Global fertility rates have been falling for decades and are reaching historically low levels. While the human population now exceeds 8 billion and may top 10 billion by 2050, the momentum of growth is dissipating because of declines in its most powerful driver—fertility. Over the next 25 years, East Asia, Europe, and Russia will experience significant population declines.
What this will mean for the future of humanity is rather ambiguous, David E. Bloom, Michael Kuhn, and Klaus Prettner write in F&D. On one hand, it could hinder economic progress as there will be fewer workers, scientists, and innovators. On the other hand, fewer children and smaller populations will mean less need for spending on housing and childcare, freeing resources for other uses such as research and development and adoption of advanced technologies.
Clearly, policymakers face crucial choices in managing the unfolding demographic trends. Responses may include measures to encourage fertility, adjustments to migration policies, expansion of education, and efforts to encourage innovation, the authors say.
“Together with advances in digitalization, automation, and artificial intelligence, the coming declines in population pose a significant challenge but also a potential opportunity for the world’s economies.”
