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The RundownNews and analysis from AEI's Foreign and Defense Policy team. |
Scholar Insight |
China has launched its largest-ever military exercises around Taiwan, simulating a blockade and increasing tensions in the region. |
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Is Taiwan prepared to withstand sustained pressure from China? Will Congress provide additional support for Taiwan in the absence of strong support from the White House?
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We have seen this movie before. And if box office records are any indication, we’ll keep seeing it in 2026 and 2027.
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US Foreign Policy |
In the News |
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President Trump says the US will “run Venezuela” after US forces captured President Nicolás Maduro in connection with an indictment on drugs and weapons charges. |
Op-Ed Marc A. Thiessen | The Washington Post As 2025 ends, Marc A. Thiessen reflects on the highs and lows of Trump’s second term. Among his accomplishments, Trump struck a trade deal imposing a 15 percent tariff on most European exports to the US. Through his One Big Beautiful Bill, he added $156 billion to the defense budget. He also achieved notable peacemaking progress in India, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Armenia. Yet he faced setbacks: His 2026 budget proposed only $893 billion for defense, far below the $1 trillion he had promised. Additionally, he allowed the sale of advanced H200 Nvidia chips to China, a move seen as conceding to foreign pressure. Overall, Trump’s first year of his second term was a mix of bold achievements and some controversial decisions. |
Op-Ed Hal Brands | Bloomberg Opinion This weekend, the US took Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in connection with an indictment for alleged narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. Hal Brands explains that this operation serves as a stress test for the future of Venezuela’s democratic transition, highlighting both its fragility and the risk that the regime may endure despite the blow. Additionally, the raid does not conclude the great-power competition in the West: China still has significant interests in the region and remains positioned to adapt. Venezuela could provide a roadmap for China on how to succeed against Taiwan. America was able to blockade a hostile country and decapitate its leadership, a strategy potentially useful for Beijing. In a unipolar, post–Cold War era, the US didn’t have to worry about rivals emulating its tactics. Today, it does. |
Op-Ed Dalibor Rohac | Politico Europe The Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy offers a bleak portrait of Europe, warning of “civilizational erasure” driven by weak national identities and overreliance on the EU. Yet, as Dalibor Rohac argues, a Europe without the EU would not become a flourishing collection of sovereign states; it would more likely fracture as countries pursue narrow self-interest. The claim that the EU is a dead end for Europe reflects an ignorance of the continent’s history. Since the fall of the Roman Empire, Europe has managed unity and diversity through quasi-federal organizations. US support for regional integration emerged—and endures—to prevent another European war and strengthen American global power. Hostility toward the EU risks undoing those gains in ways Americans may soon regret. |
Op-Ed Leon Aron | The Spectator Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited President Trump at Mar-a-Lago to discuss ongoing negotiations over Trumps’ controversial 28-point peace plan for Ukraine. Leon Aron asserts that the plan fails to acknowledge Moscow’s culpability for the war, instead granting all parties full amnesty. Additionally, the plan requires Ukraine to surrender heavily fortified territory currently not occupied by Russia. The plan reveals how little Trump understands Ukrainian politics: He insists that Ukraine hold free and fair presidential elections—something the country has done consistently since 1999. Russia, by contrast, has not. By rewarding Russia, Trump risks repeating history: Almost invariably, aggressors and mass murderers become more aggressive and bloodthirsty when their assaults are not sanctioned. |
Defense |
In the News |
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The US military carried out a lethal strike on suspected drug boats in the Pacific, marking its 30th such action under Pentagon direction amid an ongoing counter-narcotics campaign. |
Blog Post John G. Ferrari | AEIdeas The Trump administration recently announced a new Navy battleship as part of the Golden Fleet initiative. John G. Ferrari argues that Trump is correct in that the Navy is underpowered for modern warfare—its size is insufficient, readiness is fragile, and the industrial base supporting it has atrophied. However, additional battleships, which are manpower-intensive and logistics-heavy, are not compatible with a world of cyberwarfare and space-based targeting. Instead, the government should prioritize numbers over prestige—a fleet that can perform matters more than a fleet that looks impressive. Additionally, the US should invest in unmanned systems, which reduce the consequences of loss. The Navy doesn’t need a return to the past but the discipline to build a fleet for the future. |
Article Mackenzie Eaglen et. al. | Center for Strategic and International Studies The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) revives classic maritime strategic thinking by linking sea power to US economic and industrial strength. Mackenzie Eaglen, Benjamin Jensen, and Henry H. Carroll note that managing strategic rivals such as China requires not only military capability but also robust financial and industrial resources. The NSS does just this by calling for control of sea lanes in the Western Hemisphere, denial of aggression across the first island chain, protection of global choke points from Hormuz to the Red Sea and Panama, and modernization of undersea, nuclear, and missile defense capabilities. Modernization of these capabilities is especially important for force readiness. The Navy and Marine Corps now must turn those broad directions into real formations, concepts, and actions that can serve at home and abroad. |
Middle East |
In the News |
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The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced plans to withdraw its forces from Yemen following a Saudi airstrike on a UAE-linked convoy, exposing deepening rifts among Gulf allies. |
Op-Ed Michael Rubin | Middle East Forum For over a century, strikes in Tehran’s bazaar have played a pivotal role in bringing down governments and heralding revolutionary change. Michael Rubin explains that growing dissatisfaction over economic hardship, war expenditures, and the lack of civil rights has eroded public trust in the Iranian regime. If the regime were to fall, Iranians would face difficult questions of transitional justice, such as how to balance accountability with forgiveness. A truth and reconciliation commission, modeled on such international examples as South Africa’s postapartheid commission, could document abuses and provide guidance on appropriate justice mechanisms. While Iran’s case will likely be more complicated, the consequences loom large—failure to address transitional justice early would increase the risk of insurgency in the future. |
Blog Post Daniel J. Samet | AEIdeas Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, nearly six decades after John F. Kennedy met Golda Meir in Palm Beach. Daniel J. Samet argues that this moment could mark the beginning of a new “special relationship” between the US and Israel. Israel is America’s strongest defense partner, and by working together, the two countries have been able to neutralize Iran, the United States’ principal adversary in the Middle East. Trump should consider further leveraging Israel’s power by having Israel play more of a leading role in the region, phasing out American military aid, and deepening cooperation in missile defense. Israeli strength is American strength, and the relationship has never been more important than it is today. |
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