The following GAIN reports were released on May 4, 2022.
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China: Sugar Annual
Total sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October - September) is forecast at 10 MMT, up 400,000 MT from the revised MY 2021/22 estimate. MY 2021/22 estimates for production, trade and consumption are all revised downward. The production side is affected primarily by abnormal weather, COVID impacts, and crop competition. MY 2021/22 cane sugar production is revised to 8.7 MMT, down 500,000 MT from the official estimate. MY 2021/22 beet sugar production is revised to 900,000 MT, down 200,000 MT from the official estimate. High world prices and COVID impacts will affect demand in MY 2021/22.
India: The Australia-India Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement - Raises Challenges for US-India Food and Agricultural Products Trade
The Australia-India Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (AI-ECTA) (signed on April 2, 2022) is a partnership agreement that aims to boost bilateral trade and investment between the two Indo-Pacific countries. The agreement must now be approved by Australia’s and India’s parliaments, but little opposition is expected for the ratification agreement in either country. Through its phased-in tariff reductions, the AI-ECTA will raise challenges for U.S. food and agricultural products in the Indian market. Commodity areas of concern include wines and spirits, cotton, pulses and beans, forest products, and tree nuts (almonds and pistachios). At the same time, India is seeking to establish a number of additional free trade agreements and or comprehensive economic partnership agreements - including with the United Kingdom, Canada, and Israel, among others.
Mexico: Sugar Annual
Mexico sugar production is forecasted at 6.3 million metric tons raw value (MMT-RV) for MY 2022/2023 (October-September), marginally higher than the previous year, due to better weather conditions, better availability of water in reservoirs, and expected late summer rains that may improve cane yields. The National Committee for the Sustainable Development of Sugar Cane (CONADESUCA) has not yet published an official MY 2022/23 forecast. The MY 2022/2023 sugar export forecast is 1.53 MMT-RV, on the expectation of continued demand in the United States, but moderate growth in exports to other world markets due to sustained high domestic prices.
Vietnam: Rice Trade - Monthly
This report provides trade data on Vietnam's monthly rice exports by grade and destination and weekly export quotes for rice by grade.
El Salvador: Sugar Annual
Sugar production in marketing year (MY) 22 is estimated at 785,000 metric tons (MT), while production for MY21 has decreased to 780,000. Improving international prices have eased the financial pressure exerted by the COVID-19 pandemic on the sugar sector. However, inflationary concerns due to the Ukrainian crisis has led the Government of El Salvador (GOES) to include sugar in a basket of products with a reduction to zero percent import duty for a period of one year.
Chile: Grain and Feed Annual
For marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post forecasts wheat area harvested will increase by 5.3 percent and production will total 1.44 million metric tons (MMT) as a response to high wheat prices. Post estimates MY2022/23 wheat imports to decrease to 1.45 MMT due to higher domestic production, higher wheat price, and a strong U.S. dollar. For MY2022/23, Post forecasts 830,000 metric tons (MT) of corn production, a 2.5 percent increase over MY2021/22. Corn area harvested will total 74,000 hectares (ha) and yields will decrease slightly due to persistent droughts. Total consumption will reach 3.17 MMT and imports are projected to remain flat at 2.350 MMT to cover for poultry and pork feed consumption.
Serbia: Grain and Feed Annual
Serbia is closely following the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, especially because 80 percent of Serbia’s grain exports travel to the world via Black Sea ports. On March 10, Serbia banned exports of food products important for food stability. Specifically, Serbia banned exports of wheat, wheat flour, rye, corn, cornmeal, and sunflower oil all considered important to the nation’s food stability. On March 24, Serbia amended the decree to allow the export of wheat and corn but only as per contracts signed before original the export ban. The advantage for exports of wheat and corn will be given to the members of the Open Balkan Initiative (Albania and North Macedonia). Overall, MY2021/22 wheat production is estimated to be a record high of 3 MMT, and with domestic consumption of approximately 1.7 MMT, Serbia is estimated to have 1.6 MMT of wheat available for export. In MY2021/22, corn production was around 6 MMT that can meet domestic demand (4.6 MMT) and allow for 1.6 MMT of corn exports.
China: SAMR 2022 Legislative Plan
On April 27, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) released the 2022 Legislative Plan Work Plan. This report contains an unofficial translation of a select part of the Plan related to food and agriculture, including measures and laws concerning infant formula, foods for special medical purposes, geographic indications, and for the adoption of industry or international standards.
Hong Kong: Good Market Prospects for Organic Products in Hong Kong
The Hong Kong market is signaling good prospects for organic products. Over the last decade, sales of organic products from locally certified farms/plants have grown steadily at an average rate of about 10 percent. In 2021, U.S. fresh and chilled organic exports to Hong Kong dropped 11 percent to $10 million compared to 2020 but held above the five-year average. In addition, the slowdown in U.S. organic exports was far less than the 20 percent decline in conventional U.S. exports. While most U.S. agricultural exports faced shipping logistics challenges last year, the smaller contraction in U.S. exports of organic products reflects the growing popularity of these products in Hong Kong. The city remains the seventh largest destination for U.S. organic exports. A recent survey shows that vegetables and fruits were the most preferred organic products among Hong Kong consumers. Hong Kong allows the use of foreign organic logos and allows the sale of products carrying the USDA organic seal.
Malaysia: Oilseeds and Products Annual
Post forecasts Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) production in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 at 18.5 million metric tons (MT), an increase of 646,000 MT compared to the previous year. This increase is lower than the USDA official estimate due to the ongoing shortage of manual labor in the sector. MY 2022/23 CPO production is forecast at 19.5 million MT. This robust increase (compared to the previous year) is based on the assumption that the issue of foreign labor will be resolved in time for the 2022/23 marketing year.
New Zealand: Fresh Deciduous Fruit Semi-annual
New Zealand’s apple production and exports are forecast to rise in marketing year 2021/22 (January 2022-December 2022), but remain far below levels previously expected as a result of continued shortages of harvest labor. The combination of reduced labor due to international border closures, as well as a slowdown in picking and packing because of COVID-19 outbreaks amongst staff, is resulting in some lower-value apple orchard blocks not being harvested. Also, strong rainfall in the Hawke’s Bay delayed the start of harvesting, and there is not expected to be sufficient labor to catch up, which will also put pressure on production and export numbers. The number of apples for processing is also anticipated to remain relatively reduced, as companies are prioritizing their limited labor to pick those apples that are export-quality and of highest value.
Taiwan: Taiwan Thirsts for High-end Whiskey
In 2021, Taiwan imports of whiskey reached $553 USD million, up 19 percent compared to 2020. The United States ranks as the third largest supplier of imported whiskey with two percent market share, far behind United Kingdom (i.e. Scotland, 92 percent) and Japan (four percent). In 2021, Taiwan imported approximately 430,000 liters of whiskey from the United States ($3.9 USD million), with Jack Daniel’s and Jim Beam leading the pack. U.S. bourbon has great potential in this market but requires an aggressive, long-term campaign push to make an impact against the popular single malt Scotch.
