growth could come from sustained strength in tourism and consumption activity as well as continued targeted fiscal support. From 2024 until the medium term, growth in APEC is expected to stabilize to a range of 2.8 - 2.9 percent, albeit slower than the rest of the world. Uncertainty in the economic landscape is complicating efforts towards a firmer post-pandemic recovery.
Inflation: A thorn in the side
An uptick in inflation was observed in August-September 2023 at 3.4 percent, particularly due to higher prices of energy, sugar and rice. Supply side factors, including oil production cuts by OPEC+ members and export restrictions, further exacerbated by weather conditions, have led to spikes in commodity prices.