USDA FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE,update

 

The following GAIN reports were released on April 2, 2024. _______   Brazil: Sustainable Agriculture Programs in Brazil- Past Present and Future Brazil, a BRICS emerging economy, is the world’s sixth-largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter. Change in land use and forests (including deforestation and wildfires) is the main source of GHGs in Brazil, followed closely by agricultural production. Following COP 29, Brazil updated its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), committing to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 48 percent by 2025 and 53 percent by 2030, compared to 2005 emissions. Given the importance of agriculture, Brazil has adopted and implemented regulations to make these activities more sustainable, with the main goals of mitigating GHGs and adapting to climate change. The Low-Carbon Agriculture (ABC) Plan, the Safra Plan, and the National Program for the Conversion of Degraded Pastures into Production Systems (PNCPC) are among the most significant recent initiatives. This report highlights Brazil’s programs to mitigate carbon emissions in the agricultural sector and promote sustainable practices. Canada: Canada Reviews Its Food Safety Legislation The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) opened public consultations on the scheduled five-year review of the Safe Food for Canadians Act (SFCA). Stakeholders are encouraged to submit comments on how this food safety legislation has worked since coming into force in January 2019. China: Cotton and Products Annual Marketing year (MY) 24/25 cotton imports are forecast at 2.4 million metric tons (MMT) on higher domestic and international demand for textile and apparel products. After a sharp decline in early 2023, exports of textile and apparel products have rebounded, along with demand for imported cotton. Imports for MY 23/24 are raised to 2.3 MMT on strong demand and quota availability. Production for MY 24/25 is forecast at 5.9 MMT on stable planted area in Xinjiang and declining planted area in other regions. China: Grain and Feed Annual Feed production is forecast lower on declining demand from poultry and livestock producers. Corn production in MY2024/25 is forecast larger than MY2023/24 due to improved yields and a slightly larger planting area, despite government policies encouraging increased soy area and reduced corn area. Lower corn prices will encourage higher corn utilization and lower wheat utilization in feed production. Forecast sorghum and barley production will remain stable in MY2024/25, while wheat production is forecast 1 percent higher on improved yield and steady planted area. MY2024/25 rough rice production is forecast to increase slightly due to larger planting area and yield. China: Overview of Feed and Feed Additives and Pet Food Regulations for Export to the PRC The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) reorganized and restructured its food safety regulatory system in 2018-2019, substantially changing registration procedures and import requirements applicable to U.S. exports of feed and feed additives. This report provides an overview of the current regulatory authorities and PRC policies for feed, feed additives, and pet food product registrations and imports into the PRC. Exporters are strongly encouraged to conduct due diligence regarding how to comply with all mandatory requirements for their specific product(s), such as requirements pertaining to labeling, packaging, certifications, and shipping documentation. Ghana: Grain and Feed Annual Imports of wheat and rice are forecast up in MY2024/25 mainly because of increased consumption. Corn and rice production is expected to increase due to favorable weather conditions, adoption of improved seed varieties, and the implementation of the second phase of the Government of Ghana’s (GOG) farmer support program. India: Cotton and Products Annual FAS Mumbai estimates marketing year (MY) 2024/25 India cotton production at 25.4 million 480 lb. bales on 12.4 million hectares area planted, a two percent decrease from the previous year due to the expectation that farmers will shift cotton acreage to higher return crops such as pulses, maize, and paddy. Mill consumption is estimated at 24.5 million 480 lb. bales, two percent higher from last year, as yarn and textile demand improves in major international markets. With the recent notification of an import duty recension on extra-long staple (ELS) cotton, imports are estimated 20 percent higher at 2.4 million 480 lb. bales. Italy: Food Processing Ingredients Annual The Italian food-processing industry continues to be highly fragmented, characterized by growing consolidation of smaller companies. In 2023, U.S. agricultural exports to Italy were $1.8 billion, while U.S. imports from Italy were $7.4 billion. Italy depends almost entirely on raw material imports, most of which come from other EU countries. Tanzania: Grain and Feed Annual FAS Dar es Salaam anticipates corn production will decline 6 percent in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 as farmers switch to alternative crops due to low corn prices. MY 2024/25 wheat imports are anticipated to reach 1.3 million metric tons (MT) as rising incomes and growth in the tourism and hospitality sectors increase demand for wheat products. Rice production for MY 2024/25 is anticipated to increase by 115,000 MT due to higher area harvested as some farmers switch from corn to rice, however yields will likely be negatively impacted by an outbreak of bacterial leaf blight. Turkiye: Navigating Turkiye's Customs Duties on Ag Products  At the beginning of each year, the Turkish Ministry of Trade (MoT) publishes the tariff schedule for all commodities including agricultural products for the upcoming year. Depending on market conditions, the MoT may adjust tariff rates during the year for selected imports of agricultural and other products. So far in 2024, the MoT has temporarily lowered tariffs for sunflowerseed for crushing, sunflower oil, and rice. Other tariff adjustments may happen at any time during the year.   For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.

The following GAIN reports were released on April 1, 2024.

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Brazil: Cotton and Products Annual

For MY 2024/25, Post forecasts cotton area to grow 13 percent compared to the current season, to 1.87 million hectares. Post also forecasts cotton production at a record 15.4 million bales (3.3 million metric tons (MMT)) on the back of significant area increase. Better cotton prices and profitability, compared to corn, are factors contributing to area expansion. Yields are expected to reduce, however, by nearly nine percent compared to MY 2023/24, considering the potentially adverse effects of an El Niño year. Post forecasts MY 2024/25 exports at 10.5 million bales (2.3 MMT), five percent less than MY 2023/24’s estimate at 11 million bales (2.4 MMT) due to higher global beginning stocks and expected increased competition with U.S. cotton. Post forecasts domestic consumption at 3.5 million bales (0.76 MMT), relatively stable from MY 2023/24’s maintained estimate at 3.5 million bales (0.75MMT). Post forecasts MY 2024/25 ending stocks at 7.6 million bales (1.7 MMT) due to higher production and reduced exports.

Brazil: Grain and Feed Annual

Despite initially optimistic projections for the 2023/24 harvest, the El Niño has negatively impacted the corn and wheat crops. As a result, Post estimates corn production in MY 2023/24 will decrease to 122 MMT. However, corn production is forecast to increase to 129 MMT in MY 2024/25, in line with an expected rise in consumption, especially by the feed and ethanol industries. Wheat crops have also suffered severe losses during the 2023/24 harvest, resulting in low-quality grains. This has led to an increase in wheat imports for MY 2023/24 to 5.5 MMT, which should drop to 4.5 MMT in 2024/25 as wheat production improves in the country. Meanwhile, rice producers have seen an increase in planted area and production this season, following two consecutive years of low prices and profitability.

Canada: Health Canada Consulting on Policy Revision for Foods Derived from Somatic Cell Nuclear Transfer

Health Canada is proposing a policy revision for foods derived from somatic cell nuclear transfer (SCNT), cattle and swine and their progeny. Currently, Health Canada considers foods derived from SCNT cattle, swine, and their progeny as novel foods and subject to the regulations concerning novel foods including a pre-market notification and assessment prior to approval for sale in Canada. The policy revision would mean that these foods are no longer considered novel by Health Canada and would no longer require pre-market notification. The consultation will run from March 26, 2024 until May 25, 2024.

Chile: Food Processing Ingredients Annual

Chile has a modern and developed food and beverage processing industry. The Chilean food sector is the second most relevant export sector in the country after mining. There are significant opportunities for imported food ingredients in Chile, as half of all ingredients used by the food processing industry are imported. U.S. products and ingredients which have good sales potential in the Chile market are: bakery products, animal proteins, tree nuts, dairy products, natural flavors, sauces and condiments, and edible oils.

Costa Rica: Food Processing Ingredients

Though relatively small, the Costa Rican food processing sector relies on U.S. exporters to maintain critical supply chains. Proximity, reliability, and familiarity help make the United States the preferred supplier for a wide range of food processing ingredients, including wheat, corn, and animal proteins. U.S. agricultural and related products exports to Costa Rica exceeded $1 billion in 2023, despite global logistics challenges and associated increased shipping costs.

Dominican Republic: Grain and Feed Annual

Wheat consumption in the Dominican Republic (DR) during marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (July 2024/June 2025) is forecast at 490,000 metric tons (MT), unchanged from the previous MY. Dominican wheat imports are forecast to rise to 670,000 MT due to manufacturers’ international expansion plans and growth in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) sector. Corn imports for MY 2024/25 (October 2024/September 2025) are expected to reach 1.57 million MT due to continued strong demand from the poultry sector. The projection for milled rice production in MY 2024/25 (July 2024/June 2025) stands at 680,000 MT, driven by reservoirs at full capacity and the adoption of mechanization in select production areas. Meanwhile, rice imports are anticipated to see a slight uptick, fueled by higher consumption and the expiration of tariff rate quotas.

Guatemala: Sugar Annual

In marketing year (MY)2024/25, Guatemala is forecast to produce 2.4 million metric tons (MT) of sugar from a harvested area of 242,000 hectares (Ha). Though harvested area is increasing as positive sugar prices in the international market motivate producers to keep up renovation with improved local genetics, overall production is forecast to drop four percent for the estimated harvest of MY2023/24 (2.5 million MT), due to a late start to the rainy season and an extended El Niño year. Stocks in MY 2024/25 will drop to 131,000 MT, to secure supply for the domestic consumption, which has been revised up to 1.2 million MT, following rapid growth and expansion of the food and beverage sector; exports will drop proportionally.

India: Food Processing Ingredients Annual

The Indian food processing industry is an important driver of the country’s economic growth. It is experiencing significant development and is innovating in the field of processed and packaged foods. The sector significantly contributes to India's gross domestic product (GDP), exports, investment, and employment. The market for imported food products has grown these past few years; it is influenced by India's growing middle class, affluent professionals, brand-oriented importers, modern retail outlets, e-commerce retailers, and trend setting restaurants. These developments bode well for the introduction of U.S.-origin food processing ingredients in the Indian market.

Indonesia: Grain and Feed Annual

The Red Sea conflict is not expected to pose significant threats to Indonesian grain imports. Driven by demand from the recent general elections, as well as high local corn prices, imports of wheat for food and feed consumption are estimated to increase for 2023/24. Post-election demand for wheat and rice are forecast to be corrected in 2024/25.

Peru: Food Processing Ingredients Annual

Peru has a robust food processing industry that is an integral part of its economy. The food industry contributes to nearly 27 percent of the country's industrial gross domestic product (GDP). However, the non-primary manufacturing sector, which encompasses food and beverage production, experienced a decline of 8.1 percent in 2023. This was primarily due to lower domestic consumption, unfavorable weather conditions, and political and social unrest, which ultimately impacted the country's overall GDP growth. As a result, the total GDP fell by 0.6 percent in 2023.

Pakistan: Grain and Feed Annual

Given record area and prospects for good yields, wheat production in 2024/25 is forecast to be a record 28.8 million tons. Due to an anticipated increase in area, 2024/25 rice production is also forecast to set a record. Meanwhile, with higher returns for other crops, corn area and output are forecast to decrease. Due to the pace of imports through February 2024, the 2023/24 wheat import forecast is increased to 3.3 million tons. Rice exports in 2024/25 are forecast to fall from the record 2023/24 levels as the global market conditions favoring Pakistan’s rice exports are unlikely to be sustained into 2025.

Pakistan: Oilseeds and Products Annual

While there is still considerable uncertainty regarding implementation, in January 2024 the government approved a system allowing for the resumption of genetically engineered commodity imports. As a result, rapeseed and soybean imports are forecast to rebound in 2024/25, and domestic crush and use is expected to increase accordingly. In line with population growth, palm oil imports are forecast to grow in 2024/25. Better returns from alternative crops is causing stagnation in domestic oilseed output.

Philippines: Food Processing Ingredients Annual

As the Philippines’ economic growth outpaces its neighboring countries, the market presents stronger opportunities this year for U.S. food and beverage ingredients, including wheat, dairy products, poultry, pork, beef, starch products, processed and dried fruits, food preparations, and soy. As the food and beverage manufacturing sector reached higher capacity utilization and value of production in 2023, FAS Manila estimates three percent sales growth in 2024 with the easing of food inflation and thriftier consumer spending. The United States remains the largest single-country exporter to the Philippines with 20 percent market share.

South Africa: Oilseeds and Products Annual

Post forecasts that South Africa’s oilseed area will be maintained at elevated levels in marketing year 2024/25. South Africa’s summer rainfall oilseed crops in marketing year 2023/24 have been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected major drop in crop volumes, creating an optimistic outlook for higher crop area in marketing year 2024/25. Oilseeds are important rotational crops. Stable local demand for oilseed crushing, coupled with potential export markets should motivate producers to maintain oilseed area. Despite major investments over the past 15 years to expand oilseed processing capabilities, production has exceeded crushing capacity, shifting excess oilseeds to export markets. South Africa’s economic challenges, policy uncertainties, rolling blackouts, high interest rates, utility costs, and inflation are likely to delay significant investments to further expand crushing capacity.

Tunisia: Grain and Feed Annual

Favorable winter growing conditions set Tunisia up for an above average 2024 harvest. The wheat and barley crops have developed well entering the most critical growing period in April. Post forecasts MY 2024/25 wheat and barley production at 1.25 MMT and 600,000 MT, respectively, with imports at 1.8 MMT and 500,000 MT. Recent policy changes now allow private companies to import barley, and Post decreased the MY 2023/24 wheat consumption estimate due to occasional wheat shortages caused by Tunisia’s worsening procurement capacity.

 

For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.