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Almost one month after the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks consider the rising stakes in the struggle for democracy in Europe and beyond, and analyse the challenges of shaping an endgame, Ukraine’s application for EU membership, the nature of the war, including the cyber security threat, the use of disinformation and the role of cryptocurrencies. Others examine how the security crisis is turning into a massive humanitarian crisis, the situation of refugees in Poland and the implications of the war, especially in the security and energy domains, not only in Ukraine and the EU, but also on other regions in the world. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR DEMOCRACY AND ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE Increasing authoritarianism in some countries, such as Russia, coupled with gradual democratic erosion around the world, poses an exceptional threat to a rules-based global order, and consequently to peace and prosperity. The authors consider that the invasion of Ukraine is the most blatant and tragic realization of this threats. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES The war in Ukraine: the challenge of shaping an endgame The author considers that the longer the war continues, the chances increase for escalation to new levels that neither side wants. Therefore, before the situation is completely out of control, there must be a dialogue with Russia that can lead to an end to the war. ZENTRUM LIBERALE MODERNE (CENTER FOR LIBERAL MODERNITY) Zum Stand der russischen Invasion in der Ukraine – Was Deutschland jetzt tun kann und muss The author gives a military expert analysis about Russian war targets, nuclear escalation, Ukrainian defence and why the date of April 1, 2022 is important from a Russian point of view. FRIENDS OF EUROPE The war in Ukraine: a crowd-sourced total global war? The author sees in the world’s response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine the emergence of a new approach to countering authoritarian aggression or even a new approach to war itself. The famous Prussian theorist Carl von Clausewitz specifically said: “War is a mere continuation of policy ‘with the addition of other means’ (mit Einmischung anderer Mitteln).” This article claims the world is responding to Putin with the addition of other means like never before. GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP) The authors outline that in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cyber threat landscape is quickly evolving. Now, Europe, the United States, and like-minded democracies must prepare for persistent “gray zone” conflict in their own cyberspaces. INSTITUTE FOR PEACE SUPPORT AND CONFLICT MANAGEMENT Security Turnaround after Ukraine: Regional and Institutional Implications The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine represents a turning point for European and Austrian security policy. It calls into question previously established paradigms of international security and international crisis and conflict management. Regardless of the actual outcome of the war, this paper assumes a fundamental paradigm shift in international relations. CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW) Three weeks of war: Putin’s tactical dilemmas Three weeks after the start of the war against Ukraine, the Kremlin’s political objectives have not been achieved. Taking into account the resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces persists, the morale of Ukrainian society remaining high, and the very serious sanctions imposed by the international community on Russia, this article considers the prospects for evolution of Russian policy. EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE & EGMONT ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS The Versailles declaration, adopted by EU leaders on 10 and 11 March, acknowledges that Ukraine belongs to the ‘European family’. The Council has already invited the European Commission to submit its opinion in accordance with Article 49 TEU. The author notes that despite this support for – and recognition of – Ukraine’s application, the road to EU membership remains a long one. STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK Beitrittsgesuch der Ukraine setzt EU unter Druck The paper discusses the consequences of Ukraine’s EU membership application. INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS ¿Comprendemos la desinformación?: Rusia y la evolución de las medidas activas. This article explores institutional practise of disinformation and looks in particular at the 'active measures' concept, born in 1963 in the URSS which, taking disinformation as a central element, approaches a broader spectrum of activities. It is argued that these kind of operations, key for external Russian politics during the Cold War, are still alive today. They have only evolved and revived. FRIENDS OF EUROPE Ukraine and the global whole-of-society response: a double-edged sword? In past wars people often felt powerless, reading newspapers or watching on television as events unfolded far away. This article claims we are going through a new era of hyper-empowered citizens and private actors who can have very real influence on events and possibly even shape their outcomes, e.g. by debunking disinformation (for example, in Russia's media), sharing through social media, or hacking as a form of activism. FRIENDS OF EUROPE Putin’s war: driving Ukrainians into hunger - and the rest of the world as well The article reflects on how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is turning a security crisis into a massive health and humanitarian crisis, not only for the 4.5mn Ukrainians displaced by the conflict thus far or the others being shelled into submission in several Ukrainian cities, but also for millions elsewhere in the world. For instance, many of the countries seeing their food insecurity grow by the day are countries in the Middle East and Africa that Putin has been courting of late. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP Mitigating the gendered effects of Ukraine’s refugee crisis Over three million Ukrainians have fled the Russian invasion that began on 24 February. While EU states have granted arrivals real benefits, Kyiv’s rule holding back conscription-age men increases dangers to the families leaving. This article discusses how states should ensure that all refugees get the help they need. FORUM FOR RESEARCH ON EASTERN EUROPE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES (FREE NETWORK) Ukrainian refugees in Poland: current situation and what to expect The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced millions to flee from the war zone. This brief addresses Ukrainian refuge in Poland. It provides an overview of the current situation, discusses the ongoing solutions and potential future challenges, and stresses the key areas for urgent policy intervention. INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Could the Ukraine crisis accelerate a longer-term policy shift away from fossil fuels? The author analyses the impact of the Ukraine crisis. According to this article, the crisis will accelerate a shift to non-fossil-fuel energy sources. CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Cryptocurrency’s role in the Russia-Ukraine crisis Finance typically plays a major role in wars, but the Russia-Ukraine war is the first major conflict with a prominent role for cryptocurrencies. The authors outline the prominence of crypto in this conflict, which could influence global perceptions of the technology, including among governments considering new regulations. FRIENDS OF EUROPE The need and opportunity for Europe’s energy independence The imposed economic sanctions against Russia will be effective to a certain extent. The article claims that it is about time for Europe to come to a bold decision and pare down its dependency on Russian energy to zero. This is an extremely complicated decision, but the author argues that, as always, no geopolitical plan is viable if it is not economically feasible and sustainable, and vice versa. ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE Can the EU do without Russian gas? Today, the European Union still relies on Russia for approximately 45% of its gas needs, with some EU countries – such as Italy – being more vulnerable than others. However, Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine is forcing Brussels to make difficult choices. This article analyses the arguments that affirm the EU can live without Russian gas, and also those saying it cannot. BRUEGEL Can Europe manage if Russian oil and coal are cut off ? According to the authors, a stop to Russian oil and coal supplies would push Europe into a short and painful adjustment period. But if managed well, disruptions would remain temporary. ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE We will need a 'New Deal' to engage with a post-Putin Russia As missiles and artillery shells rain mercilessly on Ukraine, the author suggests that policy analysts should ask themselves whether tougher Western sanctions are hardening rather than softening Russia’s resistance to peace talks. РОССИЙСКИЙ СОВЕТ ПО МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫМ ДЕЛАМ (RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL) Ukrainian Crisis. Who Has the Upper Hand? The author analyses how countries have been impacted by the situation in Ukraine, in particular it weighs the level of losses and gains for each of them. ISTITUTO AFFARI INTERNAZIONALI Russian Energy Exports and the Conflict in Ukraine: What Options for Italy and the EU? Putin’s war on Ukraine has shaken the European Union to its core. This paper considers that implications will be long lasting in numerous domains, but it is in the security and energy dimensions that concrete changes are already becoming evident as the EU fast tracks its strategy for energy diversification. CHATHAM HOUSE Ukraine crisis could trigger cascading risks globally According to the authors, the effects on the wider world from the Ukraine invasion go far beyond the waves of shock and horror being felt from this escalating conflict. LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE (FRS) In this article a strong focus is placed on the strategic implications of the war in Ukraine for the Baltic states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania as well as neighbouring Poland, all of which are NATO's direct borders with Russia. The possibility that these states could be priority targets of a Russian offensive cannot be excluded. PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO The Ukraine war and Turkey as a “Third Pole” in a new international order After Russia launched a large-scale military invasion of Ukraine the international community reacted immediately and decisively against it, imposing a series of costly sanctions. Turkey was among the countries that refused to follow suit, instead attempting to act as a mediator between the warring camps. According to this article, this approach reveals the continuation of certain Turkish foreign policy tendencies, and aims to secure a new international role for Turkey. ISTITUTO PER GLI STUDI DI POLITICA INTERNAZIONALE Iran, Russia and the JCPOA: Is a year of negotiations at risk? The implications of the war in Ukraine go well beyond Europe. In the Middle East, the Iran nuclear talks may suffer from the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. After eleven months, the talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal were challenged by a last-minute Russian demand. This article reflects on how, by connecting the Iran deal with the Ukraine war, the Russian government risked casting a shadow over the negotiations. LA FONDATION POUR LA RECHERCHE STRATÉGIQUE Le pragmatisme de l’Inde face à la guerre en Ukraine The article examines India's posture towards the current situation in Ukraine and its refusal to distance itself from Moscow, which can be observed by its abstention for the third time in a vote at the General Assembly of United Nations on a resolution deploring Russia's aggression against Ukraine. The article discusses Moscow-New Delhi relations and possible consequences these might have for India in the future. BRUEGEL Six reasons why backstopping Russia is an increasingly unattractive option for China According to the authors, China has too much to lose from aligning with Russia over Ukraine. This article sets out six reasons why China should adopt a constructive stance on Ukraine’s future and global stability. ROBERT SCHUMAN Le Partenariat oriental à l'épreuve de la guerre en Ukraine (robert-schuman.eu) On the eve of the EU's fifth enlargement in 2003, the Neighbourhood Policy was launched to "avoid new dividing lines in Europe and to promote stability and prosperity" and to create, in the now famous phrase, a "ring of friends". According to this brief, the Eastern Partnership, which emerged on 7 May 2009, is now being undermined by the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. Just over three weeks since the invasion of Ukraine, think tanks analyse the unprecedented shift in global geopolitics and the positions of various countries; the EU response, including possible and proposed changes in foreign, security or defence policies; the growing humanitarian crisis and activation of the EU’s temporary protection mechanism in the face of the large-scale displacement of civilians; and they assess the implications of the EU’s dependence on Russian gas, the economic and financial sanctions against Russia, and the economic impact of the war, including in relation to agricultural production. EGMONT – ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Putin Is Creating the Multipolar World He (Thought He) Wanted The authors of this article focus on the difficulties for some countries, like China, in having to position themselves after 24 February in a world that was already quite divided. It seems impossible to stay completely aloof, let alone simply align with Russia. With their sanctions reverberating throughout the global economy, the risk of the relationship with China and Russia worsening seems to be increasing. CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) War pushes us to re-define Europe The author argues that the Russia-Ukraine war is an opportunity to rebuild the foundation of a new EU and analyses the roles of NATO, US and other players in ending the conflict. DANSK INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONALE STUDIER/DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Ukraine is closer than you think Despite its turbulent domestic politics, Ukraine rarely featured at the top of the EU’s security agenda in the post-Soviet period. This article looks at how the scale of current Russian military intervention changed that, bringing the war to the EU’s doorstep, and challenging a previously lenient approach to Russia which the EU refused to see as a potential aggressor. CHATHAM HOUSE Devising the strategy to deter Russia and weaken Putin The author suggests various measures which could form part of a coherent strategy to deter Russia from further atrocities, prevent aggression beyond Ukraine, withstand its threats globally, and hold it to account. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP No-Fly Zone in Ukraine: War with Russia by Another Name Some current and former officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, call for Western powers to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine. This article explains what a no-fly zone would entail, where similar zones have been established before and the dangers of that option in Ukraine. PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO Should Ukraine Have Kept Soviet Nuclear Weapons? Following the Soviet Union collapse in 1991, the stockpile of Soviet nuclear weapons left in Ukraine comprised what was then the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal. Ukraine later transferred these to Russia, the authors consider whether this was the right choice. CYPRUS CENTER FOR EUROPEAN AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The current Russo-Ukrainian crisis has brought unprecedented, historic, nodal milestones for the international community, in international relations and global geopolitics. According to this paper, this significantly influences the course of the 21st century political history, by irrevocably altering the international equilibrium and becoming the landmark of a new era in international relations and global politics. CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES The EU grants temporary protection for people fleeing war in Ukraine To respond to the sudden large-scale displacement of people from Ukraine, the 2001 EU Temporary Protection Directive has been activated for the first time. This paper examines the key issues and questions raised, drawing on lessons learned or ‘not to be learned’ from policies adopted by countries such as Turkey and others in South America, that have previously responded to large-scale displacements. The paper argues that the solidarity principle enshrined in the EU Treaties needs to be substantially re-thought and revisited. GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS (DGAP) If Russia uses migration as a weapon, Europeans should respond in kind This policy brief looks into the risk of migrant instrumentalisation (MI) by Russia, which it considers likely especially if Russia moves deep into Western Ukraine. Drawing on an in-depth study, this brief shows how the EU can meet this specific threat. TERRA NOVA My enemy’s doctor is not my enemy The law of war explicitly prohibit attacks on places of care, personnel or patients in armed conflicts. This article considers the precedents in Grozny (Chechnya) and Aleppo (Syria), which have raised the concerns of the WHO and international observers. HERTIE SCHOOL/JACQUES DELORS CENTRE Same shock, different effects EU member states’ exposure to the economic consequences of Putin’s war This brief takes a very first look at potential differences in exposure, focusing on direct trade links, potential costs of energy dependence on Russia and vulnerabilities towards rising energy prices more generally. It shows that the EU member states’ economic vulnerability to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is very unevenly distributed. CIDOB War in Ukraine and the gas crisis force a rethink of EU foreign policy The paper argues that EU member states dependence on Russian supplies make gas a key factor in the crisis provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The crisis will force a major rethink of Europe’s gas security over the next decade including diversifying outside sources of gas, increasing gas exchanges within Europe, and ensuring that gas stocks are much higher. OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES) The EU gas market and policy and the war in Ukraine In the light of the strong dependence of the EU on Russian gas, the commentary examines the risks caused by tensions over the Ukraine-Russia crisis for the EU gas market stability. The assessment of the European Commission's new plan REPowerEU is also included. CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE This article examines the implications for global payment flows of the sanctions on Russia, explaining how SWIFT works. In particular, it notes concern that Beijing sees the Ukraine crisis as its opportunity to gain influence over financial markets. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Why more economic and financial sanctions against Russia are inevitable and energy tops the list Comprehensive financial sanctions against Russia, going well beyond the SWIFT exclusion often thought of as a “final stage,” were implemented swiftly and arguably more drastically than Moscow expected. They have significantly damaged the Russian public sector balance sheet and local financial markets. This post analyses the implications of further sanctions. AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Are Gold Rubles Gold or Rubles? This article reflects on the possibility of the appearance of a new parallel currency to the ruble, due to hyperinflation: gold. With the invasion of Ukraine, sanctions to Russia and firms severing business ties with Russia, its connections to the global economy have been damaged. This happened in 1992 and the author considers it possible it is happening again. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Agricultural Production in Ukraine and Russia: Economic Implications for Europe Both Ukraine and Russia are among the largest producers of agricultural goods in the world today, especially for grains and sunflowers. As the Russian war against Ukraine endangers this agricultural production, the rest of the world can no longer rely on commodities sourced from these countries. This article provides an overview of the economic relevance and the expected effects of these circumstances on prices and on European production and outlines their implications for the agricultural goals of the European Green Deal. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES Germany and the Ukraine crisis: end of the age of illusions There seems to be no country in Europe where the Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a greater systemic upheaval than in Germany, writes the author. The invasion roused Germany from the illusions that have guided its dealings with Russia since the 1970s – the “Ostpolitik” (eastern) policy. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG This article analyses the new German government’s historic break with long-established foreign and security policy tenets and what it signifies for German foreign policy. Invoking the far-reaching German word of “Zeitenwende” (turning point), Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced the unexpected and unprecedented increase in defence spending in his seminal speech at the German Bundestag. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG Mögliche wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen des Ukrainekriegs auf Deutschland Possible economic impact of the Ukraine war on Germany The article discusses possible consequences of the war on Ukraine for the German economy. The author goes into detail about existing economic interdependencies between Russia and Germany and how they might be affected by the war and further sanctions. CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES (OSW) Germany and the trade conflict between Lithuania & China The Chinese government’s trade boycott of Lithuania risks causing economic losses for Germany, which is particularly exposed to the effects of the Lithuanian-Chinese dispute, and weakening the cohesion of the EU’s common market. This article comments on the likely reaction by Berlin given its huge dependence on the Chinese market and the differences of opinion within the government on what direction its Beijing policy should take. ELINKEINOELÄMÄN TUTKIMUSLAITOS (RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE FINNISH ECONOMY) The Significance of Russia for Finnish Companies This policy brief analyses the importance of Russia on the Finnish economy. The authors scrutinize both the trade relations and the presence of Finnish firms in Russia and that of Russian firms in Finland. CENTRE FOR EUROPEAN POLICY STUDIES Why the Ukraine crisis should push the UK and EU into a tighter embrace on security policy According to this policy brief, one of the costs of Brexit is the weakened ability of both the UK and the EU to shape a strong joint response to Russia’s threats to pan-European security. In the standoff over Ukraine, the need for close cross-Channel cooperation is particularly acute for any effective sanctions package negotiated with the US. OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES) Caution and anticipation: Turkey and the Russo-Ukrainian war The commentary analyses Turkey’s attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine war, which is essentially in line with NATO’s position on the conflict, but also void of any actions or rhetoric which would clearly strike at Russia’s interests. The tangible threat that the war in Ukraine poses to Turkey’s internal stability is also examined. KONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG Der Russische Angriffskrieg gegen die Ukraine – Reaktionen auf dem Westbalkan The Russian War of Aggression against Ukraine – Reactions in the Western Balkans All the countries of the Western Balkans voted in favour of the resolution in UN Resolution General Assembly on 2 March condemning Russia's actions. This report considers the varying positions in the Western Balkans region, which has complicated historical, political, economic and social relations with Russia, but also with Ukraine. PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE OSLO Will Taiwan Be the Next Ukraine? The authors analyse similarities and differences of Ukraine’s and Taiwan’s positions in the world picture. INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY AND DEVELOPMENT POLICY How Is India’s Silent Diplomacy Navigating the Russia-Ukraine War? The author assesses how New Delhi has sought to navigate between expressing veiled concern for the Russian invasion and maintaining an important strategic and security relationship. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES The Russian invasion of Ukraine: legal aspects The legal channels will not stop the advance of the Russian army, but they are important in terms of the message they send to Russia and the whole world. Israel, which has seemed to lean to sitting on the fence, must join the international efforts against Russia, Otherwise it is liable to find itself on the wrong side of history, claims this article. 9.3.2022 Providing their first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, think tanks report on the united response of the Western bloc and the unfolding humanitarian crisis; assess the policy and security implications for the EU and the impact for the Middle East, North Africa, Serbia, and India; and analyse the strategic goals of Moscow, the involvement of Belarus and the impact of economic sanctions. CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS) This issue collects first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP War in Europe: responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine This paper considers how Russia’s assault on Ukraine threatens to become the largest European conflict in decades. A vigorous but judicious Western and global response is critical to limit the damage. UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Some preliminary thoughts on the policy implications of the Russian aggression Thursday 24 February 2022 is, and will be understood as, a watershed in European and global modern history. This article considers various implications of the full-scale military attack on and aggression against a neighbouring state of almost 45 million inhabitants by the world’s leading nuclear weapon power – and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Russia's “soft annexation” of Belarus during its invasion of Ukraine This article examines how Russia has for all intents and purposes also taken control of Belarus militarily, as a side-line to its unprecedented military build-up on the land borders of Ukraine and its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES The Ukraine crisis: an interim analysis According to this analysis, it is already clear that with the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has upset the world order that has existed since the Second World War. The Western bloc has already begun to realign and is presenting a unified and forceful stance vis-à-vis Moscow. Israel can no longer avoid taking a clear stand and siding fully with the countries opposing Russia. BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Oriente Medio y el Norte de África ante la guerra en Ucrania: vasos comunicantes Middle East and North Africa is, after Europe, the region that will feel the impact of the war in Ukraine most acutely, mainly in terms of energy and grain prices. The article analyses other, deeper, connections such as the diplomatic battle, the negotiation over Iran's nuclear programme and its impact on conflict dynamics across the region. ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES The Ukraine War and the Risk of a New Foreign Fighters Wave The author of this article reports on some concerns following Zelensky's plea for foreigners to join the fight against Russia and his promise to give them arms on their arrival. The article recalls the war in Donbas and the great influx of foreign fighters and the risk that this happens again. CENTAR ZA EVROPSKE POLITIKE (EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE) Ukraine and Russia are at war. What does that mean for the future of EU-Serbia relations? The authors reflect on how the current situation in Ukraine will effect Serbian politics with regard to the EU, considering their close ties to Russia. ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES Putin’s invasion of Ukraine: A wake-up call also for the MENA region? This brief approaches the different reactions of the MENA countries to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, reporting a general caution from these countries to condemn Russia's actions except from Foreign Minister Lapid. The author gives a brief overview of the impact of the war in the MENA region. FRIENDS OF EUROPE Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: getting the right Western strategy in place This article states that it is time to move beyond disbelief and develop a coherent Western strategy to face Russia's aggression. It considers whether this will be the opportunity to create more integrated European units with neighbours like France, the Benelux, Poland and Italy, and even with the post-Brexit UK. INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS (IEEE) Efectos de la guerra de Ucrania en las Repúblicas Bálticas Before the Ukrainian war, the threat of Russia was mainly understood as a matter of political or economic dimensions in the three Baltic republics. For the author, from now on, this threat is more related to an essential military dimension. This article highlights the increasing reinforcement of this military dimension in the Baltic republics and Scandinavia, which is done in order to guarantee a solid defence from the allies of the region. REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO Ucrania en busca de refugio digital Government stability and international order are in danger in Ukraine, but also the protection of its people and its national security. The control of the technological infrastructure plays an essential role in this, according to the author. This is why it is important to analyse Ukraine's ability to respond to a possible hostage of its digital infrastructure by Russia, and the optimal scenarios in which Ukraine could count on to protect its data and especially in collaboration with other countries. CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) "Russian invasion of Ukraine. Deciphering where India stands" This article considers New Delhi's position vis-à-vis the war and India’s pro-Russian tilt which is a function of its "time tested" friendship with Moscow as well as of geopolitical necessity. However, it is argued that India has a great scope in resolving the impasse in order to avoid being seen as guilty of complicity. CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) War in Europe. Ukraine fights for the West Contrary to Kremlin’s expectations, the West is united in its response to the war in Ukraine. The paper argues that this ability to take tough measures towards Moscow is crucial since at stake is nothing less than the very survival of Ukraine and the freedom of the entire Central and Eastern Europe. Possible scenarios for Ukraine and global strategic consequences are also outlined. STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK NATO-Russia tensions: Putin orders invasion of Ukraine This paper examines Moscow’s strategic goals with the invasion of Ukraine and the need to avoid further escalation, taking into account the security agreements between Russia and NATO and the current European security order. STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK Moskau bedroht die Balance im hohen Norden Russia’s attack on Ukraine is not based on legitimate security interests but a rejection of the European security order. According to the authors Russia’s demand for more consideration for its own security interest have achieved the exact opposite. Russia's pressure has the paradoxical effect of bringing Finland and Sweden closer to NATO. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG SWIFT exclusion is fine, sanctioning the Russian Central Bank is better The article analyses the economic sanctions posed on Russia by the EU. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG This article gives an overview of the implications the economic sanctions on Russia have for the European and Russian economies. INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Guerre en Ukraine : leçon de grammaire stratégique This paper examines Russia’s objectives in launching a high-intensity war against Ukraine, which are clearly not limited to Donbass. Nor are they aimed at the acquisition of new territories. In all likelihood, it concludes that this is a large-scale campaign for regime change aimed at installing a power in Kiev that will guarantee it obedience and security. INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Le choc de la réalité : La coalition feu tricolore dans la crise russo-ukrainienne This analysis considers that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis puts to the test the cohesion of the new traffic light coalition, the authority of Chancellor Scholz and the ambition to adapt the post-Merkel German foreign policy. CLINGENDAEL - THE NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Phoenix or Icarus? CRU policy brief European strategic autonomy in light of Ukraine With all eyes on the next Russian move in Ukraine, the notion of European strategic autonomy is experiencing a revival. This paper considers the concept, concluding that broad use of the term ‘EU strategic autonomy’, as is in vogue, risks giving populism and nationalism an unnecessary impulse. CLINGENDAEL - THE NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Tsar-struck : how Vladimir Putin uses the history of the Russian Empire On February 24, Vladimir Putin shocked the world by starting a war in Ukraine. In the run-up to the Russian invasion, Putin delivered far-reaching speeches and wrote an article to legitimise his actions – packed with intense rhetoric on imperial as well as Soviet history. This article considers how Putin has consistently instrumentalised history to achieve his policy goals since the day he became president. THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Real and imagined challenges to strategic stability Strategic stability has come under pressure from a shifting military and political environment: the number of major strategic actors has increased; missile defence has evolved; and the battlefield has expanded. Nuclear arsenals are being increased and diversified. Yet, the author argues that warnings that we have entered into a new arms race should be viewed with caution and, contrary to what other analysts have suggested, technological advancements are not fundamentally undermining strategic stability. CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changes everything Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have profound consequences for the stability of the region and for the future of European security, not to mention the immense human suffering. In this article, Carnegie Europe’s scholars give their assessment about how the military attack will fundamentally change the post-Cold War era. DGAP - GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS If Russia uses migration as a weapon, Europeans should respond in kind Around 442,000 people have so far fled Ukraine – not just to the EU, but also to neighbors like Moldova. This is a humanitarian issue, and should not be conflated with “migrant instrumentalization” (MI), whereby a state pushes people across a border to coerce the EU to change position. Yet Russia is likely to employ MI in this way, especially if it moves deep into Western Ukraine. Drawing on an in-depth study, this policy brief shows how the EU can meet this specific threat. LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCE The long shadow of the Soviet Union: demystifying Putin's rhetoric towards Ukraine This paper provides a contextualised analysis of the Kremlin’s rhetoric regarding Ukraine since 2014. Examining the content and accuracy of Russian complaints about NATO enlargement, the article examines other motivations Putin may have for considering an attack on Ukraine, in particular 'nationalist irredentism'. OŚRODEK STUDIÓW WSCHODNICH (CENTRE FOR EASTERN STUDIES) Ukraine: the first day of the Russian invasion The author of this analysis offers a broad picture of the different aspects of the just-started war and its consequences. There is also allusion to the information situation (how events are being reported in Ukraine) and the economic consequences. The West strikes a blow at the Russian economy This article comments on the West’s sanctions packages against Russia and the impact on the Russian financial system. RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL The end of diplomacy? Seven Glimpses of the New Normal The author outlines events leading up to the current situation in Ukraine. CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES The Kremlin playbook 3: keeping the faith This study aims to expose a new front of Russian malign influence in Europe and Eurasia: the instrumentalization of values, traditions, and religious beliefs to exploit or sow divisions among Western societies. INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS The February 2022 edition of the IRMO Brief, authored by Zoran Meter, deals with the situation in Belarus after the presidential election in 2020 to present day. The author also analyses how Belarusian support to Russia will facilitate Russian ambitions in Ukraine.
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