GAIN reports

 

The following GAIN reports were released on April 16, 2024. _______   Australia: Sugar Annual Australia’s sugar production is forecast to increase to 4.2 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 from an estimated 4.1 MMT in MY 2023/24. This increase is due to an expected rise in sugar cane crush to 30.5 MMT in MY 2024/25, from an estimate of 29.8 MMT in the previous year. The increase in production is partly driven by an anticipated small increase in sugar cane harvest area for MY 2024/25, along with a modest increase in yield. With overall good growing conditions for the first nine months, the sugar content of the cane is forecast at the past 10-year average. Raw sugar exports are forecast to increase to 3.45 MMT in MY 2024/25 from the prior year estimate of 3.35 MMT, while refined sugar exports are expected to remain very low at 10,000 metric tons (MT). Domestic sugar consumption at around 20 percent of production is forecast to rise due to strong population growth in Australia. Bulgaria: Fish and Seafood Market Brief Bulgaria Bulgaria’s fish and seafood imports have grown steadily over the past decade and have nearly doubled. Bulgarian fish and seafood importers are seeking to expand the variety of fish available to consumers, particularly among the mid and high-value categories. In 2023 Bulgaria imported a record $169.5 million in fish and seafood products, up six percent from 2022. Imports from the United States consisted mainly of live lobsters, Alaska pollock, and products of fish or crustaceans, molluscs, or other aquatic invertebrates. The foodservice sector, which was severely hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, is an important driver of fish and seafood demand growth in Bulgaria. Bulgaria’s per capita fish and seafood consumption is still below the EU average. Costa Rica: Tariff Snapback Boosts Demand for US Rice Costa Rica reinstated 35 percent tariffs on non-U.S.-origin rice after an administrative court overturned an August 2022 tariff reduction and the Government’s appeal was rejected. Demand for U.S. rice has surged following the tariff restoration on reduced South American-origin rice competitiveness. Costa Rican import demand has grown by more than 50 percent since 2022, as area planted to rice has fallen by more than half. U.S. rice exports to Costa Rica plummeted in late 2022 and had remained negligible in 2023, despite duty-free quotas totaling more than 75,000 metric tons. Costa Rica: 2022 Cyberhack Delays 2024 Rice Quota Allocation FAS/San José anticipates Costa Rica's Ministry of Foreign Trade to allocate 2024 Dominican Republic - Central America Free Trade Agreement rice quota allocations by the end of April, effectively constraining the availability of U.S. duty-free rice to the final eight months of 2024. Though Costa Rica typically allocates quota volumes in December of the preceding year, calculations of 2024 volumes have been contested by importers following an extraordinary process resulting from a 2022 cyber attack. The allocation delay became a significantly more pressing issue after Costa Rica restored 35 percent tariffs on non-U.S.-origin rice on April 11, instantly increasing price competitiveness of and demand for U.S. duty-free rice. Ecuador: Once Again Agricultural Trade Between United States and Ecuador Reaches Records Despite continued economic, security and political constraints, U.S. – Ecuador bilateral agricultural and related product trade rose to $4.4 billion in 2023. In addition, U.S. agricultural and related product exports to Ecuador reached a record $805.6 million. This is the fifth record-breaking year in a row for U.S. agricultural exports to Ecuador. This demonstrates continued opportunities in Ecuador and underscores the value of the market growth potential. Eswatini: Sugar Annual Eswatini sugar cane production in MY 2023/24 was affected by unfavorable climatic conditions and proliferation of the yellow aphid leaf. This affected cane production and quality resulting to the season ending earlier than normal. Therefore, Post expects cane production to improve in MY 2024/25 on carry-over cane, a rebound in cane quality and normal weather. Sugar production in MY 2024/25 is forecast to rise on improved cane deliveries and this will translate to an increase in exports. Post expects Eswatini will fully utilize its allocated U.S. tariff rate quota in MYs 2023/24 and 2024/25. Ukraine: Seafood Imports Rebound Despite the War Ukraine’s total imports of fish and seafood rebounded by 28 percent in 2023 after a major war-impacted drop in 2022. The demand for seafood remains strong, although it has shifted from more expensive species to cheaper ones. Strong imports are taking place despite a 20 percent population drop, a major disposable income decline, and new and more expensive trade routes. Imports from the United States in 2023 increased by 32 percent, reaching USD 77 million and returning to the pre-war per capita level. Due to the war, domestic catch remains limited, as fishing in the Black Sea and inland water sources is restricted. Continuing gradual recovery in the income level in 2024 is expected to facilitate further import increases. United Kingdom: UK Tariff Suspensions - Update The United Kingdom (UK) recently announced a number of voluntary tariff suspensions for agricultural and non-agricultural products, including around 70 new agricultural product suspensions. The following report provides an overview on the tariff suspensions and expiry dates. These suspensions are applicable for all countries and without limitations on the volume of exports.   For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. The following GAIN reports were released on April 15, 2024. _______   Burma: Soybean Utilization in Burma This report provides an overview of soybean production and consumption, as well as opportunities for soybean exporters, in Burma. Domestic production supplies most of food and edible oil demand. Imports of soybean meal represent the bulk of soybean use for feed. Canada: Canada Updates on Sulfur Dioxide Used on Fresh Grapes During Storage and Transport The Canadian Food Inspection Agency updated its labeling requirements for fresh grapes and the use of sulfur dioxide gas on fresh grapes during storage and transport – a result of the reclassification of sulfur dioxide when used under different scenarios. Sulfur dioxide gas used during storage and transport of prepackaged fresh grapes in containers other than consumer prepackaged (i.e. shipping or master containers) is considered to be a food additive and sulphites must be declared on the list of ingredients. El Salvador: Sugar Annual Sugar production in marketing year (MY) 24 is estimated at 787,000 metric tons (MT), while production for MY23 reached 765,000 MT. Continued international prices have eased the financial burden exerted by the high cost of inputs on the sugar sector. However, inflationary concerns due to the continued Ukranian crisis has led the Government of El Salvador (GOES) to include sugar in a basket of basic food products with a reduction to zero percent import duty until March 2025. Hong Kong: The Hong Kong Wonton - Volume 4 Issue 6 Bite size local news, Post reports and activity summaries wrapped by ATO Hong Kong. In this issue: Growing Sales of Traditional Chinese Medicine Signal Strong Demand for U.S. Ox Gallstones; Hong Kong Emptied Out Over Easter With Record Jaunts to China; Hong Kong Welcomes 100,000 Visitors on Cruise Ships; 2023 Annual Earnings Show Increase in Macau Monthly Wages; Easter Holidays Attract Fewer Visitors Than Expected; Hong Kong Restaurants Lament Drop In Business Over Easter Holiday; Retail Sales Rose Modestly Over A Year Earlier; Macau Businesses Struggle Without Local Customer Base; A Chance For U.S. Bred Horses To Make History; First Feedback On Waste Charge Trial To Come In May; Hong Kong Customs Seizes Suspected Smuggled Dried Fish Maws, Tobacco Products, And Pharmaceutical Products. Indonesia: Sugar Annual Despite area expansion by private sugar mills, a long, drawn-out El Nino in 2023/24 reduced both sugarcane and plantation white sugar production. The ongoing impact of El Nino will be immediately followed by the onset of the 2024 dry season combined with a predicted La Nina at the end of 2024, which are forecast to further reduce sugarcane and plantation white sugar production. However, high international sugar prices in 2023/24 have reduced imports realization. Considering the increased demand for sugar from the recent general elections and consecutive religious festivities in early 2024, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) increased authorized import allocations for 2024/25. Jamaica: Sugar Annual For marketing year (MY) October 2024 to September 2025, Post forecasts that Jamaica’s sugar production will decline to 34,000 metric tons (MT), in line with the steady decrease observed in the industry over recent years. The Jamaica sugar industry continues to grapple with persistent challenges affecting production, including labor shortages, elevated production costs, and outdated equipment. Despite lower production projections, Jamaica is expected to continue exporting raw sugar to the United States under the World Trade Organization (WTO) tariff-rate quota program. Meanwhile, the country will continue to meet demand in both local and Caribbean export markets, particularly where prices are competitive. Ukraine: Grain and Feed Annual Grain production in Ukraine has remained unprofitable since the Russia’s invasion, and this is expected to translate into decreased grain area for MY2024/25. With CY2024 yields forecast below the previous near-record-breaking CY2023, the total grain MY2024/25 production volume is forecast to be lower than for the previous marketing year. Exports are also forecast to be down, but improved port logistics in the Black Sea are supporting exports and resulting in low ending stocks estimated and forecast for MY2023/24 and MY2024/25. The EU became the primary market for Ukrainian grains for MY2023/24 due to the temporary suspension of import duties and quotas, and this is expected to continue in MY2024/25. Zimbabwe: Sugar Annual Cane production in Zimbabwe is forecast to increase in MY 2024/25, as major dams have sufficient volumes to supply irrigation water to cane-producing regions. Production will also be supported by carry-over cane due to the late start to the MY 2023/24 harvests after a contractual dispute between growers and millers. Post expects sugar production will also improve due to increased cane quality and the expectation of timely deliveries. The government of Zimbabwe introduced a sugar tax on sweetened beverages and a 15 percent VAT on refined sugar, which may have a slight effect on consumption, but the reinstatement of the import duty of sugar is expected to boost domestic sales for Zimbabwean sugar producers. Zimbabwe is expected to fully utilize its allocation of the U.S. sugar tariff-rate quota in FY 2024.   For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. This email was sent to politikimx@gmail.com using GovDelivery Communications Cloud on behalf of: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service · 1400 Independence Avenue, SW · Washington, DC 20250