GAIN reports,update

 

The following GAIN reports were released on October 13, 2023. _______   Dominican Republic: Closure of Haiti Dominican Republic Border Impacts Food Security-Bilateral Trade and US Agricultural Exports  The closure of the Haiti-Dominican Republic border on September 14 due to a binational dispute over the construction of a canal on the Haitian side of the Dajabon River has exacerbated the food security situation in Haiti and caused mounting losses for Dominican farmers. In the North area of Haiti, Post sources confirm shortages and a spike in prices for food products such as eggs, poultry, wheat flour, and other items. On the Dominican side, as of October 3, Post estimates that Dominican farmers have incurred losses on exports to Haiti totaling approximately US$21 million. U.S. agricultural exports to the DR, including wheat, soybean and vegetable oils, soybean meal, corn, and pork and poultry meat, could also be impacted by this situation. While current actions from both governments do not offer promising prospects for a quick resolution of the conflict, interventions such as the upcoming UN-endorsed international security mission in Haiti, could provide opportunities for bilateral discussion to resume.   Japan: FAIRS Annual Country Report This report is an overview and update of Japan's food and agricultural import regulations and standards (FAIRS). For more information on Japan's certification requirements, see the FAIRS Export Certificate Report for Japan.   Thailand: Rice Price - Weekly Thailand’s export rice prices fell another 1-2 percent due mainly to the weakening of the Thai baht.   Vietnam: Grain and Feed Update In the first half of 2023, the Vietnam livestock and aquaculture industry faced numerous challenges which reduced feed demand including escalating input costs, African Swine Fever (ASF), market price volatility, weak demand, and intense competition from imported products. However, the livestock sector is anticipated to recover in the latter part of 2023, driven by the resurgence of the tourism industry and a gradual reduction in animal feed prices. Post revised Vietnam's feed consumption estimate in 2023 to 26.6 million tons (MMT) with a significant decline in aquafeed consumption. With corn prices lower than those of wheat and rice, leading to higher consumption and higher import of corn, Post revised MY 2022/23 corn consumption at 13.9 MMT and the MY 2022/23 import at 9.8 MMT. Post revised its estimate of MY 2022/23 wheat consumption down to 4.08 MMT, and its MY 2022/23 imports down to 4.11 MMT. Post revised MY 2022/2023 rice exports to 8 MMT due to the impact of India's rice export ban. The following GAIN reports were released on October 11, 2023. _______   Brazil: Oilseeds and Products Update Post increased its forecast for soybean planted area to 45.4 million hectares for 2022/23, up previously from 45.2 million hectares. In the 2022/23 season Brazil is expected to expand its planted area for soybeans as producers are switching from corn. Post forecasts a record harvest at 162 million metric tons (MMT), increased from 159 MMT previously with planting at the fastest rate on record. Post increased the export forecast in 2023/24 to 100.2 MMT, an increase from 99.1 MMT. Post revised imports downwards due to ample supplies, now forecast at 200,000 metric tons (MT) for 2023/24. For 2023/24, Post revised the forecast for soybeans destined for processing upward to a record of 55.8 MMT based on strong demand for Brazilian soybean products, especially oil.   Brazil: The Fertilize 4 Life Initiative - Combating Food Insecurity and Climate Change Dr. Jose Dubeux from the University of Florida gave a series of presentations in Brazil on the Fertilize 4 Life (F4L) Initiative at the end of September. The State Department's U.S. Speaker's Program sponsored his visit. His message was that the world needs to produce more food using fewer resources and reducing environmental problems. Dr. Dubeux pointed out that Brazil and the United States are major global producers with a long history of collaboration in agricultural research. He emphasized that the United States and Brazil need to supercharge this relationship to meet the challenges of global food insecurity and climate change and that the F4L Initiative is an ideal first step.   Japan: Japan 258th Food Safety Group Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) proposed revisions to Japan’s maximum residue levels for 9 agricultural chemicals (Chlorfluazuron, Fluxametamide, Isofetamid, 1-Methylcyclopropene, Quizalofop-ethyl and Quizalofop-P-tefuryl, Tebufenpyrad, Hydrocortisone, Mosapride, and Ethopabate) for various agricultural commodities. Interested U.S. parties should submit their comments to PlantDivision@usda.gov for plant products, TFAA.FAS.AnimalDivision@usda.gov for animal products, and PPTRD@usda.gov for processed products by October 11, 2023.   Netherlands: More Pears and Less Apples Expected in the Netherlands Dutch apple production is expected to be down by 12 percent while the pear harvest will increase by an estimated three percent. Unfavorable growing conditions in the beginning of the growing season resulted in lower yields for apples. The harvested acreage of apples is forecasted to drop to 5,550 hectares mainly due to disappointing profitability. The harvested pear acreage nearly totals 10,000 hectares and has been stable for the past four years. The most popular apple and pear varieties grown in the Netherlands are Elstar and Conference, respectively. At the same time there is a growing interest in producing club varieties. Organic production of apples (three percent) and pears (one percent) remains rather low. Dutch consumers have developed a preference for locally produced varieties. Dutch apples are almost all sold on the internal EU market while Dutch pears, along with the Belgian Conference variety, dominate EU pear exports. The leading pear export markets are Belarus and the UK.   South Africa: Intensifying Battle with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Leads to Egg Shortage and Possible Vaccination Program South Africa is currently facing the worst outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) since 2017 with seven of the nine provinces in the country reporting outbreaks. Although the latest government report indicates that 2.68 million chicks have been culled, the South African Poultry Association (SAPA) is reporting that number exceeds seven million birds since April 2023 and includes approximately five million layers and 2.5 million broilers. The government announced that containment measures to limit the spread of the disease may include vaccination against the relevant strains at select farms, although no specific implementation plan has been released. Namibia has imposed restrictions on South African poultry exports and South African government officials are considering options for increasing imports to avoid potential shortages. The following GAIN reports were released on October 10, 2023. _______   Pakistan: Pulses Outlook Peas, beans, and lentils are staple protein sources in the Pakistani diet. Eaten with either flat bread (daal-roti) or rice (daal-chaawal), the demand for these pulses is growing as inflation leads consumers to search for alternatives to animal protein. Imports are forecast to reach over 1 million tons next year, and opportunities exist for U.S. exporters.   United Kingdom: Food Service - Hotel Restaurant Institutional Following the end of the pandemic, the hospitality sector in the United Kingdom (UK) continues to face several challenges including a cost-of-living crisis and soaring inflation rates. UK hospitality businesses have shown themselves to be creative and resourceful. The hotel, restaurant and institutional (HRI) sector in the UK includes world-class restaurants, pubs, and nightclubs. This sector is at the heart of rebuilding the UK's major city centers and high streets as people return to the office. Health, sustainability, and technology are important trends to watch in the sector. The following GAIN reports were released on October 3, 2023. _______   Germany: Food Service - Hotel Restaurant Institutional With more than 83 million of the world’s wealthiest consumers, Germany is the largest market for food and agricultural products in the European Union. The German market offers good opportunities for U.S. exporters of consumer-oriented food products, particularly nuts, bakery products, organic products, hops and whiskey. The latter two saw a 30 to 35 percent increase in imports from the USA in 2022. Fresh fruit imports from the USA rose by 1,331 percent. German food service sales increased by 15.5 percent in 2022. The main reason being the end of COVID-19 restrictions., Despite the recovery, HRI spending is down 4.9 % from 2019 levels. Full-service restaurants continue to lead in consumer food service sales, cloud kitchens, meanwhile, have become the fastest growing type within the sector. Another sector trend is an increased preference for authentic regional cuisines.   Japan: Grain and Feed Update FAS/Tokyo estimates lower MY2023/24 rice production in Japan as extremely high temperatures and little rain are expected to lower yield and quality. Post forecasts softening corn prices will boost feed demand and imports in MY2023/24. FAS/Tokyo lowers MY2023/24 wheat imports based on higher production estimates and lower feed demand projection. FAS/Tokyo projects lower MY2023/24 barley imports on anticipated weaker feed demand.   Morocco: Food Service - Hotel Restaurant Institutional Morocco’s hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector consistently improved its strength in 2023, reflected in the surge of tourist arrivals. According to a Ministry of Tourism report, Morocco received 10.9 million tourists and registered a 75 percent increase compared to pre-pandemic levels. Implementation of the U.S.-Morocco Free Trade Agreement (FTA) led to ongoing elimination of numerous tariffs on consumer-oriented products. In 2023, tariffs on items such as lentils, sugar confections, and food preparations were completely phased out.   South Korea: Food Service - Hotel Restaurant Institutional In 2021 (latest data available), sales of the HRI food service sector reached 150.76 trillion KRW (131.7 billion USD), an increase of 7.77 percent from 2020 and an increase of 4.41 percent from 2019. Coping with the pandemic, Korea’s HRI food service sector has tried to adopt modern technologies and come up with strategies for safe and convenient dining experience to meet changing demand from consumers. Since pandemic related restrictions have been lifted and consumer demand for diverse food and dining options is increasing, it is expected that the HRI sector will show a constant growth though at a slow pace due to the sluggish local economy. The following GAIN reports were released on September 29, 2023. _______   Algeria: Grain and Feed Update Post maintains its estimate of Algeria’s wheat plated area at just over 2 million hectares for the entire country. For the MY 2024/25, Post projects production for wheat and barley to remain in line with the current MY of 2.7 million MT of wheat and 1.02 million MT of barley. Farmers will begin to sow MY 2024/25 wheat and barely fields at the end of September. So far, cumulative precipitation for this coming season is at the same level as in 2022. However, soil moisture charts, show moisture levels dipping to almost at the limit of the Min/Max level for Mediterranean coast. As such the onset of rains is crucial to help farmers start their plantings. Post maintains wheat imports estimate at 8.7 million metric tons for MY2023/24 based on lower harvest and increased import demand.   El Salvador: Food Service - Hotel Restaurant Institutional The Salvadoran Hotel and Restaurant sectors continue to improve their performance in 2022 as the tourism sector shows a full recovery. The latest statistics by Euromonitor show that Salvadorans increased their spending to $2.5 billion in the Hotels/Catering category during 2022. Recent data provided by the Minister of Tourism shows that El Salvador received 2.2 million foreign visitors as of August 2023, representing 25 percent more than in the same period of 2019. Income generated by tourism was $1.6 billion as of June 2023, and the tourism sector contributed about 10 percent to the GDP, which is double to what it contributed previous to the pandemic. For the first time, El Salvador registered 100,00 visitors from the United States, mainly Salvadorans returning to visit along with their second or third generations. Many from the diaspora have returned to invest by starting new hotel/restaurant operations in the eastern region of the country.   European Union: Poultry and Products Annual Driven by strong internal demand, EU chicken meat production is expected to grow in 2023 and 2024. In 2024, Poland will be again the largest EU chicken producer, accounting for more than 20 percent of all EU chicken production. The EU trade surplus in chicken meat is expected to slightly decrease in 2023 as the EU continues to import more chicken products from Ukraine. This trade is facilitated by the EU decision to temporarily suspend quotas and tariffs on Ukrainian imports. A boom in EU tourism is fueling import demand in the HRI sector. Conversely, EU chicken meat exports remain constrained by HPAI-related bans in some EU customer countries. The adverse impact on trade is prompting discussions on the future of HPAI vaccination policy.   Guatemala: Food Service - Hotel Restaurant Institutional The HRI report provides U.S. agricultural exporters current information on market trends and the best product prospects for the Guatemalan market. Guatemala is recovering from the effects of the pandemic and tourism reached 1.8 million visitors representing an increase of 177 percent from 2021. The Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional (HRI) sector represents 4.5 percent of the country’s GDP. Guatemalan consumers have returned to eating out looking for restaurants that can offer innovation in the gastronomic industry not only focusing on food preparation, but also on presentation, fusion cuisine, and the technology applied to food production processes.   Honduras: Food Service - Hotel Restaurant Institutional This is an overview of the food service industry in Honduras, encompassing the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sectors. It also discusses current market trends and the most promising product opportunities. In general, Hondurans enjoy eating out, both as a matter of convenience (mostly for those who work outside the home) and as a family trip on the weekends. Honduran families are increasingly selecting local and foreign fast-food franchises when selecting a restaurant. Inbound tourism has nearly entirely recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with 840 thousand overnight visitors arriving in Honduras in 2022, representing a 16.6 percent rise over 2019. All these sectors continue to adapt to labor shortages, changes in consumer behavior, and high food prices.   Hong Kong: The Hong Kong Wonton - Volume 3 Issue 19 Bite size local news, Post reports and activity summaries wrapped by ATO Hong Kong. In this issue: USA Pavilions Dazzle at Asia Fruit Logistica and Restaurant & Bar Trade Shows; “Night Vibes” Campaign Must be Affordable To Counter Residents Crossing the Border to Spend; Seafood Ban Goes Down Well with Most; Hong Kong Welcomes 4.1 Million Visitors in August; Definitely Bigger Than Vegas, Again: Macau; NWD and Disneyland join hands to transform Lantau Island into a 'Travel-tainment hub;' Gluten-Free: A Dietary Need or a Trend?; 300kg Cocaine in Chicken's Feet Fail to Pass Smell Test; Farmer Loses 100 Pigs to Flooding in Northern District; Import of Poultry Meat and Products from Areas in South Africa Suspended; Hong Kong Authorities Follow Up on Vegetables Imported from Japan Suspected of Breaching Food Safety Order; Oysters with Mislabeled Origin Intercepted at Airport.   Indonesia: Biofuels Annual The introduction of E5 gasoline in July 2023 restarted Indonesia’s bioethanol consumption after years of inactivity, albeit to a modest start of an estimated 2 million liters for 2023 due to E5’s price premium in a price sensitive market. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s new B35 biodiesel blending mandate reached nationwide coverage in August 2023 and is expected to raise biodiesel consumption 25 percent to 13 billion liters. The government of Indonesia (GOI) continues to carry out tests for renewable diesel (HDRD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).   Philippines: Philippine Bt Cotton - 4th GE Crop Approved for Commercial Propagation On August 24, 2023, the Philippines marked Bt cotton as the 4th genetically engineered crop approved for commercial propagation after corn (2002), rice (2021), and eggplant (2022). The Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) issued a Biosafety Permit for the commercial propagation of a Bt cotton trait (GFM cry1A) developed by the Philippine Fiber Industry Development Authority (PhilFIDA). Bt cotton replaces the need to control the bollworm through the application of synthetic chemical pesticides.   Philippines: Sugar Semi-annual FAS Manila adjusts marketing year (MY) 2024 raw sugar production down to 1.8 million metric tons, 100,000 metric tons (MT) below USDA Official. Declining sugarcane planting areas and weather disturbances including the ongoing El Niño are expected to affect sugar production. Post forecasts no sugar exports following the recent Sugar Order (SO) No. 1 allocating all production to domestic consumption. Post sees no raw sugar importation as the Philippines government seeks to protect local producers but forecasts refined sugar imports of 240,00 MT (257,000 MT raw equivalent) to stabilize consumer prices and provide two months of buffer stocks. This includes the 150,000 MT refined imports approved by President Marcos as stated in SO7. Consumption stays at 2.2 million MT as prices remain elevated.   South Africa: Food Service - Hotel Restaurant Institutional The hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) sector in South Africa is gradually beginning to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, but challenges remain due to frequent power outages, known as load shedding, and rampant food price inflation. In 2022, the South African food service industry brought in US$4.3 billion, an increase of over 20 percent from the previous year. Post contacts note a growing trend towards convenience foods, fast service restaurants, and takeaways. Also evident in the sector is the move towards providing healthier choices. The South African fast-food industry is highly developed and dominated by companies with many domestic and international outlets, supported by well-established and competitive franchising models and a well-developed network of industry associations. Post sees numerous market opportunities for American exports to the South African HRI sector.   Taiwan: Taiwan Upgrades Council of Agriculture to Ministry of Agriculture On August 1, 2023, Taiwan’s Council of Agriculture (COA) was transformed into the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA). MOA’s total workforce plans to increase from about 4,770 to 5,300 staff, and the administrative budget is expected to rise by TWD 8.3 billion (USD $260 million) to a total annual budget of TWD 158.9 billion (USD $5 billion). The key organizational changes are the creation of the Department of Animal Welfare and Department of Resource Sustainability and Utilization in MOA headquarters, and two affiliated agencies, Forestry Bureau and Soil and Water Conservation Bureau.   Thailand: Rice Price - Weekly Thailand’s export prices fell a further one percent as the Thai baht continues to weaken.   Turkiye: Oilseeds and Products Update MY 2023/24 sunflowerseed production is forecast at 1.6 million metric tons (MMT), which is down nearly 20 percent year-over-year because of drought-related losses in Thrace, Turkey’s leading sunflower producing region. An increase in imported sunflowerseed, a large share of which will likely come from Ukraine, is expected to offset the gap in production. Meantime, owing to large carryover stocks, sun oil imports are expected to fall below last year’s record to 1.2 MMT. Since the war started, imports of sun oil from Ukraine have surged, accounting for nearly 70 percent of Turkey’s sun oil imports in MY 2022/23 (Sep-Jul). A large share of the oil is refined and re-exported or transshipped.   Turkiye: Poultry and Products Annual Since the beginning of 2023, the Turkish Lira (TL) has weakened by around 20 percent against the U.S. dollar. Despite the economic turmoil, demand for chicken meat is relatively stable, even with expected increased poultry market prices in correlation with increasing inflation. This is due primarily to the fact that chicken meat is the cheapest protein source for the Turkish population. Production is forecast at 2.3 million metric tons (MMT) in calendar year (CY) 2024, just 2 percent higher than in 2023 due to forecast high feed prices, severe drought expectations, and struggles with supplies of breeding materials due to high import costs and/or HPAI cases which cause reduced production capacity. Türkiye does not import poultry meat since the sector is one the most well-established in the country. Exports in 2024 are forecast at 490,000 MT , assuming demand increases (especially from Iran). Despite increasing market prices, chicken consumption is forecast at 1.8 MMT in 2024.   For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.