GAIN reports

 

The following GAIN reports were released on March 28, 2024. _______   China: Climate Reports Highlight Agriculture  On December 29, 2023, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) submitted two major reports related to climate change to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): the Fourth National Communication on Climate Change (NC4) and the Third Biennial Update Report on Climate Change (BUR3). The reports summarize PRC climate change policy, actions, impacts, and progress achieved during the 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period (2016-2020). Substantial sections of the reports focus on agriculture and include climate related information dating back to 2017 and 2018. Guatemala: Grain and Feed Annual Guatemala continues to be a net importer of both yellow corn and rice. Corn area and production in MY2024/2025 are forecast to slightly increase to keep up with increased consumption for both food and feed; the avian sector keeps steady growth at 3-4 percent annually. Rice is forecast to increase 4 per cent and harvest area and production have been revised up based on the latest survey carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture to include subsistence farming in addition to the commercial production. Fertilization costs have decreased, except for urea, but labor costs continue increasing due to growing migration. The United States loses market share in both grains due to more competitive prices in South America, via WTO quota openings by the Ministry of Economy. Vietnam: Oilseeds and Products Annual Vietnam’s economy is on the path to recovery. Post revises Vietnam’s MY2022/23 soybean meal consumption down to 5.65 MMT due to lower aquaculture feed consumption and forecasts an increase to 5.85 MMT in MY 2023/24. Post forecasts an increase in soybean imports in both MY2023/24 and MY2024/25 for both crush and food use. Soybean meal imports are forecast to decrease to 4.7 MMT in MY 2024/25 due to higher domestic crush.   For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. The following GAIN reports were released on March 27, 2024. _______   Australia: Cotton and Products Annual Cotton production in Australia is set for a fourth successive year of high production in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, forecast at 5.5 million bales, which would be the third largest crop. The prospect of average rainfalls over the winter/spring period if realized would establish improved irrigation water availability for growers. This, compared to dry conditions in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales in the lead-up to planting the MY 2023/24 crop, which adversely affected the planted area. Despite this challenge in Australia’s biggest cotton producing region, the MY 2023/24 estimate is for a 5.0 million bale crop on the back of larger cotton crop planting in the more southern areas. Exports are forecast to reach 5.8 million bales in MY 2024/25, a drop of 200,000 bales from the MY 2023/24 estimate despite a higher crop forecast. This is due to the first nine months of trade in the forecast year being from the MY 2023/24 crop, the fourth highest following the MY 2022/23 record of 6.2 million bales. Colombia: Food Processing Ingredients Annual Colombia’s food and beverage industry decreased by two percent in 2023 due to stagnating economic growth. Demand for healthy food ingredients is growing in Colombia as a result of both shifting consumer preferences and new nutritional regulations for imported and locally produced products. The United States remains the top international supplier to Colombia’s food ingredients sector. Germany: Food Processing Ingredients Annual The food processing industry represents the fourth-largest industry in Germany. According to the Federation of German Food and Drink Industries (BEV) estimates, Germany produced $238.9 (€ 218.5) billion of processed food and drinks in 2022. That is an increase of 17 percent from 2021. However, the German food industry continues to struggle with subdued private consumer spending, inflation, and rising production costs. The look into the future is mixed. The following products have good sales potential on the German market: nuts, organic products, fish and seafood, highly processed ingredients, dried fruits, ready meals, and bakery products. Dominican Republic: Food Processing Ingredients Annual The Dominican Republic’s food processing industry totaled $2.91 billion for calendar year (CY) 2023 in activities categorized as “food industry,” while processed beverages and other products amounted to $2.68 billion over the same period. Meat and dairy processing, wheat milling, and bakery products continue to lead the food processing industry. Meanwhile, the United States remains a top supplier of meats, edible oils, fats, dairy products, wheat, and other key ingredients. As the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) moves steadily towards full implementation by January 1, 2025, there is potential for increased exports of these and other U.S. ingredients. Mexico: Food Processing Ingredients Annual In 2023, Mexico imported $51 billion of food ingredient products, of which 63 percent were sourced from the United States. Mexico’s food processing industry is the second largest in Latin America, behind Brazil, making Mexico a top destination for U.S. food ingredients. Processed meat, dairy, and baking ingredients including confectionary, sweeteners, and flour, make up the largest sectors within Mexico’s food processing industry. Additionally, healthier eating and wellbeing continues as a growing trend, paving the way for export opportunities of plant-based products rich in proteins, added vitamins, minerals, and biotics. Senegal: Cotton and Products Annual The regional harvested area for Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 is forecast to rise 17 percent at 1.38 million hectares (MHA) compared to the previous year based on expectations of good farm gate prices and improved security and stability in many cotton-growing areas. MY 2024/25 production is forecast up 17 percent at 2.52 million bales based on increase access to fertilizer and urea, a good weather conditions, and less pest pressure. Post estimates exports to increase 14 percent at 2.47 million bales based on greater available supply. MY 2023/24 area is estimated to drop four percent due to insecurity in Burkina Faso that prevented farmers from accessing their lands and low availability of inputs. However, MY 2023/24 cotton production is estimated at 2.14 million bales, a 38 percent jump from the previous year based on better pest management to counter jassid infestations. MY 2023/24 exports are estimated at 2.17 million bales, up 43 percent from the previous year.   For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. REMINDER: USDA Under Secretary Taylor to Hold Media Call to Recap South Korea Trade Mission WASHINGTON, March 28, 2024 – U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis M. Taylor will join principals from the Arkansas, California, Indiana, and North Dakota state departments of agriculture for a media teleconference on Mon., April 1, at 3 p.m. EDT, to highlight the USDA agribusiness trade mission,  currently underway in South Korea. Reporters interested in participating must RSVP to press-fas@usda.gov for dial-in instructions by Noon tomorrow, March 29. # USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender. Ginning up a Market for U.S. Cotton in Bangladesh For almost 50 years, Bangladesh required U.S. cotton be fumigated because of concerns about the boll weevil. Collaboration between USDA agencies and the Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture resulted in amended import requirements, exempting the United States from the list of countries required to fumigate cotton upon arrival. This is a significant trade win for American cotton as Bangladesh is the fifth-largest export market for U.S. cotton, with export values exceeding $339 million in 2023. This decision gins up a new chapter for U.S. cotton growers to expand their market access to Bangladesh. As one of the world’s top import markets for cotton, Bangladesh is a growth market with great potential for American cotton for years to come.  Please click here to read more>> The following GAIN reports were released on March 26, 2024. _______   European Union: EU Commission Proposes Common Agricultural Policy Revisions Following Farmer Protests Following weeks of farmer protests across the European Union, the European Commission published a legislative proposal to amend certain provisions of the Common Agricultural Policy. Pakistan: Cotton and Products Annual With expectations for no change in area, and assuming average yields, cotton production is forecast to decline in 2024/25. Given prospects for an increase in cotton textile exports, domestic use is forecast to increase in 2024/25. As a result of the expected lower domestic production and higher domestic use, imports are forecast to increase marginally during 2024/25. High energy and finance costs will continue to constrain the textile sector’s growth through 2024/25. Panama: Food Processing Ingredients Annual This report provides information to U.S. exporters of agricultural and related products on how to do business with the Food Processing industry in Panama. It is primarily a service – based economy, but food processing is one of its top industries. These include dairy processors, meat, poultry, fishery, fruits, beverages and spirits, bakery, snacks among others. Opportunities for U.S. – origin ingredient suppliers are in demand as the Panamanian industry is benefiting from the latest trends of substitute plant-based alternatives and consumer dietary preferences for processed food from whole grains, legumes (beans, peas, lentils), vegetables, fruits, seeds, and nuts.   For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. The following GAIN reports were released on March 25, 2024. _______   China: 47 National Food Safety Standards Released On March 12, 2024, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) National Health Commission (NHC) and State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) jointly published an Announcement on releasing 47 new or updated National Food Safety Standards (known as Guo Jia Biao Zhun, or GB Standards) and 6 amendments sheets. The new or updated GB standards cover food additives, nutritional fortification substances, milk powder, food contact materials, microbial testing methods, and testing for arsenic and nickel. This report provides an unofficial translation of the Announcement. Stakeholders should conduct their own review of the regulations. India: Walks like a Duck and Quacks like a Duck - We Have US Grade A Duck in India On February 22, 2024, India’s Ministry of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying/Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, issued Office Memorandum File No. L-110109(3)/1/2016-Trade (E-2625) outlining the parameters for premium frozen duck meat for import into India. On March 6, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce and of Industry/Department of Commerce - Directorate General of Foreign Trade, authorized imports of premium frozen duck meat for into India under the harmonized tariff system (HS) codes 0207.4200 and 0207.4500. Concurrently, on March 6, 2024, the Ministry of Finance/Department of Revenue notified the lowering of import duties for premium frozen duck meat and the governing conditions for imports via the Notification No. 13/2024-Customs. Exports of U.S.-origin premium frozen duck meat to India are foreseen to accelerate in the short-to-mid-term. Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka Extends Implementation of Food Trans - Fats Regulation 2022 by One Year The Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka’s (Sri Lanka) Ministry of Health extended the implementation effective date of the Food (Trans Fat) Regulations (2022) from January 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025. The Sri Lankan government notified the extension in the Gazette of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka – Extraordinary (official gazette) on December 27, 2023.   For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. USDA Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Under Secretary Taylor Launches Trade Mission in South Korea SEOUL, South Korea, March 25, 2024 – The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Alexis M. Taylor arrived in Seoul today to launch an agribusiness trade mission. Taylor leads a delegation comprised of officials from 48 agribusiness and farm organizations and five state departments of agriculture seeking to develop strong ties with Korean partners and introduce their diverse products to Korean consumers. Korea and the United States celebrated the 10th anniversary of the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement in 2022. This agreement supports the bilateral trade relationship that accounted for South Korea ranking as the United States’ fifth largest market for agricultural and related products in 2023, with more than $8 billion in exports. “South Korean consumers appreciate the quality and reliability of U.S. food and agricultural products. I’m excited to introduce the U.S. companies and their diverse lineup of products to this important market,” said Taylor. “This week provides a great opportunity to develop the partnerships and foster the collaboration that are critical to facilitating the long-term relationships that will form the basis for expanding U.S.-South Korea trade. I’m confident the engagements planned here in Seoul will deliver mutually beneficial results.” This week, local staff from FAS Seoul will host business meetings between U.S. trade mission delegates and Korean companies looking to import American food and farm products. The trade mission itinerary also includes bilateral meetings with Korean industry and government officials and retail promotions featuring U.S. products. MEDIA AVAILABILITY Under Secretary Taylor will join principals from the Arkansas, California, Indiana, and North Dakota state departments of agriculture for a media teleconference on Mon., April 1, at 3 p.m. EDT. Reporters interested in participating should RSVP by emailing press-fas@usda.gov for dial-in instructions by COB, Wednesday, March 27. ### USDA is an equal opportunity provider, employer, and lender. The following GAIN reports were released on March 21, 2024. _______   Indonesia: Indonesia Accredits Five US Halal Certifying Bodies On March 1, the Government of Indonesia’s Halal Product Assurance Agency (BPJPH) listed five U.S. halal certifying bodies (HCBs) on its website as fully accredited to issue halal certificates for U.S. products destined for the Indonesian market. The accreditation of these five HCBs is vital to providing U.S. suppliers with as many halal certification service providers as possible before enforcement of Indonesia’s mandatory halal certification law for most food and beverage products begins on October 17, 2024. U.S. producers seeking to send halal-eligible products to Indonesia should apply for halal certification either directly with the Indonesian government or through an accredited U.S. HCB. Mandatory halal certification does not apply to non-eligible products (i.e., haram/forbidden products such as those containing pork, alcohol, and other forbidden ingredients). Peru: Grain and Feed Annual Wheat imports in marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 are forecast at 2 million metric tons (MMT). Canada led the Peruvian wheat market in calendar year (CY) 2023 with 72 percent market share. Peru’s corn imports in MY 2024/2025 are forecast at 3.45 MMT, an increase of two percent from the previous year. Argentina led the Peruvian corn market in CY 2023, accounting for 83 percent of market share. Local corn production only accounts for a third of demand and Peruvian producers cannot utilize genetically-modified seed technology, which diminishes their ability to improve yields. Rice imports in MY 2024/2025 are forecast at 100,000 metric tons. Uruguay was the main rice supplier to Peru in CY 2023, accounting for 52 percent of market share. South Korea: Oilseeds and Products Annual Breaking with historical practice, Korean soybean crushers began operating below full capacity in mid-2023 and are forecast to further reduce crush volume into marketing year (MY) 2024/25. Soybean imports are forecast to recover slightly from MY 2023/24, but will still remain below average levels on sluggish crushing demand. Post forecasts MY 2024/25 soybean production will increase to 142,000 MT, a 10-year high, on increased planted area in response to subsidies for substituting away from rice planting. Palm oil will continue as Korea’s primary vegetable oil, especially to supply growing instant noodle exports and biofuel production. Soybean meal is expected to remain the dominant protein source in Korea’s compound feed production, though new climate policies to reduce protein levels in feed have somewhat lowered consumption. Competitively priced U.S. soybean meal increased market share to 4 percent in MY 2022/23 and has potential to continue growing in popularity. Thailand: Rice Price - Weekly Rice export prices dropped 2-3 percent as the Thai baht weakened and new MY 2023/24 off-season rice supplies entered the market. United Arab Emirates: Poultry and Products Annual UAE chicken meat imports are forecast to increase in 2024 as domestic production expansion is unable to fulfill rising demand. Brazil’s market share is expected to continue to grow. Production is forecast to rise - spurred by improved margins on higher retail prices and lower feed prices. Consumption is forecast higher in 2024 on continuing post-COVID economic recovery.   For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/. The following GAIN reports were released on March 20, 2024. _______   Canada: Livestock and Products Semi-Annual The Canadian cattle herd continues its sustained contraction in 2024. A smaller beef cow inventory will see the 2024 calf crop decline. Improved cattle prices may signal improved heifer retention if moisture conditions and pastures improve, or producers could see this as an opportune time to maximize exiting the industry during a time of better returns. Live cattle imports and imports of U.S. feeder cattle will decline as tightening supplies in the United States increase competition for those animals. Imports of ground beef and lower cost product from Australia and South America will be supported by price-conscious Canadian consumers. The Canadian swine herd is forecast to continue its contraction through 2024. Reductions in slaughter capacity in Eastern Canada will see slaughter reduced and breeding herd reductions in that part of the country. Canadian demand for pork will sustain 2024 imports at 2023 levels while Canada will look to an improved export performance for pork in 2024. China: American Food and Agriculture Pavilion Makes Strong Debut at CIIE The China International Import Expo (CIIE) is a trade-focused exposition hosted by the People's Republic of China (PRC) Ministry of Commerce and the Shanghai Municipal Government. This expo aims to boost the consumption of imported products. Given the high-profile endorsement by the PRC government, the event attracts extensive participation from international companies across various sectors. The FAS Agricultural Trade Office at the U.S. Consulate Shanghai (ATO Shanghai), together with the American Chamber of Commerce Shanghai, hosted the inaugural American Food and Agriculture Pavilion with 17 U.S. agricultural companies and trade organizations. Our participation garnered substantial media attention and successfully facilitated the signing of purchase deals exceeding $500 million through a series of business matchmaking sessions. China: Oilseeds and Products Annual Soybean imports for marketing year (MY) 24/25 are forecast to reach 103 million metric tons (MMT). Increased soybean meal (SBM) inclusion rates due to competitive prices, stable demand in the poultry sector, and growing demand in aquaculture is expected to offset weaker demand in the swine sector due to forecast declining production in MY 23/24 and MY 24/25. Lower domestic prices, high carry-in from MY 23/24 production, and comparatively better margins for corn are expected to lower soybean planted area and production in MY 24/25. Post has revised imports and crush data for MY 22/23 to reflect historical adjustments made in the March 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. MY 23/24 and MY 24/25 imports and crush are revised based on evaluation of major exporters’ shipments to China versus General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC) reported imports and in-country data sources. China: National Standard on Natural Casings The PRC National Standard (Guo Jia Biao Zhun, or 'GB') for Natural Casings - GB/T7740-2022 was issued on October 12, 2022, and implemented on May 1, 2023. This Standard is applicable to all natural casings. Compared with GB/T 7740-2006, the major change is that GB/T7740-2022 adds requirements for the acceptance and processing of imported casing raw materials. This report contains an unofficial English translation of the Standard. China: NEA Announcement of Biodiesel Promotion Pilot Programs From September 26 to 27, 2023, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) National Energy Administration (NEA) organized a meeting on pilot programs for biodiesel promotion and application in Shanghai to learn relevant experience and practices, exchange and analyze the development of the country’s biodiesel industry, and study and deploy next steps. This report summarizes the meeting takeaways and provides an unofficial translation of NEA's "Notice on Organizing Pilot Demonstrations for the Promotion and Application of Biodiesel" from November 13, 2024. China: New Genetically Modified Corn and Soybean Variety Registration List Published On March 19, 2024, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) National Crop Variety Registration Committee (CNCVRC) published a second variety registration list for genetically modified (GM) corn and soybeans. The list includes 27 GM corn varieties and three GM soybean varieties and is open for public comment for 30 days, or until April 17, 2024. The new list follows the PRC’s initial publication of a variety registration list for GM corn and soybeans in October 2023. Once finalized, the newly listed GM corn and soybean varieties will be eligible for planting in approved areas. This report provides an unofficial translation of CNCVRC’s announcement, the list of GM corn and soybean varieties that have passed preliminary review, and the yield performance of these varieties. China: NHC Approves New Food Materials and Additives including GMM Derived Enzymes On March 13, 2024, the National Health Commission (NHC) announced approval of 23 new food materials and additives, of which three are products derived from Genetically Modified Microorganisms (GMMs). This report provides a summary of the newly approved food materials and additives from the announcement. Colombia: Grain and Feed Annual In market year (MY) 2024/2025, Colombia’s corn production is forecast to decrease to 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) influenced by lower domestic corn prices and dissuading farmers from expanding corn cultivation. Conversely, rice production is anticipated to slightly increase to 1.9 MMT milled rice equivalent (MRE) driven by yield recovery, as harvested area remains unchanged due to stabilized prices. With the forecast of low international prices, U.S. corn market share in Colombia will likely remain high, benefiting from trade preferences outlined in the U.S. Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. Rice imports are forecast to increase given competitive international prices and no major increases in local production, with the United States as the main supplier. Wheat imports are projected to rebound in line with moderate economic growth expectations and consumption recovery. Competition with Canada continues to be the most significant challenge to U.S. wheat market share in Colombia. Ghana: Ghana Approves Commercialization of 14 New GE Products Ghana continues to demonstrate its conviction that proven science-based advanced technologies remain viable options in the global efforts to achieve food security in the face of various production constraints like climate change. In line with this belief, Ghana’s National Biosafety Authority (NBA) has approved 14 new biotechnology products for commercialization. These are comprised of eight corn and six soybean events. Indonesia: Oilseeds and Products Annual Indonesia palm oil production is forecast to rise marginally to 47 million metric tons (MMT) in 2024/25 on expected recovery from extreme weather in 2023. The mandatory biodiesel program continues to absorb significant domestic palm oil consumption, limiting exportable volumes. Feed industry growth pushed soybean meal use up to 5.8 MMT in 2024/25. Japan: Grain and Feed Annual FAS/Tokyo forecasts an increase in corn imports and consumption in MY2023/24 and MY2024/25 due to softening global prices and the rebound of the layer population following the recovery of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza outbreaks. Post projects lower MY2023/24 wheat and barley imports based on an anticipated shift in feed demand to corn, while MY2024/25 wheat and barley imports are projected to remain stable. FAS/Tokyo projects a decrease in rice consumption in MY2023/24 and MY2024/25 based on demographic trends and lower demand for feed. Post lowered Japan’s MY2023/24 rice production as extreme heat and drought lowered yields and quality, resulting in increased prices. Kenya: Grain and Feed Annual FAS Nairobi forecasts Kenya's corn production will remain unchanged year-on-year in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 at 3.7 million metric tons (MT) due to similar growing conditions, area harvested, and input availability. MY 2024/25 wheat imports are anticipated to increase 7.5 percent year-on-year to 2.15 million MT as demand for wheat products continues to grow alongside rising disposable incomes. Post forecasts MY 2024/25 rice production will increase to 180,000 MT due to increases in area harvested associated with the Thiba dam. Mexico: Livestock and Products Semi-annual Lower feed prices are expected to boost producer profits in 2024, thereby increasing domestic beef and pork production. Beef imports are forecast to decrease, and pork imports are expected to remain nearly flat. Higher beef prices in 2024 are expected to constrain beef consumption to a marginal increase and lead to higher pork consumption as consumers shift from beef to relatively less expensive pork. Factors such as increased support from social welfare programs, less headline inflation, increased minimum wages, and hotel, restaurant, and institution (HRI) sector demand support beef and pork consumption. New Zealand: Livestock and Products Semi-Annual Following a gradual decline in the national cattle herd over the previous years, breeding cow numbers for beef and dairy are looking to stabilize in 2024. At the end of 2023, a new national coalition government was elected. Prior to the election, the main parties advocated policies to reduce the restrictive pressures on farming operations and push back the pricing of agricultural emissions to 2030. The financial strain on farmers creates the most significant non-climatic challenge in the upcoming year. The livestock sector faces challenges - the narrowing or loss of margins caused by high on-farm inflation, reduced cash flow, and servicing of debt with rising interest rates. FAS/Wellington forecast 2024 beef and veal production will slightly exceed the previous year. The 2023 Market Year closed with New Zealand exporting more beef and veal in one year than ever before, with the second-largest year for production since 2021.   For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.