USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service,update

 

The following GAIN reports were released on January 2, 2025. _______   Australia: Citrus Annual Early seasonal conditions for the MY 2024/25 citrus crop have been very favorable. Along with expansion in production area, growers anticipate an improvement in production and the prospect of high-quality fruit production. Orange production is expected to increase five percent to 545,000 metric tons (MT) from the prior’s year estimate, the highest over the last two decades. Tangerine/mandarin production is forecast to reach a record 225,000 MT. Orange exports are forecast to reach the third-highest output on record of 190,000 MT, and tangerine/mandarin exports are expected to reach a new record of 105,000 MT for MY 2024/25. Orange juice production is forecast to fall by two percent to 15,000 MT, mainly due to the anticipated improvement of fresh (navel) orange fruit quality. In contrast, imports are forecast to recover to 13,000 MT after falling from a lack of supply due to a severe drought impacting production in Brazil.   China: Citrus Annual Post forecasts China’s overall citrus production in MY2024/25 will grow from MY2023/24, despite weather related challenges. Orange production is decreasing slightly due to the naturally smaller Navel crop year, while the production of tangerine/mandarins as well as pomelos/grapefruit will continue to grow. With China’s large supply and increasing demand from southeast countries, Post forecasts citrus exports will continue to grow in MY2024/25.   Egypt: Egypt Formalizes Twelve Month Shelf-Life Validity Period for Frozen Beef Liver Egypt has released a pair of Government Decrees, several World Trade Organization notifications, and a revised Egyptian Standard in recent months on the shelf-life validity period for frozen beef liver and other products. The end-result is that Egypt has extended the shelf life validity period for frozen beef and buffalo liver (to 12 months instead of 7 months), frozen fish (to 10 months instead of six months), and for plain and flavored yogurt (to 30 days instead of 15 days).   Indonesia: Indonesia Plans to Impose 12 Percent VAT for Luxury Agricultural Products as Early as January 2025 On December 16, 2024, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) announced the increase in value-added tax (VAT) from the current 11 percent to 12 percent on selected goods and services, effective January 1, 2025. In addition, a separate 12 percent luxury goods sales tax will newly be applied for luxury products intended for high-end Indonesian consumers (luxury VAT). Impacted products include premium beef, pork, fruit, seafood, and specialty rice which historically were not subject to any VAT. Once in force and fully implemented as early as January 2025, the luxury VAT policy will have a significant impact on above-mentioned U.S. agricultural exports to Indonesia, currently valued at approximately $154 million per year. These products already face strong competition from countries such as Australia, New Zealand and the People’s Republic of China which offer competitive prices and have duty-free access or lower tariffs under free trade agreements.   Malaysia: Oilseeds and Products Update FAS Kuala Lumpur (Post) projects a slight decrease in palm oil production in Market year (MY) 24/25 to 19.2 million metric tons (MT) on recent weather challenges and lower than average production in the beginning months of the MY. With palm oil at a premium to competing vegetable oils, Post estimates a decrease in exports of approximately 770 thousand MT for MY 24/25. Meanwhile, with soybean prices returning closer to average on recovering production from major suppliers, Post estimates MY 24/25 imports of soybean to increase to 725 thousand MT, with increases in imports of soybean oil and soybean meal also forecasted for MY 24/25. Noting Malaysia’s increase in production of used cooking oil (UCO) and its high demand globally, FAS Kuala Lumpur projects an increase in food use consumption of palm oil to 880 thousand MT, to account for increased frying of palm oil.   South Korea: South Korea Beer Market Report Korea’s beer imports reached $218 million in 2023, up 11.8 percent from $195 million in 2022, but still 30 percent down from the record high of $310 million in 2018. Although Korea’s beer imports have been decreasing since the pandemic, the United States increased exports of beer to Korea in 2023, reaching $17.9 million, up 43% from $12.5 million in 2022. The United States is the fourth-largest supplier followed by Japan, Netherlands, and China. While American beer faces elevated competition in Korea against export-oriented competitors, increased demand for premium quality craft beer among the opinion-leading beer consumer groups should expand export opportunities for American beer to Korea in the coming years. ATO Seoul, in collaboration with Brewers Association, has been organizing ‘Great American Craft Beer Showcase’ at the Korea International Beer Expo since 2019 to introduce a variety of American craft beer to Korean buyers, importers and consumers.   South Korea: Korea Cheese Market Brief Korean imports of cheese products continue to grow, seeing a five percent compound annual growth rate over the last five years. Mozzarella is the most imported cheese product and the United States is the leading supplier of cheese to Korea. For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.