IMF interesting latest news

 

The latest IMF analysis of global economics, finance, development and policy issues shaping the world //

Dear maria, We just published a new blog—please find the full text below. Translations coming soon.   How European Banks Can Support the Recovery By Mai Chi Dao, Andreas Jobst, Aiko Mineshima, and Srobona Mitra A robust post-COVID-19 recovery will depend on banks having sufficient capital to provide credit. While most European banks entered the pandemic with strong capital levels, they are highly exposed to economic sectors hit hard by the pandemic. A new IMF study assesses the impact of the pandemic on European banks’ capital through its effect on profitability, asset quality, and risk exposures. The approach differs from other recent studies—by the European Central Bank and European Banking Authority—because it incorporates policy support provided to banks and borrowers. It also incorporates granular estimates of corporate sector distress, and examines a larger number of European countries and banks. The analysis finds that, while the pandemic will significantly deplete banks’ capital, their buffers are sufficiently large to withstand the likely impact of the crisis. And with the right policies, banks will be able to support the recovery with new lending. Using the IMF’s January 2021 projections as a baseline, euro area banks will remain broadly resilient to the deep recession in 2020 followed by the partial recovery in 2021. The aggregate capital ratio is projected to decline from 14.7 percent to 13.1 percent by the end of 2021 if policy support is maintained. Indeed no bank will breach the prudential minimum capital requirement of 4.5 percent, even without policy support.   But at least three important caveats are worth noting. First, effective policies matter. Supportive policies are extremely important in reducing both the extent and variability of banks’ capital erosion. They substantially weaken the link between the macroeconomic shock and bank capital, and lower the chances that banks cut back lending to conserve capital. Aside from regulatory capital relief, these policies include a wide range of borrower support measures, such as debt moratoria, credit guarantees, and deferred insolvency proceedings. They also include grants, tax relief, and wage subsidies to firms.   Looking beyond the euro area, banks in Europe’s emerging economies are likely to see a higher capital erosion of 2.4 percentage points. In many of these countries, tighter government budgets meant a lower level of support. Second, market-based capital thresholds are the more relevant benchmarks.  For many larger banks, hybrid capital—which contains elements of both debt and equity—is likely to be an important source of funds at a time when the cost of capital remains high. But investors in hybrid capital typically rely on interest payments. If policies are not effective, several banks might struggle to meet their so-called “maximum distributable amount” (MDA) capital thresholds, which are higher than their current regulatory minimum requirements. This would lead to restrictions on dividend distributions and interest payments to hybrid capital, possibly spooking investors. Larger banks, which hold about 25 percent of capital in such instruments, could come under funding pressure.   Third, the speed of the recovery is critical. A protracted recovery could result in much larger credit losses and higher provisions for bad loans. If GDP growth in 2020–21 is 1.2 percentage points below the baseline forecast, the erosion of bank capital could become more pronounced. Over 5 percent of all banks would risk breaching their MDA thresholds, even with policies in place. And this share would double if policies do not work as projected (see above chart). Policies to keep banks healthy These results suggest a strategy that focuses on the following areas: Continue pandemic support policies until the recovery is firmly established. A premature winding down of borrower support could create “cliff edge effects” and risk choking off credit supply just when it is needed most. As the recovery gains momentum, eligibility criteria should be tightened and be better targeted. Some direct equity support could also be considered for viable firms. Clarify supervisory guidance on the availability and duration of capital relief. Supervisors should clarify the timetable for bank’s capital buffers. Banks should be allowed to build back capital buffers gradually to preserve lending capacity. Restrictions on dividend payouts and share buybacks should be maintained until the recovery is well underway. Support balance sheet repair by strengthening nonperforming loan management and the bank resolution framework. As policy measures expire, delayed loss recognition will likely trigger a wave of loan defaults. The EU authorities should use the current system-wide stress test, due in July 2021, to assess the need for precautionary recapitalizations. Insolvency regimes should be strengthened by addressing administrative constraints and establishing fast-track procedures to restructure debt. Address structurally low bank profitability. Banks will take several years to build back capital organically through retained earnings unless their profitability improves. Banks should therefore enhance non-interest revenues and streamline operations to improve their cost structures, including through greater use of digital technologies. And consolidation could improve banks’ efficiency, while facilitating a better allocation of capital and liquidity within banking groups. Mai Chi Dao is a Senior Economist in the IMF’s European Department. Andreas (Andy) Jobst is a senior economist in the IMF’s European Department. Aiko Mineshima is a Senior Economist in the IMF’s European Department. Srobona Mitra is a senior economist in the IMF’s European Department. Thank you again for your interest in IMF Blog. Read more of our latest content here. Take good care, Glenn Gottselig Blog Editor, IMF GGottselig@IMF.org

The latest IMF analysis of global economics, finance, development and policy issues shaping the world //

Dear maria, We just published a new blog—please find the full text below. Translations coming soon.   Asia-Pacific, the Gigantic Domino of Climate Change By Vitor Gaspar and Chang Yong Rhee Forget the poetic flap of a butterfly’s wings in Beijing causing rain in Central Park. Climate issues in Asia-Pacific are measured in superlatives. The world’s biggest population. Two of the three largest carbon dioxide-emitting countries and the largest share of emissions globally. The most exposed to extreme weather events. Some of the smallest and most vulnerable countries. Also, the fastest-growing part of the global economy and many of the leaders in green technology. It’s not hard to see that what Asia does to fight global warming will be literally felt across the whole planet. Pursuing a green recovery in the aftermath of COVID-19 might sound daunting, but it’s actually a great opportunity to direct recovery spending into stimulating sustainable jobs and growth. Green investment is generally more labor-intensive than the regular kind. The near-term extra spending and jobs would strengthen economies. In the longer-term, Asian economies would become more sustainable and resilient, and could build on their lead in many of the emerging green technologies. What policies are needed? A newly released IMF staff paper makes recommendations in three areas. More carbon taxes, more compensation With the world’s most populous and fastest-growing economies, Asia-Pacific emits the largest volume of greenhouse gas, producing about half the world’s carbon dioxide. China, India (the first and third-largest emitters respectively, with the US second) and other large emitters will need to make greater efforts to reduce emissions if global warming is to be kept to the Paris Agreement’s goal of 1.5–2 degrees Centigrade above pre-industrial levels. Taxes on the carbon dioxide released when burning fossil fuels can be a highly effective way of reducing emissions, but they are little used in the region. Even a gradually introduced and relatively modest carbon tax of $25 per ton would achieve the region’s aggregate Paris Agreement target. But Asia’s Paris targets, like other region’s, are well below what is needed and models suggest that $50-100 per ton is required globally to keep warming below 2 degrees.   Rather than taxing all emissions, much can be done by targeting the most polluting fuels. That would be very effective in countries like China, India and Mongolia, heavily reliant on coal, by far the dirtiest fossil fuel. And it comes with the added benefit of reducing air pollution, which could save some 3 million lives in China alone by 2030. Of course, some households, workers, and firms would be particularly affected by the higher energy prices resulting from carbon taxes. They need to be identified and compensated, ideally with targeted benefits, though universal transfers can also work. For example, China could use carbon tax revenues to increase its minimum guaranteed income scheme, finance green investment or reduce other taxes.   Other policies can help. For example, more sectors can be included in emissions trading systems, in which the government sets overall limits on emissions and lets the market determine their price. Financial incentives to use less-polluting alternatives, such as electric vehicles, reduce the need to raise energy prices. Stricter regulations on air quality can support decarbonization efforts. Increase adaptability to climate change Even in the best of scenarios, historic emissions mean a certain amount of warming and climate change will be inevitable. Extreme weather events are only expected to intensify, so adaptation is urgent. Rising sea levels alone could directly affect a billion people by mid-century, potentially submerging many cities and wiping out entire nations. Low-income and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable and need to invest in protecting infrastructure, making water resources more resilient, adapting dryland agriculture, restoring mangroves, and improving early warning systems for natural disasters.   But some of the most vulnerable have the least resources to prepare. Adaptation requires stepping up public investment, on average by about 3 percent of GDP annually. For the smallest, also the least-polluting countries, the price tag is higher. A recent IMF/World Bank assessment concluded that Tonga would have to spend $67 million a year in climate adaptation for 10 years. Doesn’t sound much, until one realizes this is 14 percent of its GDP, which underscores the need for greater international support for such countries. Greener recovery from COVID-19 The COVID-19 crisis does not change the climate crisis, but provides an opportunity to tackle it. How? By ensuring that as much as possible of the very large recovery spending is allocated towards greener activities. Some countries are already doing that, like Korea in its Green New Deal. But much more can be done as the pandemic response shifts from crisis containment to recovery. Countries seeking to accelerate the transition to carbon neutrality can invest in renewable energy, retrofitting buildings, upgrading the electricity grid, facilitating electric cars, and incentivizing research. When the main challenge is adaptation, they could upgrade infrastructure projects, retrofit existing assets, and develop coastal protection. For many, it will be a combination of both. Global efforts to promote and finance the transfer of green technologies to developing countries and expanding multilateral climate funds need to be stepped up. The IMF is helping by integrating climate in our annual country economic assessments and scaling up capacity development to ensure government officials have the needed skills to handle these complex issues. Butterflies still matter… In a 1952 short story, American science fiction writer Ray Bradbury imagined a man from 2055 who travels to the past and, by accidentally stepping on a butterfly, changes the outcome of his day’s presidential election. It was “a small thing,” Bradbury writes, “that could upset balances and knock down a line of small dominoes and then big dominoes and then gigantic dominoes.” In our global fight against climate change, Asia-Pacific is a gigantic domino that cannot fall. As the world recovers from COVID-19, now is the time and opportunity to ensure ourselves a better 2055. Vitor Gaspar is Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. Chang Yong Rhee is the Director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department. ***** Thank you again for your interest in IMF Blog. Read more of our latest content here. Take good care, Glenn Gottselig Blog Editor, IMF GGottselig@IMF.org

The latest IMF analysis of global economics, finance, development and policy issues shaping the world //

Dear maria, In today's edition we focus on Special Drawing Rights, trade's role in the recovery, the IMF's climate approach, climate change in Asia, sovereign debt challenges, keeping European banks healthy, China's recovery, African debt, financial inclusion, and much more. On that note, let's dive right in.  But first, our IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings are coming up in April (agenda here)—if you haven’t already, subscribe to our special 6-day briefing by clicking here and pressing send. It's that easy. SDR ON THE IMF EXECUTIVE BOARD AGENDA The IMF's Executive Board this week conveyed broad support for the general allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) of $650 billion. The move would provide additional liquidity to the global economic system by supplementing the reserve assets of the Fund’s 190 member countries. An SDR is an international reserve asset created by the IMF to supplement the official reserves of its member countries.  "By addressing the long-term global need for reserve assets, a new SDR allocation would benefit all our member countries and support the global recovery from the COVID-19 crisis," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said after the board concluded an informal discussion on the matter. What's next? The MD will present by June a formal proposal to the Executive Board to consider the allocation, which is based on an assessment of IMF member countries' long-term global reserve needs.  Work to be done: IMF staff are developing new measures to enhance transparency and accountability in the use of SDRs while preserving the reserve asset characteristic of the SDR. In parallel to the formal allocation process, staff will also explore options for members that are stronger financially to reallocate their SDRs to support vulnerable and low-income countries.  The new options being explored by staff to help SDRs go to countries in need would bolster efforts already being taken by richer countries to transfer SDRs to help poorer member countries. Many countries in the current crisis have already used a portion of their SDRs to expand the IMF's concessional financing by scaling up the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust loan resources. In fact, two-thirds of the roughly $24 billion of the PRGT's fast track loan mobilization round launched last spring came from the use of existing SDRs. More on SDRs: Want to know more about SDRs and why they are important? Click here to access more IMF resources on SDRs including a recent Q&A on the topic. Hear IMF Communications Director Gerry Rice answer questions about SDRs during his weekly press briefing. TRADE'S ROLE IN THE RECOVERY MD Kristalina Georgieva joined World Trade Organization Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in reinforcing the importance of trade to the global effort to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and recover towards a greener, more inclusive and digital future. "Unleashing the full power of trade to fight the pandemic is a moral and it is an economic necessity," Georgieva said at this week's WTO Aid-for-Trade Stocktaking event, which also featured UN Conference on Trade and Development Secretary-General Isabelle Durant, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Secretary-General Angel Gurría, and World Bank President David R. Malpass. Global trade in 2020 declined by 9.6 percent but trade volumes are expected to grow 8.5 percent in 2021 and 6.5 percent in 2022. "Trade will be at the heart of efforts to build forward toward a greener, more inclusive and digital recovery. We are going to experience structural shifts to the new climate economy. It will depend on the exchange of goods and services," the MD said. Why it matters: Ngozi said least developed countries were hit hardest by the fall in trade. Ramping up vaccine manufacturing and trying to use existing capacity will be especially important for developing economies while minimizing trade bottlenecks and barriers. All of this should happen concurrently with WTO member discussion over a possible intellectual property waiver that could open vaccine production to more manufacturers. Ngozi noted that production of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine requires 280 components manufactured in 19 countries. "If in one country or one place there should be a blockage on some component this is going to hold up the scaling of production of that vaccine all over the world," she said. Watch the full event here. THE IMF'S NEW CLIMATE APPROACH MD Georgieva this week laid out how the IMF is moving forward with work that will further link climate risks to financial stability. That includes incorporating climate in the IMF's annual country assessments, known as Article IV reports. The IMF is set to do 70 of those assessments this year and next, the MD said at the Investing in Climate Action event hosted by Project Syndicate with the European Commission and European Investment Bank. Making news: "The IMF is well-known for the credibility of its data," she said. "What we are now doing, and I’m very proud to announce it in this discussion, we are moving toward integrating climate indicators, more specifically carbon intensity indicators, in our quarterly, mainstream macroeconomic performance reports."  Makings sure countries are well informed on the right policies, financial support, and making a credible push on the financial system to integrate climate-related risks are three ways the IMF is establishing itself as a "systemically significant institution in the transition to the new climate economy," she said in a discussion with European Investment Bank President Werner Hoyer and UN Development Programme Administrator Achim Steiner. Watch the full event here with the MD's appearance starting around the 3 hour 23 minute mark. ASIA'S CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGE Climate issues in Asia-Pacific are measured in superlatives. The world’s biggest population. Two of the three largest carbon dioxide-emitting countries and the largest share of emissions globally. The most exposed to extreme weather events. Some of the smallest and most vulnerable countries. Also, the fastest-growing part of the global economy and many of the leaders in green technology. What Asia does to fight global warming will be literally felt across the whole planet, the IMF's Vitor Gaspar and Chang Yong Rhee write in a new blog. Three things: What policies are needed? The blog outlines three areas where action can be taken. 1. More carbon taxes, more compensation -- Taxes on the carbon dioxide released when burning fossil fuels can be a highly effective way of reducing emissions, but they are little used in the region. Even a gradually introduced and relatively modest carbon tax of $25 per ton would achieve the region’s aggregate Paris Agreement target. But Asia’s Paris targets, like other region’s, are well below what is needed and models suggest that $50-100 per ton is required globally to keep warming below 2 degrees. Targeting the most polluting fuels and compensating people affected by higher energy prices is an important part of the strategy 2. Increase adaptability to climate change -- Low-income and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable and need to invest in protecting infrastructure, making water resources more resilient, adapting dryland agriculture, restoring mangroves, and improving early warning systems for natural disasters. But some of the most vulnerable have the least resources to prepare. Adaptation requires stepping up public investment, on average by about 3 percent of GDP annually. 3. Greener recovery from COVID-19 -- Recovery spending can be allocated towards greener activities. Some countries are already doing that, like Korea in its Green New Deal. But much more can be done as the pandemic response shifts from crisis containment to recovery. Countries seeking to accelerate the transition to carbon neutrality can invest in renewable energy, retrofitting buildings, upgrading the electricity grid, facilitating electric cars, and incentivizing research. Read the full blog here. Watch Vitor Gaspar talk about the need for a global agreement on a carbon price floor during an event on Carbon Border Adjustments for Climate hosted by the French government. SOVEREIGN DEBT AND INTERNATIONAL REFORM As part of the WTO's Aid-for-Trade discussion, the IMF this week hosted a panel on sovereign debt challenges and reform of the international debt architecture  The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed external debt levels to record highs in many countries. According to the joint IMF-World Bank Debt Sustainability Framework, over half of low-income countries are at high risk of, or already face, debt distress. The session examined the economic challenges that high debt poses for many countries, emphasizing how the pandemic has exacerbated these challenges. The panel included the IMF's Ceyla Pazarbasioglu and Guillaume Chabert; Senegal's Minister of the Economy, Planning and International Cooperation, Amadou Hott; World Bank Chief Economist Carmen Reinhart; and Chairman of the Paris Club, Emmanuel Moulin. Watch the full event here. KEEPING EUROPEAN BANKS HEALTHY A robust post-COVID-19 recovery will depend on banks having sufficient capital to provide credit. While most European banks entered the pandemic with strong capital levels, they are highly exposed to economic sectors hit hard by the pandemic, the IMF's Mai Chi Dao, Andy Jobst, Aiko Mineshima, and Srobona Mitra write in a new blog. A new IMF study assesses the impact of the pandemic on European banks’ capital through its effect on profitability, asset quality, and risk exposures. The approach differs from other recent studies—by the European Central Bank and European Banking Authority—because it incorporates policy support provided to banks and borrowers. It also incorporates granular estimates of corporate sector distress, and examines a larger number of European countries and banks. The analysis finds that, while the pandemic will significantly deplete banks’ capital, their buffers are sufficiently large to withstand the likely impact of the crisis. And with the right policies, banks will be able to support the recovery with new lending. Read the full blog here. GLOBAL ECONOMY 2021: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES First Deputy Managing Director Geoffrey Okamoto at the China Development Forum highlighted China's recovery as the country has returned to pre-pandemic growth levels. But he also said that growth still lacks balance, with private consumption lagging investment. Consumption is expected to catch up as investment growth normalizes but significant risks remain. Policies for the future: The best policies will be those that support the recovery, help strengthen resilience, and tackle long-standing challenges. For example, foster the transition to green energy and digitalization. He noted that policies announced during China's “Two Sessions” meetings to strengthen high-quality growth, rein in carbon emissions, and improve energy efficiency should support China’s quest to rebalance its growth model towards greener and more consumption-oriented growth. "Achieving faster and higher-quality growth requires mutually enhancing reforms: strengthening social safety nets and green investment; opening up of domestic markets; continuing to reform state companies; and ensuring that private and government-owned firms can compete on an equal basis," he said. Read the full speech here. IMF CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE CRISIS The deputy director of the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development, Roger Nord, joined the Ideagen’s Global Leadership Summit to explain how IMF Capacity Development has provided assistance to nearly all IMF member countries on crisis response, protecting the most vulnerable, and building a strong and lasting recovery. In particular, the IMF has been working with tax administrations and budget offices in many countries to help them restore operations (including through digital platforms) and strengthen support to businesses and individuals, without compromising safeguards and accountability. Nord added that the IMF is concerned about the impact of the pandemic crisis on countries’ ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. That’s why the IMF has launched a COVID-19 crisis capacity development initiative to meet the surge in demand for technical assistance and training seeking to put in place institutions and policies that deliver on those objectives. Watch the event here. PODCAST: AFRICA'S DEBT COMPLICATES RECOVERY Jason Rosario Braganza, Executive Director for the African Forum and Network for Debt and Development (AFRODAD), says countries countries need more fiscal space to boost social protection systems, provide stimulus for businesses, and create resources for vaccination procurement and rollout programs. Earlier this month, Braganza was invited to participate in the IMF and European Commission's annual African Fiscal Forum, where Finance Ministers, heads of international agencies, and development partners discussed ways to support African economies through the pandemic. Listen to the full podcast here. F&D: HOW CAN FINTECH BE (MORE) INCLUSIVE? In our Spring 2021 issue of F&D on the digital future, Jon Frost, Leonardo Gambacorta and Hyun Song Shin of the Bank for International Settlements write that for technology to benefit everyone, private sector innovation needs to be supported by public goods. Digital technology is transforming the financial industry, changing the way payments, savings, borrowing, and investment services are provided and who provides them. Fintech and Big Tech companies now compete with banks and other incumbents across a range of markets. Meanwhile, digital currencies promise to transform the heart of finance: money itself. But just how much has technology advanced financial inclusion, and how should policymakers adapt to this brave new world? The answer: Read the full 1800-piece here, download the PDF, or continue reading the full article below for your convenience. IMF AROUND THE WORLD The Executive Board this week took action to temporarily extend measures that have raised the amount of financing countries can receive under the IMF's emergency lending instruments, the General Resources Account, and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust. The Board also concluded Article IV economic assessments of Samoa, Bahrain, Peru, Colombia, Sweden, and South Korea.  The Board also completed the combined second through fifth reviews of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan, allowing for an immediate purchase equivalent to about $500 million for budget support. The board also reviewed actions and data revisions Pakistan will take after a noncomplying purchase and a breach of obligations. For Somalia, the Board granted additional interim assistance to the east African country under the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative in an amount of about $0.97 million. This interim assistance will cover Somalia’s debt service obligations to the Fund for the period March 25, 2021 through March 24, 2022. Barbados has implemented the recommendations of the IMF’s Enhanced General Data Dissemination System (e-GDDS) by publishing essential data through the National Summary Data Page (NSDP). IMF staff this week concluded an Article IV mission with the Marshall Islands and issued a concluding statement for an Article IV mission to Slovenia. The IMF mission team to Argentina also issued a statement after discussions with Argentina’s Economy Minister Martin Guzmán and his team this week on an economic plan that could be backed by a new IMF-supported program. IMF LENDING Check out our global policy tracker to help our member countries be more aware of the experiences of others in combating COVID-19. We are also regularly updating our lending tracker, which visualizes the latest emergency financial assistance and debt relief to member countries approved by the IMF’s Executive Board. To date, 80 countries have been approved for emergency financing, totaling over US$32 billion. Looking for our Q&A about the IMF's response to COVID-19? Click here. We are also continually producing a special series of notes—more than 50 to date—by IMF experts to help members address the economic effects of COVID-19 on a range of topics including fiscal, legal, statistical, tax and more. HAVE YOUR SAY Thank you again very much for your interest in the Weekend Read. We really appreciate your time. If you have any questions, comments or feedback of any kind, please do write me a note. Sincerely, Adam Behsudi Deputy Editor, IMF Weekend Read abehsudi@IMF.org