Cluck, Cluck Hooray for National Chicken Month!

As fall approaches, September celebrates the most-consumed meat in the United States: chicken. Two-thirds of U.S. chicken are raised in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas. And did you know that U.S. chicken meat is also a top agricultural export for our nation?

Foreign markets are increasingly important to the U.S. chicken industry, accounting for $4.4 billion in exports and 16 percent of global production in 2022. The United States is the world's second-largest exporter, with more than 145 countries importing U.S. frozen chicken leg quarters, legs, and thighs last year.

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The following GAIN reports were released on September 11, 2023.

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Australia: Livestock and Products Annual

Australian beef supply is forecast to recover in 2024 to the point of reaching the sixth highest production on record. The 2024 forecast is after a significant turning point in 2023, where production is estimated to grow by 16 percent from the lows of 2021 and 2022 not seen for 25 years because of a strong herd rebuild phase restricting cattle supply for processing. Beef exports are forecast to reach the fourth highest on record in 2024 and regain some market share in three of its biggest Asian market destinations. Australian pork production is forecast to increase slightly in 2024 after strong growth in 2023. The rise in pork production is forecast to result in a slight increase in exports but lower than usual imports. Pork imports from the United States are expected to revert to past dominance of in excess of half of overall imports.

European Union: Oilseeds and Products Update

This report updates several sections of the European Union’s “Oilseeds and Products Annual” report released in April 2023. Updated sections include soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower. An area-increase of about 2 percent and increased average yields are forecast to result in a 6 percent higher production of total three major oilseeds in MY 2023/24. Compared to the previous MY, where heat and drought significantly reduced yields of especially late crops, soybean production is forecast to be over 16 percent up, sunflower production 12 percent up, and rapeseed production almost 2 percent up.

India: India Imposes a 20 Percent Export Duty on Parboiled Rice and Reviews Basmati Rice's Minimum Export Prices

On August 25, 2023, India’s Ministry of Finance issued Notification No. 49/2023 (Customs), notifying with immediate effect that the Indian government is imposing a 20 percent export duty on parboiled non-basmati rice (PNB), harmonized tariff system (HS) code 1006.30.10. This notification highlights the Indian government’s attempt, through a series of restrictive export control measures, to control rising domestic food prices.

Japan: Poultry and Products Annual

FAS/Tokyo forecasts Japan’s chicken production will rise in 2024 to meet strong demand led by tourist consumption in the foodservice sector. Increased chicken imports are needed to replenish depleted 2023 ending stocks.

Japan: USJTA Treatment for Fresh and Frozen Vegetables 2023

The U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement (USJTA) entered Year 5 of the agreement implementation on April 1, 2023. This report is one in a series of product briefs highlighting the tariff benefits for specific commodities and products from Year 5 (2023) to Year 7 (2025) of the Agreement. Additional information is available at www.usdajapan.org/usjta/.

Japan: USJTA Treatment for Pulses 2023

Japan: USJTA Treatment for Vegetable Preparations and Juice 2023

Poland: Poland Officially Free from Avian Influenza

On August 2, 2023, Poland regained the status of a country officially free from Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). In 2023, 48 commercial poultry farms and 12 backyard farms were infected with HPAI, located in nine Polish provinces. HPAI outbreaks led to culling of over one million birds. Slaughter duck farms and slaughter turkey farms were the most impacted, accounting for almost 70 percent of HPAI-culled birds. HPAI-free status will allow Poland to resume exports of poultry meat to non-European markets, which were restricted when the disease was present in the country.

Ukraine: Livestock and Products Annual

Ukraine’s cattle inventory is expected to remain on its historical downward trend in 2023 and 2024. Exports of live cattle and beef will remain strong as lower disposable incomes result in decreased domestic demand. The major destination markets for Ukraine's livestock and beef products will remain the same, with North African and Middle Eastern countries being importers of live cattle and China being a major importer of beef. A significant pork price increase that started in 2022 and accelerated in 2023 inspired domestic production as pork imports became expensive for price-sensitive Ukrainian processors. Increased production is expected to nearly compensate for the import drop and remain high in 2024 as pork prices show no sign of decline in 2023. The EU is expected to remain the major exporter of pork to Ukraine. Ukraine is not a major exporter of pork. African Swine Fever is present in various regions making long-term export perspectives unclear.

For more information, or for an archive of all FAS GAIN reports, please visit gain.fas.usda.gov/.

World Agricultural Production

Monthly report on crop acreage, yield and production in major countries worldwide. Sources include reporting from FAS’s worldwide offices, official statistics of foreign governments, and analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

Current Report
Past Reports (USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System)

Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade

This monthly report includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in oilseeds. Covers oilseeds (copra, cottonseed, palm kernel, peanut, rapeseed, soybean and sunflower seed), meal (copra, cottonseed, fish, palm kernel, peanut, rapeseed, soybean and sunflower seed) and oil (coconut, cottonseed, olive, palm, palm kernel, peanut, rapeseed, soybean and sunflower seed).

Current Report
Past Reports (USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System)

Cotton: World Markets and Trade

This monthly report includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in cotton.

Current Report
Past Reports (USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System)

Grain: World Markets and Trade

This monthly report includes data on U.S. and global trade, production, consumption and stocks, as well as analysis of developments affecting world trade in grains. Covers wheat, rice and coarse grains (corn, barley, sorghum, oats and rye).

Current Report
Past Reports (USDA Economics, Statistics and Market Information System)

China: Oilseeds and Products Update

Soybean imports are raised to a record 101 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 22/23 on surging imports, which reached 84.3 MMT through July. Soybean imports for MY 23/24 are maintained at 98.5 MMT on higher domestic production and higher stocks following MY 22/23 imports. Heavy rainfalls associated with two typhoons in late July and early August largely spared key producing regions and minimal impact on soybean production is estimated. Following a sharp production decline in MY 22/23, elevated prices are expected to support increased interest in peanut production.

India: Cotton and Products Update

FAS Mumbai forecasts marketing year (MY) 2023/24 India cotton production at 26 million 480 lb. bales on 12.7 million hectares area planted, unchanged from the previous report. Yields are expected to be marginally higher than last year as farmers improve their integrated pest management practices. Farmers in southern states have shifted to paddy and oilseeds planting due to higher price expectations. Post forecasts MY 2023/24 mill consumption and export demand to remain weak as fiber and yarn prices fall from record highs last year. Higher exportable surplus will likely limit mills to import much smaller volumes in the new marketing year.

India: Livestock and Products Annual

FAS New Delhi (Post) in market year 2024 (January-December) forecasts India’s national cattle herd growing to 307.6 million head, up by some 135 thousand head from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) official 2023 estimate of 307.5 million head. Post attributes the slight increase in cattle herd numbers to the calf crop growing in 2024 to 70.4 million head, up by 300 thousand head compared to the USDA official 2023 estimate of 70.1 million head. Post forecast India’s 2024 meat production (i.e., carabeef, derived from Asian domestic water buffaloes) at 4.55 million metric tons (MMT) on a carcass-weight-equivalent (CWE) basis, up over two percent compared to the USDA official 2023 production estimate figure of 4.44 MT. All data reported herein is in CWE. The marginal increase from the USDA official figure is due to a foreseen uptick in 2024 slaughter numbers. FAS New Delhi forecasts India’s 2024 carabeef exports at 1.50 MMT, up two percent compared to the USDA official 2023 estimate of 1.47 MMT.

India: Oilseeds and Products Update

India’s soybean oilseed and rapeseed production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) increased to 12.4 and 11.8 million metric tons (MMT) respectively due to favorable weather conditions. However, for MY 2023/2024, there is an expectation of a deteriorating weather pattern due to El Nino that could lower production estimates for both soybean and rapeseed to 11.9 and 11.2 MMT respectively. India’s export of soybean meal is estimated to increase to 18 MMT due to the demand for high protein content. Additionally, rapeseed meal export is estimated to rise by 4 percent owing to good harvest and demand from the neighboring Southeast Asian countries. India’s edible oil import has increased exponentially for the current MY compared to MY 2021/22. Crude palm oil remains the primarily consumed edible oil with record imports from Indonesia and Malaysia estimated at 10.5 MMT for MY 2022/23.

India: FSSAI Notifies on Definition of Single Malt and Single Grain Whiskey

On August 21, 2023, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare/Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) published the Food Safety and Standards (Alcoholic Beverages) First Amendment Regulations 2023 in the Gazette of India (Notification No. STD/SP-21/T(Alcohol-4). The amendments introduce new definitions of single malt whiskey and single grain whiskey, and a clause mandating that no alcoholic beverage shall contain nutritional information on the label.

South Korea: Poultry and Products Annual

Post forecasts a rebound in Korean poultry production for 2024, surmounting 2023 supply challenges to meet rising consumer demand for chicken meat. Post has revised the 2023 production estimate down to 930,000 MT and forecasts 2024 production will increase to 945,000 MT. Since lifting COVID-19 restrictions in late 2022, Korea’s chicken demand has increased as social activities resumed and restaurants reopened. However, domestic chicken production in 2023 was hampered by decreased parental stock broiler productivity and high production costs. At the end of 2023, Korea is expected to end its recent import policy of increasing chicken tariff rate quotas to fill the chicken supply shortfall and stabilize food prices.

Thailand: Poultry and Products Annual

FAS Bangkok estimates Thailand’s chicken meat production to marginally increase in 2023 amid a surge in exports, a slow recovery in the tourism sector and high feed costs. Post forecasts chicken meat production will further slow down in 2024 in line with chicken meat exports and a slow recovery in domestic consumption.

Turkey: Livestock and Products Annual

Türkiye’s cattle inventories are forecast to contract in 2024 for the fourth straight year as farmers continue marketing their underweight animals ahead of schedule to minimize losses from rising input costs, especially feed. Higher slaughter numbers are projected to push beef production upward to nearly 1.7 million metric tons in 2024. However, even with this increase, beef demand will continue to outpace production, putting upward pressure on retail beef prices. Meantime, a kilogram of ground beef in August of this year is selling for 300 Turkish Lira per kilogram ($11.35/kg), more than 2.5 times than last year. To alleviate high beef prices, the Turkish government has temporarily authorized imports of feeder cattle and beef. However, these interventions have not yet provided meaningful relief to consumers.