ΙΜF latest news

 

(Photo: IMF Photo) Economists often share a common understanding of the world based on their training and what they’ve learned from other like-minded professionals. In this podcast, author and Financial Times journalist, Gillian Tett says anthropology offers insights into public policy challenges and helps economists better understand socioeconomic problems. IMF Deputy Secretary, Sabina Bhatia, sits down with Gillian Tett to discuss her recent book Anthro-Vision, a New Way to See in Business and in Life. The conversation took place before a live audience during the IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings. Watch the webcast Read Gillian Tett's Listening To Social Silence in F&D   Gillian Tett is chair of the editorial board and editor-at-large, US of the Financial Times.   Listen to the podcast on: IMF.org | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Libsyn |  Soundcloud | Google Podcasts     Thanks for listening to the podcast. We're always looking to improve your experience so let us know if you have any suggestions! Send your comments to me at bedwards2@imf.org.   Bruce Edwards Producer, IMF Podcasts Dear maria, In today's edition, we highlight: Defeating inflation Economic uncertainty Digital infrastructure Partnerships between economists and humanitarians GLOBAL INFLATION How Should Central Banks Battle High Inflation? (Credit: IMF Photo) While headline inflation is falling, core inflation remains stubbornly high. But central banks must stay the course in bringing this metric down while keeping the financial system stable, the IMF’s Gita Gopinath told a seminar during the IMF’s Spring Meetings last week.   Many countries have responded by raising interest rates, but some reacted late, panelists said. If the United States had started earlier, “we would not be in the midst of this trilemma of trying to simultaneously lower inflation, minimize damage to growth, and maintain financial stability,” Cambridge University’s Mohamed El-Erian said. Policymakers must now contend with a financial system conditioned to “low for long” rates adjusting to a world of “higher for longer.” Should central banks aim for inflation higher than 2 percent, the target of many central banks? Olivier Blanchard, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said he has long favored a higher target, which would give monetary policy more scope to adjust. Similarly, forward guidance—when central banks announce policy action in advance—provides certainty about monetary policy direction, but it can tie policymakers’ hands. “We need escape clauses for when things change” and a different course of action becomes necessary, Gopinath said. Moderator Tom Keene wondered whether a general policy on battling inflation was even possible, given the range of inflation narratives: “Is it every central bank for itself?” Supply shocks aren’t going away in a hurry, panelists said, which means monetary policy will face more serious tradeoffs than before. But the lesson is to let these shocks happen and not fight them too hard, Blanchard said. “If the central banks have built credibility, they won’t suffer second round effects.” Our latest World Economic Outlook forecasts that growth will slow from 3.4 percent last year to 2.8 percent this year. Growth is then expected to accelerate to 3 percent next year. Risks to the outlook are heavily skewed to the downside, with heightened chances of a hard landing. The Chart of the Week brings together all gross domestic product forecasts in our latest assessment. Add any economy or grouping from the dataset to the chart. Move the slider for historical data or future estimates. VISIT THE INTERACTIVE CHART DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE India’s Burgeoning Digital Infrastructure (Credit: IMF Photo) It cost just a dollar per person to provide a unique digital identity to all Indians, Nandan Nilekani, the founding chairman of the Unique Identification Authority of India, told a panel on digital infrastructure. “Digital public infrastructure does not require deep pockets, it requires deep conviction,” he said. India’s experience creating digital public infrastructure proves that low-cost and scalable digitalization can help build resilience against shocks such as pandemics, spur economic growth and ensure inclusivity. In India, digital identity has enabled 80 million verifications a day and 8.7 billion transactions a month through instant digital payments. There are nearly 300 million users, of whom 50 million are small businesses such as fruit and vegetable vendors. Verification through digital identity has saved at least $27 billion in government welfare schemes and brought down customer acquisition costs to four cents from $6-9 previously, according to Nirmala Sitharaman, India’s finance minister. Digital tools, layered on top of public-funded infrastructure, as in the case of India, has fast paced financial inclusion. “It brings in so many people who are on the margins of society to now participate in economic opportunity,” said Melinda French Gates, the co-chair of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Financial stability is not only about managing inflation, employment rates and spending, it’s about understanding how those factors affect people in different places and in all kinds of circumstances. In this podcast, Filippo Grandi, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, discusses how strategic partnerships between humanitarians and economists will help support the millions of forcefully displaced people in the world and provide a firmer footing for an economic recovery. FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT On Inflation’s Front Line (Credit: IMF/Adobe Stock/ECB) The inflation shock warrants examination to assess whether the European Central Bank and other central banks could have done a better job, says the ECB’s chief economist, Philip R. Lane, in an F&D interview. The ECB is on the front line of the fight against inflation. Policymakers have raised interest rates to 15-year highs to bring euro area inflation, which peaked at more than 10 percent in October, back to the 2 percent target. Inflation is expected to slow this year, but monetary policy will continue to attract scrutiny as the continent’s economic growth slows, consumers continue to struggle with the cost-of-living crisis, and governments seek to finance large debts in a new era of higher interest rates. Lane calls on governments to start rolling back fiscal support to consumers as the energy crisis trigged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine becomes less acute. He discusses the importance of steering inflation expectations back to target, the challenges involved in shrinking the central bank’s balance sheet, and the lessons that can be learned from the monetary moves of the past year. (Credit: IMF/Pete Reynolds) F&D: New Directions for Monetary Policy The latest edition of F&D Magazine focuses on New Directions for Monetary Policy. Authors include Gita Gopinath, Raghuram Rajan, Markus Brunnermeier, Masaaki Shirakawa, Christoffer Koch, Greg Kaplan, Giancarlo Corsetti, Michael Weber, Claudio Borio, and many more. Weekly Roundup ANNUAL MEETINGS Bangkok To Host Meetings in 2026 The Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in October 2026 will take place in Bangkok, Thailand, as decided in a vote by the Boards of Governors of the two institutions. The meetings are usually held for two consecutive years at the IMF and World Bank headquarters in Washington and every third year in one of the institutions’ member countries. The 2023 Annual Meetings will take place in Morocco. MARK YOUR CALENDAR APRIL 25, 11:30 AM ET India's Financial System This event, organized by the Wilson Center’s South Asia Institute in partnership with the IMF, will focus on a new study by Fund staff on India’s financial sector and how it can be used to support growth and reduce vulnerabilities. WATCH HERE Thank you again very much for your interest in the Weekend Read! Be sure to let us know what issues and trends we should have on our radar. Nick Owen Editor IMF Weekend Read nowen@IMF.org

Dear maria, We just published a new blog—please find the full text below.  World Economic Outlook Shows Economies Facing High Uncertainty (Credit: Acton Crawford/Unsplash) By Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi and Chiara Maggi Our latest World Economic Outlook forecasts that growth will slow from 3.4 percent last year to 2.8 percent this year. Growth is then expected to accelerate to 3 percent next year. Risks to the outlook are heavily skewed to the downside, with heightened chances of a hard landing. In a plausible alternative scenario with further financial sector stress, global growth would decelerate to about 2.5 percent in 2023. Looking further ahead, growth is expected to remain around 3 percent over the next five years. This baseline forecast of 3 percent five years ahead for 2028 makes it the lowest medium-term growth projection since 1990, and well below the average of 3.8 percent from the past two decades. The anemic outlook reflects the tight policy stances needed to bring down inflation, the fallout from the recent deterioration in financial conditions, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and growing geoeconomic fragmentation. The Chart of the Week brings together all gross domestic product forecasts in our latest assessment. Add any economy or grouping from the dataset to the chart. Move the slider for historical data or future estimates. View the interactive version here.   Jeff Kearns Managing Editor IMF Blog jkearns@IMF.org   Thank you again for your interest in IMF Blog. Read more of our latest content here. Take good care!