IMF MENA, Update

 

Read this newsletter in Arabic / يمكنك قراءة النسخة العربية من خلال هذا الرابط Dear maria, Welcome to our latest issue of the MENA Update. Recent events in the region remind us that we live in an uncertain and shock-prone world. The conflict in Israel and Gaza is causing immense human suffering with consequences for the region’s economies. You can read our latest thinking on the conflict’s potential regional economic impact in our recent blog. In this edition, I’ll share all the highlights from the recent Annual Meetings in Marrakech, including the release of our latest Regional Economic Outlook and key events like the Managing Director’s dialogue with young Arab leaders, and some thoughts from COP28 in Dubai. Sincerely, Jihad Azour Director | IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department Annual Meetings Return to Arab World After several postponements due to the global pandemic, the World Bank-IMF Annual Meetings were held in Marrakech, Morocco, from October 9-15, 2023. The event marked the return of the Meetings to the Arab world after 20 years and to the African continent after 50 years. The Annual Meetings were a resounding success and followed a series of events that IMF staff had organized in the months leading up to the Meetings. Highlights included the launch of our book Morocco’s Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth, the Managing Director’s dialogue with Arab youth, and the launch of our latest Regional Economic Outlook, among many others (read more about these events in the following sections). At the meetings, and together with the World Bank President Ajay Banga, the Moroccan Minister of Economy and Finance Nadia Fettah, and Bank Al‑Maghrib Governor Abdellatif Jouahri, the Managing Director issued the Marrakech Principles for Global Cooperation. This joint statement lays out a broad framework for harnessing multilateralism for the benefit of all. The Managing Director also issued a Call for Action on Inclusive Growth in MENA to close the gap between the growth models of the past and growth engines of the future. Book Launch: Morocco’s Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth   At the launch of our new book, Morocco’s Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth, the Managing Director was joined by Morocco’s Finance Minister, Nadia Fettah, and Central Bank Governor, Abdellatif Jouahri. The event showcased Morocco’s experience, its lessons for other countries, and its potential for private sector involvement—a key pillar of the country’s new model of development. You can watch the full event here and download the book here.  Dialogue with Tomorrow’s Leaders With more than 100 million Arab youth expected to reach working age in the next 10 years, the Managing Director and I met with a group of outstanding young Arabs to discuss the obstacles they face and how today’s leaders can overcome them. The panelists spoke about the importance of ensuring access to finance, of removing barriers to women’s participation in the labor force, of carrying out data-driven policymaking, and of leveraging the lessons of the past decade to turn the region’s long-standing aspirations into goals. You can watch the full conversation here.   Seizing Opportunities for Prosperity  On the sidelines of the Annual Meetings and as part of the Governor Talks interview series, I had a fireside chat with H.E. Ali Bin Ahmed Al Kuwari, Qatar’s Minister of Finance. We discussed how Qatar is managing its budget while creating space for economic diversification. We also spoke about Qatar’s role in international development financing and how it is contributing to multilateral cooperation. The full conversation can be found here.   In Pursuit of Stronger Growth and Resilience   To highlight the Annual Meetings’ return to the African continent after 50 years, we launched a special issue on Africa’s economic outlook in collaboration with the IMF’s Africa Department. Recent events—including the devastating earthquake in Morocco, severe floods in Libya, and the impact of Cyclone Freddy in Malawi—have underscored the continent’s ongoing vulnerability to natural disasters and the need to build resilience. At the launch event, my colleague Abebe Aemro Selassie, the Director of the African Department at the IMF, joined me on stage and we discussed the economic developments on the continent. You can watch the press briefing here. We also spoke with IMF Today on resetting Africa’s narrative and the economic opportunities the continent has to offer.   Middle East and North Africa’s Economic Outlook  Our latest Regional Economic Outlook (REO) shows that growth in the Middle East and North Africa was slowing even before the conflict in Gaza, reflecting the combined effect of tighter policies, oil production cuts, and domestic challenges. Our October REO projected growth of 2 percent this year before accelerating to 3.4 percent in 2024.  We are revising our forecasts to incorporate the impact of the crisis and plan to release updated figures in late January. You can download the full report or watch this short video. You can also watch the report launch, featuring a distinguished panel of speakers, here, and the press briefing here. IMF-Middle East Institute Panel: Structural Reforms to Reinvigorate Growth Promoting inclusive growth will require substantial reforms to close the gap between the development model of the past and what is needed going forward. Together with the Middle East Institute, we hosted a panel discussion in Marrakech on Chapter 2 of our REO, which explores reforms to build resilience and prosperity. In a novel analysis for the region, our research shows that most structural reforms help lift output, with the impact growing over time. Governance reforms—particularly, enhancing the rule of law and government effectiveness—are especially important and can also generate positive output effects during periods of weak growth or limited policy space. Indeed, implementing a package of reforms that includes governance, external sector, and regulatory reforms could increase output by almost 10 percent over 5 years.  You can read the full analysis here and watch the full launch event here. IMF’s Institutional Goals at COP28 The Managing Director and I attended COP28 in Dubai to discuss the IMF’s climate change institutional goals with our key partners and stakeholders. At the conference, the MD stressed that emerging and developing countries need trillions of dollars in investment to tackle climate change. In her fireside chat with the President of the World Bank Group, Ajay Banga, she said that mobilizing these resources requires coordinated action by international financial institutions, donors, governments, and the private sector. The MD also joined the Director-General of the World Trade Organization, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, and Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, to discuss green innovation and technology diffusion for net zero. In a blog published ahead of COP28, I highlighted how governments in the MENA region can enhance their climate objectives in both adapting to climate change and reducing their contribution to global warming. Still on the topic of climate, I recommend that read our latest research on the effects of climate change on the region. Our analysis shows that the existing global commitments would only result in an 11 percent reduction in emissions by the end of this decade, falling well short of the 25 to 50 percent required to achieve the goals set by the Paris Agreement. Recent studies conducted by the IMF on adaptation and mitigation suggest that an annual investment of up to 4 percent of GDP is necessary to boost climate resilience and achieve 2030 emissions reduction targets. Other recent work shows that the average economic losses for fragile and conflict-affected states are four times worse than when a storm, drought, or flood hit other countries. At another milestone Marrakech 2023 event on June 11, MCD and the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department launched a new departmental paper analyzing the sources and management of fiscal risks. At a high-level event in Cairo, organized with the Egyptian Ministry of Finance and the Economic Research Forum, Deputy Managing Director Antoinette M. Sayeh was joined by Mohamed Maait, Egypt’s Minister of Finance; Mohamad Al-ississ, Jordan’s Minister of Finance; Adbulrahman Al-Hamidy, Director General of the Arab Monetary Fund; and Abla Abdel-Latif, Executive Director of the Egyptian Center of Economic Studies. You can access the video here, the blog here, and the full paper, Managing Fiscal Risks in the Middle East and North Africa, here. Country Developments Jordan On November 9, IMF staff and the Jordanian authorities reached a staff-level agreement on a program of economic and structural reforms supported by a new 4-year Extended Fund Facility arrangement in the amount of about $1.2 billion. Mauritania In late October, an IMF mission held discussions on the first review of the program supported by the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility arrangements, approved by the IMF Executive Board on January 25, 2023, for a total amount of SDR 64.40 million (approximately $86.9 million) over 42 months and a new program supported by the Resilience and Sustainability Facility) for a total amount of SDR 193.2 million (approximately US$ 253.1 million). Morocco On September 28, the IMF’s Executive Board approved an 18-month arrangement for Morocco under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility in an amount equivalent to SDR 1 billion (about $1.3 billion, equivalent to 112 percent of quota). That’s it for this issue of the MENA newsletter. Stay tuned for more content as we get closer to the Spring Meetings in April. For now, you can check out our website and follow us on X or Facebook for the most up-to-date developments. ***   We Want To Hear From You! Click here to let us know what you think of our monthly MENA update.     Capacity Building in MENA: The Fund's Institute for Capacity Development is currently offering a course on energy subsidies, their costs, and the design of a successful reform based on country case studies. If you are interested in learning more about energy subsidy reform, enroll now through this link.   If interested in learning about our capacity development work in the region, visit The Middle East Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) and The International Monetary Fund’s Middle East Center for Economics and Finance (IMF-CEF) web pages.     Want to work at the IMF? The IMF offers career opportunities in a variety of fields, including economics, information technology, and finance. You can find out more and explore current vacancies here.

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