General Secretariat of the Council: Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine

 

Providing their first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, think tanks report on the united response of the Western bloc and the unfolding hu… Library blog Wednesday 9 March 2022   ● General Secretariat of the Council   Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine   Providing their first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, think tanks report on the united response of the Western bloc and the unfolding humanitarian crisis; assess the policy and security implications for the EU and the impact for the Middle East, North Africa, Serbia, and India; and analyse the strategic goals of Moscow, the involvement of Belarus and the impact of economic sanctions. Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine 10 March 2022   Think Tank Review   gsclibrary This is a non-exhaustive collection of Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine, covering the period from February 2022 onwards, which is regularly updated:   Providing their first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, think tanks report on the united response of the Western bloc and the unfolding humanitarian crisis; assess the policy and security implications for the EU and the impact for the Middle East, North Africa, Serbia, and India; and analyse the strategic goals of Moscow, the involvement of Belarus and the impact of economic sanctions. CENTER FOR SECURITY STUDIES (CSS) Russian Analytical Digest No. 278: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: First Assessments and Geopolitical Implications This issue collects first assessments of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP War in Europe: responding to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine This paper considers how Russia’s assault on Ukraine threatens to become the largest European conflict in decades. A vigorous but judicious Western and global response is critical to limit the damage. UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Some preliminary thoughts on the policy implications of the Russian aggression Thursday 24 February 2022 is, and will be understood as, a watershed in European and global modern history. This article considers various implications of the full-scale military attack on and aggression against a neighbouring state of almost 45 million inhabitants by the world’s leading nuclear weapon power – and a permanent member of the UN Security Council. UTRIKESPOLITISKA INSTITUTET (SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS) Russia's “soft annexation” of Belarus during its invasion of Ukraine This article examines how Russia has for all intents and purposes also taken control of Belarus militarily, as a side-line to its unprecedented military build-up on the land borders of Ukraine and its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES The Ukraine crisis: an interim analysis According to this analysis, it is already clear that with the invasion of Ukraine, Putin has upset the world order that has existed since the Second World War. The Western bloc has already begun to realign and is presenting a unified and forceful stance vis-à-vis Moscow. Israel can no longer avoid taking a clear stand and siding fully with the countries opposing Russia. BARCELONA CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Oriente Medio y el Norte de África ante la guerra en Ucrania: vasos comunicantes Middle East and North Africa is, after Europe, the region that will feel the impact of the war in Ukraine most acutely, mainly in terms of energy and grain prices. The article analyses other, deeper, connections such as the diplomatic battle, the negotiation over Iran's nuclear programme and its impact on conflict dynamics across the region. ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES The Ukraine War and the Risk of a New Foreign Fighters Wave The author of this article reports on some concerns following Zelensky's plea for foreigners to join the fight against Russia and his promise to give them arms on their arrival. The article recalls the war in Donbas and the great influx of foreign fighters and the risk that this happens again. CENTAR ZA EVROPSKE POLITIKE (EUROPEAN POLICY CENTRE)  Ukraine and Russia are at war. What does that mean for the future of EU-Serbia relations? The authors reflect on how the current situation in Ukraine will effect Serbian politics with regard to the EU, considering their close ties to Russia. ITALIAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL STUDIES Putin’s invasion of Ukraine: A wake-up call also for the MENA region? This brief approaches the different reactions of the MENA countries to the Ukraine-Russia conflict, reporting a general caution from these countries to condemn Russia's actions except from Foreign Minister Lapid. The author gives a brief overview of the impact of the war in the MENA region.               FRIENDS OF EUROPE Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: getting the right Western strategy in place This article states that it is time to move beyond disbelief and develop a coherent Western strategy to face Russia's aggression. It considers whether this will be the opportunity to create more integrated European units with neighbours like France, the Benelux, Poland and Italy, and even with the post-Brexit UK. INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS (IEEE) Efectos de la guerra de Ucrania en las Repúblicas Bálticas Before the Ukrainian war, the threat of Russia was mainly understood as a matter of political or economic dimensions in the three Baltic republics. For the author, from now on, this threat is more related to an essential military dimension. This article highlights the increasing reinforcement of this military dimension in the Baltic republics and Scandinavia, which is done in order to guarantee a solid defence from the allies of the region. REAL INSTITUTO ELCANO Ucrania en busca de refugio digital Government stability and international order are in danger in Ukraine, but also the protection of its people and its national security. The control of the technological infrastructure plays an essential role in this, according to the author. This is why it is important to analyse Ukraine's ability to respond to a possible hostage of its digital infrastructure by Russia, and the optimal scenarios in which Ukraine could count on to protect its data and especially in collaboration with other countries. CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) "Russian invasion of Ukraine. Deciphering where India stands" This article considers New Delhi's position vis-à-vis the war and India’s pro-Russian tilt which is a function of its "time tested" friendship with Moscow as well as of geopolitical necessity. However, it is argued that India has a great scope in resolving the impasse in order to avoid being seen as guilty of complicity. CENTRUM STOSUNKÓW MIĘDZYNARODOWYCH (CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS) War in Europe. Ukraine fights for the West Contrary to Kremlin’s expectations, the West is united in its response to the war in Ukraine. The paper argues that this ability to take tough measures towards Moscow is crucial since at stake is nothing less than the very survival of Ukraine and the freedom of the entire Central and Eastern Europe. Possible scenarios for Ukraine and global strategic consequences are also outlined. STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK NATO-Russia Tensions: Putin Orders Invasion of Ukraine This paper examines Moscow’s strategic goals with the invasion of Ukraine and the need to avoid further escalation, taking into account the security agreements between Russia and NATO and the current European security order. STIFTUNG WISSENSCHAFT UND POLITIK Moskau bedroht die Balance im hohen Norden Russia’s attack on Ukraine is not based on legitimate security interests but a rejection of the European security order. According to the authors Russia’s demand for more consideration for its own security interest have achieved the exact opposite. Russia's pressure has the paradoxical effect of bringing Finland and Sweden closer to NATO. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG SWIFT exclusion is fine, sanctioning the Russian Central Bank is better The article analyses the economic sanctions posed on Russia by the EU. BERTELSMANN STIFTUNG What are the economic implications for the Russian and European economies? The Russian war against Ukraine This article gives an overview of the implications the economic sanctions on Russia have for the European and Russian economies. INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Guerre en Ukraine : leçon de grammaire stratégique This paper examines Russia’s objectives in launching a high-intensity war against Ukraine, which are clearly not limited to Donbass. Nor are they aimed at the acquisition of new territories. In all likelihood, it concludes that this is a large-scale campaign for regime change aimed at installing a power in Kiev that will guarantee it obedience and security. INSTITUT FRANCAIS DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES Le choc de la réalité : La coalition feu tricolore dans la crise russo-ukrainienne This analysis considers that the Russian-Ukrainian crisis puts to the test the cohesion of the new traffic light coalition, the authority of Chancellor Scholz and the ambition to adapt the post-Merkel German foreign policy. CLINGENDAEL - THE NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS  Phoenix or Icarus? CRU Policy Brief European strategic autonomy in light of Ukraine With all eyes on the next Russian move in Ukraine, the notion of European strategic autonomy is experiencing a revival. This paper considers the concept, concluding that broad use of the term ‘EU strategic autonomy’, as is in vogue, risks giving populism and nationalism an unnecessary impulse. CLINGENDAEL - THE NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS  Tsar-struck : How Vladimir Putin uses the history of the Russian Empire On February 24, Vladimir Putin shocked the world by starting a war in Ukraine. In the run-up to the Russian invasion, Putin delivered far-reaching speeches and wrote an article to legitimise his actions – packed with intense rhetoric on imperial as well as Soviet history. This article considers how Putin has consistently instrumentalised history to achieve his policy goals since the day he became president. THE HAGUE CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES Real and Imagined Challenges to Strategic Stability Strategic stability has come under pressure from a shifting military and political environment: the number of major strategic actors has increased; missile defence has evolved; and the battlefield has expanded. Nuclear arsenals are being increased and diversified. Yet, the author argues that warnings that we have entered into a new arms race should be viewed with caution and, contrary to what other analysts have suggested, technological advancements are not fundamentally undermining strategic stability. CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Changes Everything Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will have profound consequences for the stability of the region and for the future of European security, not to mention the immense human suffering. In this article, Carnegie Europe’s scholars give their assessment about how the military attack will fundamentally change the post-Cold War era. DGAP - GERMAN COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS If Russia uses migration as a weapon, Europeans should respond in kind Around 442,000 people have so far fled Ukraine – not just to the EU, but also to neighbors like Moldova. This is a humanitarian issue, and should not be conflated with “migrant instrumentalization” (MI), whereby a state pushes people across a border to coerce the EU to change position. Yet Russia is likely to employ MI in this way, especially if it moves deep into Western Ukraine. Drawing on an in-depth study, this policy brief shows how the EU can meet this specific threat. London School of Economics and Political Science The Long Shadow of the Soviet Union: Demystifying Putin's Rhetoric Towards Ukraine  This paper provides a contextualised analysis of the Kremlin’s rhetoric regarding Ukraine since 2014. Examining the content and accuracy of Russian complaints about NATO enlargement, the article examines other motivations Putin may have for considering an attack on Ukraine, in particular 'nationalist irredentism'.  RUSSIAN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS COUNCIL The end of diplomacy? Seven Glimpses of the New Normal The author outlines events leading up to the current situation in Ukraine.  CENTRE FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES The Kremlin Playbook 3: Keeping the Faith This study aims to expose a new front of Russian malign influence in Europe and Eurasia: the instrumentalization of values, traditions, and religious beliefs to exploit or sow divisions among Western societies. INSTITUTE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS  Quo Vadis, Belarus? The February 2022 edition of the IRMO Brief, authored by Zoran Meter, deals with the situation in Belarus after the presidential election in 2020 to present day. The author also analyses how Belarusian support to Russia will facilitate Russian ambitions in Ukraine.    This post does not necessarily represent the positions, policies, or opinions of the Council of the European Union or the European Council. The Council Library reading room is open on Monday, Wednesday and Friday from 12.00 to 15.00. 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