International Monetary Fund :special edition of the Weekend Read

 

Dear MARIA, welcome to a special edition of the Weekend Read In today's edition, we highlight: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on the outlook for the global economy How rising geopolitical risks weigh on asset prices How to build public support for energy subsidy and pension reforms Migration and refugee policies steer people, and economies, in new directions F&D magazine: bonds and yields New IMF Data Portal Upcoming events, and more FULL SCHEDULE (Credit: IMF Photo/Melissa Lyttle) IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on the Outlook for the Global Economy The IMF’s new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not a global recession, said IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on Thursday, noting that the resilience of countries is being tested by the reboot of the global trading system. “Financial market volatility is up. And trade policy uncertainty is literally off the charts,” she said at her “Curtain-Raiser” speech ahead of next week’s IMF-World Bank 2025 Spring Meetings. “This is a reminder that we live in a world of sudden and sweeping shifts. And it is a call to respond wisely. A better balanced, more resilient world economy is within reach. We must act to secure it.” Georgieva outlined three priorities that countries should undertake to maintain resilience: first, all countries must redouble efforts to put their own houses in order as there is no room for delay in reforms to enhance economic and financial stability and improve growth potential, she noted; second, countries should renew their focus on internal and external macroeconomic imbalances; and third and most pressing, ensuring that there can be cooperation in a multi-polar world. “We need a more resilient global economy, not a drift to division,” said Georgieva. “All countries, large and small alike, can and should play their part to strengthen the global economy in an era of more frequent and severe shocks.” Read the Speech (Credit: kentoh/iStock by Getty Images) How Rising Geopolitical Risks Weigh on Asset Prices  Shocks such as wars, diplomatic tensions, or terrorism can disrupt cross-border trade and investment. This can hurt asset prices, affect financial institutions, and curtail lending to the private sector, weighing on economic activity and posing a threat to financial stability. Such risks are challenging for investors to price due to their unique nature, rare occurrence, and uncertain duration and scope. This can lead to sharp market reactions when geopolitical shocks materialize, write the IMF’s Salih Fendoglu, Mahvash S. Qureshi, and Felix Suntheim in a new blog. As shown in a chapter of the latest Global Financial Stability Report, stock prices tend to decline significantly during major geopolitical risk events, as measured by more frequent news stories mentioning adverse geopolitical developments and associated risks, say the authors. The average monthly drop is about 1 percentage point across countries, though it’s a much larger 2.5 percentage points in emerging market economies. Of the different types of major geopolitical risk events, international military conflicts hit emerging market stocks the hardest, likely because of more severe economic disruptions compared with other events. In these cases, the average monthly drop in stock returns is a significant 5 percentage points, twice as much as for all other types of events. Heightened geopolitical risks may also affect the public sector as economic growth slows and governments spend more, the authors note. This blog is based on Chapter 2 of the April 2025 Global Financial Stability Report, “Geopolitical Risks: Implications for Asset Prices and Financial Stability.” Read the Blog (Credit: Diy13/iStock by Getty Images) How to Build Public Support for Energy Subsidy and Pension Reforms  Many countries struggle with low economic growth and high debt and will need bold fiscal actions to restore their finances. Two significant areas for potential savings are energy subsidies and pension systems. However, reforms in both areas can be unpopular with the public, write the IMF’s Era Dabla-Norris, Davide Furceri, and Mauricio Soto in a new blog. Public support is crucial for the success of these reforms, and governments can leverage various strategies to enhance this support. Effective reform involves well-designed changes that are introduced at the right time to gain more public support. Changes that happen gradually and during good economic times are usually viewed more favorably. Policies that focus on redistributing resources to those most affected, building trust in institutions, and communicating effectively can lessen public resistance to reforms, and the money saved from these reforms can be used to support popular social programs and infrastructure projects that people can see and appreciate, say the authors. Making significant changes to energy subsidies and pension systems is challenging. Fuel price increases are always unpopular. And changes to social security systems can cause worries about contributing more money or having to work longer before retiring, the authors note. To successfully implement these reforms, it is essential to improve sentiment among key stakeholders in society. Fund research shows that public support is the most important indicators of successful pension reforms, especially when families, civil society organizations, labor unions, and opposition groups back the changes.  This blog is based on Chapter 2 of the April 2025 Fiscal Monitor, “Public Sentiment Matters: The Essence of Successful Energy Subsidies and Pension Reforms.” Read the Blog (Credit: Sebastian Gora/iStock by Getty Images) Migration and Refugee Policies Steer People, and Economies, in New Directions  Throughout history, people have moved—often to other countries—in search of greater opportunity or to seek refuge from conflicts or natural disasters. Recent policy changes, driven by skepticism towards globalization and economic challenges, have created barriers to legal migration. And in turn, tightening of migration and refugee policies in destination countries have economic ripple effects elsewhere, according to a new Chart of the Week blog by the IMF’s Paula Beltran Saavedra, Nicolas Fernandez-Arias, Samuel Mann, and Carolina Osorio-Buitron, based on a chapter in the April 2025 World Economic Outlook. Spillovers from destination substitution—when stricter policies in the intended destination divert people to other places or leave them stranded in transit—can be significant. The authors cite the example of a set of economies tightening policies to deter 20 percent of migrant and refugee inflows. In turn, they write, “the destination economies receiving these diverted flows experience modest gains in economic output of 0.2 percent, on average, over the same horizon, with more pronounced effects in advanced economies.” Additional inflows of new arrivals can boost economic output and labor productivity, the authors write, but they can also create short-term challenges by straining local services and infrastructure. Such costs are likely steeper when countries have more challenges integrating newcomers—as is often the case in emerging market and developing economies that receive a greater proportion of refugees. Read the Blog (Credit: iStock/MicroStockHub) F&D Magazine: Bonds and Yields For centuries, governments have turned to investors to fund their activities. They mostly do this by issuing bonds. Today the global market in sovereign debt is worth about $100 trillion—almost as large as the world economy itself. But what are government bonds? What determines how much investors will pay for them? And what can bond “yield curves” tell us about an economy? In F&D’s latest Back to Basics, IMF economists S. Ali Abbas and Eriko Togo explain bond principal, coupons, premiums, prices above and below par, upward and downward sloping yield curves, and other bafflingly technical terms. “A yield curve in a well-functioning government bond market not only tells us something about the economy’s outlook, but is also a benchmark for pricing other financial assets, such as long-term bank loans, corporate bonds, and mortgages,” they say. “It facilitates more efficient allocation of resources and thus supports long-term economic growth.” Read the Article New IMF Data Portal Launched The IMF’s Statistics Department has launched the new IMF Data Portal, replacing the legacy system on data.imf.org while maintaining access to IMF produced datasets. The new portal is the new centralized platform for all IMF-disseminated datasets, offering a modern, seamless experience for researchers, policymakers, and data enthusiasts. What you need to know: The IMF Data Portal is a one-stop-shop for Fund datasets including WEO, Fiscal Monitor, and CPI. Updated API: Seamlessly integrate IMF data into your applications with the latest API model. If you have links or favorites connected to the old data portal, update them to point to the data in the new IMF Data portal. The retiring data repository will remain accessible at http://legacydata.imf.org until May 31, 2025.  International Financial Statistics (IFS) will no longer be packaged as a single dataset; access to the data in IFS will be through existing datasets that publish those statistics. Learn more about how to find IFS data in the IFS help article.   Some dataset names have changed. Find a list of datasets with name changes here.   Questions? Contact DataHelp@imf.org or visit the Help page. Visit the Portal UPCOMING EVENTS MONDAY, APRIL 21 11:30 AM - 2:30 PM ET IMF-IOSCO Conference 4:00 PM - 4:55 PM ET Analytical Corners 4:00 - 4:25 PM | Debt at Risk 4:30 - 4:55 PM | Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in a High-Interest Rate World TUESDAY, APRIL 22 9:00 AM - 9:45 AM ET IMF Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook 10:15 AM - 11:00 AM ET IMF Press Briefing: Global Financial Stability Report 11:30 AM - 12:00 PM ET G24 Press Briefing 2:00 PM - 2:55 PM ET Analytical Corners 2:00 - 2:25 PM | The Role of the IMF Arrangements in Restoring Access to International Capital Markets 2:30 - 2:55 PM | The Rise of the Silver Economy 4:00 PM - 4:45 PM ET Capacity Development Talk: Active Collaborations Yield Successful Fiscal Reforms in Sri Lanka 4:30 PM - 6:30 PM ET Bretton Woods Committee TODAY'S MEDIA PARTNERS At the Financial Times we’re dedicated to reporting the truth, even when that comes with risk. Our journalists overcome many challenges to bring our readers unbiased reporting with the utmost integrity. Read the FT for bold insight that helps you stay steps ahead.    VIRTUAL NEWSSTAND Read a selection of Spring Meetings related news from the world's leading media outlets. What do you think of the Annual Meetings and our newsletter coverage so far? Share your thoughts and feedback directly by clicking here. Your comments will help inform our agenda and coverage moving forward. Sincerely, IMF 2025 Spring Meetings Team

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