AEI's Rundown:US-Ukraine Talks Continue; Venezuela Pressure Mounts

 

The Rundown News and analysis from AEI's Foreign and Defense Policy team.

Scholar Insight

On Saturday, President Trump said on social media that Venezuelan airspace should be considered closed, amid a monthslong US force buildup in the Caribbean aimed at pressuring Nicolás Maduro. AEI’s Hal Brands notes:

“President Trump is currently trying to bring the coercive campaign against Maduro to a crescendo, in hopes of getting him to leave power without a fight. The challenge is that Maduro can’t really be confident of his future security, wealth, and freedom if he leaves Venezuela. If he doesn’t leave

peacefully, Trump will face a tough decision—whether to lose credibility by backing down or risk fracturing his political coalition with a war that he hasn’t really explained to the American people.”   Will the president order strikes on Venezuela? How might Congress react if Trump does so without an authorization for the use of force?   Follow us on X @AEIfdp to keep up with our latest work. Have a great week, AEI's Foreign and Defense Policy team

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Critical Threats @criticalthreats

The current Russian force composition is not optimized to achieve or exploit a collapse of Ukrainian defenses. The war in Ukraine has become largely positional, and Russian forces writ large are sufficiently degraded such that they cannot currently conduct maneuver warfare at the scale necessary for rapid, operational-level advances that restore maneuver to the battlefield.

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Defense

In the News Developments to keep your eye on.

House Armed Services Committee leaders pledged to investigate a US strike on a Caribbean drug-trafficking vessel after reports emerged that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth directed troops to kill all those aboard.

Post The Consequences of a Politicized Military Kori Schake | AEIdeas   Six Democratic politicians, all veterans of service to the country, recorded videos reminding service members of their duty to disobey illegal orders. Kori Schake notes that with Republicans threatening retaliation—President Trump claimed their actions were seditious and “punishable by death”—the military has yet again been caught in the middle of a political fight. None of this political maneuvering helps the military. Service members do not need reminders of their constitutional obligations. Moreover, America’s military system is predicated on the assumption that orders given are legal; refusal to obey an order is no small thing. Politicians relying on the military to adjudicate policy is an abdication of the civilian politicians’ superior role in setting that policy, in both the executive and legislative branches.

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Op-Ed The Trump Administration Must Fight for American Tank Production John G. Ferrari | The National Interest   The Joint Systems Manufacturing Center in Lima, Ohio, is now the nation’s last facility capable of building M1 Abrams tanks. John G. Ferrari notes that the president’s fiscal year 2026 budget, which requests only 30 tanks, would gut the workforce and hollow out America’s defense industrial base. The Army wants to keep Lima operational so it remains fit to produce the next-generation M1E3 tank in development. Keeping the plant online aligns with President Trump’s manufacturing agenda, preserves jobs, and keeps the production line humming. Moreover, maintaining production capacity facilitates America’s ability to respond to a crisis without delay, surge manufacturing when deterrence fails, and maintain critical workforce skills. When war comes, producing weapons at scale will, as always, remain key to victory.

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Podcast What Is It: Insubordination or Sedition? John Yoo Explains. Danielle Pletka and Marc A. Thiessen | What the Hell Is Going On?   After six congressional Democrats posted videos reminding service members of their duty to disobey illegal military orders, chaos and confusion ensued. Danielle Pletka and Marc A. Thiessen welcome Professor John Yoo, Emanuel S. Heller Professor of Law at the University of California, Berkeley, to discuss the constitutional framework that distinguishes lawful military action, legislative and executive powers, crime, and war. Today, rhetoric can often obscure the dividing line between legal and illegal orders. Nonetheless, not everything that harms society constitutes sedition or justifies that use of the military.

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US Foreign Policy

In the News Developments to keep your eye on.

A Ukrainian delegation met with US policymakers in Florida on Sunday to discuss plans to end the war in Ukraine.

Op-Ed A Ukraine Plan That Would Actually Work Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion   President Donald Trump’s peace ploy in Ukraine will likely fail. Hal Brands argues that to achieve real peace, policymakers must overcome their own hesitations face reality. Russia’s position is weaker than it seems: It has lost as many as 1,000 killed and wounded per day this year, and Vladimir Putin will struggle to mount another sustained offensive in 2026 without another unpopular mobilization. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy is flailing. The key to a decent settlement is to accelerate the crisis of Putin’s war effort while delaying the crisis of Ukraine’s. To do so, the US and EU should tighten energy sanctions, channel frozen Russian assets to Kyiv, and decisively end Russian energy imports.

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Op-Ed The US Can Outcompete China in Africa Liam Karr and Yale Ford | RealClearWorld   A Chinese mining subsidiary waste site spilled toxic chemicals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Liam Karr and Yale Ford explain that the accident is emblematic of China’s extractive role in Africa and globally, which leads to unmitigated environmental hazards and endangers local communities. US officials and business leaders pursuing President Donald Trump’s “trade, not aid” Africa policy should highlight that the US can offer better alternatives that protect civilians and benefit both nations. One pathway to doing so is through the US-backed Regional Economic Integration Framework in the DRC and Rwanda, which could see billions of dollars of US regional investment in the coming years. Responsible investment through expanded partnerships would improve work standards, create jobs, and transfer skills, leading to mutually beneficial growth.

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