USDA,FOREIGN AGRICULTURAL SERVICE, update

 

The following GAIN reports were released on April 22, 2024. _______   Bangladesh: Bangladesh Modifies SRO for Bulk Feed Ingredients On April 4, 2024, the Government of Bangladesh issued a Statutory Regulatory Order (SRO) allowing the bulk import of animal feed ingredients without labels; fixing an issue that was causing tariffs to be applied to shipments of feed ingredients when bulk containers did not have labels in them.   Bulgaria: Comprehensive Trade Data Shows Bulgaria as Growing Market for US Agriculture  In 2023, U.S. agricultural exports to Bulgaria surpassed the $100 million mark for the first time. The growth was due to a substantial increase in U.S. exports of beef, tree and ground nuts, food preparations, whiskies, animal feed, and wood. The U.S. Census Bureau’s bulk, intermediate, and consumer oriented (BICO) export data tracks U.S. food and agriculture trade shipped directly to Bulgaria. However, it does not measure the substantial levels of U.S. agricultural trade to Bulgaria routed through Western European ports of entry. According to BICO, U.S. suppliers exported $41.5 million of U.S. food, beverages, and agriculture to Bulgaria in 2023, a growth of 20 percent compared to 2022. However, when including indirect shipments, the total number rises above $100 million.   Israel: Israel Notifies WTO of Proposed Import Standard Regulations Related to the European Union Since March 25, 2024, the Government of Israel has notified the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) several times on regulatory proposals related to European Standards. On April 8, 2024, Israel’s WTO/TBT notification G/TBT/N/ISR/1329/Rev. 1 was updated to allow for a period of public comment until May 21, 2024, and G/TBT/N/ISR/1332/Rev.1 was updated to allow for public comment until May 24, 2024. Both measures have been approved by the Israeli Parliament in the first reading (with more readings to come) and are linked to standard regulations related to the adoption of European Union regulations.   Netherlands: Food Processing Ingredients Annual The turnover of the Dutch food processing industry in 2021 (most recent data available) was valued at $99 billion. There are almost 8,500 food processing companies active in the Netherlands and together they account for over 150,000 jobs. The industry is largely depends on imported (unprocessed) ingredients. The majority of its finished goods, however, are sold in foreign markets. The food processing report also describes the quick increase of important costs for the food industry and that the effects of these cost increases are affecting consumer prices for foodstuffs. The report also provides a road map and overview of import requirements and standards for U.S. exporters that wish to enter the Dutch market, as well as a summary of the competitive situation U.S. suppliers face in the Dutch food processing sector. The following GAIN reports were released on April 18, 2024. _______   Brazil: Sugar Annual Brazil’s sugarcane fields performed exceptionally well in the marketing year (MY) April 2023 to March 2024, producing a record of 705 million metric tons (MMT). The high production was a result of optimal weather conditions, investments in sugarcane field renovation, and yield improvement. However, the harvest in MY 2024/25 is not expected to follow the same upward trend, as unusual dry weather has disfavored sugarcane cultivation in the initial months of plantation. Post forecasts an 8.5 percent decrease in sugarcane production in MY 2024/25 at 645 MMT. Despite the lower production, Post forecasts sustained sugar and ethanol production due to remaining sugarcane that was not crushed in MY2023/24.   Cote d'Ivoire: Grain and Feed Annual In MY 2024/25, milled rice production is projected to reach 1.2 million metric tons (MMT), reflecting a five percent increase from MY 2023/24. Post estimates milled rice production for MY 2023/24 at 1.14 MMT, a three percent increase compared to the MY 2022/23 estimate of 1.1 MMT. Stock levels are anticipated to be sufficient to address any short-term supply disruptions. Corn production for MY 2024/25 is expected to remain stable at 1.2 MMT, continuing the trend observed since MY 2022/23. Post forecasts national corn consumption for MY 2024/25 to be 1.17 MMT, with ending stocks expected to be 77,000 MT.   Denmark: The 2024 Food Expo in Denmark  The Food Expo trade show is one of the leading trade events in the Nordic region and the only show in Denmark focusing on food products and (alcoholic) beverages. The 2024 edition took place on March 17 – 19, 2024 and was visited by an estimated 23,000 visitors, including sommeliers, chefs, restaurant and bar owners, and students from hotel management schools. Over a third of the estimated 500 exhibitors showcased non-food products, the remaining focusing on gastronomy, organic and sustainably produced products, alcoholic beverages, food retail, and HRI foodservice.   Colombia: Sugar Annual In marketing year (MY) 2024/2025, Colombia's sugar production is forecast to remain unchanged from the previous MY at 2.25 million metric tons (MMT) owing in part to the onset of the El Niño phenomenon and its dry weather conditions in the second half of 2023. The Southern Oscillation has had a positive impact on sugarcane yields. Yet, the expectation of a new La Niña phenomenon with heavy precipitation expected in the second half of 2024 will not greatly impact yields. Considered among the most productive sugarcane sectors, Colombia’s sugar production has been underperforming in recent years because of La Niña, during which in MY 2023/2024, heavy rainfall lowered yields. Colombia’s economy is projected to accelerate slightly in 2024 and 2025 with a projected fall in the inflation rate, which may support modest improvements in household sugar consumption in the outyear.   Ecuador: Sugar Annual Ecuador's sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to recover to 530,000 metric tons (MT), the same as the MY 2022/23 estimate, due to a rebound in harvested area after a difficult El Nino weather cycle during the second half of 2023. Domestic consumption is forecast to remain stable with gradual increases expected in the coming years. Ethanol production is not expected to increase in the near to mid-term but an official increase in the ethanol blend rate to 10 percent across Ecuador would increase demand for imported ethanol.   Honduras: Sugar Annual Sugar production and exports are projected slightly up in marketing year (MY) 2025 (October 2024 to September 2025) because of the increase in productivity yields, harvested area, and additional investments made in the sugar sector and increased exports. In MY 2023/24 there has been an increase in productivity in crop areas mainly due to modernization, better and more efficient irrigation systems, new technologies that allow precision agriculture, and the recovery areas affected by the changing climate. MY 2024/25 revised estimates show show an increase of 4.38 percent for sugar production and 7.87 percent in sugar exports. Recovery efforts are expected to continue all of Marketing Year (MY) 2025, however the sugar industry is already reaching production levels like those reached in MY 2023. Therefore MY 2025 forecast signal a rebound to 5.28 MT of sugarcane harvested, 548,000 MT of sugarcane produced, and 198.800 MT of sugar exported.   Malaysia: Food Processing Ingredients Annual The Malaysian food and beverage manufacturing industry is a significant sector in Malaysia’s economic expansion for both the domestic and export market. This sector includes several multinational corporation facilities as well as a range of local company operations. The main products manufactured include beverages, canned seafood, canned fruits, canned vegetables, confectionary, dairy products, noodles, and bakery products.   Nicaragua: Sugar Annual FAS/Managua anticipates a drop in sugarcane production in marketing year 2024/25, as increased precipitation, which could be exacerbated by a La Niña weather cycle in the second half of 2024, brings agricultural and industrial yields closer to historical levels. Nicaragua produced a record sugarcane crop in marketing year 2023/24 in spite of hotter and drier conditions in the prevailing El Niño weather cycle, which contributed to below average precipitation across much of the country. Extensive irrigation, optimal conditions for fertilization, and increased solar hours drove higher than average agronomic yields, even as untimely precipitation late in the cycle more than offset anticipated industrial yield gains.   Nigeria: Sugar Annual FAS-Lagos forecasts a 6 percent decrease in raw sugar imports in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 due to the scarcity of foreign exchange and the projected decrease in consumption. Domestic cane production is expected to increase by about a 7 percent in MY 2024/25 to 80,000 metric tons (MT). This is due to maturing investments in production. Meanwhile, increased demand for refined sugar across West Africa and other Sub-Saharan African countries is expected to lead to a 6 percent increase in refined sugar exports in MY 2024/25.   Philippines: Sugar Annual FAS Manila forecasts marketing year (MY) 2025 raw sugar production of 1.85 million metric tons (MT). With high prices, more farmers have planted sugarcane, but some farms with no irrigation are suffering from the ongoing El Niño, which stunted sugarcane growth and could result in lower yields in MY 2025. Post sees no raw sugar importation and maintains MY 2025 exports at zero. Current sugar stocks are still high. Post expects the Philippines to fulfill its 2024 U.S. WTO tariff rate quota (TRQ) allocation of 25,300 metric tons raw value (MTRV). To date, however, no Sugar Order has been issued on sugar exports for this marketing year.   South Africa: Sugar Annual Post expects sugar cane production in MY 2024/25 to show modest growth on carry-over cane and slight increase in harvested area. Sugar production is forecast to improve on slight increase in cane deliveries. The sugar industry effected notional price hikes of white and brown sugar which translated to increases in retail prices of sugar. Notional prices have remained below the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over a Phase 1 of the South African sugar master plan, which was concluded in March 2023. It is expected that price increases will have a slight effect on domestic consumption of sugar. On March 15, 2024, the South African Revenue Service adjusted the custom duty on sugar from 0.00c/kg to 140.91c/kg. Therefore, all imports of sugar below the Dollar-Based Reference Price (DBRP) into South Africa will attract a duty. Post expects South Africa will fully utilize its allocated U.S. tariff rate quota in MYs 2023/24 and 2024/25.   Spain: Spain Seafood Report 2024 Spain is one of the world’s largest markets for fish and seafood. In 2023, Spain was the fourth largest importer of fish and seafood in the world after the United States, China, and Japan. It not only has the largest fish processing industry in Europe, but also has a high per capita consumption and a high per capita expenditure on fish and seafood products. However, Spanish commercial fishing and aquaculture are insufficient to meet domestic demand for fish and seafood production and imports remain a key element in meeting that deficit. As such, Spain continues to create opportunities for U.S. fish and seafood. This report provides guidance to U.S. companies interested in exporting seafood products to Spain and includes an overview of the country's sector, market structure, and export requirements.   Uruguay: Grain and Feed Annual Uruguayan wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is forecast at 1.3 million tons, 260,000 tons lower than the previous crop season which saw record high yields. Wheat exports are projected down at 800,000 tons, 29 percent lower than the previous year. Corn production in MY 2024/2025 is forecast at 1 million tons, down 35 percent from the previous year as planted area and yields are both expected to drop. Corn trade is expected to be marginal. Sorghum production in MY 2024/2025 is projected to increase to 100,000 tons due to somewhat higher planted area. Rice production in MY 2024/2025 is 1.43 million tons rough base and 1 million tons milled rice. Rice exports will rebound from last year at 920,000 tons milled base, a volume similar to two years ago.   Uruguay: Oilseeds and Products Annual Post forecasts Uruguay’s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 soybean up to 3.4 million metric tons (MMT) on increased soy acreage planting, driven by increased acreage in second or late crop soy due to producers fears of another dry year of La Niña weather pattern and potential disease threat to corn, preferring soy over corn. Production in MY2023/24 is also forecast up from previous estimates to 3.2 MMT on increased yields due to favorable rains both early and late in the season despite weeks of hot and dry weather from mid-January to February. Similarly, Post forecasts exports up in MY2024/25 to 3.15 MMT and 2.95 MMT in MY 2023/24 as production rebounds from a year of historic drought.   Venezuela: Sugar Annual Marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 Venezuelan sugar production is forecast to increase to 373,000 metric tons due to favorable yields, increased access to quality inputs, improved prices for producers and better sugar industry profit margins. While Venezuela’s sugar production has consistently grown over the past several years, many constraints persist in further expanding sugar production, including the lack of accessing credit and acute shortages of gasoil (diesel). FAS forecasts no changes in raw sugar imports in MY 2024/2025 due to increased domestic sugarcane production and an anticipated drop in refined sugar imports. Brazil continues remains the main exporter of both raw and refined sugar to Venezuela.  The following GAIN reports were released on April 17, 2024. _______   Argentina: Grain and Feed Annual Argentine wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 is forecast at 16.8 million tons, 1 million tons higher than the previous weather-affected season. Exports are projected to remain practically flat at 10 million tons (including wheat flour in its wheat equivalent. Barley production for MY 2024/2025 is forecast slightly higher at 5.2 million tons, with marginally higher exports at 3.5 million tons. Argentine corn production in MY 2024/2025 is projected down at 48 million tons on 6 million hectares. These are the lowest of the past six years. The outbreak of the corn stunt disease in MY 2023/2024 is expected to make many farmers, especially in the central-northern areas, shift to soybeans. Sorghum area and production in MY 2024/2025 are up because of a significant reduction in corn area. Rice in MY 2024/2025 is projected to expand significantly on 205,000 hectares, while exports would also be up at 440,000 tons, milled base. Costa Rica: Food Processing Ingredients Annual Though relatively small, the Costa Rican food processing sector relies on U.S. exporters to maintain critical supply chains. Proximity, reliability, and familiarity help make the United States the preferred supplier for a wide range of food processing ingredients, including wheat, corn, and animal proteins. U.S. agricultural and related products exports to Costa Rica exceeded $1 billion in 2023, despite global logistics challenges and associated increased shipping costs.   Costa Rica: Sugar Annual FAS/San José expects Costa Rican sugar production in marketing year 2023/24 to recover from a 20-year low in the previous year and to continue to rise in marketing year 2024/25 on expanded area planted to sugarcane as producers in Guanacaste continue to abandon rice production. Some forecasters expect a La Niña weather cycle to return in 2024, driving up sugarcane production in marketing year 2024/25 while reducing industrial yields. FAS/San José expects Costa Rica to continue to have sufficient exportable supplies of raw and refined sugars to satisfy domestic demand as well as quota-limited export opportunities in high value markets, including the United States, in marketing year 2024/25.   European Union: Grain and Feed Annual In MY 2024/25, EU grain production is anticipated to exceed the previous season’s levels and amount to 274 MMT. Excessive rain currently prevails in the EU’s northwest, hampering winter grains development and impeding spring planting operations. At the same time, early spring precipitations improved soil moisture in those regions where dry conditions were initially reported. Russian and Ukrainian grains continue to pose fierce competition in third country markets, hindering EU grain exporting capabilities. However, competitively priced grains continue to go to EU grain-deficient Member States, helping to improve the livestock sector’s production margins, particularly for the poultry sector.    European Union: Sugar Annual EU27 beet sugar production for MY 2024/25 is projected to remain unchanged at 14.8 million metric tons (MMT), with increased cultivation across member states offsetting a slight decline in France. The upcoming season presents opportunities for increased sugar prices, but also challenges like the ban on neonicotinoids threatening pest control and unpredictable weather patterns driven by climate change. EU27 sugar consumption is anticipated to remain stable at 16.8 MMT, but the influx of refugees from Ukraine may skew per capita estimations. While high EU sugar prices could drive a shift to other sweeteners like isoglucose, production is expected to remain stable. EU27 sugar imports in MY 2024/25 are forecasted to hold steady at 3.0 MMT, compared to 3.1 MMT in MY 2022/23. Similarly, the EU27 sugar export forecast for MY 2024/25 remains consistent compared to MY 2023/24 and 27 percent higher than in MY 2022/23.   Haiti: Grain and Feed Annual Haiti’s rice imports for marketing year July 2024 through June 2025 (MY 2024/2025) are forecast at 475,000 metric tons (MT), marginally higher compared to the previous marketing period driven by ongoing challenges to increase local production. Rice consumption during the same forecast period is projected unchanged at 530,000 MT relative to the same time last year as projected population growth and economic improvement are offset by large-scale human displacement. As social and political instability intensifies in the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince, which has far-reaching food security consequences nationwide, rice trade remains vulnerable to rapid deterioration due to irregularities in seaport operations and disruptions in food distribution networks.   India: Sugar Annual India’s centrifugal sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 (October-September) is forecast to reach 34.5 million metric tons (MMT), equivalent to 33 MMT of crystal white sugar. The current year's sugar production estimate is lowered to 34 MMT, equivalent to 32 MMT of crystal white sugar, due to the late onset of rain in Maharashtra and Karnataka as well as red rot infestation in central Uttar Pradesh. India’s sugar exports in MY 2024/2025 are estimated to be 3.7 MMT as the Indian government is likely to maintain the export cap to meet domestic food consumption and sugar to ethanol diversion for the Ethanol Blending Program. Sugar consumption in the forecast year is expected to reach 32 MMT to meet sugar requirement during festivals, rise in pre-packed food market, sugar and confectioneries, and organized and unorganized catering services.   Mexico: Sugar Annual Post forecasts Mexico’s sugar production at 5.5 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October 1 – September 30), 13 percent higher than the estimate for MY 2023/24. The increased production forecast is based on unseasonal rains in several sugarcane-producing states from October 2023 through January 2024, the planting season for the MY 2024/25 crop, and expected changes in weather conditions as La Niña phenomenon could begin towards the middle of 2024. The National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugar Cane (CONADESUCA) has not yet published an official MY 2024/25 forecast. On March 7, CONADESUCA published its third production estimate for MY 2023/24, showing a decrease in sugar production due to lower estimated planted area and lower factory yields.   Nigeria: Oilseeds and Products Annual Due to higher input costs associated with planting corn, rice, and other crops, soybean and peanut production is expected to increase in marketing year (MY) 2024/25. Private sector investors are expanding oil palm production and increasing processing capacity to take advantage of strong demand and high prices. Soybean exports are forecasted to significantly increase to 212,000MT in MY 2024/25 from just 7,000 MT in MY2023/24. This projected increase is due to higher production, lower domestic consumption, and higher export demand for Nigeria's non genetically-engineered beans, coupled with the devaluation of the naira encouraging local producers to export to acquire hard currency.   Peru: Sugar Annual Sugar cane production in marketing year (MY) 2025 is forecast at 10.2 milllion metric tons (MMT). Cane sugar production in MY 2025 is forecast to reach 1.3 MMT, increasing 14 percent compared to the previous year. This recovery is due to better weather conditions. Peru was severely affected by El Nino in MY 2024, which resulted in heavy rains in the northern regions. Peruvian sugar exports for MY 2025 are forecast at 120,000 metric tons (MT) while imports are forecast at 280,000 MT.   Senegal: FAIRS Country Report Annual This report is an annual update of Senegal’s food and feed regulations and governmental regulatory bodies and enforcement mechanisms. It provides information and guidance on import requirements, procedures, and documentation. In 2022, there are 17 Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) standards that were approved but not yet listed in the Senegalese official standards catalogue.   Senegal: FAIRS Export Certificate Report Annual This report provides information on export certificates and other certification/accreditation required for imported food and agriculture products, including live animals. There is no update for 2023.   United Kingdom: Grain and Feed Annual The UK is forecast to have one of the lowest grain crops on record in MY 2024/25 following challenging winter planting conditions, a very wet winter, and continued rains now disrupting crop management and spring plantings. Not only is this expected to significantly reduce the planted area, but also average yields. Quality remains to be determined, and the weather between now and harvest will be crucial, causing producer sentiment to be low. As a consequence of the small harvest, and despite continued, lackluster demand from the livestock sector, the UK will again be a net importer of grain, especially corn for feed.   United Kingdom: Oilseeds and Products Annual MY 2023/24 saw rather disappointing yields for the UK rapeseed oilseed crop overall. In MY 2024/25 rapeseed production is forecast even lower at 900 thousand metric tons (MT) due to a combination of poor growing conditions, a sharp fall in the price of rapeseed, pest pressure and the increased attractiveness of agri-environment options. In MY 2024/25 imports of rapeseed oilseeds are forecast partly to fill the gap created by low domestic rapeseed production, with pressure also eased by lower expected demand from the livestock/dairy sectors.   For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.

REMINDER: USDA Under Secretary Taylor to Hold Media Call from India Agribusiness Trade Mission

NEW DELHI, India, April 23, 2024 – U.S. Department of Agriculture Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis M. Taylor is leading a USDA-sponsored agribusiness trade mission this week in India. Under Secretary Taylor will join principals from the California, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Mexico and North Dakota state departments of agriculture for a media teleconference on Wed., April 24, at 10 a.m. EDT to discuss the trade mission.

Reporters interested in participating should RSVP to press-fas@usda.gov by noon EDT TODAY, April 23.

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