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 The U.S. Trade Mission to Colombia featured representatives from 23 U.S. agribusinesses, cooperators, trade associations, and three State Departments of Agriculture. Enhancing U.S. Agricultural Exports to Colombia I recently had the pleasure of leading a trade mission to Bogotá, Colombia, with 23 U.S. agribusinesses and organizations. Colombia has become a key market for U.S. agricultural products, particularly since the U.S.- Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement took effect in 2012. As Colombia’s middle class grows and consumer demand rises, U.S. farmers have a unique opportunity to meet that demand with high-quality products. In 2023, U.S. agricultural exports to Colombia reached a record $3.7 billion. Colombia ranks as the seventh-largest market for U.S. agricultural exports, while the United States is the top export market for Colombia’s agricultural products. Colombia’s gross domestic product is expected to continue growing and remain slightly higher than the regional average, setting the table for continued interest in U.S. products. I was encouraged by the eagerness of Colombian buyers to strengthen ties, especially in areas like corn, soybeans, meat, and dairy products.
Aero-Cos International promotes its line of snacks to a potential Colombian customer during business-to-business meetings in Bogotá. U.S. agribusinesses conducted 549 meetings with 52 importers from Colombia and Venezuela, resulting in projected 12-month sales of $8.15 million. My interactions with officials from the Mississippi, Wisconsin, and Texas Departments of Agriculture underscored the crucial role state-level partnerships play in promoting U.S. exports. These stakeholders were instrumental in connecting U.S. agribusinesses with Colombian buyers, opening doors for future trade deals. By working together, we are ensuring that American producers remain competitive and continue to succeed in this vibrant, evolving market Addressing Global Challenges and Promoting Diversity in Agriculture Shortly after my return from Colombia, I had the honor of speaking at the Kansas Governor’s Summit on Agricultural Growth. Kansas is a cornerstone of American agriculture, and this event provided an invaluable platform to discuss how trade can further strengthen both the Kansas agricultural sector and the nation. My remarks focused on two key areas: diversifying U.S. agricultural exports and expanding market opportunities for specialty crops and underrepresented producers. One highlight of the summit was the focus on USDA’s Regional Agricultural Promotion Program (RAPP), which is investing $1.2 billion to promote U.S. agricultural products in existing and emerging markets. Kansas, with its vast production of wheat, beef, and grains, stands to benefit significantly from this program. Several organizations representing Kansas's top agricultural commodities received substantial funding.  Kansas Deputy Secretary of Agriculture Kelsey Olson moderates a fireside chat with Under Secretary Alexis M. Taylor during the ninth annual Kansas Governor’s Summit on Agricultural Growth in Manhattan, Kansas. Additionally, I emphasized the USDA’s commitment to supporting specialty crop producers through initiatives like the Assisting Specialty Crop Exports (ASCE). This program is especially important for smaller producers, who often face unique barriers when trying to enter international markets. By investing in export market development for specialty crops, we are helping to level the playing field for all producers, ensuring that Kansas farmers, from large-scale operations to family-run farms, can reach new consumers around the world.The Power of Trade to Drive Innovation A clear theme resonated at both the Colombia Trade Mission and the Kansas Governor’s Summit on Agricultural Growth: the power of trade to drive innovation and create opportunities. Trade is not only about selling products; it is about building relationships, fostering collaboration, and encouraging the exchange of innovative ideas and technologies. Whether it is developing more sustainable farming practices or finding new markets for emerging products, trade opens doors that lead to long-term growth. Through ongoing partnerships with foreign governments, international organizations, and U.S. state and federal agencies, USDA is working tirelessly to break down trade barriers and create new opportunities for American farmers. We aim to maintain U.S. agriculture's global leadership by not only promoting our traditional commodities but also fostering innovation and new product development. Looking Ahead As we look ahead, the opportunities for U.S. agriculture are abundant. We are seeing increasing demand for American products in regions like Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Africa. With programs like RAPP and ASCE, we are equipping U.S. exporters with the tools they need to compete in these dynamic markets. I am grateful for the partnerships and insights gained from the Colombia Trade Mission and the Kansas Governor’s Summit on Agricultural Growth. Together, we will continue to champion American agriculture on the global stage, ensuring that U.S. farmers, ranchers, and agribusinesses remain at the forefront of international trade. Thank you for your continued engagement and partnership. I look forward to sharing more updates with you in future posts as we advance our collective goal of expanding U.S. agricultural exports and supporting the livelihoods of American producers. Respectfully, Alexis M. Taylor has served as the U.S. Department of Agriculture Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs since December 2022. She previously served as Director of the Oregon Department of Agriculture from 2017 to 2022. More information about FAS and its work to advance U.S. agricultural interests around the globe is available at www.fas.usda.gov |
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The following GAIN reports were released on October 31, 2024. _______In July 2024, USDA published the final notice allowing certain table grapes to be safely imported by the United States from parts of Chile. The new requirements will allow table grapes from areas of Chile where European grapevine moth is either absent or at a low prevalence and will also protect U.S. agriculture from Chilean false red mite. These requirements reduce the use of methyl bromide and will also serve to increase the competitiveness of Chilean table grapes. In Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25, Post estimates that table grape production will increase by 6.6 percent, totaling 723,000 metric tons (MT) due to high yields. Exports will increase by 7.8 percent and total 570,000 MT. For apples, MY 2024/25 production will reach 920,000 MT, a 0.7 percent increase driven by high yields. Exports will increase by one percent and total 507,000 MT. Chile’s MY 2024/25 fresh pear production will increase by 2.5 percent, totaling 205,000 MT. Pear exports are projected to increase by 4.7 percent and total 104,700 MT.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. |
The following GAIN reports were released on October 30, 2024.
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Angola: FAIRS Country Report Annual
This report summarizes Angola’s general food laws, regulatory authorities, major import/export procedures, food and packaging/labeling regulations, registration measures, and other trade facilitation issues. At the end, it provides contact information for major government regulatory agencies and a list of useful local public and private sector contacts for additional technical product-specific information and import assistance. This report outlines the most important information that companies need to pay attention to when exporting food and agricultural products to Angola. It contains information from the government authorities who oversee imports of agricultural and food products, including the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry and the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, as well as subordinate agencies of these institutions. This country report is designed to be used in conjunction with the 2024 FAIRS Export Certificate report.
Angola: FAIRS Export Certificate Report Annual
This report documents Angola’s technical policies, practices, and import requirements for food and agricultural products. Notable updates include numerous veterinary health certificates for animals and animal genetics. In the absence of a food safety law, Angola follows international Codex Alimentarius standards. This report is designed to be used in conjunction with the 2024 FAIRS Annual Country Report.
Argentina: Oilseeds and Products Update
Post increases marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 soybean production to reach 52 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT higher than USDA official and Post’s previous estimate on 17.2 million hectares (MHA) harvested as producers shift to more soy away from corn over fears of the impact of corn stunt (leafhopper/Chicharrita) in corn, continued low prices, and expected dry conditions. Soybean crush is increased to 42 MMT in MY2024/25 fueled by higher production and higher imports, primarily from Paraguay as Argentina’s processing sector continues its recovery from several years of drought. Sunflower production is also poised to increase to 1.9 MHA planted resulting in a production of 4 MMT in MY2024/2025 with expansion tempered by dry conditions in the northern growing region at the ideal planting window. Post maintains previous peanut production, crush, and export forecasts in MY2024/2025 and MY2023/2024 with a production of 1.35 MMT in both years.
China: Beautification Plans Shed Insight on Climate and Rural Development Efforts
On December 27, 2023, China issued Guidelines to Comprehensively Promote the Development of a “Beautiful China.” The guidelines propose several goals, tasks, and reforms for building a beautiful China between 2027 and 2035. Following the central-level, national guidelines, many provinces have formulated their own beautifications plans. This report provides an overview of the PRC’s central guidelines and provincial beautification plans that highlight or reference agriculture and forestry. In some respects, the plans encompass prior efforts or initiatives for sustainable or climate-related agricultural initiatives or development programs that are now repackaged through this broader effort.
Cote d'Ivoire: Cote d'Ivoire - It's Time for US Wines in Abidjan
Côte d'Ivoire's wine market is a growing, and set to further expand thanks to the takeoff of a modern and internationally well connected middle class. At the same time, urbanization is expanding alongside a dynamic retail market offering U.S. wines a potentially attractive export destination. With no real domestic wine production of its own, the Ivoirian wine marketplace is dependent on imports. In 2023 (latest full calendar year data), Côte d’Ivoire with $64.1 million in wine imports (harmonized system heading 2204), is sub-Saharan Africa’s largest wine importer; outpacing the likes of South Africa ($54.3 million), Namibia ($40 million), and Kenya ($23.9 million). Côte d'Ivoire, with a projected gross domestic product (GDP) of 7 percent in 2024, is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, as well as the economic engine of Francophone West Africa. Ivorians are already habituated having wine with their meals and accustomed to pairing these to compliment even their renown local spicy dishes.
European Union: European Commission Authorizes Four GE Crops for Import
On October 8, 2024, the European Commission approved four genetically engineered crops (corn and cotton) for food and animal feed. The four authorizations were published in the European Union’s Official Journal on October 10, 2024, and they remain valid for 10 years.
Japan: FAIRS Export Certificate Report Annual
This report lists major export certificates required by the Japanese government to export food and agricultural products from the United States to Japan. For more information on Japan's import requirements, see the Food and Agricultural Import Regulations and Standards (FAIRS) Annual Country Report for Japan at https://gain.fas.usda.gov/#
Turkiye: Grain and Feed Update
Turkiye’s overall production of grain for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to drop year-over-year due to drier-than-normal weather conditions across most of the country. Despite wheat production falling year-over-year by almost 2.0 million metric tons (MMT), Turkiye still has huge inventories of wheat that it is trying to liquidate. Imports and exports of wheat are both forecast down because of internal pricing dynamics and government limits on imports. To stabilize rising corn prices resulting from a decline in production, the government instituted a 1.0 MMT corn tariff rate quota (TRQ). Rice production is expected to be slightly better than last year, but still below long-term averages.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
The following GAIN reports were released on October 29, 2024.
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Canada: Canada Consults on Compositional Requirements for Infant Foods
Health Canada opened public consultations on proposed compositional requirements for infant foods and foods currently regulated as foods for special dietary use. Interested stakeholders may submit their comments until December 23, 2024.
European Union: FAIRS Export Certificate Report Annual
This guide provides an overview of health certificates needed for exporting plants, animals, foods, and other animal origin products to the European Union. U.S. regulatory agencies have been informed of the wide range of certificates changes that have occurred in the past months and have updated their export manuals to reflect those changes. Sections updated: All sections.
Honduras: FAIRS Country Report Annual
SENASA and ARSA have made significant progress in expediting import procedures with the introduction of online options for requesting import permits and sanitary authorizations of imported raw materials that provide immediate electronic delivery to ports of entry. ARSA has approved and published updates to the national food and beverage regulations. These include a new law regulating energy drinks, certification for good manufacturing processes, and an agreement to establish the National Center for Foodborne Diseases (CENETA).
Honduras: FAIRS Export Certificate Report Annual
The National Plant, Animal Health and Food Safety Service (SENASA) is the regulatory agency in Honduras that is responsible for the inspection of all agricultural products that enter the country. The Sanitary Regulation Agency (Agencia de Regulacion Sanitaria-ARSA) oversees product registration, authorizations for import of raw materials, and additives for food processing, surveillance and inspection of food products approved for sale in the retail or wholesale market in Honduras. The certificates requested by these two agencies are described in this report along with recent changes to rules for license permits, sanitary authorizations and import permits.
India: Agricultural Biotechnology Annual
Over the past two decades, India’s political landscape continues to hinder the developments in agriculture biotechnology. Bt cotton (Bacillus thuringiensis) approved in 2002 remains the sole biotech-derived crop approved for commercial cultivation. Despite regulatory clearances for environmental release of GE eggplant and mustard events, the approval remains stuck under judicial review and political considerations. Soybean and canola oils from select GE soybean and canola events, and some food ingredients from microbial biotechnology are approved for import. On July 29, 2024, India’s apex regulatory authority recommended the imports of GE alfalfa hay from the United States subject to other statutory clearances. Formal notification is pending. On July 23, 2024, the Supreme Court of India directed the Indian government to evolve a national policy on genetically modified crops by holding national consultation with all stakeholders within the next four months.
Peru: Retail Foods Annual
The food retail sector in Peru is anticipated to experience 5 percent growth by the conclusion of 2024, attributed to the overall enhancement in the country's economic landscape and targeted strategies devised by both the modern and traditional food channels. FAS Lima anticipates a resurgence in U.S. consumer-oriented products, particularly in categories such as meat, fruits, tree nuts, non-alcoholic beverages, and more. This positive outlook is fueled by the recovery of key export sectors and the implementation of tailored approaches to cater to evolving consumer demands in Peru’s market.
Poland: Direct Versus Indirect Trade - Poland's Hidden Market for US Agricultural Exports
The U.S. Census Bureau's (USCB) bulk, intermediate, and consumer-oriented export data tracks U.S. food and agricultural trade shipped directly to Poland. However, it does not measure the substantial levels of the U.S. agricultural trade to Poland routed through Western European ports of entry. According to USCB, U.S. suppliers shipped $376 million of U.S. food and agriculture to Poland in 2023. However, according to Poland’s Central Statistical Office (CSO), which measures trade by country of origin and, therefore, reflects both direct and indirect trade, Poland sourced upwards of $740 million of U.S. food and agriculture in 2023. FAS/Warsaw encourages USDA cooperators and other U.S. food and agricultural exporters and stakeholders to look beyond USCB data and review different data sources when considering resource allocation and market development strategies for Poland.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
USDA Launches Food for Opportunity Program
New Biden-Harris Administration Program to Promote the Use of Non-Traditional Commodities in Food Assistance Programs
DES MOINES, Iowa, Oct. 30, 2024 – The U.S. Department of Agriculture has launched the Food for Opportunity Program, or FFO, designed to expand opportunities for non-traditional U.S. commodities to qualify for various international food assistance programs, Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis M. Taylor announced today at the World Food Prize.
The new pilot program managed by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, known as FAS, will solicit applicants to apply for FFO and provide non-traditional commodities to be tested at active McGovern-Dole International Food for Education and Child Nutrition Program projects.
“The goal of Food for Opportunity is to assess the suitability of commodities for use in USDA international food assistance programs and to evaluate potential future use in the McGovern-Dole program,” Under Secretary Taylor said. “Through Food for Opportunity, USDA will potentially expand the commodity list available to future implementers but will also learn what effect new commodities have on school meals and how they benefit the intended beneficiaries.”
Food for Opportunity is funded with $50 million provided as part of the $1 billion investment of Commodity Credit Corporation funds deployed in April 2024 by USDA and the U.S. Agency for International Development, purchasing U.S.-grown commodities to provide emergency food assistance to people in need throughout the world.
In seeking stakeholder input through a Request for Information, USDA received 26 comments covering 44 commodities, foods, and items to assist with the design of FFO. In the coming weeks, FAS will solicit applicants to run the pilot program, based on the input received from the RFI. Evaluation and monitoring practices are inherent in the new program and feedback will be incorporated as appropriate.
The McGovern-Dole Program provides pre-school and school food for education programs in foreign countries to improve food security, reduce the incidence of hunger, and improve literacy and primary education, particularly with respect to girls. Through the McGovern-Dole Program, the United States is the largest donor to global school feeding programs.
According to the Global Report on Food Crises and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, an estimated 205 million people need life-saving food assistance, and some 768 million people are facing chronic hunger.
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USDA touches the lives of all Americans each day in so many positive ways. Under the Biden-Harris Administration, USDA is transforming America’s food system, with a greater focus on more resilient local and regional food production, fairer markets for all producers, ensuring access to safe, healthy, and nutritious food in all communities, building new markets and streams of income for farmers and producers using climate-smart food and forestry practices, making historic investments in infrastructure and clean energy capabilities in rural America, and committing to equity across the Department by removing systemic barriers and building a workforce more representative of America. To learn more, visit www.usda.gov.
The following GAIN reports were released on October 28, 2024.
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Bulgaria: Bulgarian Corn Crop Estimated to be the Lowest in Over a Decade
FAS/Sofia has revised further downward its estimate for Bulgaria’s MY 2024/25 corn crop to 1.7 million metric tons (MMT) based on the latest harvest data and which, if confirmed, will be the smallest crop since 2012. This is due to the severe summer heat and drought. Conversely, based on the latest harvest data the estimate for the barley crop is increased to 1.1 MMT (compared to 797,000 MT last year), the highest since 2004. Wheat production is also adjusted slightly upward to 7 MMT, based on the final harvest data. Abundant winter grains production, a much better quality of the crop, and favorable export demand have all led to a strong start to the export season. At the same time, MY 2024/25 corn exports and domestic use are forecast to decline sharply due to the local deficit and allegedly poor quality of the crop. Wheat and barley feed/industrial uses are expected to increase and compensate for the lower corn consumption.
Indonesia: Biofuels Annual
Indonesia’s fuel grade ethanol consumption remains small and localized in 2024, a year after the restart of the ethanol program. The formation of a taskforce for sugarcane expansion is meant to advance Indonesia’s self-sufficiency goals in sugar and bioethanol. Biodiesel production is projected to rise by 3 percent to 13 billion liters in 2024 on expected higher diesel use combined with the government-mandated 35-percent blending rate. Combined palm oil mill effluent (POME) and palm fatty acid distillate (PFAD) exports remain high on continued demand from overseas markets, lower export levies relative to crude palm oil, and a lack of incentives for local refiners to use biodiesel feedstocks other than crude palm oil.
Poland: Poland GE Feed Ban Postponed for Five Years
The Parliament of Poland extended until January 1, 2030, exemptions of provisions under the 2006 Feed Act to ban the use of genetically engineered (GE) feed ingredients. Poland is a major import of soybean meal, including GE meal, with imports reaching $1.5 billion each year.
Ukraine: Grain and Feed Quarterly
Ukraine’s wheat, barley, and rye harvest for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 has concluded. MY2024/25 corn production is smaller due to lower yields. Post estimates MY2024/25 beginning stocks for grains at minimal levels, as Ukraine was able to maintain an independent export corridor out of its Odesa region ports for most of MY2023/24. Domestic grain prices are on the rise, prompting farmers to delay their selling decisions. Regarding export market structure, Ukraine cut its exports to transit destinations and started selling directly to immediate consumers, which was the modus operandi before the full-scale Russian invasion.
For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.
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The following GAIN reports were released on October 24, 2024.
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Hong Kong: The Hong Kong Wonton - Volume 4 Issue 14
Bite size local news, Post reports and activity summaries wrapped by ATO Hong Kong. In this issue: Happy hour in Hong Kong as government lowers duty on distilled spirits; ATO Hong Kong showcases U.S. ingredients with Golden Week mooncake promotion; mainland visitors give a boost to Hong Kong and Macau during Golden Week; Fine dining goes casual to woo customers; Hong Kong health products and popcorn retail outlets close shop in challenging market.
India: Dairy and Products Annual
FAS New Delhi forecasts India’s total milk production in 2025 to rise to 216.5 MMT, attributable to the growing herd size of animals in milk, increased government support for the dairy sector, the expected continuation of good weather, high milk prices, and an absence of a major disease outbreak. The forecasted growth in milk supply is expected to boost production of butter and nonfat dry milk (skim milk powder). Post forecasts these products to reach 7.2 MMT and 0.8 MMT, respectively. Demand-side factors including growing population, rising disposable income, and other physical factors are advancing the domestic consumption of fluid milk, butter, and SMP, which are forecasted to reach 91 MMT, 7.1 MMT, and 0.8 MMT, respectively. While fluid milk and butter exports are forecasted to rise to 0.03 MMT and 0.06 MMT, SMP exports are expected to remain largely unchanged.
Indonesia: Requirement to Register Fresh Food of Animal Origin
On October 27, 2022, FAS Jakarta published a report summarizing the Directorate General of Livestock and Animal Health Service’s (DGLAHS)’s new requirements for importers to register fresh food of animal origin and obtain the resulting distribution license. Since DGLAHS has recently begun to enforce these requirements, importers are now asking U.S. exporters to provide a certificate of analysis (CoA) for at least one of the required testing parameters every six months. This report is based on our assessment of information gathered from DGLAHS and local industry to help U.S. exporters comply with the CoA requirements. U.S. exporters should endeavor to meet this requirement as soon as possible to avoid jeopardizing their sales to Indonesia. Since these requirements primarily impact U.S. beef exports, this report is focused accordingly. Please note that this guidance is based on information gathered informally and may be subject to change.
Kazakhstan: Grain and Feed Update
Kazakh farmers are finishing harvest, having dealt with rains in early September and cold night temperatures in October that reduced overall quality but only marginally affected quantity. Kazakhstan’s estimated wheat production is unchanged at 15.8 million tons in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025. Wheat exports are reduced to 9.0 million tons because of the on ongoing trade spat between Russia and Kazakhstan that has threatened Kazakh traders ability to export via Russia. Barley production is unchanged, estimated at 3.4 million tons and exports are likewise unchanged at 1.6 million tons. Most barley is being exported to other Central Asian countries or China and is more resilient to the ongoing trade issues with Russia.
Philippines: Philippine Department of Agriculture Discontinues the Imposition of Price-Based Special Safeguard Measure on Mechanically Deboned Meat of Chicken
On October 4, 2024, the Philippine Department of Agriculture amended Department Order No. 16 (2024), removing mechanically deboned or separated meat of chicken (HS Code 0207.14.91) from the list of agricultural products subjected to a price-based special safeguard (SSG) measure. The revised Department Order requests the Bureau of Customs to continue imposing the price-based SSG on 12 agricultural tariff lines.
South Korea: Dairy and Products Annual
FAS/Seoul forecasts Korea’s 2025 milk production to decrease to 1.92 million tons. Korean milk production continues to decline in line with industry contraction and demographic-driven consumption declines. FAS/Seoul forecasts 2025 cheese imports to increase to 150,000 tons as Korean demand for cheese continues a steady upward trend and consumers become increasingly interested in dairy products as a protein source. FAS/Seoul forecasts 2025 nonfat dry milk consumption to remain stable at 20,000 tons.
The following GAIN reports were released on October 23, 2024.
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Australia: Grain and Feed Update
Australian winter crops have had very challenging seasonal conditions for MY 2024/25, including low soil moisture at planting, below-average rainfall, and frost damage. Despite these difficulties, wheat production is expected to be above-average, while barley is forecast slightly below-average. The sorghum summer crop is off to an excellent start across all growing regions. Good soil moisture reserves and warmer-than-usual temperatures have led to an early start to planting. The weather outlook also encourages a higher-than-expected crop area and supports an expectation of well above-average yields for MY 2024/25. Despite generally favorable seasonal conditions leading up to planting and good irrigation water availability, rice production is projected to decline significantly. This decline follows the decision by the major entity responsible for processing and marketing the majority of Australia's rice crop to impose a disincentive to limit production to a targeted level.
Brazil: Dairy and Products Annual
Milk production in Brazil for 2024 is expected to increase by 1 percent to 25 million metric tons (MMT) and to increase again in 2025 to 25.4 MMT. Industry expectations are elevated by larger investments in technology, increase in milk prices and a slowing of the increase in inputs. However, the estimate for 2024 is tempered by adverse weather patterns, including the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul. Post estimates an increase in butter production in 2024 to 780 MT and 795 MT in 2025.
Brazil: Oilseeds and Products Update
Post increased its estimate for soybean production in 2024/25 to 161 million metric tons (MMT), from the previous estimate of 160 MMT. Another record export is expected in 2024/25 with Post forecasting 102 MMT, exceeding the estimate for the previous season of 99 MMT. For 2024/25, Post revised the forecast for soybean crush up to 55.5 MMT, a 2.5 percent increase compared with the 2023/2024 estimate.
Canada: Dairy and Products Annual
FAS/Canada projects modest milk production growth in 2025, based on a slight increase in fluid milk consumption, and steady requirements for industrial milk. Production of cheese and butter is forecast to increase modestly in 2025, in face of adequate stocks, and solid demand. Sustained growth in cheese imports is expected to continue into 2025, as fill rates of various tariff rate quotas improve, and market access commitments expand. Skim milk powder exports are expected to remain within the limits set by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, as the industry continues to focus on producing high protein diary ingredients, like milk protein isolates.
China: Dairy and Products Annual
Post forecasts domestic raw milk production to grow marginally due to improved dairy milk yield despite declining cow inventories in 2025. Imports of fluid milk, whole milk powder, and skim milk powder are forecast to continue declining in 2025 due to higher domestic milk production. Post forecasts cheese imports to decline in 2025 due to the decreased demand for processed cheese. Butter imports are forecast at similar levels in 2025. Post forecasts whey imports to stay at similar levels in 2025 as demand for feed use is expected to grow while demand for food use is anticipated to decline.
Chile: Dairy and Products Annual
The Chilean dairy sector is crucial to the economy, producing milk, cheese, butter, yogurt, and powdered milk. In marketing year (MY) 2024, milk receipts increased by two percent to 1,293 million liters, and fluid milk production rose by seven percent. In MY 2024, Chilean imports of dairy products from the United States saw a notable increase of 10 percent. In MY 2025, whole milk powder production will increase by 3.8 percent to 54,000 metric tons, driven by higher production levels. Consumption is expected to rise by two percent to 51,000 metric tons. Imports will remain flat at 4,000 metric tons in MY 2024. Exports are projected to grow by 16.6 percent to 7,000 metric tons. In MY 2025, Chile’s skim milk powder production is projected to increase by 11.1 percent to 20,000 metric tons. Consumption will grow by 4.8 percent to 22,000 metric tons in MY 2025. Imports will reach 8,000 metric tons, with the United States being the leading supplier.
Colombia: Grain and Feed Update
In marketing year (MY) 2024/2025, Colombia’s corn production is projected to remain at 1.5 million metric tons (MMT), 6 percent lower year-on-year. This stagnation is attributed to declining domestic corn prices, which have discouraged farmers from expanding corn cultivation. Milled rice production is increased to 1.98 MMT, as favorable weather conditions and a slow price recovery supported moderate rice cultivation gains. Corn imports are expected to increase, driven by higher demand from the animal feed sector and moderate economic growth. The United States has vastly increased its market share in Colombia, benefiting from higher duties imposed on Mercosur countries under the Andean Price Band System. Since 2023, U.S. corn enjoys duty-free entry into Colombia under the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. Colombia's rice and wheat imports are also projected to grow in MY 2024/2025, in line with higher consumption levels.
New Zealand: Dairy and Products Annual
New Zealand fluid milk production is forecasted to be 21.3 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2025 market year (MY). This is a decrease on the previous 5-year average of 21.5 MMT, reflecting the decreasing herd numbers and the additional effects of the following: La Niña weather pattern forecasted, improving farm revenue, continued on-farm inflation on inputs, and high interest rates on debt servicing. FAS/Wellington forecasts relatively consistent exports for dairy products between the 2024 and 2025 market years. Whole Milk Powder (WMP) will continue to be the primary dairy export to overseas markets. However, New Zealand milk processing companies continue to shift their processing capabilities from drying milk powder to more fresh products.
Philippines: Dairy and Products Annual
Post forecasts demand for dairy products to increase 2 percent to 3 million metric tons (MMT) in liquid milk equivalent (LME) in 2025. The Philippines imports 99 percent of its dairy requirement, as domestic production cannot meet demand. Post forecasts skim milk imports to grow 3 percent to 160,000 MT, while fluid milk imports remain flat at 118,000 MT in 2025. Cheese imports will continue to decline due to high prices and tight supply.
Taiwan: Dairy and Products Annual
Starting in 2025, Taiwan will eliminate tariffs on liquid milk imports from New Zealand. Taiwan dairy farmers are worried about the future, as the primary dairy product in Taiwan is fresh milk, with only a small portion used for other dairy beverages or products. In the long term, due to a growing awareness on healthy eating, there is strong and increasing demand for dairy products among the Taiwanese population. In 2023, imports of dairy products totaled $654 million, with the main suppliers being New Zealand, the United States, and France. Post estimates that Taiwan imports will remain stable in 2025 with 66,000 MT of liquid milk, 24,000 MT of butter, 25,000 MT of skim milk powder (SMP) and 34,000 MT of whole milk powder (WMP).
Ukraine: Dairy and Products Annual
In 2025, Ukraine’s fluid milk production will decrease slightly due to growth in the size and productivity of industrial farms, despite a larger decrease in dairy cow inventory. The production of most dairy products will contract insignificantly in 2025 on the drop in fluid milk production, continuing population outflows, and depressed disposable incomes. Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and mobilization will be the main risk factors for both milk producers and dairy processors. Exports of dairy products will be sluggish due to the shrinking raw milk supply.
